Bitcoin Forum
October 15, 2019, 10:53:59 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 0.18.1 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Warning: One or more bitcointalk.org users have reported that they strongly believe that the creator of this topic is a scammer. (Login to see the detailed trust ratings.) While the bitcointalk.org administration does not verify such claims, you should proceed with extreme caution.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 »  All
  Print  
Author Topic: Proving that my gambling script works.  (Read 1513 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic.
alia
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 56
Merit: 113

Lowest EVER interest lending! (Use escrow always)


View Profile
March 01, 2018, 02:03:10 PM
Last edit: March 06, 2018, 01:03:53 AM by alia
 #1

I was once selling a gambling script (for which I received a lot of backlash) and was called a scammer. I am saying that it is profitable in the short run - people do not believe me.

Every day, for the next 10 days, starting from 12:10 AM UTC, I will use the script.

1 bit will be wagered on Bustabit and 3 bits will be wagered on Cryptobust. You can follow along daily, since the times have been set in stone, and will not change. You can even watch me play, if you wish to do so. I will screen record each run through and post it here.

Note: I am no longer selling the script, I just want to prove people wrong.

Anyway, the aim for each run will be a 20% ROI. I recommend 5-10% ROI with the script, but 20% will be my aim each time. As I stated previously, the script usually works 9/10 times or more. So, I will be running it a grand total of 20 times (once on each site daily).

If the script does not yield 20% ROI 18 times out of 20, I will admit that I "lied", and will leave the forum. I will also send a few bits to people who warned against me.

If the script yields 20% ROI 18 times out of 20 (or more)... well, then I guess my point has been proven.

We will see. You shall all see.

PS: If you have mathematically sound reasoning below, your post shall stay. If you have words of encouragement, the post will stay. If I lose more than 2 times and you want to roast me, the post will stay.

If you insult me for no reason, I will delete your post. If you spam irrelevant stuff here, I will delete your post. Trolls, please return if I lose (aka not happening)

Follow the progress here: https://www.bustabit.com/user/makealiagreatagain

Note that the real bets are in decimals but Bustabit only shows integers.

Day 1 - 24% ROI

Day 2 - 37% ROI

Day 3 (part 1) - -100% ROI

Day 3 (part 2) - 37% ROI

Lowest interest lending in bitcointalk history. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2846750.0
1571180039
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1571180039

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1571180039
Reply with quote  #2

1571180039
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1571180039
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1571180039

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1571180039
Reply with quote  #2

1571180039
Report to moderator
1571180039
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1571180039

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1571180039
Reply with quote  #2

1571180039
Report to moderator
chris200x9
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1316
Merit: 1011


View Profile
March 01, 2018, 02:08:24 PM
 #2

What is the point to open this thread?

If you make a regular profit from gambling then I don't believe it because if that is true then you wouldn't have opened this thread to tell it to the public but you would have been busy in collecting profit every day.

alia
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 56
Merit: 113

Lowest EVER interest lending! (Use escrow always)


View Profile
March 01, 2018, 02:16:31 PM
 #3

What is the point to open this thread?

If you make a regular profit from gambling then I don't believe it because if that is true then you wouldn't have opened this thread to tell it to the public but you would have been busy in collecting profit every day.



The point is to clear my name in a public way. People think I was lying when I said I had a profitable gambling script - I was not.

I would not use this with my own funds, mainly because a 10% chance of loss is too risky for my risk appetite. I do use it for investor funds and take a cut, but naturally, I keep this low, because the chance of losses are real. However, in the short term, profits are always guaranteed as long as you keep the ROI low. I will prove this in a manner that is entirely provably fair.

Lowest interest lending in bitcointalk history. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2846750.0
Luxo42
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 122
Merit: 22


View Profile
March 01, 2018, 03:32:53 PM
Merited by Patatas (2)
 #4

If the script does not yield 20% ROI 18 times out of 20, I will admit that I "lied", and will leave the forum. I will also send a few bits to people who warned against me.
If the script yields 20% ROI 18 times out of 20 (or more)... well, then I guess my point has been proven.
18 times of 20 is 90%. ROI - 20%. Expected value is 1.08. There's a chance of 92.5% to reach so easy target without using any scripts. So, you would not prove anything.
suchmoon
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2100
Merit: 4088


Pedal-powered plaguebot


View Profile
March 01, 2018, 03:58:41 PM
Merited by LoyceV (1)
 #5

I will be running it a grand total of 20 times (once on each site daily).

Can you bump this up to a more reasonable number, e.g. 20 million or so. Thanks.

RGBKey
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 854
Merit: 629


rgbkey.github.io/pgp.txt


View Profile WWW
March 01, 2018, 04:00:13 PM
Merited by Luxo42 (4), NLNico (3), DarkStar_ (2), lite (2), suchmoon (1), ibminer (1), o_e_l_e_o (1), nullius (1)
 #6

If the script does not yield 20% ROI 18 times out of 20, I will admit that I "lied", and will leave the forum. I will also send a few bits to people who warned against me.
If the script yields 20% ROI 18 times out of 20 (or more)... well, then I guess my point has been proven.
18 times of 20 is 90%. ROI - 20%. Expected value is 1.08. There's a chance of 92.5% to reach so easy target without using any scripts. So, you would not prove anything.

At a 1% house edge, which both of these sites have, the simple chance of 20% return is 82.5%. The chance of alia getting 18, 19, or 20 of these 82.5% chances in a group of 20 is as follows:



(For those unfamiliar, this uses the Binomial Distribution to find the chance of k successes out of 20 trials. Here we are interested in k=18, k=19, and k=20 so we sum those results).

This comes out to 0.294233 (rounded to the 6th decimal place), or 29.4233%.

So basically, the chance of alia's script working (according to the known laws of probability) are around 29.4%.

I have my doubts about the legitimacy of this because screen recordings can be faked, livestreams could have been pre-recorded and such, but I won't get any more into that in this post.

testingbits
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 97
Merit: 10


View Profile
March 01, 2018, 04:38:03 PM
 #7

The house always win
Quickseller
Copper Member
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1918
Merit: 1759



View Profile WWW
March 01, 2018, 04:53:37 PM
 #8

You should start with a larger bet. If you do, if you are right then you will have enough money so it won’t matter what anyone else thinks and can just retire.

Find the fire hydrant in my Avatar for a prize.
nullius
Copper Member
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 168
Merit: 783


Help! I’ve got the Pleurodelinaemia! @nym.zone


View Profile WWW
March 01, 2018, 04:58:58 PM
Last edit: March 01, 2018, 05:18:11 PM by nullius
 #9

Alia, I am open to the possibility that you sincerely believe what you are saying.  Please compare the following recent experience of mine, in a context not involving monetary gain or scam accusations.

It began in the Vanitygen thread, in Development & Technical Discussion.  (I linked to the post which led into the discussion; continue reading downthread.)  With no obvious material motive, Jude Austin (a Legendary!) claimed to have randomly found an address with funds on an imitator of directory.io.  Discussion ensued involving me, DannyHamilton, LoyceV, and dooglus on one side, and Jude Austin on the other.  Key points:


As for security, you will shit your pants, on btckey.space I found an address with funds, tho it was a small amount (transaction fee) it was completely random.


Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.

I suspect two possibilities:

1.  Neither the address, nor your search were properly random.

2. You are lying.



have some faith

Why can't you open your mind and believe?

Thanks, got it.  I have my own cult; I don’t need yours.

We are now far outside technical discussion and deep in kook territory.  I’m not interested in that, and neither am I interested in (further) derailing the Vanitygen thread.  Please leave this thread to discussion of Vanitygen and the generation of vanity addresses.

N.b. that Jude Austin spends his cycles on LBC, too.  From his posts, I infer that he passionately believes in the notion of finding address collisions.

Jude Austin subsequently began a thread in Technical Support titled, I found a collision. The hard part is proving it.  I did not participate in that thread, or even read it; life is too short.

Now, compare the title of your thread here:  “Proving that my gambling script works.”

The point is to clear my name in a public way. People think I was lying when I said I had a profitable gambling script - I was not.

It is possible that you could persuade people that you’re a kook instead of a scammer.  Attempting to empirically “prove” the mathematically impossible is not so different from writing university professors long e-mails with designs for perpetual motion machines, free energy devices, or a peculiar favourite of mine, recursive compressors.  I am not trying to insult you here:  That’s just how it is; and if you sincerely believe in your script, then you may not realize how others see this thread.  It looks like a good analogue for this:

One thing always came in my mind is a block are like a bus who pass every 10min. In real life the bus have theoric limited amount of seats (the 1mb limit analogy), but it possible to add more people in the bus with a little of additional work. or "compress" work

[...]

And in physics its possible to compress anything on a small limited volume, but that "compress" need always addition work according to the initial volume. (Black holes for example)

So my theory is if it is possibile to find an algorythm that do the same thing but with data and information. Giving an arbitrary large file, is it possible mathematically to compress it to a limit less 1Mb.

What an excellent idea!!  May I ask a humble question, maybe to improve your genius.  Why not feed the output of the compression program back into the compression program recursively?  You could compress the whole blockchain to be printed in a QR code for backup!  Or even the whole Internet!

Possible prior art:  WEB compressor, U.S. Patent 5,533,051, U.S. Patent 5,488,364, etc.  Tell me, is your method patented??

(Forum, please forgive me.  I never had the pleasure of suffering these in comp.compression.)

Loading image TooManyPigeons.jpg...

It is also possible that this be your run-up to some future attempt to sell the script again, or otherwise profit from mathematically impossible claims about games of chance.  If you were to do that, such would conclusively show your motives.

Now, a question which is sensitive, but must be asked:  Somewhere in your post history, I saw you describe yourself as a “degen” in matters of gambling.  (Don’t take that as an insult:  You said it.)  I am asking you a reasonable question, not to attack you:  Are you fixated on the idea of a winning script?  Many gamblers become obsessed with similar ideas.

I am posting partly for the purpose of saying what I say, and partly to see whether you sincerely wish to challenge in open discourse the people who tell you that what you claim is mathematically impossible.  Some of them are gambling experts (which I am not), who have crunched numbers specifically about the game you are playing.  I have reviewed their arguments.  What they say is sound.  What you claim is not, to make an understatement.  Whereupon I myself am more interested in really knowing why you’re doing this.

Maum
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 251
Merit: 105


View Profile
March 01, 2018, 05:41:28 PM
 #10

It is impossible on mathematics. But if a gambling site is not fair, it tends to let win at beginning. I experienced that on many gambling sites. At beginning I won with my strategy and as soon as I wagered higher amounts, I lost. So if he is talking about winnings on short term run, he could be right on certain sites.
Wendigo
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2170
Merit: 1031



View Profile
March 01, 2018, 05:44:10 PM
 #11

What is the point to open this thread?

If you make a regular profit from gambling then I don't believe it because if that is true then you wouldn't have opened this thread to tell it to the public but you would have been busy in collecting profit every day.



The point is to clear my name in a public way. People think I was lying when I said I had a profitable gambling script - I was not.

I would not use this with my own funds, mainly because a 10% chance of loss is too risky for my risk appetite. I do use it for investor funds and take a cut, but naturally, I keep this low, because the chance of losses are real. However, in the short term, profits are always guaranteed as long as you keep the ROI low. I will prove this in a manner that is entirely provably fair.

You are scared to use your own working script with your own funds? You are contradicting yourself mighty fine here dude. I suggest you up the ante to BTC0.1 per bet. After all you asked for upwards of 1 Bitcoin per investor for 'bigger gains'. 1-3 bits won't cut it  Wink
milewilda
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1442
Merit: 1040



View Profile
March 01, 2018, 07:30:29 PM
 #12

What is the point to open this thread?

If you make a regular profit from gambling then I don't believe it because if that is true then you wouldn't have opened this thread to tell it to the public but you would have been busy in collecting profit every day.



The point is to clear my name in a public way. People think I was lying when I said I had a profitable gambling script - I was not.

I would not use this with my own funds, mainly because a 10% chance of loss is too risky for my risk appetite. I do use it for investor funds and take a cut, but naturally, I keep this low, because the chance of losses are real. However, in the short term, profits are always guaranteed as long as you keep the ROI low. I will prove this in a manner that is entirely provably fair.

You are scared to use your own working script with your own funds? You are contradicting yourself mighty fine here dude. I suggest you up the ante to BTC0.1 per bet. After all you asked for upwards of 1 Bitcoin per investor for 'bigger gains'. 1-3 bits won't cut it  Wink
BTC0.1 per bet is somehow a very convincing thing for him to use into his bets. 1-3 bits is just good for trial basis.If it does work then go directly with bigger bets so that people would really be convinced but we do all the know the reality of gambling no matter how good the script is,sooner or later that thing will bust up no matter what 20% on bankroll is achievable not because of script but on your pure luck.

.BitDice.               ▄▄███▄▄
           ▄▄██▀▀ ▄ ▀▀██▄▄
      ▄▄█ ▀▀  ▄▄█████▄▄  ▀▀ █▄▄
  ▄▄██▀▀     ▀▀ █████ ▀▀     ▀▀██▄▄
██▀▀ ▄▄██▀      ▀███▀      ▀██▄▄ ▀▀██
██  ████▄▄       ███       ▄▄████  ██
██  █▀▀████▄▄  ▄█████▄  ▄▄████▀▀█  ██
██  ▀     ▀▀▀███████████▀▀▀     ▀  ██
             ███████████
██  ▄     ▄▄▄███████████▄▄▄     ▄  ██
██  █▄▄████▀▀  ▀█████▀  ▀▀████▄▄█  ██
██  ████▀▀       ███       ▀▀████  ██
██▄▄ ▀▀██▄      ▄███▄      ▄██▀▀ ▄▄██
  ▀▀██▄▄     ▄▄ █████ ▄▄     ▄▄██▀▀
      ▀▀█ ▄▄  ▀▀█████▀▀  ▄▄ █▀▀
           ▀▀██▄▄ ▀ ▄▄██▀▀
               ▀▀███▀▀
        ▄▄███████▄▄
     ▄███████████████▄
    ████▀▀       ▀▀████
   ████▀           ▀████
   ████             ████
   ████ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ████
▄█████████████████████████▄
██████████▀▀▀▀▀▀▀██████████
████                   ████
████                   ████
████                   ████
████                   ████
████                   ████
████▄                 ▄████
████████▄▄▄     ▄▄▄████████
  ▀▀▀█████████████████▀▀▀
        ▀▀▀█████▀▀▀
▄▄████████████████████████████████▄▄
██████████████████████████████████████
█████                            █████
█████                            █████
█████                            █████
█████                            █████
█████                     ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
█████                   ▄█▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀█▄
█████                   ██          ██
█████                   ██          ██
█████                   ██          ██
██████████████████▀▀███ ██          ██
 ████████████████▄  ▄██ ██          ██
   ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██          ██
             ██████████ ██          ██
           ▄███████████ ██████▀▀██████
          █████████████  ▀████▄▄████▀
[/]
piloder
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 966
Merit: 1006



View Profile
March 01, 2018, 08:29:21 PM
 #13

Ok keep us updated about your stats than  Grin
To earn that 20% ROI per day you might have to risk all you have because I am also one of the guy who never believes on gambling script or strategy.

.FORTUNE.JACK.
      ▄▄███████▄▄
   ▄████▀▀ ▄ ██████▄
  ████ ▄▄███ ████████
 █████▌▐███▌ ▀▄ ▀█████
███████▄██▀▀▀▀▄████████
█████▀▄▄▄▄█████████████
████▄▄▄▄ █████████████
 ██████▌ ███▀████████
  ███████▄▀▄████████
   ▀█████▀▀███████▀
      ▀▀██████▀▀
         
         █
...FortuneJack.com                                             
...THE BIGGEST BITCOIN GAMBLING SITE
       ▄▄█████████▄▄
    ▄█████████████████▄
  ▄█████████████████████▄
 ▄██
█████████▀███████████▄
██████████▀   ▀██████████
█████████▀       ▀█████████
████████           ████████
████████▄   ▄ ▄   ▄████████
██████████▀   ▀██████████
 ▀██
█████████████████████▀
  ▀██
███████████████████▀
    ▀█████████████████▀
       ▀▀█████████▀▀
#JACKMATE
WIN 1 BTC
▄█████████████████████████▄
███████████████████████████
███████████████████████████
██████████▀█████▀██████████
███████▀░░▀░░░░░▀░░▀███████
██████▌░░░░░░░░░░░░░▐██████
██████░░░░██░░░██░░░░██████
█████▌░░░░▀▀░░░▀▀░░░░▐█████
██████▄░░▄▄▄░░░▄▄▄░░▄██████
████████▄▄███████▄▄████████

███████████████████████████
███████████████████████████
▀█████████████████████████▀
nullius
Copper Member
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 168
Merit: 783


Help! I’ve got the Pleurodelinaemia! @nym.zone


View Profile WWW
March 01, 2018, 09:25:25 PM
 #14

If it does work then go directly with bigger bets so that people would really be convinced...

Sorry to cut this quote in half; I will show where you were correct by the end.  But first, I want to highlight the problem here.

Many people’s eyes glaze over when they see equations; so I will snip those beautiful equations, and cut everything down to “money quotes” (so to speak):

If the script does not yield 20% ROI 18 times out of 20, I will admit that I "lied", and will leave the forum. I will also send a few bits to people who warned against me.

If the script yields 20% ROI 18 times out of 20 (or more)... well, then I guess my point has been proven.

The chance of alia getting 18, 19, or 20 of these 82.5% chances in a group of 20 is...

[Correct mathematical calculation.]

This comes out to 0.294233 (rounded to the 6th decimal place), or 29.4233%.

So basically, the chance of alia's script working (according to the known laws of probability) are around 29.4%.

Otherwise stated:  A user with a ruined reputation has a 29.4% chance of “proving” that the script works—told you so!—and a 70.6% chance of doing what was probably going to happen anyway.

That’s about midway between betting on a die roll, and betting on a coin flip.  For a person with nothing left to lose here, it is close to a ⅓ chance of (imagined) instant redemption!  Not a bad bet for someone who managed to get red-tagged by theymos himself.

What is the point to open this thread?

For a 29.4% chance of winning trust based on pure luck, with the downside risk limited to a grand total0 of 0.00004 BTC = 4000 satoshis (plus some unspecified “few bits”)!

Every day, for the next 10 days, starting from 12:10 AM UTC, I will use the script.

1 bit will be wagered on Bustabit and 3 bits will be wagered on Cryptobust.

Whereas:

...but we do all the know the reality of gambling no matter how good the script is,sooner or later that thing will bust up no matter what 20% on bankroll is achievable not because of script but on your pure luck.

Exactly.



Yet notwithstanding the foregoing, I still entertain the notion that a winning script may be Alia’s idée fixe.  Consider here the argument set forth in Alia’s negative trust feedback for RGBKey (2018-02-27):

Quote from: alia
Lying in my trust rating about a thread I made, spreading false information. Nothing can predict the future, and this was made clear in my thread - apparently it did not get into this person's head. I requested spam and questions to be directed to my PMs, this person clearly did not get the memo. Stay far away.

Proof of exactly what I said: https://gyazo.com/807f3e327ad66cfe191f6c7fd3dd0654?token=c07782fe2d0e87b3e786dfd42ba316ee

Further explanation:

You are absolutely right. However, in my experience, there are sections of games that are clearly different from one another. Quoting myself...

"Based on preceding games, the script can indicate (to a mathematical extent) what kind of games are about to come consequently. It is naturally not foolproof; but it can purely indicate."

Being a pure indication, these are generally unreliable, but can prove to be helpful. It is true that each game is individual and its odds are calculated individually, but if you think of games as sets of games, you can definitely see some mathematical odds. For example, there are 1-2 games with a 1000+x multiplier, but there has never been a game with two such games in a row. While the odds for a single game getting 1000x are (0.99/1000), the odds for two consecutive games hitting that are ((0.99/1000)^2). In the same way, let's think of a set of 10 games. The odds of all ten games busting above 1.1x are (0.9)^10 = ~35%. The odds of twenty games busting above 1.1x are (0.9)^20 = 12%. Thus, if 10 games bust above 1.1x, it can be reasonably assumed (as per the "gambler's fallacy") that the next ten games will probably have a bust below 1.1x. Naturally - this is a mathematical fallacy, because the odds of the ten games are calculated in an isolated fashion and are not involved with each other. However, in my practice and experience (while playing and tweaking the script), it has worked near-flawlessly, and I continue to make profit this way. Try it out yourself, if you don't believe me.


This user has no idea what he is talking about and remains a danger to the community if he continues to spread false trust ratings.

So, Alia states that “nothing can predict the future”.  Then advocates a method of predicting the future of a pseudorandom process.

And so, Alia admits that the script is based on a “mathematical fallacy”.  But in the next breath, “practice and experience” override the laws of mathematics.

Such blatant self-contradiction is oftentimes shown by those who are obsessed with an idea.  “Nothing can create free energy—and this was made clear in my thread.  However, I have here a machine which will run forever without any new energy input.  It is based on a physics fallacy; but practice and experience have shown me that it works.  Try it out yourself, if you don't believe me.”



For the non-gamblers like me who are unaccustomed to talk of games and “busting”, I have an analogy:

Alia outlines what I will here call a (fallacious) calculation over collective probabilities.  A (correct) example of such a calculation is Bitcoin’s difficulty adjustment.  The mining process is pseudorandom, a probabilistic search—a sort of gambling.  Difficulty is targeted such that on average, the time between blocks will be around 10 minutes.  Yet if you watch the blockchain, you will notice that the time between blocks is quite variable.

Due to the targeting at 10 minutes, you might expect “intuitively” that too-short times would be followed by too-long times.  Sometimes, by happenstance, that is what occurs.  But other times, not.  Sometimes, a block is mined very quickly, followed by another block mined very quickly.  Sometimes, the opposite.  Sometimes, neither.

The only (almost-)true prediction1 which could be made from this is that over the course of many blocks, assuming constant global hashrate, the average of block generation times will be close to 10 minutes.  This is analogous to predicting that over the course of many games, “ROI” will be close to -1% (the house edge).  The former won’t even be exactly 10 minutes, and the latter won’t be exactly -1% (negative one percent), because the processes are probabilistic.

Whereas what Alia claims this script to do is tantamount to claiming that you can semi-accurately predict the next block generation time based on the past few block generation times.  Um, no.  Try this concept for free:  Watch the blockchain, and try to guess about how long it will take the next block to come in.  Sometimes, by pure luck, you will come close with your prediction.  But mostly, you will just find the experience very frustrating.


0. Here interpreting “bit” per BIP 176 as 0.000001 BTC = 100 satoshis.

1. Actually, I stated the matter somewhat backwards:  The difficulty adjustment is done every 2016 blocks retrospectively, by looking at how far away from the desired 10-minute target the past 2016 blocks’ average comes out to.  But this is only necessary due to changes in global hash rate; and I here oversimplify by omitting all discussion of fluctuations in hash rate.  If hash rate were constant, then you could reasonably make a forward-looking prediction that the next n block generation times would average out to about 10 minutes—for any large enough n.  Also then, difficulty adjustment would never be required.

o_e_l_e_o
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 714
Merit: 2891


Decent


View Profile
March 01, 2018, 10:40:26 PM
Last edit: March 01, 2018, 10:53:41 PM by o_e_l_e_o
Merited by NLNico (3)
 #15

If the script does not yield 20% ROI 18 times out of 20, I will admit that I "lied", and will leave the forum. I will also send a few bits to people who warned against me.
If the script yields 20% ROI 18 times out of 20 (or more)... well, then I guess my point has been proven.
18 times of 20 is 90%. ROI - 20%. Expected value is 1.08. There's a chance of 92.5% to reach so easy target without using any scripts. So, you would not prove anything.

At a 1% house edge, which both of these sites have, the simple chance of 20% return is 82.5%. The chance of alia getting 18, 19, or 20 of these 82.5% chances in a group of 20 is as follows:



(For those unfamiliar, this uses the Binomial Distribution to find the chance of k successes out of 20 trials. Here we are interested in k=18, k=19, and k=20 so we sum those results).

This comes out to 0.294233 (rounded to the 6th decimal place), or 29.4233%.

So basically, the chance of alia's script working (according to the known laws of probability) are around 29.4%.

I have my doubts about the legitimacy of this because screen recordings can be faked, livestreams could have been pre-recorded and such, but I won't get any more into that in this post.



It is also worth pointing out that 20 runs is statistical noise.

I set up a contigency table, played with the numbers and ran some chi-squared tests on them. I calculated for a p-value of 0.05 (This means that the results we achieve would be achieved by random chance 5% of the time i.e. we are 95% confident the script is working as advertised. This is a common minimum standard required across most fields of scientific.)

Even if the script could completely eliminate the house edge (which it can't), we would need around 6000 runs to obtain a p-value of <0.05. If the script could half the house edge from 1% to 0.5%, we would need around 23000 runs to obtain a p-value of <0.05.

nullius
Copper Member
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 168
Merit: 783


Help! I’ve got the Pleurodelinaemia! @nym.zone


View Profile WWW
March 01, 2018, 11:15:09 PM
 #16

It is also worth pointing out that 20 runs is statistical noise.

I set up a contigency table, played with the numbers and ran some chi-squared tests on them. I calculated for p-value of 0.05 (This means that the results we achieve would be achieved by random chance 5% of the time i.e. we are 95% confident the script is working as advertised. This is a common minimum standard required across most fields of scientific research.)

Even if the script could completely eliminate the house edge (which it can't), we would need around 6000 runs to obtain a p-value of <0.05. If the script could half the house edge from 1% to 0.5%, we would need around 23000 runs to obtain a p-value of <0.05.

Excellent point, o_e_l_e_o.  Curiously, 23000 runs is well within the realm of affordability for an experiment with the level of wagers Alia proposed:

1 bit will be wagered on Bustabit and 3 bits will be wagered on Cryptobust.

Code:
$ bc -l
4 * 23000 / 1000000
.09200000000000000000

Surely, to prove her point, Alia could put up <0.1 BTC for 23000 runs on each site, at the wagers she stated.  Moreover, to avoid any doubt, the experiment should be performed by a trustworthy person who PGP-signs an NDA agreeing not to disclose the script unless either it fails to perform as advertised, or it is found to contain any illegal material.  Skeptical investigators’ experiments always take such reasonable precautions.

I began writing a longer post about this, even thinking to offer to put up 0.0092 BTC (10% of the total) for this experiment.  But then I realized, that would only prove with confidence of p < 0.05 that the script could halve the house edge.  That is:  It would prove with >95% certainty that the script could cut your long-term gambling losses in half.  What about profit?

Say, how many runs would be required to obtain p < 0.05 confidence that the script can generate a 5% profit across many runs?  That is a modest “ROI”, at the low end of Alia’s claims.

Please do not insult Alia by suggesting that she prove only that the script can cut losses in half!  Who would want a winning script which only loses less?

alia
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 56
Merit: 113

Lowest EVER interest lending! (Use escrow always)


View Profile
March 01, 2018, 11:24:03 PM
 #17

I'm really not interested in the mathematical mumbo jumbo... all I care about is proving that the script works.

I have gotten 1 bit on Bustabit and am running the script.

Fyi, in case nobody knows maths - whether I play with 1 bit, 0.1 btc or 1 btc makes no difference. I'm looking at ROI here.

And I will no longer post a screen recording, I will just send you my account link.

Yeah, maybe the maths says I am crazy, but this has worked for me before and I vehemently believe it will continue to work for me

Lowest interest lending in bitcointalk history. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2846750.0
Astargath
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1246
Merit: 634


View Profile
March 01, 2018, 11:26:03 PM
 #18

I'm really not interested in the mathematical mumbo jumbo... all I care about is proving that the script works.

I have gotten 1 bit on Bustabit and am running the script.

Fyi, in case nobody knows maths - whether I play with 1 bit, 0.1 btc or 1 btc makes no difference. I'm looking at ROI here.

And I will no longer post a screen recording, I will just send you my account link.

Yeah, maybe the maths says I am crazy, but this has worked for me before and I vehemently believe it will continue to work for me

Yeah fuck math. However anyone that claims they have a winning script/strategy but want to sell it makes little sense to me. Wouldn't you be able to just get rich using it? What is the point of selling it?
Quickseller
Copper Member
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1918
Merit: 1759



View Profile WWW
March 02, 2018, 12:00:57 AM
 #19

I'm really not interested in the mathematical mumbo jumbo... all I care about is proving that the script works.

I have gotten 1 bit on Bustabit and am running the script.

Fyi, in case nobody knows maths - whether I play with 1 bit, 0.1 btc or 1 btc makes no difference. I'm looking at ROI here.

And I will no longer post a screen recording, I will just send you my account link.

Yeah, maybe the maths says I am crazy, but this has worked for me before and I vehemently believe it will continue to work for me
You should start with a larger bet. If you do, if you are right then you will have enough money so it won’t matter what anyone else thinks and can just retire.
Don't try to address this Roll Eyes

Find the fire hydrant in my Avatar for a prize.
DarkStar_
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 1484
Merit: 2036


https://bitcoin.watfordfc.com


View Profile WWW
March 02, 2018, 12:30:39 AM
 #20

I'm really not interested in the mathematical mumbo jumbo... all I care about is proving that the script works.

I have gotten 1 bit on Bustabit and am running the script.

Fyi, in case nobody knows maths - whether I play with 1 bit, 0.1 btc or 1 btc makes no difference. I'm looking at ROI here.

And I will no longer post a screen recording, I will just send you my account link.

Yeah, maybe the maths says I am crazy, but this has worked for me before and I vehemently believe it will continue to work for me

It does make a difference, in mental mindset. The only reason you aren't going higher is because you know/expect it to not work, and do not want to lose money.

Someone testing a method with a few cents? Snooze. Someone testing a method with a few thousand dollars? I might take them more seriously. (or think that they are dumber)

Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 »  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!