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Author Topic: Proof BTC has a way to go - NOT considered a safe haven  (Read 2676 times)
bitcola
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July 20, 2011, 11:58:33 AM
 #1

Although the bitcoin lovers claim that one of the benefits of BTC is as a safe haven for your money, recent days events have no proved that.

While gold and swiss Francs have climbed, just look at BTC. Still hovering around the 13-14 mark. It's definitely not a safe haven currency yet and the lack of movement means I'm putting off using it as one e.g. hedge against the euro.
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July 20, 2011, 12:01:03 PM
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While gold and swiss Francs have climbed, just look at BTC. Still hovering around the 13-14 mark. It's definitely not a safe haven currency yet and the lack of movement means I'm putting off using it as one e.g. hedge against the euro.


Lack of movement! EVIL!

Too much movement! EVIL!

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July 20, 2011, 12:02:47 PM
 #3

To be fair, BTC isn't really an investment used by investors. It's still a toy used by geeks, even our BTC speculators are just geeks with money to play with.
defxor
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July 20, 2011, 12:06:28 PM
 #4

While gold and swiss Francs have climbed

Climbed compared to what? My time? Moondust? Barbie dolls? USD?

Different things are important to different people. On the list of why I value BTC "safe haven" isn't even in the top 10 Smiley
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July 20, 2011, 12:22:36 PM
 #5

Although the bitcoin lovers claim that one of the benefits of BTC is as a safe haven for your money, recent days events have no proved that.

While gold and swiss Francs have climbed, just look at BTC. Still hovering around the 13-14 mark. It's definitely not a safe haven currency yet and the lack of movement means I'm putting off using it as one e.g. hedge against the euro.


In the past year gold has increased in value for 1 oz. from about $1160 to $1500 or so, an increase of about 30%.

In the past year a Swiss Franc has increased in value for 1 CHF from about $0.97 to about $1.20, an increase of about 24%.

In the past year bitcoin has increased in value for 1 BTC from about $0.005 to $14, an increase of about 280,000%.

Of course, the past is not a reliable guide for future investment, so do what you think is best.
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July 20, 2011, 01:11:57 PM
 #6

To be fair, BTC isn't really an investment used by investors. It's still a toy used by geeks, even our BTC speculators are just geeks with money to play with.

this is just not true.
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July 20, 2011, 01:14:13 PM
 #7


While gold and swiss Francs have climbed, just look at BTC. Still hovering around the 13-14 mark. It's definitely not a safe haven currency yet and the lack of movement means I'm putting off using it as one e.g. hedge against the euro.


Lack of movement! EVIL!

Too much movement! EVIL!

Not stable enough to be a currency!  EVIL!
Not volatile enough to be a currency!  EVIL!
Everywhere i see EVIL!

LOL!
imperi
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July 20, 2011, 01:15:14 PM
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Euros are traded at far less than $13/Euro. Doesn't that mean they suck even more, by your extremely logical standards?
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July 20, 2011, 01:47:58 PM
 #9

Although the bitcoin lovers claim that one of the benefits of BTC is as a safe haven for your money, recent days events have no proved that.

While gold and swiss Francs have climbed, just look at BTC. Still hovering around the 13-14 mark. It's definitely not a safe haven currency yet and the lack of movement means I'm putting off using it as one e.g. hedge against the euro.


In the past year gold has increased in value for 1 oz. from about $1160 to $1500 or so, an increase of about 30%.

In the past year a Swiss Franc has increased in value for 1 CHF from about $0.97 to about $1.20, an increase of about 24%.

In the past year bitcoin has increased in value for 1 BTC from about $0.005 to $14, an increase of about 280,000%.

Of course, the past is not a reliable guide for future investment, so do what you think is best.

Good post.

libertyzeal
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July 20, 2011, 02:23:55 PM
 #10

It will be interesting if bitcoin ever gets picked up on the FOREX exchanges, those guys are used to making highly leveraged trades, which isn't directly possible with bitcoin.  Until then I wouldn't expect it to trade like a normal currency.
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July 20, 2011, 02:26:37 PM
 #11

Although the bitcoin lovers claim that one of the benefits of BTC is as a safe haven for your money, recent days events have no proved that.

While gold and swiss Francs have climbed, just look at BTC. Still hovering around the 13-14 mark. It's definitely not a safe haven currency yet and the lack of movement means I'm putting off using it as one e.g. hedge against the euro.


In the past year gold has increased in value for 1 oz. from about $1160 to $1500 or so, an increase of about 30%.

In the past year a Swiss Franc has increased in value for 1 CHF from about $0.97 to about $1.20, an increase of about 24%.

In the past year bitcoin has increased in value for 1 BTC from about $0.005 to $14, an increase of about 280,000%.

Of course, the past is not a reliable guide for future investment, so do what you think is best.

And we have a winner.
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July 20, 2011, 06:36:07 PM
 #12

It will be interesting if bitcoin ever gets picked up on the FOREX exchanges, those guys are used to making highly leveraged trades, which isn't directly possible with bitcoin.  Until then I wouldn't expect it to trade like a normal currency.

Why aren't leveraged trades possible? I can leverage-trade myself right now by getting a loan in USD and buying BTC with that money. What kind of leverage are you talking about?
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July 20, 2011, 06:36:41 PM
 #13

@bitcola

The parent post is just plain embarrassing. In the age of the internet, you could easily research a few things and see you are way off the mark. Lets deconstruct, shall we?

Although the bitcoin lovers claim that one of the benefits of BTC is as a safe haven for your money, recent days events have no proved that.

"Recent days events" eh? Care to provide, you know, some elaboration to your claims? I really detest open-ended fluffery. Give what you are saying some weight, or don't post it at all.

While gold and swiss Francs have climbed, just look at BTC. Still hovering around the 13-14 mark. It's definitely not a safe haven currency yet and the lack of movement means I'm putting off using it as one e.g. hedge against the euro.

Again, priced against what? If we have to assume from your statement that it is in US Dollars, fine - but make it clear. This will save you future heartache when people dissect your logic.

I shake my head when I see the 'lack of movement' rationale. You're saying that a currency that has some kind of plateau of stable pricing isn't good enough? Do you realize the markets you are comparing are several orders of magnitude off from each other?

What exactly compelled you to put your foot in your mouth? I'm at a loss to even attempt explaining it.


fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
bitcola
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July 20, 2011, 07:14:01 PM
 #14


In the past year gold has increased in value for 1 oz. from about $1160 to $1500 or so, an increase of about 30%.

In the past year a Swiss Franc has increased in value for 1 CHF from about $0.97 to about $1.20, an increase of about 24%.

In the past year bitcoin has increased in value for 1 BTC from about $0.005 to $14, an increase of about 280,000%.

Of course, the past is not a reliable guide for future investment, so do what you think is best.

Bitcoin's rise this year is a one-off due to it's infancy. If you honestly think it will perform like that for eternity then you are lost, my friend!

Euros are traded at far less than $13/Euro. Doesn't that mean they suck even more, by your extremely logical standards?

Absolute value of a currency doesn't mean anything. No offence, but you should do some basic reading on currencies.

@bitcola

The parent post is just plain embarrassing. In the age of the internet, you could easily research a few things and see you are way off the mark. Lets deconstruct, shall we?

Although the bitcoin lovers claim that one of the benefits of BTC is as a safe haven for your money, recent days events have no proved that.

"Recent days events" eh? Care to provide, you know, some elaboration to your claims? I really detest open-ended fluffery. Give what you are saying some weight, or don't post it at all.

While gold and swiss Francs have climbed, just look at BTC. Still hovering around the 13-14 mark. It's definitely not a safe haven currency yet and the lack of movement means I'm putting off using it as one e.g. hedge against the euro.

Again, priced against what? If we have to assume from your statement that it is in US Dollars, fine - but make it clear. This will save you future heartache when people dissect your logic.

I shake my head when I see the 'lack of movement' rationale. You're saying that a currency that has some kind of plateau of stable pricing isn't good enough? Do you realize the markets you are comparing are several orders of magnitude off from each other?

What exactly compelled you to put your foot in your mouth? I'm at a loss to even attempt explaining it.



Not sure why the insults are flying here. My post was brief and to the point. Any longer, and it may not have gotten any responses. Don't jump to conclusions or make assumptions and flying insults are no help for a good discussion.

Yes, let's assume against the USD. This was my original assumption but I did not want to complicate matters. An assumption against the world reserve currency can safely be made.


Of course I realise they are several magnitudes of order different.


But what I am trying to say is that when there is a gloomy outlook or bad news, possible "tits-up" scenario on the horizon within weeks or even days, then it is normal for there to be a flight to CHF or XAU. As one good example, the last week or so has seen such rises. Whereas BTC has not moved at all. So there is no serious, even small critical mass who believes that BTC is a safe haven. If there were even a few, the price would have budged.

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July 20, 2011, 07:31:13 PM
 #15

Anyone in Europe wanting to get into BTC right now is going to have a hard time doing it, at least at MtGox. I have heard a lot of complaining from people in Europe who want to buy but can't. I expect to see some movement as soon as it becomes possible for them to get money into MtGox, which is going to be next week at the earliest.

The rest of you should get in now before the big buying spree. Smiley

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TYDIRocks
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July 20, 2011, 07:32:13 PM
 #16

Although the bitcoin lovers claim that one of the benefits of BTC is as a safe haven for your money, recent days events have no proved that.

While gold and swiss Francs have climbed, just look at BTC. Still hovering around the 13-14 mark. It's definitely not a safe haven currency yet and the lack of movement means I'm putting off using it as one e.g. hedge against the euro.


In the past year gold has increased in value for 1 oz. from about $1160 to $1500 or so, an increase of about 30%.

In the past year a Swiss Franc has increased in value for 1 CHF from about $0.97 to about $1.20, an increase of about 24%.

In the past year bitcoin has increased in value for 1 BTC from about $0.005 to $14, an increase of about 280,000%.

Of course, the past is not a reliable guide for future investment, so do what you think is best.

lol you just won against OP, good post.

Import new address/private keys with ease: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101161
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July 20, 2011, 07:42:26 PM
 #17

It will be interesting if bitcoin ever gets picked up on the FOREX exchanges, those guys are used to making highly leveraged trades, which isn't directly possible with bitcoin.  Until then I wouldn't expect it to trade like a normal currency.

Why aren't leveraged trades possible? I can leverage-trade myself right now by getting a loan in USD and buying BTC with that money. What kind of leverage are you talking about?

I want to do naked trades (not bothering the hassle of borrowing money or bitcoin...non-naked trades are so 90's Smiley  Any ideas?

joulesbeef
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July 20, 2011, 07:50:58 PM
 #18

Here is the deal, just becasue gold and the franc have gone up doesnt mean that BTC isnt a haven.

People are flocking to gold and francs as it is the traditional haven when the dollar eventually drops.

right now gold and francs are rising on the POSSIBILITY of a major dollar drop. Not that it has happened but becasue of the ammount of people flocking there.

BTC is nowhere traded at the same level, you would not expect to see such a rise before the dollar collapse. It just doesnt have that many people that use it yet as a safe haven. THAT DOES NOT MEAN IT ISNT ONE.

(personally I dont think it is as we tend to peg items to the dollar before selling them IN BTC)

mooo for rent
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July 20, 2011, 07:51:50 PM
 #19

I want to do naked trades (not bothering the hassle of borrowing money or bitcoin...non-naked trades are so 90's Smiley  Any ideas?

Undress before you walk into the bank.

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cypherdoc
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July 20, 2011, 08:15:47 PM
 #20

i see the lack of correlation to the USD market as positive development for BTC.  you name an asset class; stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, and even gold/silver and they all have a negative correlation to the USD.  and this is to be expected since the more USD's Berspankme prints, the more they flow into speculative assets such as these.  this is called the "all one market" theory.

let us not forget that BTC has had a HUGE run since October and it needs a rest, aka consolidation.  as i pointed out in another thread the technical indicators are strengthening and starting to turn up.  the fact that it is not correlating or participating in this "all one market" theory says to me that it indeed does have the potential to become a major threat to the USD and fiat currencies in general.
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