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Author Topic: Proof BTC has a way to go - NOT considered a safe haven  (Read 2677 times)
RodeoX
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July 20, 2011, 08:26:05 PM
 #21

Bitcoin is a currency for buying things over the Internet. You can buy/sell without giving you personal info. The person you buy/sell with can be in a far away place. And you can store it on your smart-phone. Those are reasons why BTC will succeed. The other activities BTC is being used for are a distraction, IMO.  Satoshi never claimed it would be a good "investment", and it was not designed to be one.
Buy some, keep them handy for purchase, then replace them when you get low. Do that and you are not likely to ever worry about their price.

The gospel according to Satoshi - https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

Free bitcoin=https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1610684
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July 20, 2011, 08:46:30 PM
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It will be interesting if bitcoin ever gets picked up on the FOREX exchanges, those guys are used to making highly leveraged trades, which isn't directly possible with bitcoin.  Until then I wouldn't expect it to trade like a normal currency.

Why aren't leveraged trades possible? I can leverage-trade myself right now by getting a loan in USD and buying BTC with that money. What kind of leverage are you talking about?

I'm just musing about how they'd probably create some kind bitcoin options, similar to the way options trading works for precious metals on the COMEX where the paper markets seemingly exceed the actual physical amounts in existence by several orders of magnitude.
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July 20, 2011, 09:31:09 PM
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It will be interesting if bitcoin ever gets picked up on the FOREX exchanges, those guys are used to making highly leveraged trades, which isn't directly possible with bitcoin.  Until then I wouldn't expect it to trade like a normal currency.

Why aren't leveraged trades possible? I can leverage-trade myself right now by getting a loan in USD and buying BTC with that money. What kind of leverage are you talking about?

I'm just musing about how they'd probably create some kind bitcoin options, similar to the way options trading works for precious metals on the COMEX where the paper markets seemingly exceed the actual physical amounts in existence by several orders of magnitude.

(Not that I have any direct experience with it, but...)  Probably everyone knows that there are a *lot* more IOU's for PMs than there are PM's to back pay up.  Most people are OK with this because 1) nobody is expecting much delivery, and 2) delivery is a genuine hassle.

An interesting thing about bitcoin is that there is no real reason not to hold the actual coin.  So my #2 and thus the reason for #1 vanishes.  This, I expect, will manifest itself in significantly different market organization and dynamics than most other commodity or semi-commodity markets.

I would hope for a market which was much more difficult to game by market makers.  And even better, captured regulatory agencies would be a thing of the past (since there is no need for such agencies at all!)

My idea which I am working on and off on:

I have some number of bitcoin.  As I envision things, I can transfer them to someone else to play with quite easily and safely if I (or and escrow) holds collateral.  If there is a margin call (the short lost his bet) then I can have my bitcoin automatically bought in on an exchange and I lose nothing.  The level at which the buy-back happens would be proportional to the collateral put up by the speculator.


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July 21, 2011, 12:22:13 AM
 #24

Bitcoin is a currency for buying things over the Internet. You can buy/sell without giving you personal info. The person you buy/sell with can be in a far away place. And you can store it on your smart-phone. Those are reasons why BTC will succeed. The other activities BTC is being used for are a distraction, IMO.  Satoshi never claimed it would be a good "investment", and it was not designed to be one.
Buy some, keep them handy for purchase, then replace them when you get low. Do that and you are not likely to ever worry about their price.

I'm finding the same problem with BTC and I have with USD...there is just not very much that I want to buy no matter what 'currency' I hold.  I can drop a few on Wikileaks, buy a Tee-shirt or some such, but that's not cutting it.

I fully expect to _not_ have this problem at some point in the future, and that is what I care about and spend an inordinate amount of time thinking about and dealing with.  I am taking a bet on BTC with some of my resources in part because I have more confidence it holding it's value and retaining long term usefulness than I do with USD.  I hope that that would not offend Satoshi and/or end up being bad for the project or whatever.

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July 21, 2011, 01:10:44 AM
 #25

Although the bitcoin lovers claim that one of the benefits of BTC is as a safe haven for your money, recent days events have no proved that.

While gold and swiss Francs have climbed, just look at BTC. Still hovering around the 13-14 mark. It's definitely not a safe haven currency yet and the lack of movement means I'm putting off using it as one e.g. hedge against the euro.


You do realize it's 20x the price it was 4 months ago, right?

bitcola
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July 21, 2011, 07:37:22 AM
 #26

Although the bitcoin lovers claim that one of the benefits of BTC is as a safe haven for your money, recent days events have no proved that.

While gold and swiss Francs have climbed, just look at BTC. Still hovering around the 13-14 mark. It's definitely not a safe haven currency yet and the lack of movement means I'm putting off using it as one e.g. hedge against the euro.


You do realize it's 20x the price it was 4 months ago, right?


You do realise this has NOTHING to do with investors flocking to a safe haven currency, right?

You do realise that the 20x in 4 months is unlikely to be repeated again and is irrelevant to this entire discussion, right?
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