Bitcoin price analysis from 2015 to 2018: What will happen in the next months?

[cloud777]

Hi guys!
I created a graphic analysis of the Bitcoin price from 2015 to the present (first semester of each year, weekly frequency, logarithmic scale).
What will happen according to you? Is 2018 an atypical year or not?

Some considerations:
1) 2017/2018: about 30 forks have been implemented. They may have influenced BTC price (especially cash and gold).
2) 2017/2018: BTC Futures. I think they have weakly changed cryptocurrency market.
3) BTC dominance has collapsed in the last 3 years: from 80% to 40%.
4) Media attention may have influenced last semester.
5) Scalability problems have transformed Bitcoins in assets.

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[tokeweed]

Tbh your 'analysis' doesn't help much.  And to be doubly honest, my cynical side is making me think that the main purpose of this thead is you're merit whoring.

[Panda Trump]

Hi guys!
I created a graphic analysis of the Bitcoin price from 2015 to the present (first semester of each year, weekly frequency, logarithmic scale).
What will happen according to you? Is 2018 an atypical year or not?

Some considerations:
1) 2017/2018: about 30 forks have been implemented. They may have influenced BTC price (especially cash and gold).
2) 2017/2018: BTC Futures. I think they have weakly changed cryptocurrency market.
3) BTC dominance has collapsed in the last 3 years: from 80% to 40%.
4) Media attention may have influenced last semester.
5) Scalability problems have transformed Bitcoins in assets.

~~Image Snipped~~

As much as I appreciate your efforts, I agree with tokeweed: I don't see how this helps us by any bit.
You called up some facts and assumptions and included some completely useless graphs..

What happens in 2018 though, depends on the brain functionality of the masses. I mean... If they think realistically, Bitcoin is gonna fall to early(/mid)-2017 levels.
If they're gonna do what I think they're gonna do, the masses are going to invest more, thinking "yes yes blockchain is future omg invest in bitcoin is best crypto coz big price yes", causing the price to rise even more.

I see multiple logical options:
-Cryptocurrencies in general rise a lot, due to popularity increase.
-Cryptocurrencies in general drop a lot, because people started thinking more realistically and stopped investing in Bitcoin. Then the non-thinking masses think that could happen to any cryptocurrency, no matter how good they are and drop them all.
-Cryptocurrencies in general rise a lot, due to Bitcoin's failure. People start thinking more realistically and drop Bitcoin. They switch to another crypto en masse and shift market dominance to next-gen cryptos.

It's insane that pure speculation has brought its price up this high already. I believe in humanity and, thus, think (or rather hope) that Bitcoin won't grow even more...

[STT]

Speculation got us this far and some of it snowballed and brought in more people, now utility has to come through and give some worth to peoples interest.   That was always going to be more important, either theres something gained by society's involvement with crypto or it'll be an empty promise and the speculative promise diminishes.

  Very simply we go sideways, up down whatever but not in a new direction especially.   There is some utility but also bitcoin has to develop to be more efficient and easy to use.   Or the alternate scenario is another blockchain does it better and we see a decline.   But mostly sideways, simple as can be gains wont be as easy retracing our steps at these prices.


Unless someone can come up with a reason for a large alteration in supply or demand.   Halvening in 2016 had an effect over time but that should now be well adjusted and accounted for.  I think dollar has bigger news this year

[cloud777]

Tbh your 'analysis' doesn't help much.  And to be doubly honest, my cynical side is making me think that the main purpose of this thead is you're merit whoring.

I just wanted to open a discussion, no one has certain answers to give about it.
I'm giving you an important update: somebody can live without virtual merits.

I don't see how this helps us by any bit.
You called up some facts and assumptions and included some completely useless graphs..

Totally agree about graphics (but there were also some considerations).
But they are a starter point.
Question is: can Bitcoin pumps in 1st semester as past years?

Speculation got us this far and some of it snowballed and brought in more people, now utility has to come through and give some worth to peoples interest.  

Interesting reasoning... I think that Bitcoin can not express all its potential as an asset. it should return a currency.

[jmlona]

Question is: can Bitcoin pumps in 1st semester as past years?

Speculation got us this far and some of it snowballed and brought in more people, now utility has to come through and give some worth to peoples interest.  

Interesting reasoning... I think that Bitcoin can not express all its potential as an asset. it should return a currency.

There's no semester's in bitcoin, I assume you mean the quarter. In previous years we have seen a fall in prices in January/February and a big pump begin to start in March/April. I wouldn't be at all surprised if we see the same, but I think it will be more of an altcoin pump than a bitcoin pump. I do expect BTC to reach 15k in the next 1-2 months.

Bitcoin is still being pushed as a currency and STT is right that now the utility needs to come through. Bitcoin needs to go back to being used as a payment option or else it will only exist as a store of value and that won't end well.

[nightmanisrightman]

Interesting reasoning... I think that Bitcoin can not express all its potential as an asset. it should return a currency.

My thoughts as well, it should have never have been a store of value but the market decided that is what it wanted last year. With the beginning days of LN we will get back to being a currency soon, although that transition may still take a year or so.

[Baofeng]

Interesting reasoning... I think that Bitcoin can not express all its potential as an asset. it should return a currency.

My thoughts as well, it should have never have been a store of value but the market decided that is what it wanted last year. With the beginning days of LN we will get back to being a currency soon, although that transition may still take a year or so.

I agree. It should goes to its original root which is to be used as micro payment schemes. But with the increasing fee and slow tx, it has now become as SoV (Store of Value), specially when financial institutions and big entities from behind enter the picture and change the whole landscape. But the question is, can it go back and become a currency? What would it make us see it that way and not just as pure investment scheme?

[cloud777]

There's no semester's in bitcoin, I assume you mean the quarter.

Why can't I look at the semester? 
In my opinion first semester is "colder" than the second.

I don't think that BTC will arrive to 15k in 2 months...

My thoughts as well, it should have never have been a store of value but the market decided that is what it wanted last year. With the beginning days of LN we will get back to being a currency soon, although that transition may still take a year or so.

Totally agree. But the best solution would be a shared decision between all stakeholders.

[jmlona]

There's no semester's in bitcoin, I assume you mean the quarter.

Why can't I look at the semester? 
In my opinion first semester is "colder" than the second.

I don't think that BTC will arrive to 15k in 2 months...

My thoughts as well, it should have never have been a store of value but the market decided that is what it wanted last year. With the beginning days of LN we will get back to being a currency soon, although that transition may still take a year or so.

Totally agree. But the best solution would be a shared decision between all stakeholders.

Because a semester is usually used in the context of a school calendar or such and bitcoin is pretty far from that  but feel free to do as you please!

It's really important that being a store of value is a secondary thing. Transaction costs are back down to a level where bitcoin can be utilized so let's hope there's a push for that.

[cloud777]

It's really important that being a store of value is a secondary thing. Transaction costs are back down to a level where bitcoin can be utilized so let's hope there's a push for that.

It's not only a fee-problem. You must to consider even transactons time.
I can't buy a coffee or a dinner with Bitcoin.

[felicita]

i hope bictoin prize becomse more and more stable in the next months !
i hate these drops and highs . Iam still holding my btc lets wait what the time brings !




regards

[timerland]

Hi guys!
I created a graphic analysis of the Bitcoin price from 2015 to the present (first semester of each year, weekly frequency, logarithmic scale).
What will happen according to you? Is 2018 an atypical year or not?

Some considerations:
1) 2017/2018: about 30 forks have been implemented. They may have influenced BTC price (especially cash and gold).
2) 2017/2018: BTC Futures. I think they have weakly changed cryptocurrency market.
3) BTC dominance has collapsed in the last 3 years: from 80% to 40%.
4) Media attention may have influenced last semester.
5) Scalability problems have transformed Bitcoins in assets.

2018 will be similar to 2014 in a sense, it's going to be a year that is coming off a huge performance. Everyone's hyped up for bitcoin but the bubble has seemingly burst. So we fall in a phase of consolidation, really.

Will it grow in price in the next few months? I think so. I think that we should settle at around $10-15k this year and just comfortably float around that area. We're on the lower end of that range at the moment, which means that in the coming months there could be some pumps.

Will there be tripling/quadrupling of price regularly on the bitcoin scene this year? I don't think so. There are so many forks and alts as I mentioned that are sort of pulling the markets to speculate on these for the moment, but long term BTC's still gonna end up being the definitive winner. BTC dominance will rise in the long term as well.

[HabBear]

Can I offer thoughts on your considerations?

Some considerations:
1) 2017/2018: about 30 forks have been implemented. They may have influenced BTC price (especially cash and gold).

I don't think this matters. You're not referring to 30 forks on Bitcoin...right? Most of them go unknown so most of them don't influence the price of Bitcoin

2) 2017/2018: BTC Futures. I think they have weakly changed cryptocurrency market.

Futures trade completely separate from the Blockchain, so there's no direct influence on the price from futures trading. Companies taking futures positions or making a market in futures need to buy and hold Bitcoin to serve as reserve for their futures positions (particularly if they're going short), so the futures business is supporting the price of Bitcoin due to that activity.

3) BTC dominance has collapsed in the last 3 years: from 80% to 40%.

Agreed to the decline in dominance, not to a collapse. How are you measuring "80% to 40%"? Of what?

4) Media attention may have influenced last semester.

Sure...but as media has died down so will the "newbie buyer" hype. This will slow the speculation.

5) Scalability problems have transformed Bitcoins in assets.

Lightning Network is coming. And, actually, I think it's the lack of merchants wanting to hold or deal in Bitcoin that's made a greater impact on Bitcoin's utility shifting to an investment class.

Thoughts?


Nice chart, you should explain to us what the logarithmic scale does for charts like this.

[cloud777]

I don't think this matters. You're not referring to 30 forks on Bitcoin...right? Most of them go unknown so most of them don't influence the price of Bitcoin

Cash and Gold have influenced BTC price, you can see it on coinmarketcap graphs (shortly before forks)

Futures trade completely separate from the Blockchain, so there's no direct influence on the price from futures trading. Companies taking futures positions or making a market in futures need to buy and hold Bitcoin to serve as reserve for their futures positions (particularly if they're going short), so the futures business is supporting the price of Bitcoin due to that activity.

I think that opening up to external markets has directly influenced the price.
Look here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwel3L6IZnc&t=68s

Agreed to the decline in dominance, not to a collapse. How are you measuring "80% to 40%"? Of what?

(BTC Market cap)/(Total cryptocurrencies market cap )

Sure...but as media has died down so will the "newbie buyer" hype. This will slow the speculation.

Totally agree!

Lightning Network is coming. And, actually, I think it's the lack of merchants wanting to hold or deal in Bitcoin that's made a greater impact on Bitcoin's utility shifting to an investment class.

I'm waiting for them.
they could be an excellent solution

Nice chart, you should explain to us what the logarithmic scale does for charts like this.

Ok. I took BTC price week by week, and then I calculated:

logarithmic scale price = log10($ price)

In this way I avoided the crushing of data (in the graph) in the years when the price was lower.
Some examples:

log10(1000)=3
log10(10000)=4

[alyssa85]

Speculation got us this far and some of it snowballed and brought in more people, now utility has to come through and give some worth to peoples interest.   That was always going to be more important, either theres something gained by society's involvement with crypto or it'll be an empty promise and the speculative promise diminishes.

I can't see utility coming through. The mempool backlog has dropped because no-one is using bitcoin anymore, they're using alts to move money. The few transactions there are are from exchange to exchange.

Steam, Stripe and others that disabled bitcoin have not changed their minds. And there have been no new merchants saying they'll enable bitcoin, but plenty have enabled ethereum, litecoin and other alts.

I think we'll struggle back to $15000, and then drop back in earnest when it becomes clear that the action is in the alt space.

[YuginKadoya]

Like what we see in the preview charts bitcoin will pump maybe now 45 to 46% is the percentage will it go up, lets hope that the chart will sure continue to be precise but if something negative might happen a bearish market will continue, But right now the price is at $11,321.50 value we are heading in the $13,000 maybe after 2 more weeks and we can say bye bye to the resistance that we are experiencing right now.

[omonuyak]

Hi guys!
I created a graphic analysis of the Bitcoin price from 2015 to the present (first semester of each year, weekly frequency, logarithmic scale).
What will happen according to you? Is 2018 an atypical year or not?

Some considerations:
1) 2017/2018: about 30 forks have been implemented. They may have influenced BTC price (especially cash and gold).
2) 2017/2018: BTC Futures. I think they have weakly changed cryptocurrency market.
3) BTC dominance has collapsed in the last 3 years: from 80% to 40%.
4) Media attention may have influenced last semester.
5) Scalability problems have transformed Bitcoins in assets.

This is an informative write-up and I really enjoyed the information you have provided here as this way help most people here to make an informed decision. Bitcoin dominant has drastically reduced and this is because then we have very few coins but now we have many coins. The future has also affected bitcoin price and I think very nagetively. I believe bitcoin is going to do very well in future and what has happened should be what we should watch over.