Mining Namecoins is now 2x more profitable than Bitcoins

[smoothie]

Should be interesting because in 6 months, at the most, if you own a namecoin you will be able to purchase a 1000 times more domain names than you can today. Currently it takes 11.1 NMC to purchase a domain name. With that same 11.1 NMC in 6 months you will be able to register 1,110 domains.

Sound familiar? The exponential growth is very similar in that of bitcoin.

After the last difficulty adjustment and the price overall rising in the ratio of NMC to BTC I'd say people are hanging on to them NMC's.

I don't know where you're getting your numbers from. The cost goes down by 50% every 8192 blocks. Once merged mining happens, it'll take at most 4 difficulty updates to bring difficulty to parity with bitcoin. That's just over 10,000 blocks. After that, cost goes down by 50% every 2 months. So in ~2 months merged mining will become a reality, then difficulty will shoot up in a matter of days to adjust to the new processing power. At this point we're about 16,000 blocks from now. That's 2 halvings of cost, so cost is 1/4 of what it is now. Then every 2 months we'll get another 50% decrease. So that's 1/16th of current cost to register a domain in 6 months. Hardly 1/1000th.

Currently we are at block 18242 and a domain costs 11.08 NMC currently. Now the following link states that at block 24,000 and on the cost of a domain will decrease by 4 times the current rate.

http://dot-bit.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=151&start=10

So if we generate an average of 6 blocks per hour 24 hours a day for 180 days we get:

6 * 24 * 180 = 25920 blocks

Now let's subtract the remaining blocks until 24,000 from now:

24000 - 18242 = 5758 blocks

Now subtract that from the 25920 blocks to get the total blocks that will be at a 4 times decrease in NMC to buy a domain:

25920 - 5758 = 20162 blocks

Now since we are moving at a rate of 4 times faster after block 24,000 it is accurate to say that using the domain cost calculator at http://www.namecoin.us/tools.php the actual "block" we will be at will be:

20162 * 4 + 24000 = 104,648

So if we just used the average 6 blocks per hour over the next 6 months (180 days) the cost of a domain will be less than 0.01 NMC in 180days based on the calculator and using block 104648 as the "block" value we are going to be at.

Maybe 5 months was more accurate given that a price of 0.01 NMC occurs around 90k to 100k blocks.

So my math is that since it takes 11.08 NMC currently to buy a domain and in less than 6 months a domain will cost 0.01 NMC it is safe to assume that the price of NMC to buy a domain has decrease 1108 times.

Originally your math would have been correct but since the new updates to NMC network at block 24,000 will likely take place the prices for domains will go close to 0 NMC very quickly.

Let me also add that once merged mining takes place the process of domain cost decrease will accelerate even more. It could be closer to 3 or 4 months when you see a domain going for 0.01 NMC. But then again I am just speculating.

The rate at which we have been generating blocks since namecoins inception of April 18th, 2011 has been approximately 8 blocks per hour on average. So this is just another sign that 0.01 NMC domains are not far away.

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[talldude]

Originally your math would have been correct but since the new updates to NMC network at block 24,000 will likely take place the prices for domains will go close to 0 NMC very quickly.

That would make a difference then. Well played sir.

This isn't good for NMC value - if you need next to none of them, there will be no demand. I can't imagine that there are millions of people waiting to register .bit domains. Unless NMC becomes a competing currency to BTC, I really think this isn't a good move on the devs part. The lack of demand is already evidenced by the BTC/NMC exchange rate. This will just worsen the situation.

[JohnDoe]

This analysis is flawed - you cannot assign worth to something without making an assumption about the demand for that good. You're assuming that namecoins will have the same demand as bitcoins, which is certainly not going to be true unless namecoins will become a general purpose currency instead of being limited to registering domain names. As a result, there will be no dilution of bitcoins. Since namecoins will essentially be a byproduct for most miners after merged mining, NMC might experience depreciation. Depends on whether the miners hold onto the NMC or dump them on the market.

This analysis is flawed, as Namecoin is already a general purpose currency.

[smoothie]

Originally your math would have been correct but since the new updates to NMC network at block 24,000 will likely take place the prices for domains will go close to 0 NMC very quickly.

That would make a difference then. Well played sir.

This isn't good for NMC value - if you need next to none of them, there will be no demand. I can't imagine that there are millions of people waiting to register .bit domains. Unless NMC becomes a competing currency to BTC, I really think this isn't a good move on the devs part. The lack of demand is already evidenced by the BTC/NMC exchange rate. This will just worsen the situation.

You forgot that in order to mine them it will take quite a bit of time once difficulty goes up. So yeah they will be cheap but the average user might not have the ability to mine them at a low cost. They of course could buy them. So yeah there is a likelihood that the prices could be depressed. But somehow I think there will be demand for them in that they are just like bitcoins only difference is that the market has not been inflated with incoming money just yet. We'll see...

[smoothie]

The only real difference between namecoins and bitcoins is that bitcoins have had lots of money pushed into the market and bitcoins had a chance to mature in development and through the internet community awareness.

Aside from the development (maturing factor) and the money put into each, there is little difference aside from that namecoins do have a functionality that bitcoins don't.

[smoothie]

Originally your math would have been correct but since the new updates to NMC network at block 24,000 will likely take place the prices for domains will go close to 0 NMC very quickly.

That would make a difference then. Well played sir.

This isn't good for NMC value - if you need next to none of them, there will be no demand. I can't imagine that there are millions of people waiting to register .bit domains. Unless NMC becomes a competing currency to BTC, I really think this isn't a good move on the devs part. The lack of demand is already evidenced by the BTC/NMC exchange rate. This will just worsen the situation.

One other thing to note is that the cost of a domain is not the only factor to consider when valuing namecoins. The purchase of domains is purely a function of the network and really may have no bearing currently on the price that NMC is traded at. The value that it has is purely determined (at the moment) by those who buy or sell them and those who mine them.

Value is determined by people, not by the object.

[CYPER]

I have a straightforward question: If I buy 1000 now and wait for the merge to happen then how would I be able to sell them when they would belong to the old block chain and any potential buyers will be using the new block chain. So is transfer of NMC possible between the old (current) chain and the new (patched) chain?

[molecular]

I have a straightforward question: If I buy 1000 now and wait for the merge to happen then how would I be able to sell them when they would belong to the old block chain and any potential buyers will be using the new block chain. So is transfer of NMC possible between the old (current) chain and the new (patched) chain?

don't worry, "old coins" will work just like "new coins", the client will use "old rules" for blocks < 24000 and new rules for blocks >= 24000. it's transparent to users.

[CYPER]

Supply will not change because the network adjusts difficulty. Demand - who knows what it will do.

Actually supply will double and that is why price will most probably drop by 50%.

[CYPER]

don't worry, "old coins" will work just like "new coins", the client will use "old rules" for blocks < 24000 and new rules for blocks >= 24000. it's transparent to users.

So are you absolutely sure that it would be possible for old coins to be added to the new patched block chain?

[smoothie]

don't worry, "old coins" will work just like "new coins", the client will use "old rules" for blocks < 24000 and new rules for blocks >= 24000. it's transparent to users.

So are you absolutely sure that it would be possible for old coins to be added to the new patched block chain?

Trust me, the developers would be shooting themselves in the foot if the coins before block 24000 were incompatible with the network after block 24000 given that the majority of their holdings originated prior to block 24000. This would will the trust of the entire network and cause an death spiral in the network.'

So yeah I think we're pretty confident they will be compatible.

[smoothie]

Supply will not change because the network adjusts difficulty. Demand - who knows what it will do.

Actually supply will double and that is why price will most probably drop by 50%.

I somewhat agree with this. Because namecoins are identical in nature as a currency there is a good chance that some of the incoming funds into bitcoin will filter into namecoin eventually if not really quickly.

[molecular]

don't worry, "old coins" will work just like "new coins", the client will use "old rules" for blocks < 24000 and new rules for blocks >= 24000. it's transparent to users.

So are you absolutely sure that it would be possible for old coins to be added to the new patched block chain?

it's explained on the "merged mining" wiki page

http://dot-bit.org/Merged_Mining#Will_NMC_mined_prior_to_block_24k_become_invalid.3F

answer: "No, not at all. The old blocks are checked based on the old rules. Thus you don't need to worry."

[m3ta]

The rate at which we have been generating blocks since namecoins inception of April 18th, 2011 has been approximately 8 blocks per hour on average.

There are more variables to consider: for example, the last NMC block on namebit is going for 28 hours now, and has had a drop of about 85% of miners that hopped away.

[joulesbeef]

just how many .bit domains are actually in use? any of them successful?

[m3ta]

just how many .bit domains are actually in use? any of them successful?

Most are redirects.
Many are incorrectly configured.

And then there's the "i'll reserve this good .bit domain, if you want it, make me an offer" that I completely frown upon, as it represents the 'hoarding' and speculation that the whole NMC project is supposed to avoid.

[marcus_of_augustus]

bitcoiner hating on namecoin ... could there be anybody sadder?

[Xephan]

just how many .bit domains are actually in use? any of them successful?

Most are redirects.
Many are incorrectly configured.

And then there's the "i'll reserve this good .bit domain, if you want it, make me an offer" that I completely frown upon, as it represents the 'hoarding' and speculation that the whole NMC project is supposed to avoid.

Any examples of actually resolvable .bit domains?

[marcus_of_augustus]

just how many .bit domains are actually in use? any of them successful?

Most are redirects.
Many are incorrectly configured.

And then there's the "i'll reserve this good .bit domain, if you want it, make me an offer" that I completely frown upon, as it represents the 'hoarding' and speculation that the whole NMC project is supposed to avoid.

Any examples of actually resolvable .bit domains?

off the top of my head ...

http://dot-bit.bit/
http://example.bit/
http://opennic.bit/

there are others ... of course you will have to be smart enough to know how to enable your browser/system/network to get to them ... it is not idiot-proof, yet.

http://dot-bit.bit/HowToBrowseBitDomains

edit: hehehe ... to break any autistics out of that particular infinite loop go here ...

http://dot-bit.org/HowToBrowseBitDomains

[smoothie]

The rate at which we have been generating blocks since namecoins inception of April 18th, 2011 has been approximately 8 blocks per hour on average.

There are more variables to consider: for example, the last NMC block on namebit is going for 28 hours now, and has had a drop of about 85% of miners that hopped away.

Right but I can only go on the data I have and that is the time since inception and the number of blocks generated.

Make sense?