Bullish scenario

[TERA]

This 110 just happens to be where it fell to on GOX. Gox is less relevant these days as it has less volume and has no fiat entering or leaving. Bitstamp is where real sellers would have sold their coin as you can actually cash out there.  Now what do you make of the drops on bitstamp and btce?

Bitstamp fell to 85 and btce fell to 75!  You can't draw any similar lines involving THESE prices.

[1714761033]

1714761033

[afbitcoins]

This 110 just happens to be where it fell to on GOX. Gox is less relevant these days as it has less volume and has no fiat entering or leaving. Bitstamp is where real sellers would have sold their coin as you can actually cash out there.  Now what do you make of the drops on bitstamp and btce?

Bitstamp fell to 85 and btce fell to 75!  You can't draw any similar lines involving THESE prices.

Those charts are for MtGox, so the bitstamp price is not relevant to that chart, later if i find time i might see how valid similar trend lines look on bitstamp charts. Or UK pounds charts or whatever.

Mt Gox is still a decent proxy for the market but, yes is losing its dominance which is good. Here is some more information about what i think regarding price diff on MtGox http://afbitcoins.wordpress.com/2013/10/01/mtgox-price/

[afbitcoins]

This 110 just happens to be where it fell to on GOX. Gox is less relevant these days as it has less volume and has no fiat entering or leaving. Bitstamp is where real sellers would have sold their coin as you can actually cash out there.  Now what do you make of the drops on bitstamp and btce?

Bitstamp fell to 85 and btce fell to 75!  You can't draw any similar lines involving THESE prices.

Further to that, I know I highlighted the Silk Road Siezure panic as validating the bottom trendline but I don't think too much importance should be heaped on that one touch point. I just thought it was quite 'cute' thats all. The more important thing is the channel which especially on the other trend lines looks very well defined in my opinion.

[bitcoinBull]

Nice channel. But using mtgox price worries me.

Here's the bitstamp chart. Watch for the OBV to break above 450, and for the MACD to turn positive. That would confirm the bullish scenario IMO. (Accumulation/Distribution is not charted below, but it is going sky-high due to fund flows from mtgox to bitstamp. Acc/Dist on mtgox chart has flatlined).

[afbitcoins]

Its a shame TradingView doesn't have the symbol for bitstamp. (Unless its just me not spotting it). Anyway heres an attempt at showing similar channel on bitstamp



The bottom trend line doesnt look so good a match as MtGox on this interpretation, but I'd still say the overall upwards trend looks quite well established

I may spend some more time doing overlays between the Mtgox and Bitstamp price if I find time. Features look fairly similar. Not sure offhand when price began to diverge ie when MtGox stopped being able to allow US$ withdrawls causing price descrepency. (In normal situation arbitrage would balance out the differences.)

[afbitcoins]

*** Latest Update ***

The MtGox price has climbed above resistance

[afbitcoins]

*** Resistance at $170 ***

Based on the channels I've been following in this thread I'd say the next resistance should be at $170 as we approach the top of those channels.
Heres a chart showing the longer term, less steep channel.



more
http://afbitcoins.wordpress.com/2013/10/16/resistance-at-170/

[afbitcoins]

Lots of talk of a bubble in the forums today, in my view this isn't anywhere near a bubble yet. Although the recent price rises are very impressive. I think the spike up is caused by a sort of slingshot effect after the bust of silk road. There was a lot of bullish momentum prior to silk road, the panic selling of silk road cleared the way for the stronger hands to swoop in.

I'm thinking there will be a correction soon, possibly back into the channel I've been looking at here.

[afbitcoins]

Lots of talk of a bubble in the forums today, in my view this isn't anywhere near a bubble yet. Although the recent price rises are very impressive. I think the spike up is caused by a sort of slingshot effect after the bust of silk road. There was a lot of bullish momentum prior to silk road, the panic selling of silk road cleared the way for the stronger hands to swoop in.

Of course you are correct. Everyone here is bubble this and bubble that... this means there will be lots of bids chasing the asks for long time to come. All those countless "short term bears" must surrender before the short term bullish trend (weekly chart) reverses. It is never a bubble, not even close, when everyone thinks that something is a bubble. If you want bubble go look at the non-logarithmic chart of the difficulty or chart of mobile phone and social account adoption over last few years.

BTW what will break bear's spines is 100$+ a day price increases. Once we see that, then perhaps it may make sense to stop buying for a while.

Yes amazing to think of it, but if bitcoins go to triple digits then 100$ a day moves might be quite normal by then.

[nobbynobbynoob]

Yes amazing to think of it, but if bitcoins go to triple digits then 100$ a day moves might be quite normal by then.

<technical correction>quadruple/quintuple*</technical correction>

[afbitcoins]

ahem! Quite correct. thanks. $100 a day moves in triple digits would be something!

 

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Almost more exciting than the prices are where Bitcoin will be when it hits quadruple or quintuple digits. What will the ecosystem look like?

[nobbynobbynoob]

Almost more exciting than the prices are where Bitcoin will be when it hits quadruple or quintuple digits. What will the ecosystem look like?

Obviously, I haven't a clue, but my guess would be that bitcoin payment methods would be approaching ubiquity online at least. Brick'n'mortar businesses might still be way behind the adoption curve even then, with fiat prevailing in meatspace for the time being.

Some theorize that BTC may be priced around $2000 with full-on mainstream adoption. While this is possible - bear in mind Bitcoin might not be the only game in town (it isn't now if you count Ripple, altcoins, centralized digital currencies and fiat-based payment systems) - the flaw I see in that analysis is that such a "low" mainstream price would probably be based upon Bitcoin being used primarily as a means to transfer rather than store value. But with such mainstream usage, its store-of-value properties would surely shine, thereby providing a continued incentive to "hoard", pushing the price up further and further.

Of course, my thoughts are just that, and are little more than largely uncorroborated opinions. I'm no "pro" economist, and given some of the fraudsters who claim to be, am not ashamed of it.

[smoothie]

Lots of talk of a bubble in the forums today, in my view this isn't anywhere near a bubble yet. Although the recent price rises are very impressive. I think the spike up is caused by a sort of slingshot effect after the bust of silk road. There was a lot of bullish momentum prior to silk road, the panic selling of silk road cleared the way for the stronger hands to swoop in.

Of course you are correct. Everyone here is bubble this and bubble that... this means there will be lots of bids chasing the asks for long time to come. All those countless "short term bears" must surrender before the short term bullish trend (weekly chart) reverses. It is never a bubble, not even close, when everyone thinks that something is a bubble. If you want bubble go look at the non-logarithmic chart of the difficulty or chart of mobile phone and social account adoption over last few years.

BTW what will break bear's spines is 100$+ a day price increases. Once we see that, then perhaps it may make sense to stop buying for a while.

I still think this is too conservative if seen as $100 a day price increases.

I can see a $250 price increase in a single day. And having them back to back or a series of them.

We have got a long way to go -----------> $1000+

[nwfella]

Definitely doesn't look like a bubble imho.

[afbitcoins]

Yup definitely bullish

This has actually turned out to be more accurate than my chart!

     
 

[afbitcoins]

Heres an update to my bullish scenario -Think i was right to be bullish 

Theres a closing wedge forming at the moment by look of it. Resistance at a line drawn from the all time high to last weeks high..

[afbitcoins]

I called for a bullish rally around the time of silk road siezure, just before actually. Looks like a good call I'd say, price has risen about $1000 since then

  

How high is this rally going to go ? $2200 ?

Been a little while since I posted on this thread, however heres the fork I'm now following on my blog.