Bearish Scenario

[bitcoinator]

Silk Road is dead but Bitcoin is alive. Police fights criminals but not the currency. I think all this buzz about Silk Road is good for Bitcoin's publicity and de-centralization. It really doesn't depend on any single business or institution. And if you really want to buy drugs, you can always find ways to do it. I am quite sure new darknet marketplaces will emerge. You can talk about bullish or bearish trends, but every single bitcoiner is a long-term bull. You can earn something on short-time bearish trends too, but it is complicated and risky. To my mind it doesn't worth it.

[1713907318]

1713907318

[1713907318]

1713907318

[1713907318]

1713907318

[RodeoX]

With Silk Road down Bitcoin now has now no practical use. ...

Never used SR. But I use bitcoin all the time for other things. I could care less about SR and their closing has no effect on my spending habits. If bitcoin were dependent on the decisions of crackheads then it would already be gone.

+1

Your experiences aren't representative for everybody involved in bitcoin,
You are a minority and I said bitcoin is to remain for the true believers.

I may be in the minority on a lot of issues, but the fact that prices remain basically unchanged by this leads me to believe that SR was a minor player. Don't get me wrong, I think most drugs should be legalized. But bitcoin now has a large and complex ecosystem. Any one use is trivial compared to the myriad things bitcoin is good for.

[MoneyMorpheus]

No TA

With Silk Road down Bitcoin now has now no practical use. Buying stuff over Bitpay has no practical advantage over other methods and it's volume is negligible if you exclude ASIC sales.
Bitcoin is now 99% concerned with itself, that is either mining or investing, any sensible individual gonna look for a exit in the following months. Then you true believers will be finally on your own.
It's now a pure financial bubble.

Have fun!

I wonder if you have seen your signature lately? 

Ignore those idiots they are just trying to make the bitcoin movement look stupid.

[adamstgBit]

No TA

With Silk Road down Bitcoin now has now no practical use. Buying stuff over Bitpay has no practical advantage over other methods and it's volume is negligible if you exclude ASIC sales.
Bitcoin is now 99% concerned with itself, that is either mining or investing, any sensible individual gonna look for a exit in the following months. Then you true believers will be finally on your own.
It's now a pure financial bubble.

Have fun!

I wonder if you have seen your signature lately? 

Ignore those idiots they are just trying to make the bitcoin movement look stupid.

LOL!

[ElectricMucus]

Yeah I put it there.

[ElectricMucus]

I may be in the minority on a lot of issues, but the fact that prices remain basically unchanged by this leads me to believe that SR was a minor player. Don't get me wrong, I think most drugs should be legalized. But bitcoin now has a large and complex ecosystem. Any one use is trivial compared to the myriad things bitcoin is good for.

No Bitcoin isn't a large ecosystem it just consumes the power of a small country.
The remaining activity can be put into two categories:

1.) ASIC sales, which are a zero sum game and do not contribute anything to economic activity and are just a lottery ticket for yet to be released Bitcoins, it's speculating either way.
2.) Enthusiasts consuming in Bitcoin and thats a small minority in comparison to ASIC sales. They pay a premium for that to other enthusiasts, but other people are just not into that.

A third category doesn't really exist, gimmicks like humble bundle or wordpress for Bitcoin don't really generate any volume. (Check their published statistics)
Paying with Bitcoins in some German hipster bar is laughable, I think I don't get any arguments there.
Silkroad was the 3rd category until now...

[gog1]

Consider how NSA has problem with Tor, I think a new SR will spring up.

796 exchange is bringing something new, speculating on gold futures where the difference is 'bitcoin-settled', daily volume is about 5000 BTC so far.

Close to half of BTC / fiat trade is in CNY, and I highly doubt the Chinese were SR users.  The 'speculative' demand will keep BTC prices up.

[Argwai96]

so is the Chinese bitcoin "economy" purely speculation? is there anything going on besides mining and exchange?

[ElectricMucus]

so is the Chinese bitcoin "economy" purely speculation? is there anything going on besides mining and exchange?

Not that I am aware of.

[notme]

so is the Chinese bitcoin "economy" purely speculation? is there anything going on besides mining and exchange?

Bitcoinstore pays its Chinese suppliers in btc.

[gog1]

the zero-sum mining game will probably keep going until at least the next halving, if not longer.  The allure (or belief) of making lots of money by running a bunch of computers is hard to resist.

[meanig]

No TA

With Silk Road down Bitcoin now has now no practical use. Buying stuff over Bitpay has no practical advantage over other methods and it's volume is negligible if you exclude ASIC sales.
Bitcoin is now 99% concerned with itself, that is either mining or investing, any sensible individual gonna look for a exit in the following months. Then you true believers will be finally on your own.
It's now a pure financial bubble.

Have fun!

What a load of shite. All the SR buyers and sellers have migrated to BMR and SMP. It's business as usual for them.

[Ivanhoe]

No TA

With Silk Road down Bitcoin now has now no practical use. Buying stuff over Bitpay has no practical advantage over other methods and it's volume is negligible if you exclude ASIC sales.
Bitcoin is now 99% concerned with itself, that is either mining or investing, any sensible individual gonna look for a exit in the following months. Then you true believers will be finally on your own.
It's now a pure financial bubble.

Have fun!

What a load of shite. All the SR buyers and sellers have migrated to BMR and SMP. It's business as usual for them.

Yup, Silkroad is like the Hydra of Lerna. One down, two new pop up. Government is going to lose this.

[ElectricMucus]

Yup, Silkroad is like the Hydra of Lerna. One down, two new pop up. Government is going to lose this.

The hydra gets it at the end. Don't you think the FBI will utilize the data they got from the SR sever to go after the merchants there?

[meanig]

Yup, Silkroad is like the Hydra of Lerna. One down, two new pop up. Government is going to lose this.

The hydra gets it at the end. Don't you think the FBI will utilize the data they got from the SR sever to go after the merchants there?

Yeah Silk Road required an ID scan and recent utility bill from all merchants before they could start vending 

[notme]

Yup, Silkroad is like the Hydra of Lerna. One down, two new pop up. Government is going to lose this.

The hydra gets it at the end. Don't you think the FBI will utilize the data they got from the SR sever to go after the merchants there?

What data exactly do you are think they recovered?  Nicknames, product lists, public keys and and country seems like about it.

[600watt]

it is not the end, it is the beginning 

[ElectricMucus]

Yup, Silkroad is like the Hydra of Lerna. One down, two new pop up. Government is going to lose this.

The hydra gets it at the end. Don't you think the FBI will utilize the data they got from the SR sever to go after the merchants there?

What data exactly do you are think they recovered?  Nicknames, product lists, public keys and and country seems like about it.

Was pgp mandatory? If not there are at least some postal codes and consumer addresses.

[Tzupy]

Yup, Silkroad is like the Hydra of Lerna. One down, two new pop up. Government is going to lose this.

The hydra gets it at the end. Don't you think the FBI will utilize the data they got from the SR sever to go after the merchants there?

If it took the feds so long to get DPR, then how long will it take getting hundreds (maybe thousands, I don't know) drug merchants?
This may have an impact 6 - 12 months from now, by then the BTC market would have moved on, while other drug markets replaced SR.
I am more interested to know when will the feds sell the confiscated coins, that could have an impact on the market.

PS. I forgot that this is the bearish scenario thread, so I have to post a bearish image. Enjoy, if you can understand where we are. 

[ElectricMucus]

I am more interested to know when will the feds sell the confiscated coins, that could have an impact on the market.

I'm more concerned with the 600k coins they haven't have control over (yet). Considering DPR will likely live the rest of his life behind bars, that's a ticket to make pretty damn sure their value never reaches anything significant.