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Author Topic: What do you think will happen to the price when the blocks drop to 25 coins each  (Read 3130 times)
kiwiasian
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July 23, 2011, 12:47:53 AM
 #21

It likely won't change

Current investors don't seem to understand less supply = higher price

At the current difficulty the supply of mined bitcoins has dwindled waaaay down and yet the price has been more or less the same or just going down...when it gets reduced to 25 BTC I doubt anyone is going to pay attention. So all miners are screwed.

Doesn't the total supply remain constant, and the difficulty corrects for the number of miners?

Yes, supply is constant, until block reward is dropped. 6 blocks per hour, ~300 coins.



The supply is constant but they are being generated much slower

You're joking, right? the system adjusts difficulty so that there is always ~300 coins every hour. If you are seeing 'slower' generation, it's because the number of miners, and thus the difficulty, is higher, and your share of the total hashing power, is lower. Learn2math.

No, I'm not joking. At one point I could make 3 BTC a day. Now it's 0.5 BTC a day.

Difficulty is up and coins are being produced 6x slower. Use a bitcoin mining profitability calculator, it will give you the same data...

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myrkul
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July 23, 2011, 12:56:07 AM
 #22

No, I'm not joking. At one point I could make 3 BTC a day. Now it's 0.5 BTC a day.

Difficulty is up and coins are being produced 6x slower. Use a bitcoin mining profitability calculator, it will give you the same data...

Ah. so you're an idiot.

More miners, same supply... less per miner. Once again, learn2math.

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joulesbeef
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July 23, 2011, 12:59:29 AM
 #23

you can see the rate of new blocks being found on bitcoin charts

it is currently 6.63

it is harder for the individual to mine.. slower,  due to the higher difficulty but that is due to more users,

so we remain constant at 100,000 coins every 11-15 days

right now we are 6.63 blocks  an hour so difficulty will go up again, to slow us all down.

mooo for rent
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July 23, 2011, 02:35:00 AM
 #24

That was funny!

No, I'm not joking. At one point I could make 3 BTC a day. Now it's 0.5 BTC a day.

Difficulty is up and coins are being produced 6x slower. Use a bitcoin mining profitability calculator, it will give you the same data...

Ah. so you're an idiot.

More miners, same supply... less per miner. Once again, learn2math.

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kiwiasian
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July 24, 2011, 03:00:32 AM
 #25

No, I'm not joking. At one point I could make 3 BTC a day. Now it's 0.5 BTC a day.

Difficulty is up and coins are being produced 6x slower. Use a bitcoin mining profitability calculator, it will give you the same data...

Ah. so you're an idiot.

More miners, same supply... less per miner. Once again, learn2math.

Ah, so you're an idiot.
Difficulty went up, you make less per day.

Sigh.
Go here:
http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator.php

Enter difficulty 10,000 and hash rate 10
=1.01 BTC/day

Enter difficulty 20,000 and hash rate 10
=0.5 BTC/day

There is your proof you cannot deny that

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Xephan
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July 24, 2011, 03:27:08 AM
 #26


Ah, so you're an idiot.
Difficulty went up, you make less per day.

Sigh.
Go here:
http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator.php

Enter difficulty 10,000 and hash rate 10
=1.01 BTC/day

Enter difficulty 20,000 and hash rate 10
=0.5 BTC/day

There is your proof you cannot deny that

You're embarrassing yourself here man.

Difficulty only increases because total hashing power increases. This can only happen when total miners x average hash power increases.


Total Miners: 1000, Average Hash Rate 10, Difficulty 10000 = 1 BTC / day PER MINER, Total Network BTC = 1000 x 1 = 1000 BTC

Total Miners: 2000, Average Hash Rate 10, Difficulty 20000 = 0.5 BTC / day PER MINER Total Network BTC = 2000 x 0.5 = 1000 BTC


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notme
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July 24, 2011, 03:34:12 AM
 #27

Right.... Your talking past each other.  Kiwiasian is correct that a the BTC/hashrate has decreased, and Xephan is correct that the total supply remains fairly constant.  A wider distribution of the new coins however is a new factor after the last major rally.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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Xephan
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July 24, 2011, 03:42:05 AM
 #28

Right.... Your talking past each other.  Kiwiasian is correct that a the BTC/hashrate has decreased, and Xephan is correct that the total supply remains fairly constant.  A wider distribution of the new coins however is a new factor after the last major rally.

The problem here is that his original point is that the supply has dwindled which isn't the case. He was confusing his personal BTC/hashrate with total supply.

The key part of his original statement was this
Quote
At the current difficulty the supply of mined bitcoins has dwindled waaaay down

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notme
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July 24, 2011, 03:58:22 AM
 #29

That statement is indeed incorrect.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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myrkul
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July 24, 2011, 04:02:26 AM
 #30

No, I'm not joking. At one point I could make 3 BTC a day. Now it's 0.5 BTC a day.

Difficulty is up and coins are being produced 6x slower. Use a bitcoin mining profitability calculator, it will give you the same data...

Ah. so you're an idiot.

More miners, same supply... less per miner. Once again, learn2math.

Ah, so you're an idiot.
Difficulty went up, you make less per day.

It must take a lot of work to be as stupid as you are.

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kiwiasian
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July 24, 2011, 04:03:00 AM
 #31

Right.... Your talking past each other.  Kiwiasian is correct that a the BTC/hashrate has decreased, and Xephan is correct that the total supply remains fairly constant.  A wider distribution of the new coins however is a new factor after the last major rally.

The problem here is that his original point is that the supply has dwindled which isn't the case. He was confusing his personal BTC/hashrate with total supply.

The key part of his original statement was this
Quote
At the current difficulty the supply of mined bitcoins has dwindled waaaay down


BTC generated per person declines...
Which I just explained...

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kiwiasian
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July 24, 2011, 04:03:48 AM
 #32

No, I'm not joking. At one point I could make 3 BTC a day. Now it's 0.5 BTC a day.

Difficulty is up and coins are being produced 6x slower. Use a bitcoin mining profitability calculator, it will give you the same data...

Ah. so you're an idiot.

More miners, same supply... less per miner. Once again, learn2math.

Ah, so you're an idiot.
Difficulty went up, you make less per day.

It must take a lot of work to be as stupid as you are.

Do you not get it? Did you even bother to look at the link? And enter the data I just provided?

And yet I am the stupid one in this situation? How old are you?

Edit: I also provided statistical proof that you can't deny. What proof have you?

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myrkul
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July 24, 2011, 04:18:33 AM
 #33

Right.... Your talking past each other.  Kiwiasian is correct that a the BTC/hashrate has decreased, and Xephan is correct that the total supply remains fairly constant.  A wider distribution of the new coins however is a new factor after the last major rally.

The problem here is that his original point is that the supply has dwindled which isn't the case. He was confusing his personal BTC/hashrate with total supply.

The key part of his original statement was this
Quote
At the current difficulty the supply of mined bitcoins has dwindled waaaay down


BTC generated per person declines...
Which I just explained...

But there are more miners...
and the rate of generation is constant...
So there's still the same number of coins going on the market...
and you're still a moron...

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July 24, 2011, 04:18:53 AM
 #34

Just what exactly are you two disagreeing about?!

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kiwiasian
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July 24, 2011, 05:07:27 AM
 #35

Right.... Your talking past each other.  Kiwiasian is correct that a the BTC/hashrate has decreased, and Xephan is correct that the total supply remains fairly constant.  A wider distribution of the new coins however is a new factor after the last major rally.

The problem here is that his original point is that the supply has dwindled which isn't the case. He was confusing his personal BTC/hashrate with total supply.

The key part of his original statement was this
Quote
At the current difficulty the supply of mined bitcoins has dwindled waaaay down


BTC generated per person declines...
Which I just explained...

But there are more miners...
and the rate of generation is constant...
So there's still the same number of coins going on the market...
and you're still a moron...

At this point I feel that you are just throwing random insults at me
Not once have you provided any evidence, and I have provided statistical evidence that proves higher difficulty = less BTC

Just admit you have no idea what you are talking about, since evidently you are denying the nature of Bitcoin itself, and we can be done with this discussion.

Edit: In case you still don't understand...
On 6/7/2011 the difficulty was 567358 and I generated 1.29 BTC that day, worth $23.1 each (total $30 that day)
Yesterday, at the currenty difficulty I generated 0.49 BTC, worth the current market price (total $6.8 yesterday)
I don't know how to make it any more clear.

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kiwiasian
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July 24, 2011, 05:10:38 AM
 #36

Just what exactly are you two disagreeing about?!

I'm claiming that the difficulty went up so each miner generates less bitcoins (lesser supply per person) and thus the price per bitcoin should go up.

I don't know what he is claiming, other than the fact I'm an stupid idiot and a moron.

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myrkul
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July 24, 2011, 05:20:42 AM
 #37

Just what exactly are you two disagreeing about?!

I'm claiming that the difficulty went up so each miner generates less bitcoins (lesser supply per person) and thus the price per bitcoin should go up.

I don't know what he is claiming, other than the fact I'm an stupid idiot and a moron.

Close. I'm also claiming you have exactly 0 knowledge of the most basic economic principles.

Price is based on total supply compared to total demand.

Total supply is relatively constant, and will remain so until the reward drops. ~300/hour.

Price will go up only if demand increases, not simply from your desire to make the same amount of money.

Sorry if this is disappointing.

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joulesbeef
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July 24, 2011, 05:25:14 AM
 #38

I had intended this to be a fun and mostly meaningless discussion.

I think yall are arguing about two different things.

Personal rates of bitcoins change with difficulty.

global rates try to stay the same with difficulty which is it' entire purpose.

when the blocks reduce to 25 bitcoin each, global rates will be cut in half and so will individual miners rates.

mooo for rent
Xephan
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July 24, 2011, 05:56:53 AM
 #39

BTC generated per person declines...
Which I just explained...

Unfortunately that's not what your initial statement is about.

It likely won't change

Current investors don't seem to understand less supply = higher price

At the current difficulty the supply of mined bitcoins has dwindled waaaay down and yet the price has been more or less the same or just going down...when it gets reduced to 25 BTC I doubt anyone is going to pay attention. So all miners are screwed.

You see, you were talking about investors and higher prices. Basic economics and common sense here, investors make judgements based on the total market. They are not going to care if 1 person can only make 1 unit if the whole market is making ten thousands of units.

So supply in this context can only refer to total market supply.

So either you don't know enough economics to know what supply means, or you misunderstood how bitcoin generation works or both.



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netrin
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July 25, 2011, 04:41:28 PM
 #40

I had intended this to be a fun and mostly meaningless discussion.

Hey joulesbeef, I received a meaningful inflation chart out of this discussion. I'm a satisfied poster. Smiley


YearNew BTCs/yrStart BTCsEnd BTCsBTC Increase
2009262500002625000infinite
2010262500026250005250000100.0%
201126250005250000787500050.0%
2012262500078750001050000033.3%
20131312500105000001181250012.5%
20141312500118125001312500011.1%
20151312500131250001443750010.0%
2016131250014437500157500009.1%
201765625015750000164062504.2%
201865625016406250170625004.0%
201965625017062500177187503.8%
202065625017718750183750003.7%
202132812518375000187031251.8%
202232812518703125190312501.8%
202332812519031250193593751.7%
202432812519359375196875001.7%
2025164062.51968750019851562.50.8%
2026164062.519851562.5200156250.8%
2027164062.52001562520179687.50.8%
2028164062.520179687.5203437500.8%

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