Poker: hands analysis, useful stuff and general discussions

[HugoStiglitz]

I finally managed to reload some hands to the new database, so I am ready to start hand discussions. Hope, it will increase an interest to the topic. Sometimes I will share hands with stopping action on the decision I doubt to avoid result oriented opinions. Today I have quite a non-standard spot to discuss.


Top 3 of live event satellite. First and second places get 5.5k$ worth packages on EPT event, third place gets something like 80$.

1) What would you do here - all-in or just call?
2) Why would you choose this option?
3) If you choose to call, what are your plans for turn and river?

[1714865766]

1714865766

[1714865766]

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[1714865766]

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[Don Pedro Dinero]

I finally managed to reload some hands to the new database, so I am ready to start hand discussions. Hope, it will increase an interest to the topic. Sometimes I will share hands with stopping action on the decision I doubt to avoid result oriented opinions. Today I have quite a non-standard spot to discuss.


Top 3 of live event satellite. First and second places get 5.5k$ worth packages on EPT event, third place gets something like 80$.

1) What would you do here - all-in or just call?
2) Why would you choose this option?
3) If you choose to call, what are your plans for turn and river?

All in because of the stack to pot ratio (2 to 1). I am the short stack at the table and I need to protect from straight draws and high cards. If he calls, most times he is going to have a better hand (like OP), but I still have backdoor flush draw and backdoor gutshout, lol!

The problem is, I don’t get value from weaker hands and don’t make stronger hands fold, but I can’t think of a better way of playing the hand.
 
If I call, it is quite likely that a high card will appear in the turn (around 51% chance) and then I have to check because donking has no sense and if the rival bets I have to guess if he is bluffing or not to decide if I fold. Most times he is going to have overcards, and checking means he can check behind and get two free cards. I see less likely straight draws with 79 or 57 but those hands would probably pay all in flop, and again, I don't want to check turn because he can have two free cards to complete the draw.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

Bump.

I haven't seen many experts in poker on this forum so, I'm not surprised that this hand didn't get any other reply but I'm interested in knowing what OP says about it.

[tokeweed]

I finally managed to reload some hands to the new database, so I am ready to start hand discussions. Hope, it will increase an interest to the topic. Sometimes I will share hands with stopping action on the decision I doubt to avoid result oriented opinions. Today I have quite a non-standard spot to discuss.


Top 3 of live event satellite. First and second places get 5.5k$ worth packages on EPT event, third place gets something like 80$.

1) What would you do here - all-in or just call?
2) Why would you choose this option?
3) If you choose to call, what are your plans for turn and river?

All in because of the stack to pot ratio (2 to 1). I am the short stack at the table and I need to protect from straight draws and high cards. If he calls, most times he is going to have a better hand (like OP), but I still have backdoor flush draw and backdoor gutshout, lol!

The problem is, I don’t get value from weaker hands and don’t make stronger hands fold, but I can’t think of a better way of playing the hand.
 
If I call, it is quite likely that a high card will appear in the turn (around 51% chance) and then I have to check because donking has no sense and if the rival bets I have to guess if he is bluffing or not to decide if I fold. Most times he is going to have overcards, and checking means he can check behind and get two free cards. I see less likely straight draws with 79 or 57 but those hands would probably pay all in flop, and again, I don't want to check turn because he can have two free cards to complete the draw.

I agree for the most part but the fact that Hero is short stacked makes going all in the best option here.  Calling is bad since the J, Q, K and the A could hit villain's range.  We are also oop, so c/c with our stack would make our hand hard to play.

If ever we are vs an over pair then we have 5 outs for two pair and trips, plus the back door outs you mentioned.

Edit:  And there's enough dead money in the pot to make this a good shove.

[HugoStiglitz]

I had a nearly same opinion, but I was not sure what range my opponents are going to call vs my all-in. It's quite a specific ICM spot and, unfortunately, free Simple Nash doesn't allow to calculate equilibrium on a postflop, so the only way to analyze this hand I have is to do it intuitively. Result:




Another satellite spot. 18 players are left, top-10 get 215$ ticket. I am on the 2nd place at the start of the hand and there are 5-6 players with nearly same stacks 2-3bb lower than me and 4 players with 3-4bb stacks. Average stack is 185k, average stack for top-11 (bubble) - ~304k. It's new table, so I don't have any information on my opponents.



That's what Simple Nash tells about openshove:




Does anybody know, why there is so big difference between results of calculation equilibrium on Malmuth-Harville and Malmuth-Weitzman models? I was pretty sure open-shove should be a +EV decision. The only question was about comparing different actions and choosing the most profitable. But after calculation, I became really confused. It will be great if somebody can explain the difference between 2 models. If it appears Malmuth-Weitzman to be right, what do you think about a plan for the hand? Should I play raise/call, raise/fold vs someone or maybe limp is the best option here?

[tokeweed]

The thing is tho if you're gonna play T8s oop then c/c flop just to fold when there's pressure on the turn, then it would be better to fold preflop.

And it's not like you're check/shoving just top pair in that spot.  You could do it with strong hands like your sets as well as semi bluffs like oesd's.

The dead money in the pot makes it a profitable shove even if villain was gonna fold his bluffing range anyway imho.

[Betwrong]

I finally managed to reload some hands to the new database, so I am ready to start hand discussions. Hope, it will increase an interest to the topic. Sometimes I will share hands with stopping action on the decision I doubt to avoid result oriented opinions. Today I have quite a non-standard spot to discuss.


Top 3 of live event satellite. First and second places get 5.5k$ worth packages on EPT event, third place gets something like 80$.

1) What would you do here - all-in or just call?

I would go all-in in this situation.

2) Why would you choose this option?

I presume that professional players rarely bluff on the pre-flop. It is most likely that BTN had good cards in the beginning but seeing that the flop is no good news for him and seeing me(Hero) checking he decided to scare me off. So I would make him think I have three of a kind by going all-in.

P.S. I was reading the thread and started writing my reply before reading further. Now I see that I was right on BTN having good cards, but I was wrong with going all-in, I'd lost everything.

[mostkey]

although this is very helpful, but we should be able to know where there are some people who ignore the guide and do not want to read. always wanted to jump into gambling. poker is a game that is identical to the luck of the card. and sometimes beginners who ventured to do the bluff game always get the luck

[Betwrong]

although this is very helpful, but we should be able to know where there are some people who ignore the guide and do not want to read. always wanted to jump into gambling. poker is a game that is identical to the luck of the card. and sometimes beginners who ventured to do the bluff game always get the luck

So, did you mean to say "sometimes" or "always", because those words contradict each other.

If you play poker long enough you can eventually notice that those aggressive bluffers don't last long at the table. They may be winning during the first 20-30 minutes but they never make it to the top places. Poker is not a game of pure chance but a game of skill. Proper bluffing requires skill, it's not that simple.

Can a newbie, having no clue, win a prestigious poker tournament? I personally doubt that, but I think we should ask HugoStiglitz about the probability of such a win.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

although this is very helpful, but we should be able to know where there are some people who ignore the guide and do not want to read. always wanted to jump into gambling. poker is a game that is identical to the luck of the card. and sometimes beginners who ventured to do the bluff game always get the luck

So, did you mean to say "sometimes" or "always", because those words contradict each other.

If you play poker long enough you can eventually notice that those aggressive bluffers don't last long at the table. They may be winning during the first 20-30 minutes but they never make it to the top places. Poker is not a game of pure chance but a game of skill. Proper bluffing requires skill, it's not that simple.

Can a newbie, having no clue, win a prestigious poker tournament? I personally doubt that, but I think we should ask HugoStiglitz about the probability of such a win.

He just wrote a great shitpost.

A newbie can win a big poker tournament, although it is unlikely.

Another satellite spot. 18 players are left, top-10 get 215$ ticket. I am on the 2nd place at the start of the hand and there are 5-6 players with nearly same stacks 2-3bb lower than me and 4 players with 3-4bb stacks. Average stack is 185k, average stack for top-11 (bubble) - ~304k. It's new table, so I don't have any information on my opponents.

...

Does anybody know, why there is so big difference between results of calculation equilibrium on Malmuth-Harville and Malmuth-Weitzman models? I was pretty sure open-shove should be a +EV decision. The only question was about comparing different actions and choosing the most profitable. But after calculation, I became really confused. It will be great if somebody can explain the difference between 2 models. If it appears Malmuth-Weitzman to be right, what do you think about a plan for the hand? Should I play raise/call, raise/fold vs someone or maybe limp is the best option here?

I don’t know about the difference between those models, but I would go all in. I prefer playing aggressive during the final stages because the price structures rewards aggression. Again, if someone calls, you are going to be behind on average, because he is going to have an OP or higher cards but many times you’ll get the blinds.

[HugoStiglitz]

Result of the last hand:

Can a newbie, having no clue, win a prestigious poker tournament? I personally doubt that, but I think we should ask HugoStiglitz about the probability of such a win.

I can't call to mind the last situation when a newbie won a major tournament. Today, even full amateurs, who wins events like EPT, PartyLive or WSOP, usually have a big experience. The nearest examples I managed to remember are Jan Bendik, who has first cash on thehendonmob dated in 2005, and Sebastian Sorensson, who claims him to already play for a few years. I can't understand what exactly mostkey means, but now newbies really need a lot of luck to start winning right after learning rules.

For example, today is holding the final table of PartyPoker Millions Barcelona Main Event. The list of finalists: https://uk.pokernews.com/tours/partypoker-live/partypoker-live-millions-grand-final-barcelona/main-event/chips.htm
If you check their results on thehendonmob, you can see everybody are very experienced in playing live tournaments.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I think you were unlucky because in both hands your opponents had top range, but that usually happens, when we lose a hand we tend to question the way we played it, much more often than when we win, even though we sometimes win hands after playing them incorrectly.

[HugoStiglitz]

I think you were unlucky because in both hands your opponents had top range, but that usually happens, when we lose a hand we tend to question the way we played it, much more often than when we win, even though we sometimes win hands after playing them incorrectly.

Yes, that's poker in a short. I had very little doubts about hand w T8s, but as I've already written, it was quite a specific ICM spot, just second suchlike situation in my poker life. Nice to see everybody here agree with the line I chose. As for the hand with 88, I didn't manage to get an answer to the question about a difference in calculation even from Simple Nash's developers.


Here is an exciting recent news from the poker world.

Phil Galfond announced the launching of his poker room RunItOnce Poker. It will consist of 2 phases. The opening is planned for the summer, but there will be only cash games available for the starting period. Phil promises sensible rake and unique VIP system, which should satisfy both professional and amateurs. Sit&Gos, multi-table tournaments, and high limits will be launched on the second phase. The date of it's appearing is still unclaimed.

Here is the link to the post about it in Phil's blog. He told he is going to describe the process there.

Interesting to see, how Phil is going to run so ambitious project. Poker market is shrinking year after year, Pokerstars monopoly seems to be dominating. But there was no any serious opponent for them since FullTilt's crush in 2011. I can't assume how big is RunItOnce's chances to succeed, but if they manage to do it, it will be one of the best things in the history of online poker.

[tokeweed]

^  Is he finally commiting to it?  He already announced about starting a poker site years ago with lower rake, grinder friendly atmosphere, etc...  But nothing really happened.  Everybody thought it fell thru.

Anyway we'll see this summer.  I hope it accepts crypto.

[HugoStiglitz]

^  Is he finally commiting to it?  He already announced about starting a poker site years ago with lower rake, grinder friendly atmosphere, etc...  But nothing really happened.  Everybody thought it fell thru.

Anyway we'll see this summer.  I hope it accepts crypto.

As far as I remember, he started working on the room at the end of 2015, when Amaya announced significant reducing of rakeback. Then I listened something like he faced unexpected difficulties and that the process appeared to be much harder than he had thought, so he would need much more time to do everything he wants. I haven't tracked the situation for a long time until yesterday.

As for the crypto, I think there is very high probability they will accept at least BTC, but I'm not sure about playing for it.

[tokeweed]

Nice.  But it wouldn't really be problem if they accept BTC and convert them into USD like how ACR does it.  As long as that payment option is on there then it's fine.  

I'm sure Galfond has heard of BTC from the likes of Doug Polk...  He has come a looong way since their 'Ship it Holla Balla' days.

[HugoStiglitz]

Wow, I am watching the live broadcast from EPT Monte-Carlo. Pokerstars established the new rule and set shot-clock system. Now every player have only 30 seconds on every decesion and limited number of cards, which can be used to get additional 30 seconds. Thanks to PartyPoker, at least in the issue of live tournaments Amaya started to do something  

Nice.  But it wouldn't really be problem if they accept BTC and convert them into USD like how ACR does it.  As long as that payment option is on there then it's fine.  

I'm sure Galfond has heard of BTC from the likes of Doug Polk...  He has come a looong way since their 'Ship it Holla Balla' days.

I suppose Phil knows enough about crypto. I heard it's very popular payment method among American players in deals like buying or selling shares and similar.

[tokeweed]

At big live tourney's...?  Cool.  I didn't know BTC is a thing for live poker pros.  I've been seeing it mentioned around 2+2, but other than that, I didn't think some of them used it regularly.

[HugoStiglitz]

At big live tourney's...?  Cool.  I didn't know BTC is a thing for live poker pros.  I've been seeing it mentioned around 2+2, but other than that, I didn't think some of them used it regularly.

Yes. In Main Events from second days, in Highroller and Super Highroller tournaments from a start. This old-fashioned square near the dealer is exactly the clock. Watching for a bubble became more exciting, but it looks a little bit funny  

[HugoStiglitz]

Galfond wrote the second post about soon launching of RunItOnce Poker. It was devoted to auxiliary soft.

In a nutshell: HUDs will be prohibited. Instead of it, they are going to use dynamical avatars, which will reflect player's style considering only hands you've played with this specific player at one table. Small example:



Furthermore, if I caught it up clearly, there will be only anonymous tables, where every player will randomly get an alias consisting of a first name and a last initial.

Being, like I call myself, "an advanced amateur", I like the first idea with implementing dynamical avatars and not allowing to use HUDs, but there is also a flaw in such approach because competent regulars can't track suspicious opponents and check if they are bots. I hope, Phil has enough power to do this job inside the company. However, I completely don't like making all tables anonymous. I think writing notes and remembering old hands is an essential part of the technical skill, so I don't understand what's the point in such decision. It seems like Phil and his team got little bit confused with reinventing the wheel.

Link to full post: https://www.runitonce.eu/news/2-laying-the-groundwork/