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Author Topic: Why we may be stuck in the current range for long  (Read 496 times)
yonjitsu
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March 22, 2018, 06:45:29 AM
 #81

It's the bearish pattern that's prolonging our agony may be a cause of corrections and events related to cryptocurrencies. Others who are also not good enough in hodling will eventually give in and will sell their crypto assets during crisis. If these will always continue, then we will expect to be stuck in this price range for long.

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March 22, 2018, 01:06:45 PM
 #82

Well, personally I don't believe in that stabilizing thing. So far the longer the price had been stable, the stronger was the next burst. Bitcoin and other cryptocoins are internally unstable because there is nothing that would make them stable. Major fiat currencies have whole economies backing up the value of a currency. Bitcoin's value, on the contrary, depends entirely on speculators interest. It is interesting that a couple years ago this thought would have met a strong opposition but by now oppositionists seem to gave died out already.
Bubble or not, it doesn't matter. Bitcoin really helps many people to earn big money so it has the right to exist. For me, Bitcoin is a tool that everyone uses for their own purposes. Speculators really constantly inflate and burst bubbles. But there are many people who buy bitcoin for long lasting hold. For them, bitcoin is not a bubble and without sterilizing so many coins, speculators would not have such opportunities.

But it seems that you don't see the whole picture. No one is questioning Bitcoin's right to exist. With that said, however, we should keep in mind that while it may in fact help some people earn big money, this necessarily comes at the expense of others. As long as Bitcoin was growing, this didn't matter. But now when Bitcoin has retreated half of its former price, it is no longer the case. As Warren Buffett loves to say, only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.



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March 22, 2018, 05:10:43 PM
 #83

too many negative news for crypto which makes the price seems stuck at those range because if the price has starting to rise up then we will see several bad news for crypto and the price back too dropped again however being stuck is more better rather than dropped to the bottom so i think the current price still high and nothing to worried

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March 30, 2018, 05:02:14 PM
 #84

too many negative news for crypto which makes the price seems stuck at those range because if the price has starting to rise up then we will see several bad news for crypto and the price back too dropped again however being stuck is more better rather than dropped to the bottom so i think the current price still high and nothing to worried

It is not the news. It is rampant and obsessive speculation finally tapering off and wearing out as it should have been as people lose their interest after Bitcoin peaked in December. No more milk today. You can think of it as Bitcoin's speculative bubble deflating to its real value which is determined by the coin's real use as a means of payment in the Internet. This is a bad thing for self-proclaimed "professional" traders blindly expecting short squeezes and new highs or whatever, but it may be a good thing after all for the long-term success of Bitcoin and crypto in general. As prices go down and stabilize a little, we may see real adoption expanding soon thereafter.



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March 31, 2018, 07:05:59 AM
 #85

This is a bad thing for self-proclaimed "professional" traders blindly expecting short squeezes and new highs

The bad thing is people that only read half of what is right in front of them. I never said I expected it, I said it was one of two things that could happen. Closing your eyes to one side of the market is equally dangerous as everything is possible and you need to weigh the probabilities.

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March 31, 2018, 09:28:41 AM
 #86

This is a bad thing for self-proclaimed "professional" traders blindly expecting short squeezes and new highs

The bad thing is people that only read half of what is right in front of them. I never said I expected it, I said it was one of two things that could happen. Closing your eyes to one side of the market is equally dangerous as everything is possible and you need to weigh the probabilities.

Indeed you are now backing down on your previous claims, now that the price fell below $7k and has all the chances to crash even lower. If the price went to $14-15, you would be shouting at every corner something along the lines "go back to drawing pretty lines on your charts and see how far that gets you". But it doesn't really matter what you say or claim, you are just a loud mouth thinking too much of yourself, kinda "I am a professional trader and I see the future". You see nothing simply because $12k turned by now into what $20k had been a month or so ago, that is, an impenetrable ceiling at which lots of people will be happy to sell out and get off for good.

Now we shall see how $9k goes.



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March 31, 2018, 09:49:33 AM
 #87

Indeed you are now backing down on your previous claims,

Really?

I would have to disagree that the resistance at 12k is "an impenetrable selling wall". There is a consolidation taking place which has found that resistance at 12k and also support around 8.3k. When that happens many traders will play the range and buy the bottom and sell the top repeatedly until it breaks out. That means if it does try and breakout upwards there will be many shorts trapped that will need to buy to cover, that will be the fuel for the next spurt upwards. Equally the opposite is true if it breaks down. Anyone who thinks they can predict which of those two things will happen is fooling themselves. Trading isn't about predicting which way it will breakout but rather recognising it when it happens and then reacting quickly to that.

What previous claim am I backing down from?

You on the other hand.

Now it seems that 12k turned into an impenetrable selling wall which will be hard to crush because those who bought at that and higher levels will now be trying to close their positions at all costs. And the longer we stay at sub-10k levels, the more resistance will be building above 10k.

~snip image

So we are kinda stuck in this range of 8-11k.

Well, maybe I should have clarified it a little further in OP. I don't mean that 12k itself is impenetrable. It is what sits above this mark which may be quite hard to pass through.

By definition, impenetrable means that it is conclusively not possible to breach... Even the biggest bear and disbelievers wouldn't put it beyond Bitcoin to at least make many more runs past 12k before its eventual fate is met.

...

Even if or when btc makes it past 12 k again, doesn't mean anyone's a genius or a fool, either. Just some of us get luckier.

Hey, guys, that was just a figure of speech,.....

Hey OP, yeah, I think we knew, even though that's not really how figures of speech work Wink

The 'impenetrable wall' phrase in the OP was the only reason I replied and gave an example of how it could be breached. As you've already backed down from your claim and now refer to it as 'a figure' of speech you have accepted the argument I put forward.

Why you feel the need to repeatedly misrepresent the argument I put forward even after I've pointed out to you that I didn't make any prediction several times I find difficult to fathom. The only two possibilities I can think of are either you really don't understand what I said as it is too complicated for you or you are deliberately doing it to satisfy some purile need.

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March 31, 2018, 09:54:53 AM
 #88

Go away. Finally.



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March 31, 2018, 09:59:05 AM
 #89

Go away. Finally.

I already did twice but you decided to lie about what I said so I had to come back and correct it.

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March 31, 2018, 06:43:45 PM
 #90

This is a bad thing for self-proclaimed "professional" traders blindly expecting short squeezes and new highs

The bad thing is people that only read half of what is right in front of them. I never said I expected it, I said it was one of two things that could happen. Closing your eyes to one side of the market is equally dangerous as everything is possible and you need to weigh the probabilities.

it's very nice when a person blindly believes in a crypto currency and does not even suspect about possible risks. Everyone who decided to link their destiny with the crypto currency should understand that he will always be at risk of losing his money or on the contrary get a good profit .

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April 03, 2018, 12:13:15 PM
 #91

This is a bad thing for self-proclaimed "professional" traders blindly expecting short squeezes and new highs

The bad thing is people that only read half of what is right in front of them. I never said I expected it, I said it was one of two things that could happen. Closing your eyes to one side of the market is equally dangerous as everything is possible and you need to weigh the probabilities.

it's very nice when a person blindly believes in a crypto currency and does not even suspect about possible risks. Everyone who decided to link their destiny with the crypto currency should understand that he will always be at risk of losing his money or on the contrary get a good profit .

Well it's not going to be like this forever. Though i'm also not the type to go all in on crypto, i also think that in time, this market will make big differences in the lives of holders and believers. It just depends on how long you can hold your ground in times like these.

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April 03, 2018, 12:58:31 PM
 #92

This is a bad thing for self-proclaimed "professional" traders blindly expecting short squeezes and new highs

The bad thing is people that only read half of what is right in front of them. I never said I expected it, I said it was one of two things that could happen. Closing your eyes to one side of the market is equally dangerous as everything is possible and you need to weigh the probabilities.

it's very nice when a person blindly believes in a crypto currency and does not even suspect about possible risks. Everyone who decided to link their destiny with the crypto currency should understand that he will always be at risk of losing his money or on the contrary get a good profit .

Well it's not going to be like this forever. Though i'm also not the type to go all in on crypto, i also think that in time, this market will make big differences in the lives of holders and believers. It just depends on how long you can hold your ground in times like these.

As I see it, there is a vicious circle of sorts. For Bitcoin, or any other coin, for the record, to gain traction in the real world and commerce, it needs to be cheap both in terms of transactions and just cheap in terms of price. Otherwise, people will be hoarding it but that will obviously lead to higher prices. But higher prices of a coin don't match the requirement of being cheap. And we seem to get stuck forever in this negative feedback loop.



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April 03, 2018, 01:56:21 PM
 #93

As i see the crypto markets today, it turned green from red and it looks promising as bitcoin started to rise. Would this be the start of an uptrend that will be a game changer for cryptocurrencies' status?

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April 03, 2018, 04:10:24 PM
 #94

As i see the crypto markets today, it turned green from red and it looks promising as bitcoin started to rise. Would this be the start of an uptrend that will be a game changer for cryptocurrencies' status?

We have risen measly 10% or even less than that, given that we are still trading slightly above a long-time bottom. This could be construed as a dead cat's bounce, only it is a dead cat which has been dead for at least for 3 months already. We are well in a downward spiral by any metric. And if 3 months ago it had been a question of ever going back to $20k again, then 2 months ago it became a question of breaking out of $12k, while now it is more about trying to reach for $9-10k. The all-crushing ceiling goes lower and lower.



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April 03, 2018, 10:52:22 PM
 #95

This is a bad thing for self-proclaimed "professional" traders blindly expecting short squeezes and new highs

The bad thing is people that only read half of what is right in front of them. I never said I expected it, I said it was one of two things that could happen. Closing your eyes to one side of the market is equally dangerous as everything is possible and you need to weigh the probabilities.

it's very nice when a person blindly believes in a crypto currency and does not even suspect about possible risks. Everyone who decided to link their destiny with the crypto currency should understand that he will always be at risk of losing his money or on the contrary get a good profit .

Well it's not going to be like this forever. Though i'm also not the type to go all in on crypto, i also think that in time, this market will make big differences in the lives of holders and believers. It just depends on how long you can hold your ground in times like these.

As I see it, there is a vicious circle of sorts. For Bitcoin, or any other coin, for the record, to gain traction in the real world and commerce, it needs to be cheap both in terms of transactions and just cheap in terms of price. Otherwise, people will be hoarding it but that will obviously lead to higher prices. But higher prices of a coin don't match the requirement of being cheap. And we seem to get stuck forever in this negative feedback loop.

Traders won't be able to gain any profit without this circle of sorts. If the price doesn't go up, then it won't go down and vise versa. Some people seek for stability but if we go for this, it's not going to be as healthy and this might make bitcoin die. Others think that stability is better than experiencing frequent fluctuations of the price however the traders I able to profit from this volatility. It may seem bad for traders to blindly expect for the price to rise however this comes with the risk of trading.
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