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Author Topic: Once again, Holy difficulty jump, Batman!!!!  (Read 6841 times)
al.matic
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October 23, 2013, 01:17:27 PM
 #41

KnC is shipping 550GH/s miners, almost 500 units per day. That equals to about 250TH/s daily!

According to order numbers, they sold close to 10000 units (order numbers below 7500 were supposed to be shipped by 15.Oct., I don't think many more people bought them, even whenprice dropped).

10000 * 550GH/s = 5.5 PH/s increase in about next 20 days

Did I get it right?
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October 23, 2013, 02:36:28 PM
 #42

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

In 2.6 days we are all doomed, its like end of the world...

Bitcoin Difficulty:   267,731,249
Next Difficulty: 410,388,495 (+53.28%)

armodilloben
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October 23, 2013, 02:52:04 PM
 #43

And people complain because they are losing money......never ceases to amaze.  If you didn't see this coming, you have no one to blame but yourself. It has been covered extensively for months..(almost a year at this point) that this would happen.

The real kick in the teeth is that people have been waiting for many months (or over a year) for hardware that was promised to have shipped long ago - when it was going to be worth something!  This difficulty rise is just pouring salt in the wounds for many people...

Alas, the ability to print money is relegated to the rich yet again...  go figure.

Another way of looking at that is it was THEFT. A company had produced the unit, mined with it and then shipped 12 months late by any definition that is theft.
I think that it is everything but not theft. It should be fraud. They use the money of the customers to mine bitcoins, they do not communicate on a trustworthy base (they throw smoke grenades all the time) and eventually, when the mining devices are not cost-sufficient anymore in regions where electricity does cost something, they ship it, having been able to consumate all financial benefits but still giving the customer all the risks.

Fraud. Coldly calculated, they tell customers false facts (those facts are primarily for preventing the customer to withdraw their order). Unfortunately, they are still given a forum and opportunity to make advertising on bitcointalk.org - but still i understand what implications exist when locking out particular corporates based on accusations and not real, solid jurisdictions. But after seeing the behaviour of certain BFL people, i am pretty sure, that it will not take too long until the legal jackhammer will hit BFL.

Nicely said, but they already make tons of money which they can just close down the company and run away and its pretty hard to hit them legally cause its Bitcoin.

Oh, thanks for the flowers.

---- Care, Offtopic: BFL Rant following ----
What is needed is a change on the mining-producer-field. BUT: it is almost impossible for decent producers to make a market entry. Why is that so?

To produce devices, you need to have a starting capital of some millions. Nobody would give this capital as a private person, because why would you invest millions of your own money in a high-risk field?  U need to get an investor - that most likely will not give his capital for a production of devices that are used solely for the mining of a currency that might completely vanish in the next weeks/months.

So, the preorder-technique is an important feature, because the customer takes solely the risks of bitcoin crashing, destruction of the hardware etc. But the customer may also take the chances, he is able to mine bitcoins and , given the case that the BTC price rises, he will hit a decent profit.

So, go to hardware producers and talk to them. They will be able to give you very, very vague (and certainly not future-promising) specs, which will most likely not motivate investors.

You are one of an ever growing number of hardware producers, you have to make a clear, open communication, otherwise you are not trustworthy. So you will communicate to you customers that the "time to shipment" is going to be 12-18 months. Who of you guys would order?
Furthermore, BFL actually ships some devices, allowing them to make small development leaps and therefor offer better specfications. Althoug we are using words like "vaporware" - do you think, the classic potential customer can decide between vaporware specifics and realistic specifics from trustworthy producers?

Keep in mind we are talking about a german producer, and in Germany, due to a decent law, you have to have a deposit guarantee - meaning if a customer pays 200 Euros for a product that is NOT EXISTENT (preorder), you also have to deposit the same amount, with factor 1,1 - 1,4 (in the  worst case, 1.4*200 which is 280 Euros.) So you would have a legal guarantee that your deposited money is not being embezzled.

Coming back to what BFL does: they take the customer's money and have the benefits (mining BTC all the time..... since they are the producers, they have the shortest "time to market" any miner could have). The behaviour is, being screened under several perspectives, just SNAFU:

- Legal: Fraud. The real facts and communicated facts do not match.
- Economical: Ripoff. The customer takes the risk, the corporate takes the gain. Ever heard of a Win Win Situation?`
- Sustainability = near 0. I mean Lol, did they already hear about it?
- Customer Relationship Management: In Munich we have a saying: Every day, a stupid person walks through the Sendlinger Tor (famous place in Munich) - you just have to find them. Looks like this is the standard approach of BFL. Why even bother with the current changing behaviour of customers that obviously happens (The market makes his own decisions and products - HELLO we talk about a crowd-created currency.....)? Bitcoin does in my eyes gives so much more potential, let alone speak of the target audience.
- Marketing: Just Great. Best thing you can do is take a VERY important person of your corporate (like COO) and then make him insult your target audience that brings up JUSTIFIED arguments. Always works.

I hope i do not get banned for off-topic ranting - but the rant is strong in me - sorry for that.

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October 23, 2013, 07:55:53 PM
 #44

KnC is shipping 550GH/s miners, almost 500 units per day. That equals to about 250TH/s daily!

According to order numbers, they sold close to 10000 units (order numbers below 7500 were supposed to be shipped by 15.Oct., I don't think many more people bought them, even whenprice dropped).

10000 * 550GH/s = 5.5 PH/s increase in about next 20 days

Did I get it right?

Probably not.  Not every unit is a Jupiter and Order # =/= total paid orders.  In one of the posts KNC indicates the Sept/Oct batch was 1500 units (and at the time roughly 1 week in Oct they had shipped 500 with ~1000 units to go).   If you estimate the distribution of models (Mercury, Saturn, Jupiter) by looking at the public order tracking thread it looks like an average of ~0.4 Th/s per unit.  No idea if that is representative of all sales but it is a good place to start.

So that is ~600 TH/s not 5,500 TH/s for Batch 1.   It has taken KNC ~23 days and they haven't shipped all units, lets guesstimate they ship the last unit by Friday that will be 1500 units in 25 days.  Daily production is more like 60 units per day. They likely were slower initially and had a 4 day halt in the middle so their current production rate is probably double that.  Of course this doesn't mean the network is going up another 600 TH/s next week as most of those units have already been deployed.   

Note this shouldn't be taken as an attack on KNC they have done remarkably well with only a couple issues your numbers just aren't even in the right magnitude.  No doubt that eventually KNC will ship >5 PH/s but they aren't going to do it in batch 1.    Batch 2 is probably larger maybe 2 PH/s but KNC has indicated that won't ship until mid Nov at the earliest.  Rough estimate for total network hashrate based on presale amounts and other guestimates is ~10 PH/s (+/-20%) by end of year.
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October 31, 2013, 07:49:05 AM
 #45

Well then those ASIC manufacturers are morons for letting the money get away like that.  I'd have those ASICs pimping for me for 3 months each before allowing the people who paid for them to have them.

Actually despite what others have said, it's not out of the realm of possibility that this is in fact broadly what happened - that all ASIC manufacturers did mine on their products for some time before shipping them out. (Though three months is definitely ruled out as too long. Three weeks... perhaps)

First off, we know that's exactly what ASICMINER did and is doing, since it was their explicitly stated business model all along. Secondly, this is consistent with the properties of an exponential graph. Shifting an exponential curve to the left is mathematically equivalent to shifting it up.


I can guarantee KnC did not.  They got chips , and shipped,  the company did what it promised,  the only one that I know of , that did so.


And for the tards , if you are one of the first ASIC companies of course you are not going to smash the network with difficulty,  more likely you would take your time with the deposited money,  not deliver and slowly ramp up the difficulty.

So the " it would have spiked if they mined with the capital" narrative is for children of course.

tiny rick !
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- Twitter @Kolin_Quark
wunkbone
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October 31, 2013, 02:16:38 PM
 #46

I guess it is another 40% hike this time.. not worth investing any ASIC....

The Transit Coin is on the way. help us to decide the path we have to follow:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1066969

http://tnttalk.org

TNT COIN SHOPPING MALL COMING SOON
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November 01, 2013, 11:00:43 AM
 #47

I guess it is another 40% hike this time.. not worth investing any ASIC....

Apparently Cointerra are spitting out 1TH miners for $3499 in "early Jan ."

never even heard of them , there are nice pictures of people on the website (some are even white) , so I'm sure its all trustworthy .

of note they only take Wire Transfer and Bitcoin, none of that , getting a refund funny business ha ha . 

i honestly can't comment on the company but i'm sure some people will find a 1TH miner for $3499 tempting.

tiny rick !
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rampalija
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November 01, 2013, 07:54:51 PM
 #48

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

In 2.6 days we are all doomed, its like end of the world...

Bitcoin Difficulty:   267,731,249
Next Difficulty: 410,388,495 (+53.28%)


i expect difficulty will be even higher

MelodyRowell
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November 02, 2013, 04:34:26 AM
 #49

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

In 2.6 days we are all doomed, its like end of the world...

Bitcoin Difficulty:   267,731,249
Next Difficulty: 410,388,495 (+53.28%)


i expect difficulty will be even higher

What you quoted is old, it should hit about 500-600 million now...
rampalija
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November 02, 2013, 06:38:55 AM
 #50

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

In 2.6 days we are all doomed, its like end of the world...

Bitcoin Difficulty:   267,731,249
Next Difficulty: 410,388,495 (+53.28%)


i expect difficulty will be even higher

What you quoted is old, it should hit about 500-600 million now...


wehn now?!?!   DIFF is 300 + milion

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November 02, 2013, 07:01:46 AM
 #51

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

In 2.6 days we are all doomed, its like end of the world...

Bitcoin Difficulty:   267,731,249
Next Difficulty: 410,388,495 (+53.28%)


i expect difficulty will be even higher

What you quoted is old, it should hit about 500-600 million now...


wehn now?!?!   DIFF is 300 + milion


Retarget Distance 3d 15hr
Est Next Difficulty 506 M

rampalija
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November 02, 2013, 07:03:36 AM
 #52

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

In 2.6 days we are all doomed, its like end of the world...

Bitcoin Difficulty:   267,731,249
Next Difficulty: 410,388,495 (+53.28%)


i expect difficulty will be even higher

What you quoted is old, it should hit about 500-600 million now...


wehn now?!?!   DIFF is 300 + milion

Retarget Distance 3d 15hr
Est Next Difficulty 506 M


+ or - 15 %, but i think it will be +

digitalindustry
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November 02, 2013, 11:35:37 AM
 #53

500 + for sure and i just saw a 60Gh single sell on Ebay for the cheap price of $1600.

the rest that are listed are over 2k -

: |

i expect these things will be everywhere soon - then a SHA256 explosion in the Alt sub forum ha ha .

tiny rick !
- https://voat.co/v/Contact/
- Twitter @Kolin_Quark
rampalija
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November 02, 2013, 12:05:04 PM
 #54

500 + for sure and i just saw a 60Gh single sell on Ebay for the cheap price of $1600.

the rest that are listed are over 2k -

: |

i expect these things will be everywhere soon - then a SHA256 explosion in the Alt sub forum ha ha .


yea but when they deliver that miners

thew3apon
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November 02, 2013, 02:34:30 PM
 #55

Don't buy please.. look

Bitcoin Difficulty:   390,928,787
Estimated Next Difficulty:   533,174,236 (+36.39%)

armodilloben
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November 11, 2013, 08:25:43 AM
 #56

I guess it is another 40% hike this time.. not worth investing any ASIC....

there are nice pictures of people on the website (some are even white) , so I'm sure its all trustworthy .


XD

Aahahhaah made my day.

I think a great deal of assessing one's trustworthyness is not only relying on the appearance but analysing the promises each firm did give in order to make promises to its customers regarding the ROI. Didn't cointerra screw this up?

rampalija
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November 12, 2013, 08:16:23 AM
 #57

500 + for sure and i just saw a 60Gh single sell on Ebay for the cheap price of $1600.

the rest that are listed are over 2k -

: |

i expect these things will be everywhere soon - then a SHA256 explosion in the Alt sub forum ha ha .

and you get your paypal account blocked if you buy minning shit

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