Senate reaches deal to end shutdown, avoid default - CNN.com

[Spekulatius]

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/10/16/politics/shutdown-showdown/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Price already falling hard - Was this whole rally built on default fantasies (hint at recent polls in this thread)?

[1713522014]

1713522014

[1713522014]

1713522014

[1713522014]

1713522014

[derpinheimer]

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/10/16/politics/shutdown-showdown/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Price already falling hard - Was this whole rally built on default fantasies (hint at recent polls in this thread)?

Wow, that explains it...

Incredible. (I dont mean I expect the price to crash hard, just that this explains the sudden panic.)

[uhoh]

Bear trap 

[Ivanhoe]

Selling because the US isn't going to default , beartraps aren't getting more obvious then this.

[Kluge]

USG wouldn't have defaulted anyway. It's something else.

[derpinheimer]

USG wouldn't have defaulted anyway. It's something else.

What is something else? The reason for the rise, or the reason for the drop?

[ElectricMucus]

I told you so. New war in syria 2016.

[Kluge]

USG wouldn't have defaulted anyway. It's something else.

What is something else? The reason for the rise, or the reason for the drop?

Wherever a USG default which wouldn't have happened is being used as reasoning.

[derpinheimer]

USG wouldn't have defaulted anyway. It's something else.

What is something else? The reason for the rise, or the reason for the drop?

Wherever a USG default which wouldn't have happened is being used as reasoning.

But.. its.. responsible, in part, for the rise... and, this current drop.. no? lol

[Kluge]

USG wouldn't have defaulted anyway. It's something else.

What is something else? The reason for the rise, or the reason for the drop?

Wherever a USG default which wouldn't have happened is being used as reasoning.

But.. its.. responsible, in part, for the rise... and, this current drop.. no? lol

... No, because the USG doesn't suddenly default just because the debt ceiling isn't raised. Unless day-traders are totally unfamiliar with the USG, it wouldn't have caused movement one way or the other.

[ElectricMucus]

USG wouldn't have defaulted anyway. It's something else.

What is something else? The reason for the rise, or the reason for the drop?

Wherever a USG default which wouldn't have happened is being used as reasoning.

But.. its.. responsible, in part, for the rise... and, this current drop.. no? lol

It's a combination of the gox situation, asic producers and the way the Chinese media reported on the US Govt shut-down.

[derpinheimer]

USG wouldn't have defaulted anyway. It's something else.

What is something else? The reason for the rise, or the reason for the drop?

Wherever a USG default which wouldn't have happened is being used as reasoning.

But.. its.. responsible, in part, for the rise... and, this current drop.. no? lol

It's a combination of the gox situation, asic producers and the way the Chinese media reported on the US Govt shut-down.

Gox - Ok, thats part of the rise.
ASIC - ?
Chinese media - ?

USG wouldn't have defaulted anyway. It's something else.

What is something else? The reason for the rise, or the reason for the drop?

Wherever a USG default which wouldn't have happened is being used as reasoning.

But.. its.. responsible, in part, for the rise... and, this current drop.. no? lol

... No, because the USG doesn't suddenly default just because the debt ceiling isn't raised. Unless day-traders are totally unfamiliar with the USG, it wouldn't have caused movement one way or the other.

So you think the timing of this announcement and the drop in USD/BTC is completely coincidental? I think not..

[Chalkbot]

Uh, so we are raising the debt ceiling... bitcoin down? Yeah no. Watch out bears.

[clock27]

probably just normal up and down with the prices like we all have seen many times before with billions of factors figuring into the equation

[Habeler876]

no effect on exchange rate here imo..... we all knew there would be no default anyway.

[TERA]

Why does everyone panic sell or panic buy whenever the U.S. government does something? I thought the bitcoin rise was about china, investment trusts, and increasing bit coin adoption, and wealth issues all over the globe. I thought bitcoin was worldwide.

[ElectricMucus]

Gox - Ok, thats part of the rise.
ASIC - ?
Chinese media - ?

ASIC: Producers are in China and they have to maintain a balance of funds to pay Bills, they probably have a mixture of yuan/usd/bitcoin and they sold usd for the other two.
Chinese media: Is genuinely concerned about the strength of the dollar and probably moved a lot of ASIC early adopters to hoard their coins this month, and brought more investors.

[adamstgBit]

the ending is funny 

[CoinDiver]

USG wouldn't have defaulted anyway. It's something else.

Perception.

[Spekulatius]

Why does everyone panic sell or panic buy whenever the U.S. government does something? I thought the bitcoin rise was about china, investment trusts, and increasing bit coin adoption, and wealth issues all over the globe. I thought bitcoin was worldwide.

The Chinese volume is virtually inflated by the Chinese exchanges' 0% foo on trades policy and massive bot activity therefore. You cannot compare Bitstamp or Gox volume to Chinese exchanges.

[ElectricMucus]

the ending is funny  

I know I can't really make a convincing bull. 

[Miz4r]

Why does everyone panic sell or panic buy whenever the U.S. government does something? I thought the bitcoin rise was about china, investment trusts, and increasing bit coin adoption, and wealth issues all over the globe. I thought bitcoin was worldwide.

Everyone? About 15k coins sold on Gox and a couple 1000 on Bitstamp counts for everyone? The Chinese exchanges have only dropped a few dollars, nothing to really write home about. You know how the saying goes: buy the rumour and sell the news. This is just a temporary pullback.

[N12]

Why does everyone panic sell or panic buy whenever the U.S. government does something? I thought the bitcoin rise was about china, investment trusts, and increasing bit coin adoption, and wealth issues all over the globe. I thought bitcoin was worldwide.

The Chinese volume is virtually inflated by the Chinese exchanges' 0% foo on trades policy and massive bot activity therefore. You cannot compare Bitstamp or Gox volume to Chinese exchanges.

To be honest, I'm having trouble believing their self-reported volumes in the first place, moreso than emptygox. Think about it, all you have to do to get more customers as an exchange is to get on bitcoincharts etc. and fabricate some volume, soon we will all jerk off about how it's growing and mention it everywhere, acting as their marketing squad.

In any event, they have to earn money somehow to cover their running costs. Any exorbitant withdrawal or deposit fees?

[TERA]

So I guess when we were discussing the rally we were like "well the chart looks like we're about to break out into another bubble to 500, but if the U.S. government doesn't default, it's off"... right?

[Miz4r]

So I guess when we were discussing the rally we were like "well the chart looks like we're about to break out into another bubble to 500, but if the U.S. government doesn't default, it's off"... right?

No. Once everybody starts cheering and becoming bullish you know that the market will start to shake things up so people become uncertain again. It's all part of the bigger picture, and if you can't see it, too bad.

[TERA]

I did see and play a retracement but not to $148 instantly - that seems completely off the chart.

[Zakryze]

Why do you think it's all panic sells? Maybe some people just wanna cash out a few bitcoins to buy christmas presents or spekulatius cookies.
I bet that there's also some of those old 3$/btc coins around and maybe some people just come back to it and sell since they need moneys, you'll never know.

[derpinheimer]

Why do you think it's all panic sells? Maybe some people just wanna cash out a few bitcoins to buy christmas presents or spekulatius cookies.
I bet that there's also some of those old 3$/btc coins around and maybe some people just come back to it and sell since they need moneys, you'll never know.

Because people are all going to agree at the same exact minutes that its time to sell their BTC to buy presents 

You cant be serious.

[windjc]

It's not panic sells. It's day traders. Buy the rumor sell the news. No one thought the US would default and then sold with shock and panic at the news! Lol!

Bitcoin markets just starting to behave with patterns, albeit less sophisticated and easier to play than the stock market.

[gizmoh]

It's not panic sells. It's day traders. Buy the rumor sell the news. No one thought the US would default and then sold with shock and panic at the news! Lol!

Bitcoin markets just starting to behave with patterns, albeit less sophisticated and easier to play than the stock market.

Well resumed. +1

[windjc]

USG wouldn't have defaulted anyway. It's something else.

What is something else? The reason for the rise, or the reason for the drop?

Wherever a USG default which wouldn't have happened is being used as reasoning.

But.. its.. responsible, in part, for the rise... and, this current drop.. no? lol

It's a combination of the gox situation, asic producers and the way the Chinese media reported on the US Govt shut-down.

No, it's day traders people! Gess. Such ignorance on here.

[theonewhowaskazu]

Just FYI, rather than this being an overestimate of the impact of avoiding a default, this might just be a correction, compensating for an overestimate of the probability of a default occurring in the first place.

[Habeler876]

Just FYI, rather than this being an overestimate of the impact of avoiding a default, this might just be a correction, compensating for an overestimate of the probability of a default occurring in the first place.

do you really think that was driving the bull run to begin with? i dont. but what do i know?! 

[theonewhowaskazu]

Just FYI, rather than this being an overestimate of the impact of avoiding a default, this might just be a correction, compensating for an overestimate of the probability of a default occurring in the first place.

do you really think that was driving the bull run to begin with? i dont. but what do i know?! 

I don't really know, or particularly care because its still trending up with or without it. Just saying this isn't necessarily a "buy on the dip" moment for day traders because the dip has the potential to be a good ~$5-10 lower.

[ArticMine]

Bear trap 

A bear trap baited with US politicians. 

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

The government shutdown nonsense was just political theater.

The reason for the small correction is simple if you look at a 7-day chart: the price was on a mini-exponential curve and started going up faster-than-exponential, which means it's virtually guaranteed to correct.



Nothing moves in a straight line. If it did, we'd be at mainstream-adoption prices by Christmas.

In sum, the price was already very overbought, so it was looking for any trigger to correct, and this news may have been it. But as an investor this is exactly the kind of thing you have to learn to see through. Anything in overbought territory will correct at the drop of a hat; don't get distracted by the style of hat it happens to be.

[chriswilmer]

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/10/16/politics/shutdown-showdown/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Price already falling hard - Was this whole rally built on default fantasies (hint at recent polls in this thread)?

It will be like the Silk Road crash. A bunch of people mistakenly think other people will sell... when not as many people sold as the bears expected, Bitcoin will seem "resilient" and the price will climb back.

[TERA]

I think what happens is day traders and bots panic sell and the large investors come out of the woodwork to accumulate the cheap coins. This leaves the day traders and bots (as a collective) needing to rebuy at a loss, creates an imbalance of force, and drives the price even higher than where it started.

[derpinheimer]

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/10/16/politics/shutdown-showdown/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Price already falling hard - Was this whole rally built on default fantasies (hint at recent polls in this thread)?

It will be like the Silk Road crash. A bunch of people mistakenly think other people will sell... when not as many people sold as the bears expected, Bitcoin will seem "resilient" and the price will climb back.

Incorrect; the price cannot drop because:

1. Gox is leader
2. Gox fiat isnt able to be withdrawn, which means..
3. Selling can only be in an attempt to buy lower, which means..
4. Price drops can only be short term, and until people who sold panic and buy coins again.

Only way a seller can withdraw is if they are a whale and willing to take a big fee. Small guys are SoL.

[byronbb]

Debt ceiling reaction up or down is 100% psychological. There are no actual market forces here, unlike say with FX, equities, commodities. Of course, if people believe in it, it's basically true, to a point, as the bottom can fall-out much faster when something is moving on perception alone.

[Spekulatius]

Just now: Senate votes in favor of Dept Ceiling Deal by 81 Yaes, 18 Naes; House votes next (in the next few hours).

[Spekulatius]

Just now: House of Congress vote in progress: Already clear that Deal will be passed!

Prices keep dropping, Bitstamp with massive sell of 1159 BTC to 135$/BTC

[bassclef]

Was there ever any doubt?

[theonewhowaskazu]

Just put in big buy order at Bitstamp at $125.02. Lets see if we can get that low

[derpinheimer]

Just put in big buy order at Bitstamp at $125.02. Lets see if we can get that low

Why not in front of the bidwall at 125.88?

[Liquid]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AVzCalrPHZ0