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Author Topic: Senate reaches deal to end shutdown, avoid default - CNN.com  (Read 2745 times)
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October 16, 2013, 05:27:29 PM
 #21

the ending is funny  Tongue

I know I can't really make a convincing bull.  Smiley
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October 16, 2013, 05:28:30 PM
 #22

Why does everyone panic sell or panic buy whenever the U.S. government does something? I thought the bitcoin rise was about china, investment trusts, and increasing bit coin adoption, and wealth issues all over the globe. I thought bitcoin was worldwide.

Everyone? About 15k coins sold on Gox and a couple 1000 on Bitstamp counts for everyone? The Chinese exchanges have only dropped a few dollars, nothing to really write home about. You know how the saying goes: buy the rumour and sell the news. Wink This is just a temporary pullback.

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October 16, 2013, 05:31:03 PM
 #23

Why does everyone panic sell or panic buy whenever the U.S. government does something? I thought the bitcoin rise was about china, investment trusts, and increasing bit coin adoption, and wealth issues all over the globe. I thought bitcoin was worldwide.

The Chinese volume is virtually inflated by the Chinese exchanges' 0% foo on trades policy and massive bot activity therefore. You cannot compare Bitstamp or Gox volume to Chinese exchanges.
To be honest, I'm having trouble believing their self-reported volumes in the first place, moreso than emptygox. Think about it, all you have to do to get more customers as an exchange is to get on bitcoincharts etc. and fabricate some volume, soon we will all jerk off about how it's growing and mention it everywhere, acting as their marketing squad.

In any event, they have to earn money somehow to cover their running costs. Any exorbitant withdrawal or deposit fees?
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October 16, 2013, 05:33:34 PM
 #24

So I guess when we were discussing the rally we were like "well the chart looks like we're about to break out into another bubble to 500, but if the U.S. government doesn't default, it's off"... right?


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October 16, 2013, 05:38:18 PM
 #25

So I guess when we were discussing the rally we were like "well the chart looks like we're about to break out into another bubble to 500, but if the U.S. government doesn't default, it's off"... right?

No. Once everybody starts cheering and becoming bullish you know that the market will start to shake things up so people become uncertain again. It's all part of the bigger picture, and if you can't see it, too bad. Tongue

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October 16, 2013, 05:42:04 PM
 #26

I did see and play a retracement but not to $148 instantly - that seems completely off the chart.


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October 16, 2013, 05:42:28 PM
 #27

Why do you think it's all panic sells? Maybe some people just wanna cash out a few bitcoins to buy christmas presents or spekulatius cookies.
I bet that there's also some of those old 3$/btc coins around and maybe some people just come back to it and sell since they need moneys, you'll never know.

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October 16, 2013, 05:45:53 PM
 #28

Why do you think it's all panic sells? Maybe some people just wanna cash out a few bitcoins to buy christmas presents or spekulatius cookies.
I bet that there's also some of those old 3$/btc coins around and maybe some people just come back to it and sell since they need moneys, you'll never know.

Because people are all going to agree at the same exact minutes that its time to sell their BTC to buy presents  Roll Eyes

You cant be serious.
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October 16, 2013, 06:14:27 PM
 #29

It's not panic sells. It's day traders. Buy the rumor sell the news. No one thought the US would default and then sold with shock and panic at the news! Lol!

Bitcoin markets just starting to behave with patterns, albeit less sophisticated and easier to play than the stock market.
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October 16, 2013, 06:26:00 PM
 #30

It's not panic sells. It's day traders. Buy the rumor sell the news. No one thought the US would default and then sold with shock and panic at the news! Lol!

Bitcoin markets just starting to behave with patterns, albeit less sophisticated and easier to play than the stock market.

Well resumed. +1

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October 16, 2013, 06:29:20 PM
 #31

USG wouldn't have defaulted anyway. It's something else.

What is something else? The reason for the rise, or the reason for the drop?
Wherever a USG default which wouldn't have happened is being used as reasoning.

But.. its.. responsible, in part, for the rise... and, this current drop.. no? lol

It's a combination of the gox situation, asic producers and the way the Chinese media reported on the US Govt shut-down.

No, it's day traders people! Gess. Such ignorance on here.
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October 16, 2013, 06:35:14 PM
 #32

Just FYI, rather than this being an overestimate of the impact of avoiding a default, this might just be a correction, compensating for an overestimate of the probability of a default occurring in the first place.

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October 16, 2013, 06:42:34 PM
 #33

Just FYI, rather than this being an overestimate of the impact of avoiding a default, this might just be a correction, compensating for an overestimate of the probability of a default occurring in the first place.
do you really think that was driving the bull run to begin with? i dont. but what do i know?!  Cheesy

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October 16, 2013, 06:46:16 PM
 #34

Just FYI, rather than this being an overestimate of the impact of avoiding a default, this might just be a correction, compensating for an overestimate of the probability of a default occurring in the first place.
do you really think that was driving the bull run to begin with? i dont. but what do i know?!  Cheesy

I don't really know, or particularly care because its still trending up with or without it. Just saying this isn't necessarily a "buy on the dip" moment for day traders because the dip has the potential to be a good ~$5-10 lower.

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October 16, 2013, 06:58:38 PM
 #35

Bear trap  Smiley

A bear trap baited with US politicians. 

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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October 16, 2013, 07:06:21 PM
 #36

The government shutdown nonsense was just political theater.

The reason for the small correction is simple if you look at a 7-day chart: the price was on a mini-exponential curve and started going up faster-than-exponential, which means it's virtually guaranteed to correct.



Nothing moves in a straight line. If it did, we'd be at mainstream-adoption prices by Christmas.

In sum, the price was already very overbought, so it was looking for any trigger to correct, and this news may have been it. But as an investor this is exactly the kind of thing you have to learn to see through. Anything in overbought territory will correct at the drop of a hat; don't get distracted by the style of hat it happens to be.
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October 16, 2013, 07:17:51 PM
 #37

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/10/16/politics/shutdown-showdown/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Price already falling hard - Was this whole rally built on default fantasies (hint at recent polls in this thread)?

It will be like the Silk Road crash. A bunch of people mistakenly think other people will sell... when not as many people sold as the bears expected, Bitcoin will seem "resilient" and the price will climb back.
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October 16, 2013, 07:56:35 PM
 #38

I think what happens is day traders and bots panic sell and the large investors come out of the woodwork to accumulate the cheap coins. This leaves the day traders and bots (as a collective) needing to rebuy at a loss, creates an imbalance of force, and drives the price even higher than where it started.


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October 16, 2013, 08:28:15 PM
 #39

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/10/16/politics/shutdown-showdown/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Price already falling hard - Was this whole rally built on default fantasies (hint at recent polls in this thread)?

It will be like the Silk Road crash. A bunch of people mistakenly think other people will sell... when not as many people sold as the bears expected, Bitcoin will seem "resilient" and the price will climb back.

Incorrect; the price cannot drop because:

1. Gox is leader
2. Gox fiat isnt able to be withdrawn, which means..
3. Selling can only be in an attempt to buy lower, which means..
4. Price drops can only be short term, and until people who sold panic and buy coins again.

Only way a seller can withdraw is if they are a whale and willing to take a big fee. Small guys are SoL.
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October 16, 2013, 11:13:08 PM
 #40

Debt ceiling reaction up or down is 100% psychological. There are no actual market forces here, unlike say with FX, equities, commodities. Of course, if people believe in it, it's basically true, to a point, as the bottom can fall-out much faster when something is moving on perception alone.

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