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Author Topic: Bitcoin rises, litecoin plummets  (Read 5576 times)
wobber
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October 18, 2013, 09:45:13 PM
 #21

There is a lot more to litecoin supply than "4x as many as bitcoin". 

First, consider the distribution of bitcoin. Millions are lost, satoshi holds a million, winklevoss holds a million, dpr /feds hold 629k, and large businesses have holdings with no intent to sell.  All in all, there are probably about 2 million btc available for trading by speculators. Now consider litecoin. All of the current 20 million lite coins are in play and held by speculators. This makes the supply 10 times as heavy as btc. Also, most of these speculators are waiting to dump during a mtgox IPO.

Second, the mining suuply is actually 8 times greater than that of bitcoin. There are 4 times as many blocks and twice the present block reward. So there is also a heavy constant stream of supply on top of the huge existing supply.

This is why litecoin can trade 3,000,000 ltc in a day and close the day at only a few percent difference. Imagine if btc traded 3,000,000btc in a day, or 750,000btc even. It would shoot up into the moon.

Questions Marks:

- any indication that millions are lost?
- any indication that Satoshi hold a million?
- DPR/FED is 29k
- large businesses? point a few.

I am asking because I try to find this article where mathematicians where implying the same, that BTC supply is much much less.

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October 18, 2013, 09:48:57 PM
 #22

There is a lot more to litecoin supply than "4x as many as bitcoin". 

First, consider the distribution of bitcoin. Millions are lost, satoshi holds a million, winklevoss holds a million, dpr /feds hold 629k, and large businesses have holdings with no intent to sell.  All in all, there are probably about 2 million btc available for trading by speculators. Now consider litecoin. All of the current 20 million lite coins are in play and held by speculators. This makes the supply 10 times as heavy as btc. Also, most of these speculators are waiting to dump during a mtgox IPO.

Second, the mining suuply is actually 8 times greater than that of bitcoin. There are 4 times as many blocks and twice the present block reward. So there is also a heavy constant stream of supply on top of the huge existing supply.

This is why litecoin can trade 3,000,000 ltc in a day and close the day at only a few percent difference. Imagine if btc traded 3,000,000btc in a day, or 750,000btc even. It would shoot up into the moon.

Okay, let's at least get our facts straight here. First of all, we don't really know what Satoshi holds, but I'll spot you that one for lack of good information, the Winklevii hold roughly 100,000 not 1,000,000, the Feds hold 27,000 and DPR almost certainly does not hold 600,000, but probably at least 100,000.
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October 18, 2013, 10:15:09 PM
 #23

There is a lot more to litecoin supply than "4x as many as bitcoin".  

First, consider the distribution of bitcoin. Millions are lost, satoshi holds a million, winklevoss holds a million, dpr /feds hold 629k, and large businesses have holdings with no intent to sell.  All in all, there are probably about 2 million btc available for trading by speculators. Now consider litecoin. All of the current 20 million lite coins are in play and held by speculators. This makes the supply 10 times as heavy as btc. Also, most of these speculators are waiting to dump during a mtgox IPO.

Second, the mining suuply is actually 8 times greater than that of bitcoin. There are 4 times as many blocks and twice the present block reward. So there is also a heavy constant stream of supply on top of the huge existing supply.

This is why litecoin can trade 3,000,000 ltc in a day and close the day at only a few percent difference. Imagine if btc traded 3,000,000btc in a day, or 750,000btc even. It would shoot up into the moon.

This is basically the noobiest thing ever.

The distribution of Bitcoin... its a free market. Lytecoin has absolutely no restraints inside of it to prevent hoarding just as much as Bitcoin, because, golly gee, its also a free market. The fact that you seem to imply that simply that having simply more coins restricts hoarding is absurd. All of your '8 times as much LTC being created' is literally equivalent to just splitting apart BTC. There are 1000 times as much mBTC being created as BTC, i.e, 125 times as much as LTC. Does that make mBTC 125 times better than LTC?

I can trade 3,000,000 mBTC in a day and it not shoot up to the moon. You're literally shifting the decimal place over and calling it some great improvement. Honestly this argument makes negative sense.

Lets actually look at what Litecoin is.

1) They divided the time between blocks by 4, multiplying the total amount of currency by 4. Wow, yay for changing constants. As I've already said, multiplying the total money supply doesn't do crap when a currency is as divisible as BTC. Dividing the amount of time between blocks just requires people to check for more confirmations to achieve the same amount of security, thereby achieving absolutely nothing.

2) They use an inferior and less-tested encryption scheme. It attempted to discourage GPU mining but it epicly failed. All it does is make ASICs have a larger barrier to entry, which means that its much more vulnerable to a 51% attack.

3) Its an altcoin, which, if successful, will destroy cryptocoins as a concept since they have the potential to effectively cause any amount of inflation possible if they are accepted as anything other than pump-and-dump schemes.


Every single functional change to BTC actually hurts LTC, and the non-functional effect of changing constants... doesn't matter. Remind me why anybody would ever use this thing as anything but a bubble-making-mechanism?

EDIT: As for "large businesses holding with no intent to sell"... isn't that the whole goddamn point of a currency? If LTC were to be adopted by mainstream audiences, replacing the dollar, then nobody would want to "sell" LTC either, meaning that we should randomly delete all of LTC either and replace it with Fuckcoin?

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October 18, 2013, 11:33:04 PM
 #24

So should I buy some Litcoin?  I don't have any and have been thinking about it.

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October 19, 2013, 12:15:20 AM
 #25

So should I buy some Litcoin?  I don't have any and have been thinking about it.


YES

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October 19, 2013, 12:57:14 AM
 #26

I'm not promoting litecoin or making any implications. All I'm saying is mathematical calculations about litecoin supply are more complicated than "4x bitcoin". I'll admit some of my information about numbers I posted about bit coin may be wrong. That'll be easier than proving each one. Thanks. Let's chill out and buy some sexcoins (I don't think there's a fuckcoin).
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October 19, 2013, 01:10:26 AM
 #27

Makes me wonder if this will be the second giant crash of BTC. Surely the price of Bitcoin is rising too fast for it to sustain itself.
Bitcoin has risen only 14% after breaking out of a 2 month long consolidation.
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October 19, 2013, 01:19:17 AM
 #28

litecoin probably rise in the next few weeks

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October 19, 2013, 03:26:24 AM
 #29

So should I buy some Litcoin?  I don't have any and have been thinking about it.


Yes, buy while its still low...

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October 19, 2013, 03:37:53 AM
 #30

So should I buy some Litcoin?  I don't have any and have been thinking about it.


Yes, buy while its still low...

and hope it goes back up...  Cheesy

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October 19, 2013, 11:13:51 AM
 #31

For anyone wondering whether or not to buy Litecoin, a few points to consider:

- Litecoin was created by Charlie Lee (coblee), an ex Google developer who now works at Coinbase
- Charlie has stated that he hopes to get Litecoin support added to Coinbase (no promises, no timeframe)
- Charlie's brother, Bobby Lee, is the CEO of BTCChina. Charlie has said he will persuade him to add LTC support (again, no promises, but...)
- Litecoin reached a price of 0.045 BTC from 0.006 BTC (a sevenfold increase) earlier this year when MT Gox announced it would be adding LTC support.

Litecoin has been declining in value for a good few months now. It could well go lower. I was buying on the way down, and admittedly should have waited for lower prices. However, at this point I believe LTC is becoming very undervalued. Historically (i.e. at several points this year, this is all very new) it has comfortably traded at 3x this price (in BTC, i.e. 0.033 BTC per LTC). It has a strong team of devs, the advantage of being the first scrypt coin (I believe there is room for a coin which uses a different hash algorithm, as it diversifies the crypto scene), and I believe it is primed to take off on a bit of good news, maybe when the current BTC hype dies down.

This is my rational perspective, of course it wouldn't surprise me if BTC goes berserk and leaves LTC in the dust for now - this is all too common in crypto trading. But for those who believe LTC will still be around in a year or so, you should be keeping an eye out for the best entry point, IMO.
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October 19, 2013, 12:43:36 PM
 #32

Some quotes from Charlie Lee, remember he is pretty well known in the Crypto world and has some legit connections and dedicated on Litecoin.

- As for working at Coinbase, I think that it's a good thing for Litecoin. A lot of what I learn at Coinbase can be applied to Litecoin in the future. And I get to work closely with Bitcoin folks to help spread the word on Litecoin and increase Litecoin adoption.

- I am Charlie and I have plans to persuade Coinbase to adopt Litecoin. Stay tuned. Smiley

- Every conference I've been to, I only hear good things about Litecoin. I think a lot of Bitcoin people are starting to realize the benefits Litecoin brings to Bitcoin.

- Right now, the largest Litecoin exchange is btc-e, and people don't trust them or can't rely on only one exchange. So having multiple large exchanges supporting Litecoin will likely be needed before a big payment processor will support Litecoin

- Litecoin works well along side Bitcoin. Litecoin actually helps improve liquidity on exchanges, because it's an easy way for someone exchange their bitcoins without going through fiat. And it helps with stability of both prices.

- Basically get the word out. The more people that hear about it the better. Say that Bitcoin-Litecoin is a good 1-2 punch to the current fiat system.

- I've talked to various large exchanges about LTC support. They are all interested, but these things take time.

- The price of LTC is pretty much all based on speculation right now. This is similar to Bitcoin about 2 years ago. So I wouldn't worry too much about price.
We are working towards keeping the network stable. As Litecoin becomes more popular and grows, there will be more exchange support, more payment processors, and then more merchants. Once we have merchant support, the LTC price will no longer be just controlled by speculation.

- I expect we will see ASIC miners for Litecoin eventually

- This is pretty much how things go: (in order) 1) Network stability and coin features 2) People adopting the coin 3) Exchange support 4) Payment processor support 5) Merchant support.

Don't believe those who just hate on Litecoin and make comments like they know everything. I trust more the words of the creators than some trolls, which you should do the same. Also whats interesting is that Litecoins pattern looks like the early Bitcoin.


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October 19, 2013, 02:02:38 PM
 #33

and both will stay here. dont worry. up and down. bitcoin went from 30 dollars to 2 dollars some years ago  Shocked

back in 2011?  or even before that?

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October 19, 2013, 06:05:48 PM
 #34

For anyone wondering whether or not to buy Litecoin, a few points to consider:

- Litecoin was created by Charlie Lee (coblee), an ex Google developer who now works at Coinbase
- Charlie has stated that he hopes to get Litecoin support added to Coinbase (no promises, no timeframe)
- Charlie's brother, Bobby Lee, is the CEO of BTCChina. Charlie has said he will persuade him to add LTC support (again, no promises, but...)
- Litecoin reached a price of 0.045 BTC from 0.006 BTC (a sevenfold increase) earlier this year when MT Gox announced it would be adding LTC support.

Litecoin has been declining in value for a good few months now. It could well go lower. I was buying on the way down, and admittedly should have waited for lower prices. However, at this point I believe LTC is becoming very undervalued. Historically (i.e. at several points this year, this is all very new) it has comfortably traded at 3x this price (in BTC, i.e. 0.033 BTC per LTC). It has a strong team of devs, the advantage of being the first scrypt coin (I believe there is room for a coin which uses a different hash algorithm, as it diversifies the crypto scene), and I believe it is primed to take off on a bit of good news, maybe when the current BTC hype dies down.

This is my rational perspective, of course it wouldn't surprise me if BTC goes berserk and leaves LTC in the dust for now - this is all too common in crypto trading. But for those who believe LTC will still be around in a year or so, you should be keeping an eye out for the best entry point, IMO.

Not the first scrypt coin, learn some crypto history.

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October 19, 2013, 07:00:17 PM
 #35

Why is LTC dropping like other LTC-clone?
There is other - better - cryptocoin now. For example, PrimeCoin : 3x faster then LTC, 20-30mln supply, useful in science, unique (cant be copy like FTC, DGC,WDC or other LTC clone), early stage - still CPU mining, innovation in block reward - smooth dropping, good name, checkpoint - more secure to 51% attack, good press, good news in the future (GPU, FGPA, ASIC, new record of the highest prime number, mass-media attention), maybe the biggest prime number could be sell by miner. Still don't know why LTC is dropping? Look around - don't listen to crowd.
Another good example is NVC or PPC
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October 19, 2013, 07:04:45 PM
 #36

If there is room for a 2nd alt currency (which I doubt there is), then it'll actually have to do something dramatically different than BTC. Altcoins thus far, even the popular ones, do very little than change a few settings in the bitcoin protocol.  LTC provides NO (zero, zilch, natta) benefit over using BTC besides giving emo-sad miners a chance to scam a few chumps into buying it from them.
+1

Take a look at Ripple: like it or not, it is something completely different, with different goals, working in a different way, i.e. since it is not a copycat, there might be some market for it.

There are 4 times more LTC than BTC.
Lol what does this have to do with anything.
We're not talking about fruits.

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October 19, 2013, 10:02:09 PM
 #37

I wrote it at a different place already. The market is too big for Bitcoin being the only CC.

There are reasons that Litcoin will dig into the space since it is somparible easy to Bitcoin in various ways. It can also be Feathercoin or both.

But what will come along with Bitcoin does not depend on technology. Never in history pure technology made the run. It is more the believe and that depends on usage. Which of the altcoins will be the winner can not be said now. But if it will be Litecoin the the current price level of 0.01 BTC is an absolute entry point for speculators. But who knew what Bitcoin has developed to when the first 10,000 BTC were invested into a pizza  Grin

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October 19, 2013, 10:14:30 PM
 #38

For anyone wondering whether or not to buy Litecoin, a few points to consider:

- Litecoin was created by Charlie Lee (coblee), an ex Google developer who now works at Coinbase
- Charlie has stated that he hopes to get Litecoin support added to Coinbase (no promises, no timeframe)
- Charlie's brother, Bobby Lee, is the CEO of BTCChina. Charlie has said he will persuade him to add LTC support (again, no promises, but...)
- Litecoin reached a price of 0.045 BTC from 0.006 BTC (a sevenfold increase) earlier this year when MT Gox announced it would be adding LTC support.

Litecoin has been declining in value for a good few months now. It could well go lower. I was buying on the way down, and admittedly should have waited for lower prices. However, at this point I believe LTC is becoming very undervalued. Historically (i.e. at several points this year, this is all very new) it has comfortably traded at 3x this price (in BTC, i.e. 0.033 BTC per LTC). It has a strong team of devs, the advantage of being the first scrypt coin (I believe there is room for a coin which uses a different hash algorithm, as it diversifies the crypto scene), and I believe it is primed to take off on a bit of good news, maybe when the current BTC hype dies down.

This is my rational perspective, of course it wouldn't surprise me if BTC goes berserk and leaves LTC in the dust for now - this is all too common in crypto trading. But for those who believe LTC will still be around in a year or so, you should be keeping an eye out for the best entry point, IMO.

Not the first scrypt coin, learn some crypto history.

Thanks for pointing out my mistake.
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October 19, 2013, 10:27:05 PM
 #39

Why is LTC dropping like other LTC-clone?
There is other - better - cryptocoin now. For example, PrimeCoin : 3x faster then LTC, 20-30mln supply, useful in science, unique (cant be copy like FTC, DGC,WDC or other LTC clone), early stage - still CPU mining, innovation in block reward - smooth dropping, good name, checkpoint - more secure to 51% attack, good press, good news in the future (GPU, FGPA, ASIC, new record of the highest prime number, mass-media attention), maybe the biggest prime number could be sell by miner. Still don't know why LTC is dropping? Look around - don't listen to crowd.


This. The litecoin really does not offer something interesting, while PrimeCoin does.

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October 19, 2013, 10:34:51 PM
 #40

This. The litecoin really does not offer something interesting, while PrimeCoin does.

Forget Primecoin .. wtf of the payment community is interested in the calculation of prime numbers ?

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