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Author Topic: Call the top  (Read 14613 times)
nobbynobbynoob
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November 09, 2013, 02:36:13 PM
 #101

266*(266/31) = 2282

I like this notion, but there is one subtle difference in that we retested ATH after only seven months instead of two years or so. That said, the exponential trend line offers a (very) rough guide as to future expectations and overbought versus oversold conditions. $1/mBTC is due in the back half of 2014, so it looks rather bubbleicious should that arrive much sooner. History suggests weekly price doubling, even for bitcoin, isn't sustainable so I'm making considerations about diversification and when/if/how to go short. There's a bit more money at stake now than during the 260 runup. Smiley

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November 10, 2013, 03:40:40 PM
 #102

My thoughts:

$349 on Bitstamp (actual top: $363.65)
$396 on Gox (actual top: $395)
2525 on BTCChina (actual top: 2630)

At least the top of this rally, after a couple weeks of retracements and consolidation a new rally will begin.

Looks like the top is in, perhaps not THE top but for the coming days and weeks I don't think we're going to retest these ATHs again. My targets were too low for BTCChina and Bitstamp but MtGox is pretty damn close. Smiley

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November 10, 2013, 03:49:24 PM
 #103

The theoretical top for Gox was 378$, because of low volume it couldn't climb higher. China went up a lot at the same time.
And then the rebound on Gox climbed higher than the top, to 395$, because the volume and bullishness returned. Crazy!

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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November 10, 2013, 08:25:28 PM
 #104

are you saying we already reached the top? i was thinking we just needed a very deep correction because of the velocity of price movement. which we have had. not sure how much lower it will go, but i think there is some fuel left to the rally. just need to consolidate first.
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November 11, 2013, 10:34:17 PM
 #105

I'll put on my rose coloured glasses, I see a lot of demand coming from existing traders, investing virgin fiat. (So this rally is partly supported by the old guard and poised for a huge correction from where we are now.)

There is also new investors testing the water with a sub $1000 investment a lot of them investing at sub $100.

Then there are the new oligarchs, some invested in mining and they have been snapping up a lot of coins off exchange behind the eyes of the traders. (I've herd a few mention coin supply has run dry.)

There are also the SecondMarket converts who will spin this off by investing directly in Bitcoin, leveraging there public investment in the ETF's (and some speculation the Winklevoss will get SEC approval)

Then there is the upcoming presentation to the US Senate and the resulting insight.

Not to mention I've noticed more public opinion on why we need something like Bitcoin, indicating people get it.

So I'm going out on a limb and call a top in 6 to 9 month's of around $30,000 give or take a handful of flash crashes like we have just seen 30-50% volatility on the way up.

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November 11, 2013, 10:41:48 PM
 #106

I'll put on my rose coloured glasses, I see a lot of demand coming from existing traders, investing virgin fiat. (So this rally is partly supported by the old guard and poised for a huge correction from where we are now.)

There is also new investors testing the water with a sub $1000 investment a lot of them investing at sub $100.

Then there are the new oligarchs, some invested in mining and they have been snapping up a lot of coins off exchange behind the eyes of the traders. (I've herd a few mention coin supply has run dry.)

There are also the SecondMarket converts who will spin this off by investing directly in Bitcoin, leveraging there public investment in the ETF's (and some speculation the Winklevoss will get SEC approval)

Then there is the upcoming presentation to the US Senate and the resulting insight.

Not to mention I've noticed more public opinion on why we need something like Bitcoin, indicating people get it.

So I'm going out on a limb and call a top in 6 to 9 month's of around $30,000 give or take a handful of flash crashes like we have just seen 30-50% volatility on the way up.

i will send you 50 000,- us $ if you are right. with love.  Kiss
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November 11, 2013, 11:08:45 PM
 #107

Already hit the top this time around. Investors are getting wiser, and everyone is anticipating a big drop like in April. We're likely to see a bear market as investors lose interest and the price eases down to the $150-$200 range by year end.

Night gathers, and now my bitcoinwisdom watch begins.
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November 11, 2013, 11:20:08 PM
 #108

Already hit the top this time around. Investors are getting wiser, and everyone is anticipating a big drop like in April. We're likely to see a bear market as investors lose interest and the price eases down to the $150-$200 range by year end.

one month ago this would would have been seen as optimistic. kinda changed now. sub 200 is history.
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November 11, 2013, 11:56:30 PM
 #109

When I saw it fall from $395 I thought it would be the top, until then I had no idea. At that point the volume to sustain could not be found. Right now I think we are in the phase of people thinking they are buying cheap, plus some whales who are trying to pump to sell the coins other whales dumped on them.

I think a big crash will be seen in China, as they are newer to BTC. They went almost $50 above Gox, and are now lagging. So consider getting on a Chinese exchange. I took advantage of the $1 difference in LTC there to get in.

So I guess now we are calling the bottom. There has been a serious amount of money put into BTC at prices above 200 and 300. If these people wake up and find the price is 250, there could be some serious panic selling, snowballing. However, to counteract this I think there will be a lot of people ready to catch the falling knife. If BTC were to continue a steady growth as from about July, we'd be looking at 120-160. So I think the bottom will be either a bit below or above this, depending on how frantic the panic is and how determined people are to buy on the way down.

In this spike we must have seen at least $100,000,000 come into BTC. If 25% of that goes on panic sells, it should fall to the mid-100 range.

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November 12, 2013, 07:02:52 AM
 #110

Will it come below $280 anytime before the new year ? So desperate to buy my first BTCs

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November 12, 2013, 07:36:07 AM
 #111

$550, or $800. Bitcoin has not had two 'tall bubbles' in a row since its inception. We might a short bubble like in 2012 instead. I feel the resistance at each level getting progressively heavier and more violent. Eventually it will be too much for the bulls to handle and they will turn into bears.
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November 12, 2013, 07:37:07 AM
 #112

It is always impossible to predict the top of any given market especially if the market has limited-supply and increased-demand which is seen exactly now on BTC. Four digits is more likely than two digits in this kind of environment (limited-supply, increased demand).

US options trader and ancap
Paladin69
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November 12, 2013, 07:45:09 AM
 #113

Will it come below $280 anytime before the new year ? So desperate to buy my first BTCs

Yes it could.  Have your funds ready.
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November 12, 2013, 07:46:19 AM
 #114

523 $
kireinaha
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November 12, 2013, 04:14:43 PM
 #115

Will it come below $280 anytime before the new year ? So desperate to buy my first BTCs

Bitcoin works on waves of enthusiasm as new investors and new money seeps in. But once the bull rush loses momentum and interest trickles down, it will likely fall well below $280. I'd be surprised if it isn't in that range again or lower by next month.

Night gathers, and now my bitcoinwisdom watch begins.
JustAnotherSheep
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November 12, 2013, 08:13:41 PM
 #116

Around 650-700 or 1200 based on previous bubbles and where we might be now in relation to them.

If I am right I expect a cake

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November 12, 2013, 08:46:03 PM
 #117

Methinks we'll see a mass sell-off within the next week, judging by historical data. Top will be ~$400 USD then we'll see it drop to just over $100 again.


If I am right I expect a cake

Me too.

wobber
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November 12, 2013, 08:48:25 PM
 #118

Methinks we'll see a mass sell-off within the next week, judging by historical data. Top will be ~$400 USD then we'll see it drop to just over $100 again.


If I am right I expect a cake

Me too.

What historical data?

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November 12, 2013, 11:27:29 PM
 #119

Methinks we'll see a mass sell-off within the next week, judging by historical data. Top will be ~$400 USD then we'll see it drop to just over $100 again.


If I am right I expect a cake

Me too.

What historical data?


Basically how the crash back in April went down (I wasn't around for the first major crash). The remarkably steep slope in the price increase has me convinced this isn't sustainable growth, so we'll be seeing a major correction soon.

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November 12, 2013, 11:32:35 PM
 #120

my WAG:

$1975 if the Senate hearings are not negative
$524 if they are a catastrophe
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