What would happen to btc if....

[Alty]

the higher authorities declared it to be illegal?

At the moment I'm one of a handfull of businesses in France that will accept this currency and from the people that I've met in person (that know about btc) still consider it to be way too high risk to get involved.

What would be a black swan event for btc? What could possibly go wrong?

Thanks in advance for your opinions.

[nobbynobbynoob]

NB this is pure speculation.

I don't think governments right now have much appetite for banning cryptocurrency per se. Their main concern appears to be focused on the AML aspects of those involved with trading crypto into and out of fiat. Banks may be more nervous, however, and have a habit of freezing bitcoin-related fiat accounts.

If bitcoin were banned, in a coördinated effort worldwide (as unlikely as that may seem)...

Short term: the market might well take a hit, in similar style to the SR panic but probably on a larger scale, bigger than just a "flash crash". Fear would reign.
Longer term: consider, how often does a banned commodity become cheaper and then remain that way? Illegal drugs or guns, for example? How effective has the government's ban proved to be on downloading copyrighted material? Consider Bitcoin analogous to BitTorrent.

[Alty]

Fear would reign.
Longer term: consider, how often does a banned commodity become cheaper and then remain that way? Illegal drugs or guns, for example? How effective has the government's ban proved to be on downloading copyrighted material? Consider Bitcoin analogous to BitTorrent.

I agree it doesn't seem like there is much the government can do about Btc it in the long term, apart from segregation and driving it underground.

I wish I had a crystal ball!!

[franky1]

two points to make.

banks love their FIAT, they dont care about prisoners trading cigarettes or kids trading pokemen cards in exchange for extra food. they only care about their beloved FIAT. instead of a foreign employee putting the FIAT into an envelope and sending it out the country back to their homeland, thus taking it out of local economy. with bitcoin people in france will do bank transfers with other people in france when purchasing bitcoin through localbitcoins.com or meetups etc, thus keeping the FIAT circulating within france, which is what the banks love. they dont care that bitcoin may then be sent to UK, US or singapore. as its not their problem.


secondly, using a few hops,skips and a jump ill just leave a few words listed for you to research into their connections and why the french economy wont make bitcoin illegal

France
EURO
Eurozone
Frankfurt Germany
Fidor Bank Germany
Bitcoin

[franky1]

Why everyone would stop using Bitcoin. The exchanges would close. The projects would stop moving forward. The developers would stop coding. The miners would shut down their machines. Everyone would delete their wallets and uninstall any Bitcoin related software.

Prohibition is extremely effective and everyone immediately complies, as they know it's in their best interests.

What did you think would happen?

"Prohibition is extremely effective"

Edit: "What did you think would happen?"

tell that to the guys making moonshine during the alcohol prohibition.
tell that to the blackmarket butchers selling meat during the Blitz rationing
tell that to the..... endless list of examples

edit: i can be sarcastic too

[Alty]

Frankfurt Germany
Fidor Bank Germany
Bitcoin

This looks like the start of a good relationship with a serious entity.

Despite most peoples view (and I understand why) I feel it will be a good thing for banks to get more involved.... *flinches under the table

 

[freethink2013]

Honestly, it's beyond the point where they can say bitcoin is illegal. It would be like saying word documents are illegal.

[Alty]

Why everyone would stop using Bitcoin. The exchanges would close. The projects would stop moving forward. The developers would stop coding. The miners would shut down their machines. Everyone would delete their wallets and uninstall any Bitcoin related software.

Prohibition is extremely effective and everyone immediately complies, as they know it's in their best interests.

What did you think would happen?

I think the Btc ecosystem as it stands is still running off the backs of a large and hardcore group of believers and early adopters (myself included).

If Btc is officially banned then it will make growth infinitely more difficult as people will not want to adopt an illegal payment system for their legit business.

So surely the success of this whole currency is hinged on whether or not Btc is accepted by governments and banks worldwide, which is kind of ironic.

[franky1]

So surely the success of this whole currency is hinged on whether or not Btc is accepted by governments and banks worldwide, which is kind of ironic.

as long as bitcoin remains useful, someone will use it. it only takes 2 people to trade, it doesnt require the whole worlds acceptance of it.
and if they both value bitcoin as being worth $160 of mining power and time consumption to make a single BTC, then they will trade at that value.

[Alty]

So surely the success of this whole currency is hinged on whether or not Btc is accepted by governments and banks worldwide, which is kind of ironic.

as long as bitcoin remains useful, someone will use it. it only takes 2 people to trade, it doesnt require the whole worlds acceptance of it.
and if they both value bitcoin as being worth $160 of mining power and time consumption to make a single BTC, then they will trade at that value.

What are the chances that another Altcoin will replace Bitcoin and render it worthless because people see it as being more 'useful' or better?

[ArticMine]

There is a historical precedent for this. What happened to the free market price of gold outside the United States in 1933 as a result of Executive Order 6102? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102. Let us not forget that it was not fully repealed until 1974.

[LiteCoinGuy]

So surely the success of this whole currency is hinged on whether or not Btc is accepted by governments and banks worldwide, which is kind of ironic.

as long as bitcoin remains useful, someone will use it. it only takes 2 people to trade, it doesnt require the whole worlds acceptance of it.
and if they both value bitcoin as being worth $160 of mining power and time consumption to make a single BTC, then they will trade at that value.

What are the chances that another Altcoin will replace Bitcoin and render it worthless because people see it as being more 'useful' or better?

there are alot of alts but no good ones beside bitcoin and litecoin. i think bitcoin will be the leader for the next years and litecoin his little brother, they will go in different directions with the upcoming years as they already do now slowly.

[illpoet]

i doubt theres anything that can stop it now that its out of the bag. There has never been an item in history that was made less valuable when it was outlawed.  The increased risk of incarceration or death adds to an items inherent value.  Since its world wide to eliminate the blockchain would require at least worldwide governmental support and that ain't gonna happen short of a full scale alien invasion. 
I don't see an alt coin overtaking it any time soon. By no means am i a bitcoin snob i see alt coins as having a legitimate place and utility in the world of crypto.  But i don't see any crypto alt chain overtaking it simply because the world is already invested in bitcoin.  Bitcoins are waaay more useful than cash dollars but we haven't seen instant worldwide adoption bc the world relies on dollars.  The bitcoin "brand" is becoming more and more trusted.  Alt coins will become more or less valuable as the public starts to use them more or less.

[Alty]

There is a historical precedent for this. What happened to the free market price of gold outside the United States in 1933 as a result of Executive Order 6102? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102. Let us not forget that it was not fully repealed until 1974.

If I understand from this wiki (and the past is a good indicator to go by) then when the US bans 'hoarding' of Btc  then it should (contrary to my belief) inflate international btc prices? Interesting...

So surely the success of this whole currency is hinged on whether or not Btc is accepted by governments and banks worldwide, which is kind of ironic.

as long as bitcoin remains useful, someone will use it. it only takes 2 people to trade, it doesnt require the whole worlds acceptance of it.
and if they both value bitcoin as being worth $160 of mining power and time consumption to make a single BTC, then they will trade at that value.

What are the chances that another Altcoin will replace Bitcoin and render it worthless because people see it as being more 'useful' or better?

there are alot of alts but no good ones beside bitcoin and litecoin. i think bitcoin will be the leader for the next years and litecoin his little brother, they will go in different directions with the upcoming years as they already do now slowly.

How would you split a hypothetical $100K investment between litecoin and bitcoin?

[johnyj]

Since bitcoin is politically neutral, some politicians might find it harmful while others might find it helpful. You won't have a negative view from everyone

And the only way to persuade everyone to join bitcoin's side is its price rising continuously. This is the single most powerful word of its legality, even the president will buy bitcoin since that will solve his national debt problem 

[CMMPro]

"What would happen to btc if....the higher authorities declared it to be illegal?"

I wonder what would happen if....someone didn't ask that question every day...

[adamstgBit]

the athoirty has spoken bitcoin is REGULATED FTC too fuck, the rule is simple, PAY YOUR TAXES!

lol their are ways around this of course, cashing out on the local markets, but still do you really want 5,000 of dirty sticking fiat laying around

BTC is like gold in that a lot of value can be store in a small amount of space

but bitcoin does this much better and takes it to a whole new level, encrypted paper-wallet with brain-wallet backup!

BITCOIN! 

[Jabbatheslutt]

Possibly a proce dip for a while but it would be near inpossible to eradicate it entirely.

[TERA]

The price would crash due to a significant increase in supply and reduction in demand as all of the law abiding users dump their coins. Speculation about bitcoin attaining mass adoption as a legitimate payment system will end.

[seafarer124]

As someone said, the cat is out of the bag.  Bitcoin is a steam train with no brakes.

It will roll on and on getting up momentum, people will see what good it can do, eg. the unbanked.

It cannot die, it cannot be stopped.

The world will be a better place with BTC.

[fattypig]

That happens when you wake up and see Bitcoin at 0.1 USD each..

[nobbynobbynoob]

That happens when you wake up and see Bitcoin at 0.1 USD each..

Price probably goes up if they get banned, judging by historic evidence of government prohibitions.

[Tirapon]

Price would crash hard. But there'd still only be 21,000,000 Bitcoins. So if that happens, buy lots while they're cheap.

[nobbynobbynoob]

The price would crash due to a significant increase in supply and reduction in demand as all of the law abiding users dump their coins. Speculation about bitcoin attaining mass adoption as a legitimate payment system will end.

Long term, government prohibition pushes supply curves to the left, not the right. I agree there could be an initial panic crash.