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Author Topic: MTGOX: Why the FUD?  (Read 46 times)
Jeff-reY
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March 17, 2018, 10:02:20 AM
 #1

Lately, there has been a lot of debate about how mtgox has dumped 400 million dollars in BTC.
Link: https://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-trustee-sells-400-million-bitcoin-bitcoin-cash/
What do you think about 400mil and how much could it affect in this market.
Lets say that I have 400mil on BTC that i would like to dump.

And this is the price that i did captured today.


Lets take a look at it,
Bitcoin
$8.235,80 USD
Market Cap
$139.382.267.410 USD
16.923.950 BTC
Circulating Supply
16.923.950 BTC
Max Supply
21.000.000 BTC

Now lets do the math how the price is determined on the market cap.

    Market Cap         Circulating Supply
[139.382.267.410]  ÷  [16.923.950] =  8.235,80

Now Lets lower the market cap with 400mil!

139.382.267.410 - 400.000.000 = 138.982.267.410

[138.982.267.410] ÷ [16.923.950] = 8.212.16

So 400mil is literally only a small change of $ 23.64 in this huge market.

Now please explain to me if im wrong at some point.
But I dont understand how 400mil could affect a huge price drop on this market.
Is it needed to create FUD?
Did MTGOX caused the FALL of bitcoin?

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March 17, 2018, 11:29:20 AM
 #2

I think you are right.

I also can't understand the topics about Bitcoin sink due some 400M sale-out. Sales are not even made on a single batch, but 5 in different weeks.


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March 17, 2018, 12:47:16 PM
 #3

Now Lets lower the market cap with 400mil!

139.382.267.410 - 400.000.000 = 138.982.267.410

[138.982.267.410] ÷ [16.923.950] = 8.212.16

So 400mil is literally only a small change of $ 23.64 in this huge market.

It doesn't work that way. The price is determined by supply and demand, which are curves and not single values.

However, I agree that the Mt Gox sales were not a major factor, simply because the sales have stopped and yet the price has started  to fall again.

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Jeff-reY
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March 17, 2018, 01:04:42 PM
 #4

Now Lets lower the market cap with 400mil!

139.382.267.410 - 400.000.000 = 138.982.267.410

[138.982.267.410] ÷ [16.923.950] = 8.212.16

So 400mil is literally only a small change of $ 23.64 in this huge market.

It doesn't work that way. The price is determined by supply and demand, which are curves and not single values. If the supply curve were totally elastic, then you could represent the supply as a single number and your math would apply, but it is not.

Oh yes you are right, i totally agree with you.
But that 400mil should not let the market fall so hard against a billion market right?
I mean, come on 400mil over 320 Billion that was the marketcap from BTC on December 17 2017.
So you think that MTGOX could cause this fall

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March 17, 2018, 01:08:48 PM
 #5

I don't think that it goes that way. Along with Mt. Gox selling out bitcoin, people panicked and sold some of their holdings. We all know that a simple FUD can shake up some holders and some people just started investing on bitcoin last year when it was bullish, and might have panicked on the first quarter of the year. So, maybe we can expect a slow market fluctuation since bitcoin price hike last year happened to fast and not everyone is prepared for it. So, a lot of people got hurt and was shocked when bitcoin price went red.

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March 17, 2018, 02:53:05 PM
 #6

Oh yes you are right, i totally agree with you.
But that 400mil should not let the market fall so hard against a billion market right?
I mean, come on 400mil over 320 Billion that was the marketcap from BTC on December 17 2017.
So you think that MTGOX could cause this fall

You realize that around 10 billions of that market cap is made by Satoshi's coins?
How much more is there?
All 42,400 dormant bitcoin addresses with a balance of 25bt or more. Total = 3,380,582 bitcoins.

The only way you can somehow approximate how much money were poured into BTC would be to take the figures from all the exchnges that have done more than 1% of trades and check how much money they have received and how much they have sent. We're never going to see that data.

Let's see how much $ has been really invested in BTC and then compare the 400 millions to this number.






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March 17, 2018, 03:05:36 PM
 #7

Now Lets lower the market cap with 400mil!

139.382.267.410 - 400.000.000 = 138.982.267.410

[138.982.267.410] ÷ [16.923.950] = 8.212.16

So 400mil is literally only a small change of $ 23.64 in this huge market.

It doesn't work that way. The price is determined by supply and demand, which are curves and not single values.

However, I agree that the Mt Gox sales were not a major factor, simply because the sales have stopped and yet the price has started  to fall again.
Bitcoin market cap dropped couple billions, not 400 millions that is a big difference. Mt.gox inflicted on supply, but that is not over, many people, like always, will try to make fast profit, now they will dump bitcoin when ever they have opportunity for that. Market is going trough turbulence times, for some of us its all strange cause we didn`t expect this sale of from mt.gox, people should learn from this kind of events, and how something can inflict on price.
Mt.gox was one of the reasons why bitcoin price is dropping, but you have other reasons too, news about google, fud from China. Its never just one reason, its many of them, always.

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