Bitcoin - Headed a lot Lower - Back to the Mean

[1Referee]

If you've been trading markets for 35 years, and this is a helluva job, how could it happen that you bought into this ****? Typically, people learn their lesson the hard way in their fresh years, and then it either remains with them for the rest of their trading lives or they go to hunt elsewhere. Don't consider this as an offense of any kind because I'm really-really curious. After 35 years you should be kinda invincible to these things. I mean the ones like "it will be different this time".

It doesn't really matter how much experience someone may have as a traditional trader. It basically goes up for traditional market gurus as well; they for years have been predicting that this 'bubble' would end according to their traditional market knowledge, but it's still thriving. If we look at how brutal this market can be from time to time, then even 'experienced' crypto traders some times just have to accept that they can't beat the market. I have been trading Bitcoin for years now, and one thing that helped me a lot, is the fact that I know when to back off. I tried to trade against the market in all sorts of circumstances, but it's not worthwhile anymore when everything starts to look like a gamble rather than a well thought out trade. That's why I currently focus almost solely on repetitive patterns. It's much easier, more rewarding, and above of all, it results in less headache and stress.

[1715051698]

1715051698

[1715051698]

1715051698

[WickedPigeon]

If you've been trading markets for 35 years, and this is a helluva job, how could it happen that you bought into this ****? Typically, people learn their lesson the hard way in their fresh years, and then it either remains with them for the rest of their trading lives or they go to hunt elsewhere. Don't consider this as an offense of any kind because I'm really-really curious. After 35 years you should be kinda invincible to these things. I mean the ones like "it will be different this time".

I have been trading Bitcoin for years now, and one thing that helped me a lot, is the fact that I know when to back off. I tried to trade against the market in all sorts of circumstances, but it's not worthwhile anymore when everything starts to look like a gamble rather than a well thought out trade. That's why I currently focus almost solely on repetitive patterns. It's much easier, more rewarding, and above of all, it results in less headache and stress.

My bet is that your a better trader now than a few years ago when you started. Experience does matter. Its not the only thing, but it's a thing.
And, So what's your call now - what do you see in your patterns. Are you long or out of the market?

[Panchum]

Bitcoin - Headed a lot lower, back to the Mean
Like a lot of people on this Forum, I'm in pain right now. My gains and profits are now turning into losses - capital is vanishing, melting, gone away. And it's going to get worse. I like reading the post here, it's a good community. BUT, lots of people are going to learn a hard lesson if they are trading like they say in their posts.

I've been trading markets for 35 years - as a job - and yep, I'm an old dude. I am still a trader and an accountant for a mid-size company; stocks, bonds, funds, options, futures, forwards, and a lot of currencies (thank god we aren't in Crypto-investments at work too).
Last year was seductive, I was doing well in all the markets (equity, debt, and crypto) - 'halcyon days'.  Last year, I had profits in Crypto, I was even buying into "it will be different this time."  But this year, I now have "unrealized" losses with some serious % numbers next to them. I from what I read, I'm not alone.

There are unavoidable Truths coming, if not already here. Lots of, if not most, people will lose in Crypto/Bitcoin investing. It’s just the way of the market. Holding to the end is a sure fire way to lose. Stepping up, ending a trade that’s losing money is so, so hard to do. But right now, it’s the only right answer. Save your capital, fight another day.

Good luck
The King Fisher and Wicked Pigeon



The classics never die.. they just find new markets.

From Jean-Paul Rodrigue (2017)
Bubbles can be very damaging, especially for those who arrived late with the hope of getting something for nothing. Even if they are inflationary events, the outcome of a bubble’s blow off is very deflationary as large quantities of capital vanish in the wave of bankruptcies and financial defaults they trigger. Historically, they tended to be far in-between, but the scale and amplitude of bubbles has accelerated; web/technology stocks (deflated in 2000), real estate (deflated in 2006), commodities (deflated in 2008) and crypto-currencies such as Bitcoin (deflated in 2018).

Yes bitcoin is very low now thats why many people now expecting on their Price increase. I go hope that there will be surprised soon. That bitcoin is going back again to its normal price. Because bitcoin will survive for the many.

[WickedPigeon]

I've been trading markets for 35 years - as a job - and yep, I'm an old dude. I am still a trader and an accountant for a mid-size company; stocks, bonds, funds, options, futures, forwards, and a lot of currencies (thank god we aren't in Crypto-investments at work too).
Last year was seductive, I was doing well in all the markets (equity, debt, and crypto) - 'halcyon days'.  Last year, I had profits in Crypto, I was even buying into "it will be different this time."  But this year, I now have "unrealized" losses with some serious % numbers next to them. I from what I read, I'm not alone.

If you've been trading markets for 35 years, and this is a helluva job, how could it happen that you bought into this ****? Typically, people learn their lesson the hard way in their fresh years, and then it either remains with them for the rest of their trading lives or they go to hunt elsewhere. Don't consider this as an offense of any kind because I'm really-really curious. After 35 years you should be kinda invincible to these things. I mean the ones like "it will be different this time".

Oh if it were only so easy. I'm twisted as the next trader when it comes to short term moves. What I'm better at than most is discipline/money management. I've taken some money off the table, profits at the highs and took some losses during the pull back earlier this year. I didn't sell everything, just some. When prices move, I know when to add or subtract. I can't know much more than that when comes to these madding BTC/Alt markets. My experience proved helpful, not bullet proof. I know the market will go lower and higher, I just don't know when.

[Koro-Sensei]

Bitcoin - Headed a lot lower, back to the Mean
Like a lot of people on this Forum, I'm in pain right now. My gains and profits are now turning into losses - capital is vanishing, melting, gone away. And it's going to get worse. I like reading the post here, it's a good community. BUT, lots of people are going to learn a hard lesson if they are trading like they say in their posts.

I've been trading markets for 35 years - as a job - and yep, I'm an old dude. I am still a trader and an accountant for a mid-size company; stocks, bonds, funds, options, futures, forwards, and a lot of currencies (thank god we aren't in Crypto-investments at work too).
Last year was seductive, I was doing well in all the markets (equity, debt, and crypto) - 'halcyon days'.  Last year, I had profits in Crypto, I was even buying into "it will be different this time."  But this year, I now have "unrealized" losses with some serious % numbers next to them. I from what I read, I'm not alone.

There are unavoidable Truths coming, if not already here. Lots of, if not most, people will lose in Crypto/Bitcoin investing. It’s just the way of the market. Holding to the end is a sure fire way to lose. Stepping up, ending a trade that’s losing money is so, so hard to do. But right now, it’s the only right answer. Save your capital, fight another day.

Good luck
The King Fisher and Wicked Pigeon



The classics never die.. they just find new markets.

From Jean-Paul Rodrigue (2017)
Bubbles can be very damaging, especially for those who arrived late with the hope of getting something for nothing. Even if they are inflationary events, the outcome of a bubble’s blow off is very deflationary as large quantities of capital vanish in the wave of bankruptcies and financial defaults they trigger. Historically, they tended to be far in-between, but the scale and amplitude of bubbles has accelerated; web/technology stocks (deflated in 2000), real estate (deflated in 2006), commodities (deflated in 2008) and crypto-currencies such as Bitcoin (deflated in 2018).

Lol i remembered being greedy as hell when BITCOIN reached $15000 in the market and got a bit cocky there to hold it no matter what. Then started investing more and more over time then it was a success run and Bitcoin's value even got up to $19000 but sadly i didn't convert all those cause i was determined it will continuously go that high up but unfortunately it hasn't and i was broke after the huge pump.

[Canis Majoris]

If you've been trading markets for 35 years, and this is a helluva job, how could it happen that you bought into this ****? Typically, people learn their lesson the hard way in their fresh years, and then it either remains with them for the rest of their trading lives or they go to hunt elsewhere. Don't consider this as an offense of any kind because I'm really-really curious. After 35 years you should be kinda invincible to these things. I mean the ones like "it will be different this time".

It doesn't really matter how much experience someone may have as a traditional trader. It basically goes up for traditional market gurus as well; they for years have been predicting that this 'bubble' would end according to their traditional market knowledge, but it's still thriving. If we look at how brutal this market can be from time to time, then even 'experienced' crypto traders some times just have to accept that they can't beat the market. I have been trading Bitcoin for years now, and one thing that helped me a lot, is the fact that I know when to back off. I tried to trade against the market in all sorts of circumstances, but it's not worthwhile anymore when everything starts to look like a gamble rather than a well thought out trade. That's why I currently focus almost solely on repetitive patterns. It's much easier, more rewarding, and above of all, it results in less headache and stress.

I bolded the part of your post which is quite in line with what I'm saying myself and which I referred to in my previous post. Knowing where and when to back off is the lesson that most traders learn in the first years of their trading careers, typically the hard way. If they fail to imprint it firmly on their mind, their careers are soon to be over.

Other than that,  I can't agree that crypto markets are really brutal because till recently they were in fact quite forgiving. Whatever price you bought your coins at, you could just sit and wait patiently untill going into green. This is not the case with, for example, derivatives markets where just holding assets (e.g. futures or options) means losing money.

[BartS]

If you are so well versed in the markets you should understand that the bubble is easily blown away but it can also be easily inflated. Where you have confidence that the whales don't stop now the sale of coins? They have long returned their investments in bitcoin. Why can't they take the risk? Expectations in the market are very high. The price may go up instantly.

I don't know why people are so negative the op is losing money like most people but the price of bitcoin is still way above the levels of the previous year and of all the years before it, if you are not in profit even with the current prices it has to do with your inability or reluctance to buy bitcoin when it was cheap, anyone that bought at the beginning of the previous year still has tremendous profits and this holds true not only for bitcoin but for almost any other coin in the market so if someone is losing money despite the huge growth then it is the fault of the trader not of the market.

[zenrol28]

That graph was already seen on bitcoin 4 years ago. It already happened and happened again and it will happen again. It's like a cycle.





year 2013 and 2017 looks the same to me. And I think it will possibly happen again but not this year i guess.

[WickedPigeon]

Bitcoin - Headed a lot lower, back to the Mean
Like a lot of people on this Forum, I'm in pain right now. My gains and profits are now turning into losses - capital is vanishing, melting, gone away. And it's going to get worse. I like reading the post here, it's a good community. BUT, lots of people are going to learn a hard lesson if they are trading like they say in their posts.

I've been trading markets for 35 years - as a job - and yep, I'm an old dude. I am still a trader and an accountant for a mid-size company; stocks, bonds, funds, options, futures, forwards, and a lot of currencies (thank god we aren't in Crypto-investments at work too).
Last year was seductive, I was doing well in all the markets (equity, debt, and crypto) - 'halcyon days'.  Last year, I had profits in Crypto, I was even buying into "it will be different this time."  But this year, I now have "unrealized" losses with some serious % numbers next to them. I from what I read, I'm not alone.

There are unavoidable Truths coming, if not already here. Lots of, if not most, people will lose in Crypto/Bitcoin investing. It’s just the way of the market. Holding to the end is a sure fire way to lose. Stepping up, ending a trade that’s losing money is so, so hard to do. But right now, it’s the only right answer. Save your capital, fight another day.

Good luck
The King Fisher and Wicked Pigeon



The classics never die.. they just find new markets.

From Jean-Paul Rodrigue (2017)
Bubbles can be very damaging, especially for those who arrived late with the hope of getting something for nothing. Even if they are inflationary events, the outcome of a bubble’s blow off is very deflationary as large quantities of capital vanish in the wave of bankruptcies and financial defaults they trigger. Historically, they tended to be far in-between, but the scale and amplitude of bubbles has accelerated; web/technology stocks (deflated in 2000), real estate (deflated in 2006), commodities (deflated in 2008) and crypto-currencies such as Bitcoin (deflated in 2018).

Bitcoin, and most alt-coins, are still in a free fall. This will continue to occur until a number of traders/investors are "shaken out" of the market. There is still a gross over supply of miners and losing investors willing to dump at low prices as panic (the inverse of FOMO) kicks into high gear. My guess is that we have at least another $1500-3000 drop. Once BTC hits mid to high 3k and the Alt-coins are halved from here, then we will see a new base develop. And after sometime at that base, then we can see a new bull market. But that will take a year or two from here. Sad but too likely, as I'm long BTC too.

[Canis Majoris]

Bitcoin, and most alt-coins, are still in a free fall. This will continue to occur until a number of traders/investors are "shaken out" of the market. There is still a gross over supply of miners and losing investors willing to dump at low prices as panic (the inverse of FOMO) kicks into high gear. My guess is that we have at least another $1500-3000 drop. Once BTC hits mid to high 3k and the Alt-coins are halved from here, then we will see a new base develop. And after sometime at that base, then we can see a new bull market. But that will take a year or two from here. Sad but too likely, as I'm long BTC too.

Well, I'm a bit more optimistic. By the look and feel of it, there is not much extra supply left in the markets. Honestly, I don't know what you mean by the oversupply of miners - they have always been there as well as the coins they mine - but weak hands, which you refer to, should have already been shaken out by now. Look, when the price had first crashed below $6,000 in early February, it actually felt like a genuine panic sell-off. That was for real. Now it feels quite different as if there is plenty of resilience in the market. So, unless a major bearwhale off-loads massively, the price is not very likely to drop below $5,000 on its own.

[WickedPigeon]

Well, I'm a bit more optimistic. By the look and feel of it, there is not much extra supply left in the markets. Honestly, I don't know what you mean by the oversupply of miners - they have always been there as well as the coins they mine - but weak hands, which you refer to, should have already been shaken out by now. Look, when the price had first crashed below $6,000 in early February, it actually felt like a genuine panic sell-off. That was for real. Now it feels quite different as if there is plenty of resilience in the market. So, unless a major bearwhale off-loads massively, the price is not very likely to drop below $5,000 on its own.

The "coin" markets are thin markets with almost no institutional players (few but not many). These are markets dominated by unseasoned, immature, and rash traders - both up and down. These two elements, thin and rash, lead to very volatile price swings. My play right now is to move to EUR (not USD) til BTC hits 3,990 BTC/EUR. Then I would look to buy on the 'blow-off' bottom.

Time will tell.
Sell BTC $7,105 (might get a bear bounce to $8k).
Buy 1.23 EUR/USD.
Then wait until baked on both sides, might take to July/Aug.

BUT whatever you do, don't keep 100% in #HODL. That will kill you, you'll get run over in the middle of the road!

What are you planning on doing? State it, and track it, and make sure you trade your strategy. Don't get Armadillo'd.

[Canis Majoris]

BUT whatever you do, don't keep 100% in #HODL. That will kill you, you'll get run over in the middle of the road!

That's the point I'm trying to deliver around here myself and what I get in reply is that my "understanding of cryptocurrency is very limited". In any market without exception hodlers are canon fodder. As an old Wall Street saying warns, bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered. Pigs here are those who are excessively greedy, basically another name for hodlers, who do not close their positions at the right moment, obsessed with and possessed by greed.

[GayOfThrones]

The point you are missing is that bitcoin had already suffered in the past losses up to 90% or so of its value and sooner or later it had always recovered. Of course this is not a guarantee it will happen agsin, but you are allowed to hope.

[WickedPigeon]

The point you are missing is that bitcoin had already suffered in the past losses up to 90% or so of its value and sooner or later it had always recovered. Of course this is not a guarantee it will happen agsin, but you are allowed to hope.

Oh, I am so sorry for your HS math teacher.

If you are talking about calculating the drop from the absolute, all time high price - for ease let's call that $19,500 and current(ish) price, $ 7,000 - then we are talking 64% almost 2/3rds. But, ok, let's go with your 90%- which would actually put the current price at $1,950 - but, think about how long it traded at 19,500. Not too long. So the actual average price last year is much, much lower, like under $3000. So a reversion back to the mean would call for a pull back to sub-$3,000. Your 90% is looking more and more possible - lets hope not, but very possible.

Keep hoping and I am sure you will #HODL to the end, but there is still time, sell on any rally and wait for lower entry point when times are more stable. 

[WickedPigeon]

Bitcoin - Headed a lot lower, back to the Mean
Like a lot of people on this Forum, I'm in pain right now. My gains and profits are now turning into losses - capital is vanishing, melting, gone away. And it's going to get worse. I like reading the post here, it's a good community. BUT, lots of people are going to learn a hard lesson if they are trading like they say in their posts.

I've been trading markets for 35 years - as a job - and yep, I'm an old dude. I am still a trader and an accountant for a mid-size company; stocks, bonds, funds, options, futures, forwards, and a lot of currencies (thank god we aren't in Crypto-investments at work too).
Last year was seductive, I was doing well in all the markets (equity, debt, and crypto) - 'halcyon days'.  Last year, I had profits in Crypto, I was even buying into "it will be different this time."  But this year, I now have "unrealized" losses with some serious % numbers next to them. I from what I read, I'm not alone.

There are unavoidable Truths coming, if not already here. Lots of, if not most, people will lose in Crypto/Bitcoin investing. It’s just the way of the market. Holding to the end is a sure fire way to lose. Stepping up, ending a trade that’s losing money is so, so hard to do. But right now, it’s the only right answer. Save your capital, fight another day.

Good luck
The King Fisher and Wicked Pigeon



The classics never die.. they just find new markets.

From Jean-Paul Rodrigue (2017)
Bubbles can be very damaging, especially for those who arrived late with the hope of getting something for nothing. Even if they are inflationary events, the outcome of a bubble’s blow off is very deflationary as large quantities of capital vanish in the wave of bankruptcies and financial defaults they trigger. Historically, they tended to be far in-between, but the scale and amplitude of bubbles has accelerated; web/technology stocks (deflated in 2000), real estate (deflated in 2006), commodities (deflated in 2008) and crypto-currencies such as Bitcoin (deflated in 2018).

Hey good news....
We are at the mean....
Time to start buying again, well, almost time. No need to try and catch a falling knife. But $3500, This is it Chief!