Bitcoin Hitting $91,000 By March 2020 - Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors

[TheQuin]

It's unusual to find a positive outlook for Bitcoin in the mainstream financial media these days but Forbes has published some research by Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors (link to article). The projection of $91,000 by March 2020 is based on what happened after each of the previous 'bubbles burst'.

They also recommend focusing on the main currencies as they see a shakeout of the 1,500 plus cryptos around at the moment.

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[Wind_FURY]

Yes! We can then get both of the most positive outcomes in Bitcoin land. We become rich and we can witness John McAfee eat his own penis on national television at the same time. Hahaha.

But in all seriousness, I will believe when it, if I see it. Plus I would first like to see the "experts" predict where the real bottom is. Buying the dip is becoming scary.

[TheQuin]

Yes! We can then get both of the most positive outcomes in Bitcoin land. We become rich and we can witness John McAfee eat his own penis on national television at the same time. Hahaha.

But in all seriousness, I will believe when it, if I see it. Plus I would first like to see the "experts" predict where the real bottom is. Buying the dip is becoming scary.

haha

I take all projections with a pinch of salt. I certainly don't see any reliable way of forecasting exactly when something will happen. I was just a bit surprised to see such a positive piece in Forbes.

As for the bottom, it's when absolutely everyone is screaming about it all being over and saying it's going to $100.... so maybe now-ish.

The serious point about that prediction is the number of times Bitcoin has recovered already. We've had 5 major bubble and burst events and each time it has come back stronger. That's pretty unique.

[Wind_FURY]

Yes! We can then get both of the most positive outcomes in Bitcoin land. We become rich and we can witness John McAfee eat his own penis on national television at the same time. Hahaha.

But in all seriousness, I will believe when it, if I see it. Plus I would first like to see the "experts" predict where the real bottom is. Buying the dip is becoming scary.

haha

I take all projections with a pinch of salt. I certainly don't see any reliable way of forecasting exactly when something will happen. I was just a bit surprised to see such a positive piece in Forbes.

Maybe the people behind that piece are already all in on Bitcoin. Haha.

As for the bottom, it's when absolutely everyone is screaming about it all being over and saying it's going to $100.... so maybe now-ish.

Bitcoin climbing to $91,000 is more realistic than it falling to $100. I believe the 2018 pessemists are in the same level of delusion as the 2017 optimists.

The serious point about that prediction is the number of times Bitcoin has recovered already. We've had 5 major bubble and burst events and each time it has come back stronger. That's pretty unique.

The Dow Jones and other stock market indexes have seen the same kind of patterns for decades. Bull and bear trends are more normal than what the media makes us believe.

[TheQuin]

The Dow Jones and other stock market indexes have seen the same kind of patterns for decades. Bull and bear trends are more normal than what the media makes us believe.

If you look at all the major bubbles that burst, like 1929 or the Internet bubble, they took decades to recover back to the same price. Bitcoin has done it 5 times in 10 years.

[talkbitcoin]

i never liked this type of speculation, where you look at previous patterns and then call a future one. like what this one is doing. but apparently that is something that many speculators do and i do believe that when enough people have the same speculation and enough people believe in that speculation it will happen!

it is the same "price drops first months of every year" discussion all over again.

[TheQuin]

i never liked this type of speculation, where you look at previous patterns and then call a future one. like what this one is doing. but apparently that is something that many speculators do and i do believe that when enough people have the same speculation and enough people believe in that speculation it will happen!

it is the same "price drops first months of every year" discussion all over again.

That's one of the conundrums of markets, both of these statements are true:

1) Past performance is no guarantee of future results - just because it happened before doesn't mean it will again.

2) People repeat the same actions over and over again - markets are driven by human psychology, fear and greed, that leads to many repeating patterns of price movement.

And yes, I agree there is a certain amount of self-fulfilling prophecy about it.

[Denker]

Tom Lee is one of the very few BTC bulls in the mainstream out there.
And his track record so far has been pretty good regarding Bitcoin.
Regarding the date this is pretty close to the next halving, June or July 2020.
I haven't read the article yet, but does he see the price rising in anticipation due to the halvening event?
Because if not, I would assume that, if his prediction should become reality, another 6 months later we could go way higher, spiking above $100k, like the graphic is showing.

[TheQuin]

I haven't read the article yet, but does he see the price rising in anticipation due to the halvening event?

No, it's purely a projection based on extrapolating the previous bubble/bust cycles. He's saying this is the repetition of the decline in April - June 2013 (down to under $70) that came before the run-up to $1200 later that year.

So indeed the halvening might add to that as later on in 2020. But I guess by his same logic you could extrapolate another crash instead  

[futureofeth]

Tom Lee is one of the very few BTC bulls in the mainstream out there.
And his track record so far has been pretty good regarding Bitcoin.
Regarding the date this is pretty close to the next halving, June or July 2020.
I haven't read the article yet, but does he see the price rising in anticipation due to the halvening event?
Because if not, I would assume that, if his prediction should become reality, another 6 months later we could go way higher, spiking above $100k, like the graphic is showing.

We don't know exactly how the price of Bitcoin is going to be in the coming six months, there are a lot of prediction about the Bitcoin market. At the same time, there are many fud circulating cryptocurrency ban, exchange hacks, SEC halting ICO's etc.

So we have to wait for another 3 or 4 months, in what nature Bitcoin will start increasing it's price or not?

[slaman29]

McAfee will be feeling a real need to scratch the 2020 prediction itch, after predicting half a million and then doubling down to 1 million. At least these types of predictions are a lot more researched, but I think I'm leaning at the moment towards the more reasonable yet simple predictions of GDP and things like that. We have to realize that 2020 isn't that far away, and 91k is more than 10 times today's rate. Not impossible, but we shouldn't stick to our x10 and x5 predictions that we're so getting used to in crypto.

[buwaytress]

It's unusual to find a positive outlook for Bitcoin in the mainstream financial media these days but Forbes has published some research by Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors (link to article). The projection of $91,000 by March 2020 is based on what happened after each of the previous 'bubbles burst'.

They also recommend focusing on the main currencies as they see a shakeout of the 1,500 plus cryptos around at the moment.

There'll always be thoughts on both sides of the great divide - but yes, it is good to see some attempts at maintaining objectivity amongst the current trend of selling what sells. Pretty decent research, if you believe in the bubble comparison, but I tend to see less and less resemblance now. Bitcoin's continued resistance (yes, I actually think its ability to maintain this price under intense pressure says a lot about its resilience and growing imperviousness to bubble optimism) says a great deal about what we could expect if things actually start going well for Bitcoin.

And that shakeout can't happen soon enough. This is the first year of many roll outs and product completions by all those ICOs from last year. I expect the majority of them to prove themselves to be the vapourware they are.

[TheQuin]

..if you believe in the bubble comparison, but I tend to see less and less resemblance now. Bitcoin's continued resistance (yes, I actually think its ability to maintain this price under intense pressure says a lot about its resilience and growing imperviousness to bubble optimism) says a great deal about what we could expect if things actually start going well for Bitcoin

I usually try not to use the word 'bubble' but I slipped on that today. It's difficult to argue against terms like 'bubble', 'crash' or 'boom and bust' when the price swings are so extreme. But what else can you really call a 70% drop? The resilence is indeed what separates it and makes it different. As I said up page Bitcoin has been through this 5 times in 10 years and not only that each time it has come back much bigger and stronger. If you look at the charts the previous 'bubbles' are just a mere blip and that's exactly what this will be when you look down from $100k.

Yahoo has an excellent all-time chart and if you drag it to the left and then scroll through time you'll get a sense of what I mean.

[Lancusters]

2020 is still very far away. I think I need to live on a more realistic scale. Long-term forecasts are more like fiction. Who could predict a drop in the price of bitcoin to 6000 dollars this year? For this reason, I am more interested in today's bitcoin price. Even if we know that bitcoin will cost $ 1,000,000 in 2020, we will not be able to save all the coins until that time.

[European Central Bank]

this is a prediction i can get behind.

we have the halving, by that point not too far off 90% of all coins will have been mined, regulation should be clearer, exchanges will be better, plenty of projects will have reached fruition.

the weirdest thing of all to reflect on is that that's only four and a half times beyond the current ATH.

Who could predict a drop in the price of bitcoin to 6000 dollars this year?

anyone who paid attention to previous bubble pops. it's an obvious move. it probably is nowhere near over either.

[Wind_FURY]

this is a prediction i can get behind.

we have the halving, by that point not too far off 90% of all coins will have been mined, regulation should be clearer, exchanges will be better, plenty of projects will have reached fruition.

I believe miners will be billed more for their usage of energy. No more "cheap electricity", and they will be taxed more. The labor and energy made behind each coin mined will be worth more.

the weirdest thing of all to reflect on is that that's only four and a half times beyond the current ATH.

Do you believe Bitcoin must be worth more that $91,000 by 2020 then?

[Herbert2020]

this is a prediction i can get behind.

we have the halving, by that point not too far off 90% of all coins will have been mined, regulation should be clearer, exchanges will be better, plenty of projects will have reached fruition.

I believe miners will be billed more for their usage of energy. No more "cheap electricity", and they will be taxed more. The labor and energy made behind each coin mined will be worth more.

when you say miners you mean the mining farms no the many individuals with ASIC miners at home who are mining bitcoin and connecting to a pool. nobody can do anything about the individual miners because it is simply at home and they are using electricity which the electric company can not tell for what it is being used!
as for mining farms, they already have contracts with electric companies specially those in China and are getting even cheaper electricity. increasing the price may not even be possible and even if it were, it would reach normal cheap levels!

[Wind_FURY]

this is a prediction i can get behind.

we have the halving, by that point not too far off 90% of all coins will have been mined, regulation should be clearer, exchanges will be better, plenty of projects will have reached fruition.

I believe miners will be billed more for their usage of energy. No more "cheap electricity", and they will be taxed more. The labor and energy made behind each coin mined will be worth more.

when you say miners you mean the mining farms no the many individuals with ASIC miners at home who are mining bitcoin and connecting to a pool. nobody can do anything about the individual miners because it is simply at home and they are using electricity which the electric company can not tell for what it is being used!

Yes I mean the "Bitcoin industrial mining companies".

as for mining farms, they already have contracts with electric companies specially those in China and are getting even cheaper electricity. increasing the price may not even be possible and even if it were, it would reach normal cheap levels!

This is a only presumption, but I believe those subsidies will be removed in the future. China is starting to drive mining farms away, the state of New York is billing more for cryptocurrency miners, and have started to tax them more too, plus it won't stop there.

But maybe the higher cost of mining per coin might make the price per coin higher too?

[TheQuin]

But maybe the higher cost of mining per coin might make the price per coin higher too?

The difficulty retarget system makes it a self-balancing system. It's the price of Bitcoin that determines who can mine profitably. If it becomes unprofitable then the miners with the highest electricity costs will stop and the difficulty will go down. So I would argue that the cost of mining doesn't make the price go higher but the price going higher makes it more expensive to mine.

The effect of the halvening is to reduce the rate of increase in supply. Even that isn't really much effect compared to the psychological driver. Everyone thinks the halvening will make the price go up so they buy.

[European Central Bank]

Do you believe Bitcoin must be worth more that $91,000 by 2020 then?

Nothing 'must' be worth anything. If it does get to that price it'll be on another insane run up, not a slow and steady appreciation. I think it would be several more years before a price at that level would be regarded as normal or boring.

we'd be eating our pride for quite a while afterwards as the aftermath of that one might hurt.