1 Trillion Market Cap

[hamiltino]

2025

[Tirapon]

no, i think bitcoin encryption will be broken before that point.

What encryption will be broken? SHA? That's not really how the system works.. I mean technically aren't miners breaking SHA everytime a block is found lol

The whole system relies on public key cryptography. If someone discovers a clever way to calculate private keys from public keys, the whole protocol is useless. That said, I think ECDSA has probably been looked at by all of the brightest minds in cryptography and deemed to be pretty secure, and if it were to be broken I don't see why we couldn't upgrade? (Assuming we'd found a better alternative by this stage)

Also SHA - From what we understand about hash algorithms, its easy to calculate the hash of a given message, but infeasable to create a message with a given hash. Again, if someone were to discover a way to do this, then the system would be broken, as people could simply create valid blocks at will.

I have no understanding of the underlying maths, so I couldn't comment on the likelyhood of either of these things being cracked.

[sinner]

clearly late 2015:

looks like gox opened mid 2010. only data points i can find for before that are ( https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/History ):

October 5, 2009 - ($0.000764/BTC) - Exchange rates published by New Liberty Standard. $1 = 1,309.03 BTC (and theymos thought NLS was overcharging)
May 22, 2010 - ($0.0025/BTC) - laszlo first to buy pizza with Bitcoins agreeing upon paying 10,000 BTC for ~$25 worth of pizza courtesy of jercos

[Hfleer]

clearly late 2015:

looks like gox opened mid 2010. only data points i can find for before that are ( https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/History ):

October 5, 2009 - ($0.000764/BTC) - Exchange rates published by New Liberty Standard. $1 = 1,309.03 BTC (and theymos thought NLS was overcharging)
May 22, 2010 - ($0.0025/BTC) - laszlo first to buy pizza with Bitcoins agreeing upon paying 10,000 BTC for ~$25 worth of pizza courtesy of jercos

Thanks for the history lesson.  If it hits in 2015 then we certainly have some good times ahead shortly.

[Joerii]

I'm kinda tired by this kind of questions:

When will ... ?
What do you think ... ?
Can bitcoin ... ?
Is bitcoin ... ?
Are we ... ?

I speculate that you don't know the meaning of the verb : to speculate.

[smoothie]

with current supply of bitcoins it would require $83,990.91 per BTC.

[imbladednow]

clearly late 2015:

looks like gox opened mid 2010. only data points i can find for before that are ( https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/History ):

October 5, 2009 - ($0.000764/BTC) - Exchange rates published by New Liberty Standard. $1 = 1,309.03 BTC (and theymos thought NLS was overcharging)
May 22, 2010 - ($0.0025/BTC) - laszlo first to buy pizza with Bitcoins agreeing upon paying 10,000 BTC for ~$25 worth of pizza courtesy of jercos

 
Thats why exponencional growth cant last forewer. In 2020 the market cap would be how much  ?

[sinner]

Thats why exponencional growth cant last forewer. In 2020 the market cap would be how much  ?

[dree12]

no, i think bitcoin encryption will be broken before that point.

What encryption will be broken? SHA? That's not really how the system works.. I mean technically aren't miners breaking SHA everytime a block is found lol

It is just the leading 30 to 40 bits (depending on current difficulty) of a 256 bit SHA result? Remember, each additional bit doubles the amount of time. I doubt we will ever even hit 100 bits of difficulty (as in the first 100 bits of the random hash must result in a zero) within our lifetimes.

You must not be planning on living long then... No hash algorithm has lasted even a third of a human lifespan without critical flaws being discovered. SHA2 will have to be replaced soon enough.

[Jabbatheslutt]

1 trillion dollar market cap if it ever happens will be around 2025 IMO

[BitchicksHusband]

I'm kinda tired by this kind of questions:

When will ... ?
What do you think ... ?
Can bitcoin ... ?
Is bitcoin ... ?
Are we ... ?

Maybe you should leave the SPECULATION forum then.  Just sayin'.

[geraFoerra]

You must not be planning on living long then... No hash algorithm has lasted even a third of a human lifespan without critical flaws being discovered. SHA2 will have to be replaced soon enough.

I doubt it, but it is double SHA256, so if flaw is found in SHA256 it will not affect Bitcoin

[Corelianer]

I doubt that the current market cap is true. When Mt. Gox got 5 Million USD seized they where not able to pay out customers that wanted exchange in fiat.

So the current market cap is probably 100 Million USD if all people want fiat.
Maybe also only 10 Million USD...

[LOADING.READY.RUN]

The market cap cannot be "true" or "false". It's a number calculated from a simple mathematical formula, no more no less. Most people are aware that this can in no way be compared to the amount of money that has been flown into BTC or people can get out of BTC by exchanging all existing coins.

You're assuming that the Gox USD bank transfer problems are due to a lack of cash on their side as a consequence of the Dwolla seizure. While this remains popular here, it fails to explain why JPY and EUR/SEPA transfers still work (to some extent).

[Corelianer]

The market cap cannot be "true" or "false". It's a number calculated from a simple mathematical formula, no more no less. Most people are aware that this can in no way be compared to the amount of money that has been flown into BTC or people can get out of BTC by exchanging all existing coins.

You're assuming that the Gox USD bank transfer problems are due to a lack of cash on their side as a consequence of the Dwolla seizure. While this remains popular here, it fails to explain why JPY and EUR/SEPA transfers still work (to some extent).

Right, but it's mentioned here so often, that it looks like Bitcoin is such a big business that it is in fact, not.

Hopfully not yet...

[oyeTorry]

So the current market cap is probably 100 Million USD if all people want fiat.
Maybe also only 10 Million USD...

This logic does not hold, if all people want fiat, who will buy BTC then?