Technological unemployment is (almost) here

[BadBitcoin (James Sutton)]

This is absurd.

Yes, burger flipping and screw tightening and poop-shoveling will soon no longer be available as jobs. But who's complaining? The fact is everyone thinks they are too good to do those jobs nowadays, and that includes the poor classes. The few people that are willing to do these jobs, expect absurd amounts of compensation for doing them (ie the fast food workers strikes.)

There are plenty of jobs and every time something gets automated, it tends to open up new avenues for careers. I think there is a certain line that people will not want to cross with automation due to society's ingrained fear of "thinking robots." So there should always be plenty of jobs for people that have a brain and are willing to use it - management, planning, research, medicine, etc etc...

The REAL problem is, and it's unpopular to say this but it's true, there is a strong correlation (at least here in the USA) between the groups of people who do these 'automate-able' jobs, and having a lot of children. They are quite literally out-breeding the scientists and white collar folks at an alarming rate. So you see, the group of people that work the jobs that are being taken away, is growing, while the group of people that work the jobs which are expanding, is stagnating or shrinking (this is currently being offset by immigration, H1B visas, etc.)

If you don't believe this, look at the decline in interest in mathematics, chemistry, engineering, etc. Many of those jobs are being filled by foreigners because most native home-grown Americans don't put in the study time and aren't interested in anything that has a hint of math in it.

Have you read anything in this debate? There are Engineers, Lawyers; people that have professional degrees that cannot find work (myself included) because automation are reducing even the numbers of professionals needed for projects. This isn't something that just affects manual labour jobs (however it does definitely affect them more than high tech jobs), but everyone that actually relies on income to survive.

Are you a commodity trader? Your days are numbered, Investment Banker? Again you are going to be replaced by automated agents. Just because you don't see thinking robots replacing jobs in "meat space" doesn't mean that isn't going to happen for knowledge based professions.

Funnily enough I'm actually developing an ANN heirarchy to eventually (as my master plan of course) to create a universal commodity trading agent, which will hopefully kill speculators as a profession.

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[dogechode]

I think it would be great if unnecessary jobs that don't really contribute anything useful to society were wiped out. Absolutely fantastic. You're going to get rid of middlemen? I salute you if you can, that would be a fantastic accomplishment.

As far as engineers and lawyers and others unable to find work... I call BS. I'm sorry but it's not just not that simple. Maybe you can't find work - in the area you want to live in, at the pay grade you think you deserve. But you could get a job if you really were determined to, you just might have to accept a lower wage than what you think you deserve and/or move to an area where that job is needed.

There are a LOT of people that aren't working right now because they have it stuck in their head that "I deserve 75k to do job xyz" but the market is only offering them 60k so they hold out and keep looking.... and don't get anywhere. Well, you aren't entitled to any particular salary, you just get the best you can based on what the market is willing to offer and your ability to present yourself as a desirable candidate.

[BadBitcoin (James Sutton)]

I think it would be great if unnecessary jobs that don't really contribute anything useful to society were wiped out. Absolutely fantastic. You're going to get rid of middlemen? I salute you if you can, that would be a fantastic accomplishment.

As far as engineers and lawyers and others unable to find work... I call BS. I'm sorry but it's not just not that simple. Maybe you can't find work - in the area you want to live in, at the pay grade you think you deserve. But you could get a job if you really were determined to, you just might have to accept a lower wage than what you think you deserve and/or move to an area where that job is needed.

There are a LOT of people that aren't working right now because they have it stuck in their head that "I deserve 75k to do job xyz" but the market is only offering them 60k so they hold out and keep looking.... and don't get anywhere. Well, you aren't entitled to any particular salary, you just get the best you can based on what the market is willing to offer and your ability to present yourself as a desirable candidate.

Again, I find it funny how your ivory tower prevents you from understanding supply and demand of engineering jobs heh. I should clarify; I'm in talks right now for a job that will be paying me considerably more than I feel I deserve and most likely will get it, but it was literally just luck and knowing the right people that I was even considered over other more qualified people.

Before I found this position I was spending 8 hrs a day developing my online "brand", as for the past 6 months finding literally any engineering job internationally that was even remotely related to my work experience was getting me no where at all, and I was also working as a temp worker for a local agency doing promotional work in walmart for $11 dollars an hour which I wouldn't really consider to be high wages.

Just because the majority of engineers aren't humble doesn't mean we all aren't, I feel at this point like I deserve to make minimum wage even though I have an extremely wide array of skills, just because of how easy it is to outsource my skills to India for half of that, and I'm not out of that purgatory just yet as my papers aren't signed yet.

[anu]

Have you read anything in this debate? There are Engineers, Lawyers; people that have professional degrees that cannot find work (myself included) because automation are reducing even the numbers of professionals needed for projects. This isn't something that just affects manual labour jobs (however it does definitely affect them more than high tech jobs), but everyone that actually relies on income to survive.

Is the market for your services saturated? You are an engineer, you say? Where are the interplanetary ships? Where are the launch facilities like this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Launch_loop
Why are you not working on 3-D Printers or super efficient cars or at least better compound bows? Is there no demand? I'll pay BTC 10 for a 100lbs 400 fps compound bow. Don't tell me nobody else is interested in carbon whiskers!

Tech unemployment means that machines plus a minority of human workers can saturate any conceivable market. This is not the situation we presently find. It is really ridiculous that one has to explain that on a Bitcoin forum: The present problem is the fiat money system. I suggest you read E.G. Griffin's book:
http://www.pdf-archive.com/2011/12/28/creature-from-jekyll-island-by-g-edward-griffin/creature-from-jekyll-island-by-g-edward-griffin.pdf
which pretty much explains the true nature of the FED, why it was introduced in 1913 for who's benefit.

[anu]

From the fact that you can't imagine different solutions does not follow that they don't exist.

These solution were discussed many times in this thread! All of them are either some for of socialism or "starve the useless people". You have to admit that there are no third way!

No, they were not discussed. As all collectivists / totalitarians you lack trust in people. Absent the state, people tend to do just fine. You are exactly the kind of people who brought so much suffering over Africa by constantly punching the African economy with development aid. Believe me, I have been there, I have seen how well meaning people (and not so well meaning people) brought death and destruction over what were once proud merchants, farmers or craftsmen and turned them into a pitiful mess.  And now you want to extend that devastating scheme over the rest of the world. Thanks, but no thanks.

[giantdragon]

I think there is a certain line that people will not want to cross with automation due to society's ingrained fear of "thinking robots."

Since original Luddite riot (19th century) all mainstream politicians in first-world countries share pro-automation views.

As all collectivist / totalitarian you lack trust in people.

What, what?! I think at least 30-40% will support collectivist economy, in some countries like Russia it is >60%.

[BadBitcoin (James Sutton)]

Is the market for your services saturated? You are an engineer, you say? Where are the interplanetary ships? Where are the launch facilities like this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Launch_loop
Why are you not working on 3-D Printers or super efficient cars or at least better compound bows? Is there no demand? I'll pay BTC 10 for a 100lbs 400 fps compound bow. Don't tell me nobody else is interested in carbon whiskers!

Tech unemployment means that machines plus a minority of human workers can saturate any conceivable market. This is not the situation we presently find. It is really ridiculous that one has to explain that on a Bitcoin forum: The present problem is the fiat money system. I suggest you read E.G. Griffin's book:
http://www.pdf-archive.com/2011/12/28/creature-from-jekyll-island-by-g-edward-griffin/creature-from-jekyll-island-by-g-edward-griffin.pdf
which pretty much explains the true nature of the FED, why it was introduced in 1913 for who's benefit.

I find it cute that you think that I'm not an innovator and haven't actually designed and developed 3D printing technologies, and attempted to develop 2 failed startups during my undergraduate years; I know first hand what it takes to make a successful start-up, and the first thing (when it comes to actually building something) is money. You need money to make money, even if that's money that you need to physically avoid starvation, and as a person who is on the precipice of living on welfare/homeless shelters, it isn't something that innovation alone can't solve.

I've brainstormed systems that would figuratively strip mine the solar system in a century however where the hell am I going to get the money to develop such a system if I can't even afford to feed myself? Take a breath, think for a second and just realize that I'm not an incompetent ignoramus and this conversation isn't about me, 60% of my graduating class are still unemployed or not employed fields even remotely close to science/engineering, there are hundreds of linkedin groups filled with engineering graduates searching for work; any work at all.

This isn't a matter of running out of ideas, ideas are cheap. This is a matter of literally not having the financial infrastructure for new graduates to even conceive pursuing  developing ideas into successful start-ups without having rich parents keep you afloat while you do the pre-angel work.

[dogechode]

60% of my graduating class are still unemployed or not employed fields even remotely close to science/engineering, there are hundreds of linkedin groups filled with engineering graduates searching for work; any work at all.

Then maybe you/they should have looked into what the job prospects would be before they went into that field? I seriously doubt that the market for engineers changed all that significantly in a matter of a few years while you were in school.

Or, maybe you/they need to consider alternate fields. I have worked in a number of different fields, and exactly NONE of them have anything even remotely to do with my degree.

This isn't a matter of running out of ideas, ideas are cheap. This is a matter of literally not having the financial infrastructure for new graduates to even conceive pursuing  developing ideas into successful start-ups without having rich parents keep you afloat while you do the pre-angel work.

If you are having trouble surviving, you shouldn't be looking into that kind of crap anyways. Go get a job with an established company, then you can consider thinking about a start-up business many years down the road when you have a lot more experience and savings to drawn on (and/or more established credit history for loans.)

There is simply NO WAY that I believe you couldn't go get any of about a thousand different office-based jobs making 40-50k so why you are working for $11/hr at Wal-Mart is a bit baffling to me.

[giantdragon]

Go get a job with an established company, then you can consider thinking about a start-up business many years down the road when you have a lot more experience and savings to drawn on (and/or more established credit history for loans.

The whole discussion in this thread is that now/(very soon) you simply won't have an opportunity to get a job "with an established company" because they don't need much workforce thanks to technology advances!

[dogechode]

Go get a job with an established company, then you can consider thinking about a start-up business many years down the road when you have a lot more experience and savings to drawn on (and/or more established credit history for loans.

The whole discussion in this thread is that now/(very soon) you simply won't have an opportunity to get a job "with an established company" because they don't need much workforce thanks to technology advances!

So you think they are going to replace the people who design water delivery systems, rockets, weapons, sewage treatment and routing, building specs? That's what your saying? Not in your lifetime or your grandkids' lifetimes, I have news for you.

What about doctors? Robot lawyers? Singers? Athletes? Sales and Marketing? How about government officials? The military? Teachers?

The whole idea of this is absurd. Like I said, they are only automating shitty jobs that no one should be aspiring to do nowadays.

[giantdragon]

@dogechode, you are so naive believing in the b*shit mainstream propaganda tells that is even ridiculous!
I suggest you to read original Oxford's report about technological unemployment predictions (looks very plausible). There is a list of the jobs in the end of document.

http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk/sites/futuretech.ox.ac.uk/files/The_Future_of_Employment_OMS_Working_Paper_1.pdf

[vleroybrown]

What about HUC it will employ millions.. dried up and crusty as it is

[anu]

Is the market for your services saturated? You are an engineer, you say? Where are the interplanetary ships? Where are the launch facilities like this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Launch_loop
Why are you not working on 3-D Printers or super efficient cars or at least better compound bows? Is there no demand? I'll pay BTC 10 for a 100lbs 400 fps compound bow. Don't tell me nobody else is interested in carbon whiskers!

Tech unemployment means that machines plus a minority of human workers can saturate any conceivable market. This is not the situation we presently find. It is really ridiculous that one has to explain that on a Bitcoin forum: The present problem is the fiat money system. I suggest you read E.G. Griffin's book:
http://www.pdf-archive.com/2011/12/28/creature-from-jekyll-island-by-g-edward-griffin/creature-from-jekyll-island-by-g-edward-griffin.pdf
which pretty much explains the true nature of the FED, why it was introduced in 1913 for who's benefit.

I find it cute that you think that I'm not an innovator and haven't actually designed and developed 3D printing technologies

I find it cute that you take my post that way. I haven't blamed you of anything. I was just pointing out with examples that the markets for goods and services are NOT saturated. I even marked the key sentences in boldface. Yet you still don't get it. Again:

Tech unemployment means that machines plus a minority of human workers can saturate any every conceivable market.

Obviously that is not the case.

The present problem is the fiat money system.

[kjj]

Tech unemployment means that machines plus a minority of human workers can saturate any every conceivable market.

Obviously that is not the case.

The present problem is the fiat money system.

The problem is that when you are "debating" with people that are desperate to impose a total government takeover of everyone else because they imagine themselves clever enough to end up on the ruling side, they have their hammer well in hand and they sure as hell aren't going to let you convince them that the screw they aren't looking at is anything but a nail.

[dogechode]

Between this thread and the "omg we're going to get hit by a solar flare and lose the power grid and 90% of the world population will die in 1 year" thread... when did the economics subforum become the preferred hangout spot for the paranoid delusional tinfoil hat-wearers? You guys are off your friggin meds. It's impossible to even have a sane conversation.

Fine, if you want to believe that your job will be automated away then go ahead and worry your ass off about it.

[anu]

Between this thread and the "omg we're going to get hit by a solar flare and lose the power grid and 90% of the world population will die in 1 year" thread... when did the economics subforum become the preferred hangout spot for the paranoid delusional tinfoil hat-wearers? You guys are off your friggin meds. It's impossible to even have a sane conversation.

Fine, if you want to believe that your job will be automated away then go ahead and worry your ass off about it.

While I agree with much of what you say, you have to admit that there is a problem. Up to 60% youth unemployment in some EMU countries is a problem. But the reason is not that these jobs have been automated away. The reason is the Euro. The fact that people rely on multiple McDonalds jobs to feed a family in the US is a problem. But the reason is the relentless money printing of the US financial cartel and the resulting massive asset price inflation.

One has to emphasize with these worries, but the solution is not more government and centralization. Certainly not total government. The solution is less government and de-centralization.

That should not be confused with the de-regulation that took place during the last 20 years or so. The real economy got burried in regulation during that period. The de-regulation was only for the fiscal-financial complex, and that is the opposite of creating and maintaining a free market.

[dogechode]

The other problem is that people have raised their standard of living to an absurd level. People that make 30k still buy designer clothes and expensive cellphones and have cars. This is absurd. There is even a program where you can get a cellphone via a welfare-like program, as though it were a basic need like food and water. Many people are spending more than they make so they turn to credit cards and loans to finance the lifestyle that they can't really support financially. Houses are another big issue; it wasn't that long ago that you needed to save up 20% of the purchase price and that was just how it went. There was none of this 0 down or 5% down or double mortgage nonsense, if you couldn't afford it you just kept renting.

 If people lived according to their means, even a mcdonalds salary could support them. It cracks me up when they do those examples where they try to show that a certain salary can't support a person (like the ones that were plastered all over the news around the time of the fast food workers strike,) but then you look at the numbers and they are of course assuming that the person has to have a cellphone, and cable internet, and live in their own apartment (God forbid they live with roommates) etc.

[phelix]

Unconditional income (extremely high taxation inevitable)

I don't agree to this at all. It's a wrong premise. Think cost neutral BIG.

IMHO this thread has been derailing a little. Whether there could be more white collar jobs is not the question of the OP.

There certainly are simple jobs which are not creative that are more and more being taken over by machines. What about people that can not compete against robots any more? What about a significant percentage of citizens that have nothing of value to offer for society or only at a price much higher than the cost of machines?

[bobdutica]

Tech unemployment means that machines plus a minority of human workers can saturate any every conceivable market.

Obviously that is not the case.

The present problem is the fiat money system.

The problem is that when you are "debating" with people that are desperate to impose a total government takeover of everyone else because they imagine themselves clever enough to end up on the ruling side, they have their hammer well in hand and they sure as hell aren't going to let you convince them that the screw they aren't looking at is anything but a nail.

I think kjj is right. He has hit the nail right on the head!

[dogechode]

There certainly are simple jobs which are not creative that are more and more being taken over by machines. What about people that can not compete against robots any more? What about a significant percentage of citizens that have nothing of value to offer for society or only at a price much higher than the cost of machines?

They need to adapt to survive, just like every other living thing on this planet (humans included.)