I'm wondering, OP did you take this into consideration when calculating your numbers? I'm wondering if you accounted for banned accounts, people caught or tagged for abusing merit. Where did you get your 135k members to calculate, was this everyone that has received merit up to the point of your calculations?

I would be much more confident in the numbers if I knew that known merit abusers were left out of the equation, or even factored as a 0. It also might be interested to eliminate any 0's or absurdly high outliers for the sake of realism. You'd be able to say something along the lines of "Users that have received at least 1-merit average X merit."