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[notocactus]

But personally, I am still going to want to assume or believe that it's until next month before we start seeing bitcoin making any significant up moves, and this is if the sentiment of the market remains positive in the sense that, there is no outbreak of any bad news that is capable of dragging the market down.

It is a first Bitcoin market cycle which has Bitcoin Spot ETFs and we can not rely on history in this cycle. We can take Gold Spot ETFs in the USA in 2004 and assume Bitcoin will react similarly.

Gold price did not rise immediately after Gold Spot ETF approvals in the USA. It moved side way in 10 months before taking off and I see Bitcoin and gold are different with different cycle length. Maybe Bitcoin will have shorter side way period than gold, so assume it will side way like 4 to 5 months, it still makes sense.

Combine it with a historic rhythm that Bitcoin has never made its new all time high before its halving, but usually about 6 months after that, I expect we will have some boring months ahead.

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[dwyane36]

It's crazy how big the hype was about Bitcoin ETF approval. And it's even crazier how things finally went down. People were pumping Bitcoin with the hope of ETF approval, then it got completely approved by SEC and price is going down, that's crazy.

It's worth noting that the BTC price had been rising for a few months before spot BTC-ETFs were approved by the SEC. To be more precise, the BTC price started to rise as early as mid-September. So, I think it's normal that a slight correction in the market has now occurred.

Did you manage to bet? I just visited freebitco.in and it looks like that bets are no more accepted, i.e. the event ended.
It looks like, majority of freebitco users (44%) think that price will be between 40-45K, while another part (34%) thinks it will be between 37.5-40K. It's a very interesting clash, especially right now when I see the price of Bitcoin being 39,984 USD.

Yep, for those users who have already placed their bets, it will be quite a challenge to predict the correct range this month.

[uneng]

It's crazy how big the hype was about Bitcoin ETF approval. And it's even crazier how things finally went down. People were pumping Bitcoin with the hope of ETF approval, then it got completely approved by SEC and price is going down, that's crazy.

It should be expected, because always Bitcoin price rises a lot in a short time period, it suffers heavy correction.  ETF approval impacted Bitcoin positively immediately, but some big players already had orders placed to liquidate once the price reached around 47,000$ resistance level, so it dropped to 39,000$ price range, although BTC is recovering to 40,000$ once again at this moment. I believe that if ETF wasn't approved, Bitcoin wouldn't have had the chance to reach close to 46,000$ until now. Probably prices would have already crashed below the 38,000$ line with so much pessimism among investors due to a disapproval.

Now if Bitcoin is really strong, it will secure its position around 40,000$ at least, and move forward from now on. A deeper correction would be hard to explain, though, especially so close to halving event, which is supposed to drive prices upside.

[FanEagle]

There are costs associated with trying to prevent cheaters from abusing your casino. Confiscating their balance isn't done out of self interest, it is a deterrent to prevent further abuse and also necessary to cover the costs imposed by dishonest users.

I agree with you because there is a lot of abuse that may not be detected by the system which of course creates losses for the site as well and I think that by confiscating the funds of users who cheat and commit abuse it can be used to cover the losses that have been experienced by the site so this is not done for the purpose of personal interests, this will be a lesson for other users to be honest and not violate the terms and conditions on this site.

Freebitcoin has so far paid out a lot of people from their free spins faucet even lottery prizes and so on so why abuse it just to make a profit by creating accounts of more than 1 IP, I also don't know if this is a mistake or not sometimes someone has Another view is also that this error does not actually have to confiscate the user's funds from their deposit amount and only confiscates the funds that they have earned from this site. but the decision remains on this site, everyone must comply with the rules that have been set. Everyone has their own views but the decision has been made.

I do believe that they have the right to do that as well. Abusers deserve to get their money taken away, and it's like a fund if I understand correctly from what you said. I mean it's a smart idea to have a fund like that, where you end up with all the money that you confiscate from those people and you end up with a return that would be a lot smarter and could be quite well. I know that it is not going to be a big deal, and I know that it is going to be something that matters in the end, I just hope that we could do something that would be a bit different in the end.

I just wish that people would be considering this as something as a bit more difficult in the end because what freebitco.in has achieved is not an easy thing to handle, it is a big success to stop or at least slow down abuse.

[STT]

Buy the rumor sell the news is a normal dynamic so this action is not off the chart abnormal especially, just one of those things the bull likes to kick you off if it can.  Nature of the game, you dont get to play without bumps along the way really.
  The Gold ETF in comparison again I would not rate the ETF as the main bullish trend to that asset.  I'd just point out one giant thing, like inter stellar big really which is at century start China had no gold in its national reserves.  One of the largest most powerful nations with massive dollar reserves but no gold, so for 24 years now they have been a buyer.   Also they wont tell you outright exactly the figures but they became the largest producer in the world also.  Thats a ton of demand in the market and if gold went up the people who buy and dont let go are the biggest reasons.  
  ETF in BTC will count, but over time and the hold is not a given the ETF has to sell BTC also etc.  Its all alot of rebalance.   My guess today was 5 seconds of thought I might have jumped the gun but I used up 4 figures of wheel spins I shouldn't really be keeping back in a bullish medium term market, guessing where we go down to; anyhow 41k to beat for BTC to really prove something I just used up the spins anyhow.

[arallmuus]

Today is 24th and only about 6 to 7 days left before this month finally comes to an end, and personally, I would say that expecting the price of bitcoin to top or even reach $42,500 before or during the month ending seems unrealistic, and this is because since after the ETF approval, the price volatility of bitcoin have significantly reduced, in the sense that, the price is either stable or going down most of the time.

So what range are you expecting it to hit by the end of the month? Im personally leaning towards $39k or below because according to my own memorie, btc was dumped most of the years during the period when its getting close to the lunar new year. It on next month I believe so yeah price has been gradually decreasing and even now it still lingers on $39.5k - $40.5k during today

Anyone that bet on around $39k has the advantage right now

So again, the price of bitcoin will definitely reach $42,500 and even beyond, but this is likely to happen as from next month as we draw closer to the halving which is coming up in the Month of april if I am not mistaken

probably not, the effect of halving most likely seen like atleast 6 months after halving

[dzungmobile]

ETF in BTC will count, but over time and the hold is not a given the ETF has to sell BTC also etc.  Its all alot of rebalance.

ETF effects would be big and must be counted and recent days, there are only bitcoin exchanges between Bitcoin Spot ETFs. Investors from Grayscale want to exit, other investors from other Spot ETFs absorbed it well.

If you want something simple, you can use Mayer Multiple Bands.
https://charts.bitbo.io/mayer-bands/

It says price possibly touches the red and dark red bands with prices about $83,000 to $150,000. I am realistic and not too be very optimistic, bullish, so I choose price around $100,000 to $120,000 for this 2024 bull run.

[Wiwo]

So again, the price of bitcoin will definitely reach $42,500 and even beyond, but this is likely to happen as from next month as we draw closer to the halving which is coming up in the Month of april if I am not mistaken.

But this is not me saying impossible though, for anything is always possible as long as its crypto we are talking about.

The daily charts are supposed to be above $40k for the next 7 days, but that could fail if in the next 1 or 3 days the price is still below $40k, then it will continue to be below it, even down even further, maybe around $34k - $35k, but If the Bitcoin price manages to maintain the price above $40k again, it is possible that the daily charts will give a signal for upward support in the next few days, exactly 7 days from now.

It's difficult to follow price predictions for this month because there is too much news about ETFs and others out there which is too exaggerated making the price of bitcoin seem less consistent, but I believe that if the price of bitcoin remains above $40k now they will start to rise again above $40k perhaps around $42k or $43k for the end of this month around January 31st where the bitcoin prediction results will come out and determine who will win the bet. I bet above $40k, the current price has touched $40k again when I posted this, I hope it continues to hold for the next few days.

Well, a good analysis from you there i must say, and yes, I was actually watching the market and did saw that the price of bitcoin rose and did reach $40k again, and even went above that a bit, but it has as well dropped a bit and right now trading at around $39,850 dollars, and I understand that if bitcoin will maintain a high trading volume which should bring about high volatility, then this increases the chances that we may see bitcoin reaching and staying above $40k before and by this month ending.
But personally, I am still going to want to assume or believe that it's until next month before we start seeing bitcoin making any significant up moves, and this is if the sentiment of the market remains positive in the sense that, there is no outbreak of any bad news that is capable of dragging the market down.

I am actually going to bet on bitcoin trading above $40k by the ending of this month, but I am not going to count on it anyways, it's a bet I am going to believe is as good as lost, but if luckily it wins, then lucky me and everyone else who bet exactly the same.

This period, bitcoin comes with alot of volities and for that, we have to be very careful while making predictions on the price of bitcoin, this is because alot of times, bitcoin have gone in a different direction compared to whatany market speculators predicted, but then also also we have some price benchmark marks that we are sure bitcoin is going to surpassed in the long run, and for sure 40k is one of those prices that one can bet bitcoin to reach at any points in time so for me I will freely get on that price for bitcoin in this season and time and I am sure with in the next 24 hours bitcoin is going to reach that 40k price benchmark.

[babygun]

ETF in BTC will count, but over time and the hold is not a given the ETF has to sell BTC also etc.  Its all alot of rebalance.

ETF effects would be big and must be counted and recent days, there are only bitcoin exchanges between Bitcoin Spot ETFs. Investors from Grayscale want to exit, other investors from other Spot ETFs absorbed it well.

If you want something simple, you can use Mayer Multiple Bands.
https://charts.bitbo.io/mayer-bands/

It says price possibly touches the red and dark red bands with prices about $83,000 to $150,000. I am realistic and not too be very optimistic, bullish, so I choose price around $100,000 to $120,000 for this 2024 bull run.

Lol I don't believe in technical analysis as anyone can draw some lines and make a prediction. I have not seen anyone yet who can make accurate predictions for crypto all the time. We gonna need to see what happens, right now we are in a downwards trend but in crypto everything is possible.

[Kakmakr]

ETF in BTC will count, but over time and the hold is not a given the ETF has to sell BTC also etc.  Its all alot of rebalance.

ETF effects would be big and must be counted and recent days, there are only bitcoin exchanges between Bitcoin Spot ETFs. Investors from Grayscale want to exit, other investors from other Spot ETFs absorbed it well.

If you want something simple, you can use Mayer Multiple Bands.
https://charts.bitbo.io/mayer-bands/

It says price possibly touches the red and dark red bands with prices about $83,000 to $150,000. I am realistic and not too be very optimistic, bullish, so I choose price around $100,000 to $120,000 for this 2024 bull run.

Lol I don't believe in technical analysis as anyone can draw some lines and make a prediction. I have not seen anyone yet who can make accurate predictions for crypto all the time. We gonna need to see what happens, right now we are in a downwards trend but in crypto everything is possible.

One thing that we know is that the big money entered the Bitcoin scene and we know that institutional capital are used to manipulate markets.

We can already see the artificial movement of the hype cycle in motion and how other fiat investment tools are being used to manipulate the Bitcoin ETFs.

Yes, Bitcoin ETFs bring new exposure to Bitcoin on a grand scale, but this is mostly happening off-chain.

[dwyane36]

Lol I don't believe in technical analysis as anyone can draw some lines and make a prediction. I have not seen anyone yet who can make accurate predictions for crypto all the time. We gonna need to see what happens, right now we are in a downwards trend but in crypto everything is possible.

Any market is primarily chaos. So, it is unrealistic to give accurate predictions all the time. Nevertheless, I am more optimistic about technical analysis of the market because sometimes it helps to determine the correct support and resistance levels. By the way, if you don't like technical analysis and don't use it, how do you determine the ranges when you want to place a bet on the freebitcoin site? Do you place bets by just randomly pressing a button, or do you try to analyze it in some other way?

[piebeyb]

So again, the price of bitcoin will definitely reach $42,500 and even beyond, but this is likely to happen as from next month as we draw closer to the halving which is coming up in the Month of april if I am not mistaken.

But this is not me saying impossible though, for anything is always possible as long as its crypto we are talking about.

The daily charts are supposed to be above $40k for the next 7 days, but that could fail if in the next 1 or 3 days the price is still below $40k, then it will continue to be below it, even down even further, maybe around $34k - $35k, but If the Bitcoin price manages to maintain the price above $40k again, it is possible that the daily charts will give a signal for upward support in the next few days, exactly 7 days from now.

It's difficult to follow price predictions for this month because there is too much news about ETFs and others out there which is too exaggerated making the price of bitcoin seem less consistent, but I believe that if the price of bitcoin remains above $40k now they will start to rise again above $40k perhaps around $42k or $43k for the end of this month around January 31st where the bitcoin prediction results will come out and determine who will win the bet. I bet above $40k, the current price has touched $40k again when I posted this, I hope it continues to hold for the next few days.

Well, a good analysis from you there i must say, and yes, I was actually watching the market and did saw that the price of bitcoin rose and did reach $40k again, and even went above that a bit, but it has as well dropped a bit and right now trading at around $39,850 dollars, and I understand that if bitcoin will maintain a high trading volume which should bring about high volatility, then this increases the chances that we may see bitcoin reaching and staying above $40k before and by this month ending.
But personally, I am still going to want to assume or believe that it's until next month before we start seeing bitcoin making any significant up moves, and this is if the sentiment of the market remains positive in the sense that, there is no outbreak of any bad news that is capable of dragging the market down.

I am actually going to bet on bitcoin trading above $40k by the ending of this month, but I am not going to count on it anyways, it's a bet I am going to believe is as good as lost, but if luckily it wins, then lucky me and everyone else who bet exactly the same.

Yes that's right there isn't any bad news that could drag the market down I think it's purely on a downtrend which isn't too hard, I don't expect it to go below $34k or $35k, the market right now doesn't actually look like there's much panic going on as has happened before, especially considering that the halving time will not be long before there are many queues for purchases under $40k, I think why do we see another push when the price goes below $40k then goes back up to above $40k.

Supposedly if you look at the daily charts the price of bitcoin will rise in the next few days, so let's see the final result because predictions and analysis are not always right, everything comes back to demand in the market, happy to bet on the bitcoin price prediction of $40k - $45k because I think That's a decent price to see that Bitcoin prices remain in a bullish state ahead of the halving in April. Anyone who bets on Bitcoin price predictions, hopefully they'll be lucky even if they don't get much at the Outcome Odds which are not too high.

[notocactus]

Lol I don't believe in technical analysis as anyone can draw some lines and make a prediction. I have not seen anyone yet who can make accurate predictions for crypto all the time. We gonna need to see what happens, right now we are in a downwards trend but in crypto everything is possible.

It is not my technical analysis but an overview.

After years in this market, I would like to keep my thinking quite simple. Time to enter and exit the market is fundamental for your investment and profit. If you enter and exit around bottom and top, it is good enough in my opinion and you no longer depend on technical analysis.

One thing that we know is that the big money entered the Bitcoin scene and we know that institutional capital are used to manipulate markets.

We can already see the artificial movement of the hype cycle in motion and how other fiat investment tools are being used to manipulate the Bitcoin ETFs.

Yes, Bitcoin ETFs bring new exposure to Bitcoin on a grand scale, but this is mostly happening off-chain.

New capital from Wall Street through Bitcoin Spot ETFs is very big and some days since Bitcoin Spot ETF approvals, they already bought 119,020 BTC. Currently they are buying mostly through OTC market but when supply in OTC market shrinks more, they will have to buy bitcoin in Spot markets.

Some updates for Bitcoin Spot ETF.

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[Fivestar4everMVP]

25jan24 rolling very lucky 20 WoF:


BTC: 0.00002889 [1.16 cents of USD]

LT: 108 [Who knows if next weekly draw will be my lucky one with other 9 users?]

RP: 2,889  [1.16 cents of USD]

GT: 0 [Once upon a time, I got 5 GT in a single WoF but no lucky in the semestral draw]


This was very funny. Enjoy.

LOLz, it is commonly said that hope is what drives a gambler to keep trying and trying and trying over and all over again and again, never giving up.

Current, I think I also got around the same number of lottery tickets, but I honestly have stepped hoping to be lucky for a the withdraw, because for several weeks now, I've been spending bitcoins won from wheel of fortune on lottery tickets, coupled with the ones I get for free each time I roll the faucet, but then, all this efforts have never come out positive for me week in, week out.

So, right now, I just dont care much about lotteries any more, even though I still do own some tickets every week, just incase the unexpected decides to happen.

And speaking of golden ticket, once have I managed to get just 1 golden ticket, but wasnt lucky in the draw as well.
Considering how limited and rare the golden ticket is, owning 5 of it in one season should have won you the lambo, but you weren't lucky possibly because, there must have been other customers who own more than 5.

Anyways, good luck to us this week in the lottery.

[TheUltraElite]

Lol I don't believe in technical analysis as anyone can draw some lines and make a prediction. I have not seen anyone yet who can make accurate predictions for crypto all the time. We gonna need to see what happens, right now we are in a downwards trend but in crypto everything is possible.

Technical analysis is correct 50% of the times and wrong 50% of the times. It is not a proper science and more of a psuedoscience. Hence better not to depend completely on it but make your predictions about price depending on how the market is moving and what the news have been propagating recently. A lot of big whales can turn markets the other way round so we can still be wrong.

Hence we get most of our predictions wrong in any case unless you get lucky. So it just another type of gambling finally. Trading and making predictions are two different things though.

[pawanjain]

Lol I don't believe in technical analysis as anyone can draw some lines and make a prediction. I have not seen anyone yet who can make accurate predictions for crypto all the time. We gonna need to see what happens, right now we are in a downwards trend but in crypto everything is possible.

Technical analysis is correct 50% of the times and wrong 50% of the times. It is not a proper science and more of a psuedoscience. Hence better not to depend completely on it but make your predictions about price depending on how the market is moving and what the news have been propagating recently. A lot of big whales can turn markets the other way round so we can still be wrong.

Hence we get most of our predictions wrong in any case unless you get lucky. So it just another type of gambling finally. Trading and making predictions are two different things though.

Nothing can be predicted accurately all the time. Technical, fundamental, psychological analysis etc.. are all just done for a reference.
We can use it for reference to make a prediction but nobody can guarantee that the prediction will come true.It's just a "probability" which may or may not occur.
From my analysis, BTC will "probably" stay under $40k until the end of this month and then it will start rising next month.

[SATWAT]

Lol I don't believe in technical analysis as anyone can draw some lines and make a prediction. I have not seen anyone yet who can make accurate predictions for crypto all the time. We gonna need to see what happens, right now we are in a downwards trend but in crypto everything is possible.

Technical analysis is correct 50% of the times and wrong 50% of the times. It is not a proper science and more of a psuedoscience. Hence better not to depend completely on it but make your predictions about price depending on how the market is moving and what the news have been propagating recently. A lot of big whales can turn markets the other way round so we can still be wrong.

Hence we get most of our predictions wrong in any case unless you get lucky. So it just another type of gambling finally. Trading and making predictions are two different things though.

Nothing can be predicted accurately all the time. Technical, fundamental, psychological analysis etc.. are all just done for a reference.
We can use it for reference to make a prediction but nobody can guarantee that the prediction will come true.It's just a "probability" which may or may not occur.
From my analysis, BTC will "probably" stay under $40k until the end of this month and then it will start rising next month.

About bitcoin price I have to be agreed with you because I am also expecting rang between $35K to $40K with after this we can expect good movement which could be brought good bull run but still we have to wait for the few days about this all.
Few days back I have debate on social media about gambling and predictions with mostly believe these things are surely mostly related to luck as techniques, analysis and fundamentals can go wrong against luck while here we also have 1 lottery ticket holder as winner and many times peoples with 100K lottery ticket holders are having nothing to cheer or mostly have prizes less than their investments but this all about is part of the game, and we have to accept realities.

[STT]

Combine it with a historic rhythm that Bitcoin has never made its new all time high before its halving, but usually about 6 months after that, I expect we will have some boring months ahead.

Yah thats basically the gist of how I view it as the wider market has a larger momentum and generally BTC should spike less then it would in prior bull runs; patience is not something we especially account for in the correct proportion.   Before we can climb a ladder we must build it and what happens if we rush the job and its really not fit for purpose or will take the weight, well we repeat ourselves alot and reset as we find the rungs on the ladder arent good enough for the climb just yet.
   It'll take some time and last year 2023 my conclusion in prospect was consolidation, not a negative actually great groundwork there and looks good when looking back.  This year is not imo take off straight up exactly though I wouldnt want to rule it out exactly, the halvening is less important each time it occurs the ETF is good but again a process over time so I favor the view of a gradually build also.  Actually slower is better for a longer term move, fast move up can be just a blip and most of us wont catch that benefit anyhow so I prefer slower.

I won the 5k level of sats on the wheel spin, right about now its adjusted to almost half the max.   Would be nice to max out the spins reward at a higher level with a lower BTC price at least temporally but Im just not confident of being able to do that especially now.