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Author Topic: FreeBitco.in - Win a Lamborghini Huracan LP 580-2!!  (Read 325181 times)
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July 09, 2019, 04:00:37 PM
 #9381

--Snip

Congratulations to the winner his luck is very strong, and this has happened before too with many people who had low number of tickets. @BTCevo you should indeed continue you never know when you may get lucky, by the way do you buy tickets for each round or you’re cashing out your accumulated faucet income?. I used to play in each round before hoping to hit the lottery, though I never managed to hit it I did hit 9999 once, and then I stopped playing lottery maybe it’s time I resumed playing again and try my luck.
It does happen very frequently, just because you have a lot of tickets doesn't mean you will win, it does give you a bigger chance to hit of course and everyone knows that so they buy a lot of tickets but if we are speaking technicality you can win with just 1 ticket, you need to just have 1 ticket to win the big prize, same with lambo too, a dude with just 1 ticket could get a lambo, that is just how the math is, by buying more tickets you are making your winning chance higher of course but that doesn't change the fact that only one ticket will win it all.

I remember as low as 76 tickets winning the big prize in the lottery section and that wasn't like too long ago, I haven't checked it for a long time because I gave up and only get tickets from affiliates doing stuff but it is quite possible.

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July 09, 2019, 09:55:12 PM
 #9382

Quote
How they can be so lucky

Theres far more people with 76 tickets then the few people with say 10k tickets.    If the masses with 76 tickets each add into a greater majority then the 1% peoples thats how we see quite often the little guys pop up on the winners.    It does make sense from a sum total view but yea I also would be pissed off if I had that many tickets, balance in the force also means somewhere out there is also a person very happy at being chosen by the gods of luck which is something I guess :p

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July 10, 2019, 01:13:28 PM
 #9383

~
Because since you have already won last time, you have statistically very little chance to consecutively win a second time at these odds...
and especially because it's India!

It's a known fact that previous outcomes do not affect future ones. Gamblers who don't understand this set a dicebot to "Increase by 10,000% on loss" playing with 98% win chance, and lose all their balance because of just two consecutive losses. I said "just" because there can be 3, and probably even more. I myself won 3 times in a row once, playing with 1% win chance. In fact I didn't win 3 times because I changed side, not believing that it can happen the third time, but it happened.

Statistics works good with millions and billions of events, but it fails frequently with not that many of them.

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July 10, 2019, 02:32:18 PM
 #9384

~
Because since you have already won last time, you have statistically very little chance to consecutively win a second time at these odds...
and especially because it's India!

It's a known fact that previous outcomes do not affect future ones. Gamblers who don't understand this set a dicebot to "Increase by 10,000% on loss" playing with 98% win chance, and lose all their balance because of just two consecutive losses. I said "just" because there can be 3, and probably even more. I myself won 3 times in a row once, playing with 1% win chance. In fact I didn't win 3 times because I changed side, not believing that it can happen the third time, but it happened.

Statistics works good with millions and billions of events, but it fails frequently with not that many of them.
You won a second time, NZ beat India.
Congratulations. But it's sad for you, you only bet few satoshis each time.

 
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July 10, 2019, 06:56:32 PM
 #9385

~
Because since you have already won last time, you have statistically very little chance to consecutively win a second time at these odds...
and especially because it's India!

It's a known fact that previous outcomes do not affect future ones. Gamblers who don't understand this set a dicebot to ""Increase by 10,000% on loss"" playing with 98% win chance, and lose all their balance because of just two consecutive losses. I said ""just"" because there can be 3, and probably even more. I myself won 3 times in a row once, playing with 1% win chance. In fact I didn't win 3 times because I changed side, not believing that it can happen the third time, but it happened.

Statistics works good with millions and billions of events, but it fails frequently with not that many of them.

I think it could be hardcoded in the algorithm that with every won bet the odds of winning the next  bet are altered ever so slightly. Now I am no programmer would like someone credible to either confirm or deny this?

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July 10, 2019, 08:21:36 PM
 #9386

~
Because since you have already won last time, you have statistically very little chance to consecutively win a second time at these odds...
and especially because it's India!

It's a known fact that previous outcomes do not affect future ones. Gamblers who don't understand this set a dicebot to ""Increase by 10,000% on loss"" playing with 98% win chance, and lose all their balance because of just two consecutive losses. I said ""just"" because there can be 3, and probably even more. I myself won 3 times in a row once, playing with 1% win chance. In fact I didn't win 3 times because I changed side, not believing that it can happen the third time, but it happened.

Statistics works good with millions and billions of events, but it fails frequently with not that many of them.

I think it could be hardcoded in the algorithm that with every won bet the odds of winning the next  bet are altered ever so slightly. Now I am no programmer would like someone credible to either confirm or deny this?

Why is that?

They are different bets, same odds. If you modify the code as you suggested that would be cheating nothing else. It could be done but It wouldn't be honest.




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July 10, 2019, 08:59:37 PM
 #9387

I think it could be hardcoded in the algorithm that with every won bet the odds of winning the next  bet are altered ever so slightly. Now I am no programmer would like someone credible to either confirm or deny this?

If you open a new deck of cards and pick one randomly, then you have 1/52 chance of getting a King of Spades.

Now, you open a new deck, and you draw another random card. You still have 1/52 chance of getting a King of Spades, because everything resets after every attempt (a new deck).

This game is provably fair; so you can verify that the number is calculated randomly. I see it hard to develop such a complex code that takes provably fair into account  Undecided

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July 11, 2019, 03:50:15 AM
 #9388

To just put it simply, they dont have to cheat to make a profit.   It would be stupid for them to cheat or impair the odds in this scenario, they stand to lose a very long term good standing and reputation in the community.    
   Also if you push the needle too often it will show and be noticed in peoples appraisal of their risk reward, some people are seriously obsessed with calculating every iteration and there is a maths and probability behind this whole operation.   Even if the code didnt show, eventually the biased results would show up as a strange signature in game results.
    Its just really not probable or smart choice for the company to be dishonest especially not unless they can make large amounts.   Gambling is already a very profitable business going back thousands of years its been this way, a new platform doesnt change the basic dynamics.   The biggest problem is to get the crowd in the first place, that job done its a good operation to run on average.
    People come up with a conspiracy but miss whats in plain sight, the profit margin and things like that, smart people dont steal they come up with a popular product with a nice margin on it. Do that and you are good

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July 11, 2019, 04:25:10 AM
 #9389

In case someone interested, this time I bet on New Zealand in the ICC Cricket World Cup Semi Final between India and New Zealand event. But do not take an example from me, think for yourself. I almost always bet with high odds, and I'm wrong most of the time. Smiley

That 6th wicket partnership must have made you a bit nervous  Wink



To just put it simply, they dont have to cheat to make a profit.   It would be stupid for them to cheat or impair the odds in this scenario, they stand to lose a very long term good standing and reputation in the community.    


^^^^^^^^^ This a thousand times.

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July 11, 2019, 06:35:17 AM
 #9390

I just want to congratulate Wetsuit for not selling out Bitcoin by accepting 100s of Alt coins on Freebitco.in. Recently Stake.com announced that they would be accepting Ripple now and in my opinion Ripple is not even a true Crypto currency.  Roll Eyes

Freebitco.in has been a strong supporter of Bitcoin since the introduction of the Bitcoin faucet and a lot has changed since then, but one pillar has stand the test of time and that is that the site still supports Bitcoin as the primary token.  Wink

I know the "new" revamped site was rumored to support more coins and that Wetsuit supported Doge coin on the sister site, but Freebitco.in has been pure from the start!.  Grin

 
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July 11, 2019, 07:09:34 AM
 #9391

Quote
How they can be so lucky

Theres far more people with 76 tickets then the few people with say 10k tickets.    If the masses with 76 tickets each add into a greater majority then the 1% peoples thats how we see quite often the little guys pop up on the winners.    It does make sense from a sum total view but yea I also would be pissed off if I had that many tickets, balance in the force also means somewhere out there is also a person very happy at being chosen by the gods of luck which is something I guess :p

Looking at it from this point of view, it's hard to argue;) I don't always play every round but when I do, I aim for at least 0.01% chance. So yeah, it's a 1 in 10,000 chance but that's just like playing dice at x9999. I've seen plenty of people doing it so I think, why the hell not me? I'll be sure to share in here when I hit that lottery! Just please don't let it be 10th place hahaha.

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July 11, 2019, 05:02:57 PM
 #9392

Quote
How they can be so lucky

Theres far more people with 76 tickets then the few people with say 10k tickets.    If the masses with 76 tickets each add into a greater majority then the 1% peoples thats how we see quite often the little guys pop up on the winners.    It does make sense from a sum total view but yea I also would be pissed off if I had that many tickets, balance in the force also means somewhere out there is also a person very happy at being chosen by the gods of luck which is something I guess :p

Looking at it from this point of view, it's hard to argue;) I don't always play every round but when I do, I aim for at least 0.01% chance. So yeah, it's a 1 in 10,000 chance but that's just like playing dice at x9999. I've seen plenty of people doing it so I think, why the hell not me? I'll be sure to share in here when I hit that lottery! Just please don't let it be 10th place hahaha.
It doesn't have to be that way, for example 100 people with 1 ticket versus 1 person with 99 tickets type of thinking is doable as well and might be true but you could also have like 100 tickets total and one guy has 99 of all tickets and there is just 1 ticket left for someone else, that person still can win. So masses with small numbers vs 1% of big ticket holders doesn't have to be the case at all times, since they have a lottery every week sometimes those could change, sometimes just 20 people could own more than half of all tickets but as long as there is 1 ticket left, even in a billion tickets sold, that person could win it all. That is why both of these are possible, it could be the masses collectively being bigger than whales or it could be whales getting most of it but that one ticket being very lucky.

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July 12, 2019, 06:07:49 AM
 #9393


It doesn't have to be that way, for example 100 people with 1 ticket versus 1 person with 99 tickets type of thinking is doable as well and might be true but you could also have like 100 tickets total and one guy has 99 of all tickets and there is just 1 ticket left for someone else, that person still can win. So masses with small numbers vs 1% of big ticket holders doesn't have to be the case at all times, since they have a lottery every week sometimes those could change, sometimes just 20 people could own more than half of all tickets but as long as there is 1 ticket left, even in a billion tickets sold, that person could win it all. That is why both of these are possible, it could be the masses collectively being bigger than whales or it could be whales getting most of it but that one ticket being very lucky.

Yes of course I think I get it. I know how probability works and chance is chance, but you know psycho. A big chance to win and a small chance to win, multiple small chances and 1 huge chance, probability is a confusing game but it's fun and that's why we all try our luck. Statistically, I don't know how it works across the whole world and the whole lifetime of gambling but I suspect that it is all very close to neutral expected value, but who knows?

Statistically, I have been at 0.01% chance or more maybe even less than 10 times. So I should not expect to win haha.

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July 12, 2019, 06:14:56 PM
 #9394


It doesn't have to be that way, for example 100 people with 1 ticket versus 1 person with 99 tickets type of thinking is doable as well and might be true but you could also have like 100 tickets total and one guy has 99 of all tickets and there is just 1 ticket left for someone else, that person still can win. So masses with small numbers vs 1% of big ticket holders doesn't have to be the case at all times, since they have a lottery every week sometimes those could change, sometimes just 20 people could own more than half of all tickets but as long as there is 1 ticket left, even in a billion tickets sold, that person could win it all. That is why both of these are possible, it could be the masses collectively being bigger than whales or it could be whales getting most of it but that one ticket being very lucky.

Yes of course I think I get it. I know how probability works and chance is chance, but you know psycho. A big chance to win and a small chance to win, multiple small chances and 1 huge chance, probability is a confusing game but it's fun and that's why we all try our luck. Statistically, I don't know how it works across the whole world and the whole lifetime of gambling but I suspect that it is all very close to neutral expected value, but who knows?

Statistically, I have been at 0.01% chance or more maybe even less than 10 times. So I should not expect to win haha.
Agreeing that some sort of psychology is also mixed up with this matter but if we do try to make calculations and probability we do really see the advantage of winning for that person who do accumulate most of the tickets rather into those masses but somehow even how small the chances are theres always the probability of winning.This is why its always been important to know the fairness on how they do choose up winners.

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|ROULETTE
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July 13, 2019, 12:57:05 PM
 #9395

~
Because since you have already won last time, you have statistically very little chance to consecutively win a second time at these odds...
and especially because it's India!

It's a known fact that previous outcomes do not affect future ones. Gamblers who don't understand this set a dicebot to "Increase by 10,000% on loss" playing with 98% win chance, and lose all their balance because of just two consecutive losses. I said "just" because there can be 3, and probably even more. I myself won 3 times in a row once, playing with 1% win chance. In fact I didn't win 3 times because I changed side, not believing that it can happen the third time, but it happened.

Statistics works good with millions and billions of events, but it fails frequently with not that many of them.
You won a second time, NZ beat India.
Congratulations. But it's sad for you, you only bet few satoshis each time.

Yes, I won that time too, despite your predictions Smiley



And, no, it's not sad for me, winning always feels good.

~ I think it could be hardcoded in the algorithm that with every won bet the odds of winning the next  bet are altered ever so slightly. Now I am no programmer would like someone credible to either confirm or deny this?

Of course it's doable in terms of programming, but it's impossible to implement in a provably fair game, which is MULTIPLY BTC on freebitco.in. In short, each roll is independent, and they can't affect the outcome in any way.

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July 13, 2019, 03:13:58 PM
 #9396

~
Because since you have already won last time, you have statistically very little chance to consecutively win a second time at these odds...
and especially because it's India!

It's a known fact that previous outcomes do not affect future ones. Gamblers who don't understand this set a dicebot to "Increase by 10,000% on loss" playing with 98% win chance, and lose all their balance because of just two consecutive losses. I said "just" because there can be 3, and probably even more. I myself won 3 times in a row once, playing with 1% win chance. In fact I didn't win 3 times because I changed side, not believing that it can happen the third time, but it happened.

Statistics works good with millions and billions of events, but it fails frequently with not that many of them.
You won a second time, NZ beat India.
Congratulations. But it's sad for you, you only bet few satoshis each time.

Yes, I won that time too, despite your predictions Smiley



And, no, it's not sad for me, winning always feels good.
Yes you're a very strong bettor indeed, and I would be curious to know how many people in the world won these 2 bets in a row.

Of course it's doable in terms of programming, but it's impossible to implement in a provably fair game, which is MULTIPLY BTC on freebitco.in. In short, each roll is independent, and they can't affect the outcome in any way.
I disagree with that, if the game is really random and "provably fair" then the Gaussian law tells us that the probability tends to be respected, so when you flip a coin there are more chances you get 10 times heads and 10 times tails than you get 19times heads and 1 time tails...

 
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July 13, 2019, 04:22:12 PM
 #9397

Statistically, I have been at 0.01% chance or more maybe even less than 10 times. So I should not expect to win haha.

If you have 0.01% and never win, how much so you expect others below than that to win some amount here? I agreed that huge tickets does not guarantee you to win as well but still the chance is much bigger and we expect to aim for 1st prize so numbers of tickets is really matter. And I do not know if there is a same numbers of tickets that distributed each week, because I mostly played with 100k satoshi but never hit any prizes as well
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July 13, 2019, 08:57:02 PM
 #9398

There is any way to track the bets expired after the end of one event?

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July 13, 2019, 10:31:43 PM
 #9399

I decided to have a bet on the BTC price prediction as I won a little BTC from Halep winning the Women's Wimbledon title against Serena Williams. It was a risky bet but I thought Halep had a good tournament and that it was time for her to beat Serena as their last few matches have been close so it was nice to see Halep win and also win me some BTC. I like how this site has beating on sports now and I hope that the owner can add many more sports in the future.



.
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[15.00000000 BTC]


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July 13, 2019, 11:09:34 PM
Merited by coinlocket$ (1)
 #9400

There is any way to track the bets expired after the end of one event?

Select Category -> Pending (for events that have yet to settle, AFAIK settlement is done manually so events might stick in there for a few hours when they complete) or Expired (for events that have settled). You can also specifically view your settled/pending bets with "My Expired Bets".

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