Old Trend vs New Trend vs Unsustainable Bubble ??? + "6 Step Pattern Analysis"

[wachtwoord]

How about a very long term trend between Oct '10 and Jan '13?

thats doesnt seem to match the "lows". We can, however, extend the old trend line towards februari 2011, that makes no difference, but I would rather not (Ill post why in a few minutes)

I leave the early days of bitcoin out. The start of the old trend line was taken at the moment when DPR started advertising The Silk Road, and bitcoin became usefull at once (ignoring the 10k BTC pizza :p )

No it doesn't match the other lows but it's a nice lower bound (it touches the graph twice and is south of the graph for the rest of it). Sometimes it's nice to be conservative

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[Zangelbert Bingledack]

I am hoping we go up soon just because I'm bored with this price level, but that probably means consolidation until I (and others) start to doubt the Fall 2013 bull run, at which point it will probably start again. I don't know. If it doesn't go up within another week, I will reconsider the way I view the recent signs, which by all appearances seem to be nothing other than very strongly bullish. But I think it will.

[oda.krell]

I voted 'new trend', but it's not exactly representative of my own beliefs: I think we will continue to bounce between various trends, based on both btc fundamentals and market dynamics (i.e. a feedback loop).

I've written the following argument several times throughout the past months, but there seems to be this widespread believe that there is *the one trend* that governs the price. And then, when the price actually deviates from what that trend predicted, people say that before growth continues price first needs to "fall back" or "deflate" back to the price predicted by the old trend.

Nothing like that actually happens. In an already simplified picture, what actually happens that external (fundamentals) and internal (the market) reasons create various trends, and control which trend price follows at which point, and for how long. Those trends are perhaps attractors, so "falling back to an old trend" is certainly a possibility, but what we saw in the post-April period is that price can also just pick up from some point on a new trend, but continue from there on another trend. That is, price didn't need to "deflate" completely, as so many predicted -- it simply dropped a point at which the market concluded that btc is priced reasonably low, and then continued on a slightly more sane growth path than the super-exponential one we saw in April (and perhas now, when we were getting close to the ATH again).

What I'm trying to say is: trends are maybe a useful tool, but I don't think any particular trend will govern price within the next year. I would only say we can describe the boundaries: Barring catastrophic news, the "old trend" will mark the lower bound, while the upper bound is probably marked by what you call the "new trend", barring extremely *good* news re: adoption and awareness. (keep in mind, while the *relative* increase, roughly one order of magnitude, has many precedents in btc history, the *absolute* amount of money needed to enter the market increases -- it's not imossible that this will happen, but it will require some particularly good news, like a large enough online retailer accepting btc, or something like that)

[Valerian77]

... we should expect the trend line go up after each boom [boom-burst events , fundamentals are affected by awareness]. ... new trend line would be parallel to the old line (0.46% a day), but above it, on 4x distance. So in one year time we can expect 300*(200/55) ~ 1100 USD.

Agree fundamentally. Oda explains the background:

... boundaries: Barring catastrophic news, the "old trend" will mark the lower bound, while the upper bound is probably marked by what you call the "new trend", barring extremely *good* news re: adoption and awareness. (keep in mind, while the *relative* increase, roughly one order of magnitude, has many precedents in btc history, the *absolute* amount of money needed to enter the market increases -- it's not imossible that this will happen, but it will require some particularly good news, like a large enough online retailer accepting btc, or something like that)

In the world there is a fundamental trend for increasing acceptance of Bitcoin which is a strong supporter for the the lower bound (0.46% a day). But on top every boom burst event shifts or lifts the trendline upwards.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

I voted 'new trend', but it's not exactly representative of my own beliefs: I think we will continue to bounce between various trends, based on both btc fundamentals and market dynamics (i.e. a feedback loop).

I've written the following argument several times throughout the past months, but there seems to be this widespread believe that there is *the one trend* that governs the price. And then, when the price actually deviates from what that trend predicted, people say that before growth continues price first needs to "fall back" or "deflate" back to the price predicted by the old trend.

Nothing like that actually happens. In an already simplified picture, what actually happens that external (fundamentals) and internal (the market) reasons create various trends, and control which trend price follows at which point, and for how long. Those trends are perhaps attractors, so "falling back to an old trend" is certainly a possibility, but what we saw in the post-April period is that price can also just pick up from some point on a new trend, but continue from there on another trend. That is, price didn't need to "deflate" completely, as so many predicted -- it simply dropped a point at which the market concluded that btc is priced reasonably low, and then continued on a slightly more sane growth path than the super-exponential one we saw in April (and perhas now, when we were getting close to the ATH again).

What I'm trying to say is: trends are maybe a useful tool, but I don't think any particular trend will govern price within the next year. I would only say we can describe the boundaries: Barring catastrophic news, the "old trend" will mark the lower bound, while the upper bound is probably marked by what you call the "new trend", barring extremely *good* news re: adoption and awareness. (keep in mind, while the *relative* increase, roughly one order of magnitude, has many precedents in btc history, the *absolute* amount of money needed to enter the market increases -- it's not imossible that this will happen, but it will require some particularly good news, like a large enough online retailer accepting btc, or something like that)

Food for thought. Basically these trendlines are more attractors that tend to reel the price toward themselves based on the happenstantial occurences in the market.

[dnaleor]

If the BTC will not jump in the next day or 2, I will call the recent drop from 233 USD towards 160 USD as the latest "Mild Crash EVent" and we are now oficially in Consolidation [6] until 18 december
I will then also update my chart

[Chronikka]

If the BTC will not jump in the next day or 2, I will call the recent drop from 233 USD towards 160 USD as the latest "Mild Crash EVent" and we are now oficially in Consolidation [6] until 18 december
I will then also update my chart

Price seems stable above $200. Its starting to become a psychological floor now. So you're right we are probably in "consolidation" until the next spike.

[dnaleor]

If the BTC will not jump in the next day or 2, I will call the recent drop from 233 USD towards 160 USD as the latest "Mild Crash EVent" and we are now oficially in Consolidation [6] until 18 december
I will then also update my chart

Price seems stable above $200. Its starting to become a psychological floor now. So you're right we are probably in "consolidation" until the next spike.

Update:

My prediction for the future:
There will be less volatility due to more (and rapid) adoption of bitcoin (more investment, less speculation). So we will see smaller bubbles.
The current 2013 bubble is much smaller than the 2011 bubble (smaller slope of the red lines and shorter lines).
If this trend continues, we will see at a certain point just stable (exponential) growth.

[Wekkel]

So it's 'stable' exponential growth which itself is exponential again as well. Very stable indeed.

[dnaleor]

So it's 'stable' exponential growth which itself is exponential again as well. Very stable indeed.

we will see this trend accelerate until a we reach majority in the adoption curve:


I just want to point out that volatility will become smaller when more prople buy and hold.

[Valerian77]

we will see this trend accelerate until a we reach majority in the adoption curve:


I just want to point out that volatility will become smaller when more prople buy and hold.

Where in the curve are we now ?

[derpinheimer]

we will see this trend accelerate until a we reach majority in the adoption curve:


I just want to point out that volatility will become smaller when more prople buy and hold.

Where in the curve are we now ?

Entering late majority.

[BitChick]

Late majority?  What?  No one I talk to has even heard of Bitcoin yet.  I live in a very populated area, considered pretty "high tech" too.  How are we in the late majority? 

We are at the beginning of Early Adopters.

[dnaleor]

I think we are at the start of early majority...

[Miz4r]

we will see this trend accelerate until a we reach majority in the adoption curve:


I just want to point out that volatility will become smaller when more prople buy and hold.

Where in the curve are we now ?

Entering late majority.

LOL. Bitcoin investors are still a small minority, we are still in the early adopter phase. Once my friends become interested in bitcoin I think we will have reached early or late majority.

[derpinheimer]

Its either early or late majority and it depends on how much value bitcoin really has. I'm thinking late majority, otherwise the price would already be much higher. Too many wealthy people know about it to not have pushed the price in to the thousands, if it really belonged there.

I have coworkers and friends who have brought bitcoin up to me... 2 of them miners and one of them with an ASIC order. Those who I have talked to about it agree for the most part its a niche thing. Few want it, even less need it.

[Miz4r]

Its either early or late majority and it depends on how much value bitcoin really has. I'm thinking late majority, otherwise the price would already be much higher. Too many wealthy people know about it to not have pushed the price in to the thousands, if it really belonged there.

I have coworkers and friends who have brought bitcoin up to me... 2 of them miners and one of them with an ASIC order. Those who I have talked to about it agree for the most part its a niche thing. Few want it, even less need it.

If it's a niche thing that means we're definitely not in the majority phase yet. If it remains a niche then it simply won't reach the majority at all. This is a possibility ofcourse, but if it does reach out into the mainstream (majority) then the current value will seem like absolutely nothing.

[Fuyuki_Wataru]

I enjoyed reading this.

Thank you.

[derpinheimer]

Its either early or late majority and it depends on how much value bitcoin really has. I'm thinking late majority, otherwise the price would already be much higher. Too many wealthy people know about it to not have pushed the price in to the thousands, if it really belonged there.

I have coworkers and friends who have brought bitcoin up to me... 2 of them miners and one of them with an ASIC order. Those who I have talked to about it agree for the most part its a niche thing. Few want it, even less need it.

If it's a niche thing that means we're definitely not in the majority phase yet. If it remains a niche then it simply won't reach the majority at all. This is a possibility ofcourse, but if it does reach out into the mainstream (majority) then the current value will seem like absolutely nothing.

its all relative. if only 0.01% of people in the world will ever use it, and the last person learned about it tomorrow, thats still a "laggard"

[Miz4r]

Its either early or late majority and it depends on how much value bitcoin really has. I'm thinking late majority, otherwise the price would already be much higher. Too many wealthy people know about it to not have pushed the price in to the thousands, if it really belonged there.

I have coworkers and friends who have brought bitcoin up to me... 2 of them miners and one of them with an ASIC order. Those who I have talked to about it agree for the most part its a niche thing. Few want it, even less need it.

If it's a niche thing that means we're definitely not in the majority phase yet. If it remains a niche then it simply won't reach the majority at all. This is a possibility ofcourse, but if it does reach out into the mainstream (majority) then the current value will seem like absolutely nothing.

its all relative. if only 0.01% of people in the world will ever use it, and the last person learned about it tomorrow, thats still a "laggard"

If only 0.01% of people in the world will ever use it that means that bitcoin has never been able to get passed the early adopter phase and the experiment simply failed.