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Author Topic: [2018-03-29] Bitcoin Death Cross Lures Market Bears  (Read 46 times)
Karartma1
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March 29, 2018, 08:49:50 PM
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With Easter just around the corner, it almost seems ironic that the bitcoin price is technically nearing a death cross. Everywhere you turn, there’s a new forecast for the bitcoin price — from $30,000 to $3,500. Technical analysis, which is used by traders to forecast whether securities are going to move higher or lower, has been around for more than a century. It was used by Charles Dow in the late 1800s and is still relied upon today.

Read more https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-death-cross-lures-market-bears/

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March 29, 2018, 09:55:18 PM
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With Easter just around the corner, it almost seems ironic that the bitcoin price is technically nearing a death cross.

Not really. We had the same bearish cross right around this time in 2014. Same story, different year. What's Easter got to do with it? Smiley

Everywhere you turn, there’s a new forecast for the bitcoin price — from $30,000 to $3,500. Technical analysis, which is used by traders to forecast whether securities are going to move higher or lower, has been around for more than a century. It was used by Charles Dow in the late 1800s and is still relied upon today.

And if we look at Dow theory, we still haven't reversed trends just yet:
Quote
Dow believed that trends existed despite "market noise". Markets might temporarily move in the direction opposite to the trend, but they will soon resume the prior move.

We need to go lower than $6,000 to establish a trend. Until then, this could all be "market noise." But holders should always be prepared for the worst case scenario. Cryptocurrency is risky and experimental; it can always drop further than you think, and even to zero. Lips sealed

Karartma1
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March 30, 2018, 05:01:51 PM
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With Easter just around the corner, it almost seems ironic that the bitcoin price is technically nearing a death cross.

Not really. We had the same bearish cross right around this time in 2014. Same story, different year. What's Easter got to do with it? Smiley

Everywhere you turn, there’s a new forecast for the bitcoin price — from $30,000 to $3,500. Technical analysis, which is used by traders to forecast whether securities are going to move higher or lower, has been around for more than a century. It was used by Charles Dow in the late 1800s and is still relied upon today.

And if we look at Dow theory, we still haven't reversed trends just yet:
Quote
Dow believed that trends existed despite "market noise". Markets might temporarily move in the direction opposite to the trend, but they will soon resume the prior move.

We need to go lower than $6,000 to establish a trend. Until then, this could all be "market noise." But holders should always be prepared for the worst case scenario. Cryptocurrency is risky and experimental; it can always drop further than you think, and even to zero. Lips sealed
I simply shared the article, I didn't write it. Wink
I can second your comments one by one. As I have said somewhere else on the forum I still tend to watch the log scale trend chart. If we break the trend there I might start to worry.

I am not interested in preserving the status quo; I want to overthrow it. Niccolò Machiavelli
matuson
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March 30, 2018, 05:32:41 PM
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Why do stock market strategies need to be applied to bitcoin? The stock market works with the assets of enterprises. They can't change things quickly. With cryptocurrency is a completely different situation. Whales can easily expand the market in the opposite direction. Suppose tomorrow they all stop trading their bitcoins. What do you think the price will be? This is impossible in the stock market.
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March 30, 2018, 08:15:33 PM
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The article is really not making much sense, like most of those predictions based on mimicking previous patterns. There's a lot of bullshit in this article, like this sentence:
Quote
when you couple that with the fact that bitcoin has been trending steadily lower since the launch of futures, I think that it is a major negative.

There was no other way but go short when the launch started close to the peak. Any trader that hasn't dealt with crypto before would go short after seeing the chart with this 700% rise that we had in November and December. It's not an indicator of anything, and the following statement confirms that.

Quote
If we look at the evidence thus far, bitcoin reached a death cross in 2015 when it was trading in the $200 range. But in that same year, the bitcoin price more than doubled to nearly $500. Bitcoin hasn’t touched on a death cross since that time.

That's right, TA doesn't work. You're writing this whole article to prove that this death cross is going to be bad for BTC and then you give an example of the last death cross that ended up in the price going up by 300%...
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March 30, 2018, 09:41:09 PM
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The article is really not making much sense, like most of those predictions based on mimicking previous patterns. There's a lot of bullshit in this article, like this sentence:
Quote
when you couple that with the fact that bitcoin has been trending steadily lower since the launch of futures, I think that it is a major negative.

There was no other way but go short when the launch started close to the peak. Any trader that hasn't dealt with crypto before would go short after seeing the chart with this 700% rise that we had in November and December. It's not an indicator of anything, and the following statement confirms that.

The market actually pumped when CBOE futures launched. The launch of CME futures did mark the top, but I don't think it's meaningful. As you point out, the market was exuberant already and bound to crash at anytime.

Quote
If we look at the evidence thus far, bitcoin reached a death cross in 2015 when it was trading in the $200 range. But in that same year, the bitcoin price more than doubled to nearly $500. Bitcoin hasn’t touched on a death cross since that time.

That's right, TA doesn't work. You're writing this whole article to prove that this death cross is going to be bad for BTC and then you give an example of the last death cross that ended up in the price going up by 300%...

That's a pretty cherry-picked example. Looking at a single data point and extrapolating from it is a great way to be wrong. A golden cross or death cross is just one piece of information to help confirm or deny trade setups. It's just a single lagging trend indicator and should never be relied on alone.

Regarding the above example, a death cross should be more meaningful after a crazy 2+ year bull trend than after 9 months of sideways in a basing market. Context is everything.

As for whether TA works? I've been trading profitably for years. But I think your opinion is common because most people misunderstand how TA should be used. There are no foolproof trade setups. Trading is not about predicting what the market will do. It's about reacting to the market, finding EV+ setups and using risk/reward to edge out profits. It's a grind based in statistics, not a crystal ball reading exercise. The bottom line:

Most traders are losers. 80% or more. TA doesn't just work. TA (when done correctly) just suggests statistically EV+ trades given proper risk management. Even if your charts are good, you will consistently lose money if you can't manage risk.

Ten small winners are easily wiped out by one big loser. That's what most people do. Then they say "TA doesn't work!!!!!!11!" Wrong.

Karartma1
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March 31, 2018, 05:19:40 AM
 #7

Exactly! Trading is a rational activity where one needs to react to market signals and calls rather than simply predicting how things will unfold. TA in that sense never worked.

I am not interested in preserving the status quo; I want to overthrow it. Niccolò Machiavelli
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March 31, 2018, 09:47:38 PM
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I'm sometimes checking tradingview and some of those guys are almost always wrong. I don't do much TA myself and never rely on it, but I like to know what others are thinking. So, to sum up the last 2 months... First they were saying that the bottom is at 9000, but then some negative news came and we went to 6000. Then everyone was screaming that it's head and shoulders and we're going up which confirmed to a point. Then they were saying that 7000 is going to hold Cheesy when it didn't they were all certain that it's going to hit 6000 and continue up, but it didn't and bounced from 6500 Cheesy Seriously TA is right less than half of the times.

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April 03, 2018, 04:06:25 PM
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The bitcoin rate rose 3.5% per day, and is now trading in the $ 7,400 range, but the growth is still weak! will there be another fall ? who thinks what?)
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