Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend

[seleme]

Trendline from this thread, it uses period since MtGox birth  - this thread

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+^+%28+0.006044++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.82447+%29

Middle of these two trends is approx where we are now, maybe 20-30$ below.

[1713871108]

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[healthandwealth]

It seems like we are entering a period where Bitcoin will rise and fall but stay within a set range ($500-$600).  As much as I'd love to buy in 100% in the exponential increases in the future...my skeptical side has a tough time seeing it climb so dramatically.  I'm trying to think of events that could propel it 2,5,10x higher within the next 1-2 years.  Would BTC adoption from online merchants be the ticket?  Or perhaps financial or institutionalized banking support?

[kdrop22]

It seems like we are entering a period where Bitcoin will rise and fall but stay within a set range ($500-$600).  As much as I'd love to buy in 100% in the exponential increases in the future...my skeptical side has a tough time seeing it climb so dramatically.  I'm trying to think of events that could propel it 2,5,10x higher within the next 1-2 years.  Would BTC adoption from online merchants be the ticket?  Or perhaps financial or institutionalized banking support?

Over the long/medium term price is just a reflection of growth in
a) Number of transactions
https://blockchain.info/pt/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
b) Number of users
https://blockchain.info/pt/charts/my-wallet-n-users?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

As long as the exponential growth of adoption continues, so will the price.

[bitrider]

Yes, mostly correct. It is important to keep remembering that we humans are very bad at dealing with and understanding exponential change/growth. Ray Kurzweil has written about this extensively. Very tough to get our minds around this. That's why the charts and graphs tracking the data are so important, as our "gut" and "intuition" is not reliable in terms of "what is possible" or "likely"

[Threebits]

It seems like we are entering a period where Bitcoin will rise and fall but stay within a set range ($500-$600).  As much as I'd love to buy in 100% in the exponential increases in the future...my skeptical side has a tough time seeing it climb so dramatically.  I'm trying to think of events that could propel it 2,5,10x higher within the next 1-2 years.  Would BTC adoption from online merchants be the ticket?  Or perhaps financial or institutionalized banking support?

Over the long/medium term price is just a reflection of growth in
a) Number of transactions
https://blockchain.info/pt/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
b) Number of users
https://blockchain.info/pt/charts/my-wallet-n-users?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

As long as the exponential growth of adoption continues, so will the price.

Are those two charts really convincing? As another chart on blockchain.info seems have same structure, which is  "Total Bitcoins In Circulation ,A graph showing the historical total number of bitcoins which have been mined".
https://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins

Of course the mined amount increases, which I read has no necessary correlation with growth of adoption.? Do we have other charts proving growth of adoption?

[Arriemoller]

How can a growing number of users not be proof of growth of adoption?

[dnaleor]

It seems like we are entering a period where Bitcoin will rise and fall but stay within a set range ($500-$600).  As much as I'd love to buy in 100% in the exponential increases in the future...my skeptical side has a tough time seeing it climb so dramatically.  I'm trying to think of events that could propel it 2,5,10x higher within the next 1-2 years.  Would BTC adoption from online merchants be the ticket?  Or perhaps financial or institutionalized banking support?

Over the long/medium term price is just a reflection of growth in
a) Number of transactions
https://blockchain.info/pt/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
b) Number of users
https://blockchain.info/pt/charts/my-wallet-n-users?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

As long as the exponential growth of adoption continues, so will the price.

Are those two charts really convincing? As another chart on blockchain.info seems have same structure, which is  "Total Bitcoins In Circulation ,A graph showing the historical total number of bitcoins which have been mined".
https://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins

Of course the mined amount increases, which I read has no necessary correlation with growth of adoption.? Do we have other charts proving growth of adoption?

maybe here?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=314776.0
I need to do an update soon. The data is outdated...

Yes, mostly correct. It is important to keep remembering that we humans are very bad at dealing with and understanding exponential change/growth. Ray Kurzweil has written about this extensively. Very tough to get our minds around this. That's why the charts and graphs tracking the data are so important, as our "gut" and "intuition" is not reliable in terms of "what is possible" or "likely"

indeed

Everyone I know calls me crazy when I tell them that I believe bitcoin will be >10000 USD in 12 months


edit: just t let you know. I will also do an extensive data analysis on the bitcoin price for my thesis. Will post the results on this forum

[Threebits]

How can a growing number of users not be proof of growth of adoption?

With coins increasing,  I figure 'number of users' is more correlated with adoption growth than ' number of transactions".

Number of users of blockchain wallet is probably the closet data we can find representing adoption growth?

[Threebits]

It seems like we are entering a period where Bitcoin will rise and fall but stay within a set range ($500-$600).  As much as I'd love to buy in 100% in the exponential increases in the future...my skeptical side has a tough time seeing it climb so dramatically.  I'm trying to think of events that could propel it 2,5,10x higher within the next 1-2 years.  Would BTC adoption from online merchants be the ticket?  Or perhaps financial or institutionalized banking support?

Over the long/medium term price is just a reflection of growth in
a) Number of transactions
https://blockchain.info/pt/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
b) Number of users
https://blockchain.info/pt/charts/my-wallet-n-users?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

As long as the exponential growth of adoption continues, so will the price.

Are those two charts really convincing? As another chart on blockchain.info seems have same structure, which is  "Total Bitcoins In Circulation ,A graph showing the historical total number of bitcoins which have been mined".
https://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins

Of course the mined amount increases, which I read has no necessary correlation with growth of adoption.? Do we have other charts proving growth of adoption?

maybe here?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=314776.0
I need to do an update soon. The data is outdated...

Thank you. The correlation between 'new members of bitcointalk' and 'adoption growth' is a bit weaker? as even a moderator can squeeze out a lot of members, not alone saying if an other competitive forum jumps in?

Being a newbie holder, I feel adoption growth is reliable to hodl on, as it leads me to 'certainty,'  while a chart of monthly average price is still in the category of 'probability'.

[rpietila]

I had to delete 2 otherwise good posts that use the wrong trendline. Please post them to another thread. This thread uses price data which is approved by me (main difference is that my data is from 1/2009 and others from 7/2010)



Today the trendline is at 931 and we are -0.31 log units below the trend. During the whole consolidation from 4/2013 to 9/2013, the lowest below trend we ever visited was -0.341.

To reach that discount tomorrow, the daily volume weighted average would have to be 428.

I am a great fan of the theory that we will test 400 but not go lower, because of this.

[dnaleor]

I had to delete 2 otherwise good posts that use the wrong trendline. Please post them to another thread. This thread uses price data which is approved by me (main difference is that my data is from 1/2009 and others from 7/2010)

No problem mate
Maybe I will start my own thread.

I am still looking for early data. I have data for april 2010 onwards. Where did you get the data for 2009?


edit, found the answer:

1/2009-5/2010 Attempt to find data of actual OTC trades. The trades found, happened between 0.0010-0.0054. We do not currently know exactly if there was a trend to either direction during this time, or if trades were isolated. Assumed flat 0.005 for the purposes of this analysis but will change if appropriate.

I found some data for the early exchange "Bitcoinmarket": http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bcmPPUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
I will go through the forum for other data

[rpietila]

I updated the last month(s). Now it would be very cool if someone made the chart!

After the chart is in place, you can easily see how good buy point this is, with very high probability the best that we will ever more have.

Of course it is possible that this method will not have predictive ability in the future, but I would not bet against it, considering that it has predicted exactly everything that has happened since October 

[croato]

I will put some us$ in BTC again, now is right time in my opinion. Also, last time i have earned some bucks on that so i guess it would be fair to invest again.

[dnaleor]

I updated the last month(s). Now it would be very cool if someone made the chart!

Here is the chart:

I did not run a regression analysis. I will do that once I have a better data set for the period before gox.

[rpietila]

My daily dataset that I use at home is currently showing:

trendprice = 10^ (0,003066x - 2,904980)

R^2 = 0,928955.

I think the R term is pretty cool for a 5.25 year dataset spanning over 6 decades (ADD: of prices, LOL)

[durrrr]

I updated the last month(s). Now it would be very cool if someone made the chart!

Here is the chart:

I did not run a regression analysis. I will do that once I have a better data set for the period before gox.

this is really crazy to see how good of an investment bitcoin would have been for the early adopters. like wow thousand % returns and stuff very good to see

[marcus_of_augustus]

this is really crazy to see how good of an investment bitcoin would have been for the early adopters. like wow thousand % returns and stuff Smiley very good to see

Depending of course on the final adoption numbers it could be that we are still in early adopter, early majority stage of network growth, e.g. 2 or 3 more orders of magnitude growth left.

Those people messing around with bitcoin when it was worth cents or a dollar weren't early adopters but akin to the founding members of a start-up, garage-dwelling innovators, experimenters tinkering where absolutely nothing was certain or even clear what it was they were messing with. Some of this fog is clearing but nothing is yet certain, the risks to failure however decrease with every increase in usage (and thus price) somewhat paradoxically.

[durrrr]

this is really crazy to see how good of an investment bitcoin would have been for the early adopters. like wow thousand % returns and stuff Smiley very good to see

Depending of course on the final adoption numbers it could be that we are still in early adopter, early majority stage of network growth, e.g. 2 or 3 more orders of magnitude growth left.

Those people messing around with bitcoin when it was worth cents or a dollar weren't early adopters but akin to the founding members of a start-up, garage-dwelling innovators, experimenters tinkering where absolutely nothing was certain or even clear what it was they were messing with. Some of this fog is clearing but nothing is yet certain, the risks to failure however decrease with every increase in usage (and thus price) somewhat paradoxically.

i could see this being true and i love the anology of the founders. but i feel like you are right about 2-3 more growths left and bitcoins being with 20-50k $ a peice in a few years and bitcoins being very popular everywehre

[minimalB]

Here is updated tonico's chart made with R:

Code:

https://i.imgur.com/ycT9ulP.png

And updated R source:
http://pastebin.com/1wFgtA79

[ask]

Waiting for update