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Author Topic: The days are over....  (Read 1868 times)
opentoe
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November 01, 2013, 01:23:55 AM
 #1

I was thinking about possibly getting another miner, but taking a good look at this pretty much makes my decision not to.


http://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin

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xzempt
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November 01, 2013, 02:35:36 AM
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pretty sure that just factors in mining with GPU's
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November 01, 2013, 04:57:38 AM
 #3

Quote
I was thinking about possibly getting another miner, but taking a good look at this pretty much makes my decision not to.


http://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin


Notice blockchain.info uses an average power consumption of 650W/Gh/s to calculate the "profit margin".  That power consumption estimate is 60 to 100 times too high.

The sad part is blockchain.info has been notified about this error numerous times by numerous people, including the venerable organofcorti, but blockchain.info apparently doesn't care.  Occasionally the MSM picks up this inaccurate number from blockchain.info and provides fuel for the naysayers and doubt for the curious.

All of which isn't to say you should get another miner.  DeathAndTaxes has a thread somewhere showing the difficulty point where each of several named mining rigs should be turned off in the future because their BTC return will be less than the cost of their electricity consumption. 

But that's not true for the network as a whole, yet, not by a long shot.


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geofflosophy
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November 01, 2013, 05:30:25 AM
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The lifetime value of mining hardware coming online today is roughly 0.07 BTC/GH. If the hardware doesn't come online within the next two weeks, that number is probably about 0.05 BTC; 4 weeks and you're down to 0.03 BTC. Mining gear coming online in 2 months is probably only worth 0.01 BTC per GH, and the month after it will be worth even less. So basically, you're going to need to do your math very carefully, and chances are you're not going to find a profitable buy in the market at the moment. The closest to profitability right now is probably Cointerra's batch 2 miners at $6000 for 2 TH, but the delivery date of those miners is highly uncertain. The reality of the situation is that you can take the $6000 and buy a miner or you can take it and buy ~30 BTC today; chances are overwhelming that the 30 BTC will win.
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November 01, 2013, 01:46:39 PM
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The lifetime value of mining hardware coming online today is roughly 0.07 BTC/GH. If the hardware doesn't come online within the next two weeks, that number is probably about 0.05 BTC; 4 weeks and you're down to 0.03 BTC. Mining gear coming online in 2 months is probably only worth 0.01 BTC per GH, and the month after it will be worth even less. So basically, you're going to need to do your math very carefully, and chances are you're not going to find a profitable buy in the market at the moment. The closest to profitability right now is probably Cointerra's batch 2 miners at $6000 for 2 TH, but the delivery date of those miners is highly uncertain. The reality of the situation is that you can take the $6000 and buy a miner or you can take it and buy ~30 BTC today; chances are overwhelming that the 30 BTC will win.

This assumes a lot, but the general idea is correct no matter what happens.  According to the extensive list of hardware ordered in the 11-13 PH thread in thsi subforum, we should see ~4x growth (1.2B diff) by the end of the year if everything ships on time.  I'd say we'll hit 2B sometime around March.  Just an educated guess though.  It's hard to say what lifetime value per GH is since power usage is a very important part of that calculation (you can leave miners on longer if they're state of the art).  Anything in the 0.6W/GH range will most likely be profitable to run in the US for quite a while.

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November 02, 2013, 05:25:08 AM
 #6

Yep the good days are gone ;(
geofflosophy
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November 02, 2013, 09:53:34 AM
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The lifetime value of mining hardware coming online today is roughly 0.07 BTC/GH. If the hardware doesn't come online within the next two weeks, that number is probably about 0.05 BTC; 4 weeks and you're down to 0.03 BTC. Mining gear coming online in 2 months is probably only worth 0.01 BTC per GH, and the month after it will be worth even less. So basically, you're going to need to do your math very carefully, and chances are you're not going to find a profitable buy in the market at the moment. The closest to profitability right now is probably Cointerra's batch 2 miners at $6000 for 2 TH, but the delivery date of those miners is highly uncertain. The reality of the situation is that you can take the $6000 and buy a miner or you can take it and buy ~30 BTC today; chances are overwhelming that the 30 BTC will win.

This assumes a lot, but the general idea is correct no matter what happens.  According to the extensive list of hardware ordered in the 11-13 PH thread in thsi subforum, we should see ~4x growth (1.2B diff) by the end of the year if everything ships on time.  I'd say we'll hit 2B sometime around March.  Just an educated guess though.  It's hard to say what lifetime value per GH is since power usage is a very important part of that calculation (you can leave miners on longer if they're state of the art).  Anything in the 0.6W/GH range will most likely be profitable to run in the US for quite a while.

The efficiency matters in terms of how long the miners can be run, but at the point where you're bumping up against electrical costs each GH is earning such negligible BTC that it might as well be 0. The asymptotes aren't that difficult to tease out.
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November 02, 2013, 12:15:41 PM
 #8

Yep mining is not really worth it anymore.
Radelderth
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November 03, 2013, 01:54:40 AM
 #9

I was thinking about possibly getting another miner, but taking a good look at this pretty much makes my decision not to.


http://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin

The link you sent is not accurate, but any how, mining is still unprofitable..

FreedomCoin
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November 04, 2013, 05:23:08 PM
 #10

Just buy some high end video cards, mine and game with them.. then just game once mining is not possible.

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