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Author Topic: how do you calculate mined coins in China 2013 ?  (Read 1014 times)
qwerty555
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November 01, 2013, 08:48:03 AM
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Dear MIners

I am attempting to calculate the (approximate) total number of coins mined/owned in China in 2013 ( or earlier but 2013 is my main focus).

I also want to establish (guesstimate) if/where/how many of  these coins are being sold and if there are wallet addresses in China that are accumulating large amounts IF that is possible.

Any help with that with info/explanations/advice /links appreciated

Thanks
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Golph
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November 01, 2013, 09:10:48 AM
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Dear MIners

I am attempting to calculate the (approximate) total number of coins mined/owned in China in 2013 ( or earlier but 2013 is my main focus).

I also want to establish (guesstimate) if/where/how many of  these coins are being sold and if there are wallet addresses in China that are accumulating large amounts IF that is possible.

Any help with that with info/explanations/advice /links appreciated

Thanks

Well, its possible but its not easy. Google analytic maybe?

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rampalija
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November 01, 2013, 10:00:59 AM
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i dont see any way that you could calculate that. Dont bother yourself quit now
qwerty555
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November 01, 2013, 10:40:03 AM
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i dont see any way that you could calculate that. Dont bother yourself quit now

You may be correct but not quitting yet.

Am trying a node based estimate then trying to estimate a rough volume of production based on that.

As of Nov 1 China has 28.6% of world nodes which may = 28 % APPROX of bitcoin production. Historical monthly data will give a total mined estimate

http://getaddr.bitnodes.io/

http://getaddr.bitnodes.io/188/china/

Will add transaction volume data from

http://btckan.com/price

and see where if there is a correlation of sorts and see where that leads unless someone can suggest an easier way.(which I was hoping for Smiley )



Also Transactions can be traced  .. Im not sure of the full mechanics yet but I assume its to on IP address and the IP address will indicate the Country. I will focus only on very LARGE transactions and large wallets   http://bitcoinrichlist.com/top500 as these should be MUCH fewer... To attempt every transaction would definitely be impossible for me but an estimate /average of total transaction data may produce a close figure.

http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/11673/can-my-transactions-be-traced-back-to-me-even-if-i-do-this

Lastly .. we have the data for how many coins are mined per month from blockchain and others. Basing on locations/ dates/numbers of mining software downloads I can start to give a percentage of mining of those coins in each Country(yes, not totally accurate but indicative if read with other data)



Kimowa
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November 01, 2013, 12:38:53 PM
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Dear MIners

I am attempting to calculate the (approximate) total number of coins mined/owned in China in 2013 ( or earlier but 2013 is my main focus).

I also want to establish (guesstimate) if/where/how many of  these coins are being sold and if there are wallet addresses in China that are accumulating large amounts IF that is possible.

Any help with that with info/explanations/advice /links appreciated

Thanks

Why you wanna do that? You wanna hack into one of the China's richest Bitcoiner or something? Smiley

Zawamiya
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November 01, 2013, 01:57:50 PM
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You might be able to estimate it based on pool.... China usually mine at their own pool right?
rampalija
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November 01, 2013, 07:57:05 PM
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but it wont e accurate, not even close
qwerty555
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November 02, 2013, 03:46:52 AM
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but it wont e accurate, not even close

Close is what I'm looking for.  I think 28% of total production for 2013 will be pretty close. Then add or deduct any big movement of coins in and out of China and attempt to estimate what they were holding before 2013

The objective is to try to understand what they are doing with the coins...selling for profit or holding for speculation, hedging savings or circumventing restrictions on money movement outside of China. They are surely not buying goods with them yet as the opportunities are few.

If we know what they are doing with them we can help "predict" where the price will go, how long it will take to get there and how big is  the danger of sudden price collapse.

rampalija
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November 02, 2013, 06:37:50 AM
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but it wont e accurate, not even close

Close is what I'm looking for.  I think 28% of total production for 2013 will be pretty close. Then add or deduct any big movement of coins in and out of China and attempt to estimate what they were holding before 2013

The objective is to try to understand what they are doing with the coins...selling for profit or holding for speculation, hedging savings or circumventing restrictions on money movement outside of China. They are surely not buying goods with them yet as the opportunities are few.

If we know what they are doing with them we can help "predict" where the price will go, how long it will take to get there and how big is  the danger of sudden price collapse.




i assume that they are holding them for speculation, and maybe some of them are big holders
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