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Author Topic: rpietila public diary -- Episode II  (Read 40598 times)
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November 03, 2013, 12:53:32 PM
 #1

Introduction

Satoshi started to run Bitcoin software 3.1.2009. In the first weeks, the community of bitcoin users numbered only a handful. The first BTC/USD transaction was 5,000 bitcoins for $5, ($0.000,001/mBTC). All the bitcoins of the world were valued at $100 at those prices.

Currently bitcoin is well established in several exchanges with large daily trading volumes. The exchange rate is now about $1/mBTC, and all the bitcoins are valued at $13 billion.

Bitcoin is the first thing in the history of the world whose value has appreciated this much (a millionfold) this quickly (less than 5 years).
This is making many ask the question -
What is this phenomenon called Bitcoin?


About rpietila

I have a long-term interest in Economics and it was also my major in Aalto University (formerly Helsinki University of Technology). This has led me to pursue a career of "private finance". I was previously interested in silver as the lynchpin of the global monetary economy. I am Founder and Partner in several investment silver dealerships.

I had known about Bitcoin in 2010 and we had arranged debates in our investment club, whether it was a viable monetary system already that winter 2010-11. I bought in only after the 2011 bear trap. I started to actively solicit Bitcoin and organize related events in late 2012. In February 6, 2013 I began to fully embrace Bitcoin and turned my back on silver. That day I sent a letter to all my clients, subscribers and later also posted it in my blog, somewhat ashamed of the slow progress of silver, and also of the (seemingly) late decision to quit it in favor of bitcoins. In the letter I issued the strongest possible buy recommendation for bitcoin.
(translation mine)

I (still) recommend each and every one to invest at least a small sum in bitcoins. I also recommend that all familiarize themselves with bitcoin [sic]. Even though typically it is more prudent to familiarize yourself with the investment first, and only then invest, bitcoin's value appreciation has been so rapid (15% monthly during the last 1.5 years) that even the reverse order could be taken. This only if you pretend to not find enough time at your disposal, to familiarize yourself with this fascinating invention, which has already revolutionized the international micropayments remittance industry and may in the future be a paradigm shift to the monetary system as a whole.

/—-****—-

I am rather proud of the millions of euros that my clients have prospered by investing in silver. One good piece of advice is better than any number of bad. Now, I believe that an investment comparable to silver has been invented. Although the risks are high (bitcoin can go to zero, like euros or dollars, unlike silver or gold), the value appreciation potential is staggering.
Risto Pietilä 6.2.2013


Since writing that and investing an increasing percentage of my and the companies' portfolio into bitcoin, I have become a Bitcoin multimillionaire. I live in Helsinki with my wife and daugher. I have recently purchased a castle to act as a Bitcoin Retreat Center.


Bitcoin Economics Resources

Apart from the Beginners' Introduction and the FAQ, the other resources are my primers and forum contribution to the bitcoin knowledge base:

Introduction to Bitcoin

Bitcoin FAQ

How bitcoins are distributed among holders of different size

Bitcoin's price trend 2009-2013

The TOP-500 Bitcoin wealthiest (not reliable, not updated)

"SSS" (Bitcoin Savings Plan)

What is the value of a bitcoin (EV method)

rpietila Wall Observer (chat thread)



Happened in previous episode of rpietila public diary 12.4.2013-18.6.2013
- rpietila explaining how he makes money with bitcoin
- Deduces bitcoin's long term target price of $300/mBTC
- Talking about Real Bills Doctrine
- Sent BTC13.37 to nkspace, an unknown forum troll
- Organized an international Bitcoin Summit in Finnish country hotel
- Developed concepts of Bitcoin Supernode System and Bitcoin Dealer Network Association
- Closed down due to declining health in anticipation of $1.400/mBTC


Happened in this thread
- Noticing that Bitcoin is designed such (declining mining rewards) that it will likely revert to corporate control starting in 2033
- Design proposal of a CPU-mineable altcoin with ever-increasing monetary base
- This discussion is tied with the Bitcoin's price trend, which will go to over a million $/BTC in its peak, which is probably 18-48 months from now
- Typhoon hit the Philippines, and we are organising the (possibly) first ever P2P cryptocurrency aid effort (lots of PICS)
- The second Bitcoin crash of 2013 is underway
- The thread is closed


Current all-purpose thread



If you want to follow my stream (all comments, most of which are quite situational).

I use mBTC whenever practical.

If I have time, I actively moderate the threads for
- bad behavior
- negative posts
- noncontent
- repetition, including "rpietila is k1ng", "+1"
- off topic.
In some threads, most of the content gets deleted after a time, because the threads are preserved for newcomers to be read in entirety.
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November 04, 2013, 12:56:04 PM
 #2

Today a quiet day. Bitcoin closed 4th consecutive "green" week yesterday. Last time this happened in January. I have the feeling based on multiple indicators that we have just started a megamove. I even bought back 170,000mBTC which I had previously sold.
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November 05, 2013, 08:26:40 AM
 #3

Since this was dubbed "Golden post", I will copy it here:

Quote


My advice for successful bitcoin investing is as follows:

- Every time the price is below the trendline, BUY
- If it is above, HOLD, if you think you can buy cheaper after a dip (for lazy investors: BUY unless the price is more than double the target)
- If the price overshoots by a great margin, such as 5x the trend, HOLD/SELL (never sell more than a fraction, even temporarily)

The trendline goes up 23% per month, so you should not sell after every little blip over the trendline, because it will catch the price so soon. Only major overshoots should be sold into. Always buy if the price is below trendline, because the trend will rise so quickly and the price will need to rise even quicker, just to catch up with the trend. Never wait in this kind of situation. We are now in this situation, since Nov. trendtarget is $310.
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November 05, 2013, 09:51:10 AM
 #4

Started a new thread, which is related to my work (enabling people to exchange bitcoins for other types of non-fiat money). Go, look and vote! Smiley
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November 06, 2013, 04:36:51 PM
 #5

This morning saw the ATH, nothing special businesswise.
(Later edit: crossed the $266 ATH from last April - from now on we would see ATH four days a week)

We are celebrating it in our BitcoinMillionaire(tm) club currently with some champagne etc. Sorry for being so short-worded.
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November 07, 2013, 12:33:18 AM
 #6

Congrats!  Wish we could join you in that party! We are a quite far from joining a millionaires club.  Perhaps in a couple years some of us can be there too if we can hold on that long and all goes well.   Grin

1BitcHiCK1iRa6YVY6qDqC6M594RBYLNPo
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November 07, 2013, 12:52:14 AM
 #7

Thanks for the encouraging words! It does not take that long to become millionaire with bitcoin. Today I was offered a bet concerning whether bitcoin will hit $5,000 before next June. Of course I took the "no" side. It is very nice if it happens, but in that case it does not matter to lose a bet. Furthermore, I already have a similar bet, but for the cutoff price of $1,000. That one I am on the "yes" side.

All in all, if in next June the price is less than $1,000 or more than $5,000, the bets cancel each other. If the price is in between (what I consider the most likely scenario!), I win both, netting 2,000mBTC.

This is just an example that you should strive to make your financial arrangements such that you win regardless (or minimum that you don't lose). Then just wait the required approximately 2 years and you will be a millionaire if bitcoin stays on track.

In the celebrations I got to use the Bitcoin ATM, and it was really cool. The bitcoins came instantly to my mobile wallet and premium was so low that I am almost ahead by now (I bought @199€, now: 197).
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November 07, 2013, 07:56:59 AM
 #8

This ATM thing is really cool. It makes Bitcoin somewhat better to accept (cash machine -> cash). Never underestimate the psychological aspects.

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November 11, 2013, 09:33:41 PM
 #9

Huh, last week did indeed score a tall green, and this week will also. On Friday I sold a BTC5 casascius for €1,470. When the buyer came back with the money, the price rise had already eaten my 5% margin over spot. The following day it had eaten the BTC1 physical premium. Then it crashed 29% and is already pretty much back where it was. Well done.  Cool

The saddest thing on the Earth are bitcoin speculators who have sold out (at a profit, or loss, doesn't matter) and can't bite the bullet to buy back significantly higher. So now they spend their time in agony and attack old and new adopters alike in forums and Facebook.

I acknowledge the fact that Bitcoin has technical issues and it may have to be reengineered sometime in the future. But from an investor's point of view, every uncertainty can be mitigated by not investing 100% of your assets into same thing. As bitcoin's rise averages over 1000% per year, it is ridiculous to think that it would be risk or volatility free.
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November 11, 2013, 10:10:10 PM
 #10

Huh, last week did indeed score a tall green, and this week will also. On Friday I sold a BTC5 casascius for €1,470. When the buyer came back with the money, the price rise had already eaten my 5% margin over spot. The following day it had eaten the BTC1 physical premium. Then it crashed 29% and is already pretty much back where it was. Well done.  Cool

The saddest thing on the Earth are bitcoin speculators who have sold out (at a profit, or loss, doesn't matter) and can't bite the bullet to buy back significantly higher. So now they spend their time in agony and attack old and new adaptors alike in forums and Facebook.

I acknowledge the fact that Bitcoin has technical issues and it may have to be reengineered sometime in the future. But from an investor's point of view, every uncertainty can be mitigated by not investing 100% of your assets into same thing. As bitcoin's rise averages over 1000% per year, it is ridiculous to think that it would be risk or volatility free.

typo: adopters not adaptors,  but I agree, it is sad to read these people embarrassing themselves.

I think that even if other coins do emerge to address some of the problems with Bitcoin (like 10 minute settlement time, representation of other commodities), Bitcoin will still exist as a reserve and large value settlement currency... so long as Bitcoin is quite valuable there will be inertia to changes to protect the existing value from being lost due to bugs.  But when/if some other crypto currency starts to eat into Bitcoin's value, its features will be incorporated Bitcoin...

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November 13, 2013, 01:59:57 PM
 #11

There is a thread that has some deeper-than-Bitcoin discussion about the state of the world. It has several facets of the topic, so best read when you have time to read several pages. Combined with my recent findings about the Bitcoin market cap growth vis-a-vis new investment flow, this paints a troubling picture of the equality of the bitcoin distribution at the bubble top.

It is hardly possible to stall Bitcoin's appreciation to a long-term sustainable value of, about 10 average apartments per bitcoin. At that point, bitcoin has risen 8 orders of magnitude already, and it is just hitting the masses (maybe 100 million people are in, so most are still out). There is just not enough time for the early adopters to get rid of the coins and acquire anything valuable. If they buy something, it is likely from other well-off people, which does not increase the number of bitcoins in the masses' hands. Capital Gains Tax is one thing that greatly hinders bitcoins from being distributed, and should be abolished.

98% of humanity won't have any bitcoins when it enters a bubble and this is a problem, since these are already the laggards, and by buying at the bubble, they make their situation worse, not better. Any thoughts?
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November 13, 2013, 02:29:00 PM
 #12

There is just not enough time for the early adopters to get rid of the coins and acquire anything valuable. If they buy something, it is likely from other well-off people, which does not increase the number of bitcoins in the masses' hands.

Interesting thought, and one more reason why we should spend our coins now.

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November 13, 2013, 02:31:17 PM
 #13

99% of people are relatively poor - its not the purpose of Bitcoin to change that.  As long as people have excess food and good housing, there is no reason to be concerned about the fact that wealth is concentrated in 1% of the population.

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November 13, 2013, 03:06:11 PM
 #14

98% of humanity won't have any bitcoins when it enters a bubble and this is a problem, since these are already the laggards, and by buying at the bubble, they make their situation worse, not better. Any thoughts?
Yes. Barricade yourself on a Caribbean Island.

In all seriousness, you touch upon a very important problem. When the whole economic landscape changes and The Last Big Bankrun (on the dollar dominated fiat system) hits us, most people will find it extremely unfair that early adopters sit on this wealth and their private pensions as well as the government's pension schemes are gone. There is one solution for that though. I will outline it in another thread.

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November 13, 2013, 03:11:30 PM
 #15

This and the following discussion is, I think, high quality concerning the economic threats to Bitcoin.

I have high hopes for the Bitcoin ATM's, since they can quickly disperse bitcoins to many hands, which I consider important. I think that having individuals with large bitcoin stashes is equally important, but that is already achieved and will probably not change that much due to inertia alone. Educating the BTC1,000+ holders is my job. We need much more people like me, who quit their day job and do some thinking.

There is some talk concerning starting a think tank for people who are strongly committed in crypto and liberty. PM me.
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November 13, 2013, 03:42:38 PM
 #16

98% of humanity won't have any bitcoins when it enters a bubble and this is a problem, since these are already the laggards, and by buying at the bubble, they make their situation worse, not better. Any thoughts?

Have you seen dukong's bitcoin ranking search? http://btc.ondn.net/search

The current blockchain holdings by address yield this distribution ....

Code:
Balance        Rank
1 BTC       195,629
10 BTC       91,885
100 BTC      10,128
1,000 BTC     1,127
10,000 BTC       95
100,000 BTC       3

Total     2,062,380

At full adoption, one could reasonably expect the same ratios of large to small holdings, with large growth below 1 BTC. Addressing your point, let's think about when the 98% of humanity acquires bitcoins. I believe it will not be in the next few years when bitcoin reaches full adoption by financial speculators, rather the masses will adopt bitcoin when it is the universal payment mechanism, e.g. everyone has a mobile debit account denominated in bitcoins for everyday point of sale purchases.

There is a lesser percentage of humanity that invests in securities and precious metals. Here in the USA, that is about 50%. It is the investor class that will propel bitcoin to the bubble you mention. My logistic bitcoin price analysis suggests that the exponential increase of bitcoin prices will continue for a few more years, therefore in the final exponential year perhaps 10x more new investors will participate - and those are the ones who may be buying near the top.

The current fiat-printing stimulation by coordinating central banks could soon be tapered off as the world economy recovers from the Great Recession. Accordingly, I expect world stock markets to return to more typical valuations during the same period that bitcoin reaches full adoption by speculators. Thus at the same time stock markets are slumping, bitcoin will be a contrasting boom. That might be the narrative that lures the last large cohort of bitcoin investors.

I am not worried about income and wealth inequality being aggravated by bitcoin adoption. Economic injustice is solvable by the political process in respective jurisdictions. As an aside, achieving the Technological Singularity is my life's mission - I am an active artificial intelligence researcher, and believe that when computers and robots put nearly everyone out of work, the political process will find a fair way to allocate purchasing power to human consumers - in a future economy growing exponentially without the constraints of human labor.
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November 13, 2013, 07:12:52 PM
 #17

98% of humanity won't have any bitcoins when it enters a bubble and this is a problem, since these are already the laggards, and by buying at the bubble, they make their situation worse, not better. Any thoughts?
Yes. Barricade yourself on a Caribbean Island.

In all seriousness, you touch upon a very important problem. When the whole economic landscape changes and The Last Big Bankrun (on the dollar dominated fiat system) hits us, most people will find it extremely unfair that early adopters sit on this wealth and their private pensions as well as the government's pension schemes are gone. There is one solution for that though. I will outline it in another thread.

http://lifeboat.com/blog/2013/04/bitcoins-dystopian-future

Quote
We need people thinking about this. I’ll admit that many of the things I wrote about may not happen at all, or may happen very differently than I imagine. However, there are lots of people touting the fantastic benefits that bitcoin and its children can give us, and I don’t see anybody talking about how bad things could potentially get.

We need solutions. When the government finally starts taking decentralized currency seriously, it will probably be doing so in a state of panic. We need to be advising governments now about how they can survive the storm and protect their populace. We need to think of ways the government can pay for its most critical operations, and what legislation makes sense to mitigate these new risks while preserving as much freedom as we can.

The Lifeboat Foundation is attempting to provide this thinking, advice, and solutions. They are already getting ready for a new advisory board, culled from computer scientists, economists, and bitcoin experts. If you make a fortune from your investments in decentralized currency, I urge you to consider how you can help all the people harmed by these rapid changes. Many bitcoin enthusiasts seem to think they will get to retire on a private island with a harem and a stable of Italian sports cars. This is wrong. Bitcoin investors need to someday become bitcoin philanthropists, and our giving needs to be targeted at helping all the people we have harmed. The Lifeboat Foundation is one option, but I’m sure there will be others.

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November 14, 2013, 04:28:14 PM
 #18

The current fiat-printing stimulation by coordinating central banks could soon be tapered off as the world economy recovers from the Great Recession.

There is no recovery. This is an illusion of increasing debt. I explained this at the following linked post, as well have a link there to the astronomical total debt-to-GDP ratios, e.g. 550% for the UK for example.

http://blog.mpettis.com/2013/10/hidden-debt-must-still-be-repayed/#comment-3179

I believe you are living in Neverland. Do you have any rationale to support that statement?

We are seeing a bounce in dollar and euro because capital is pulling out of BRICs due to the end of China's imbalanced economy. The commodity bubble peaked and is in a slow motion crash.

India is crumbling. The collapse has stalled but will renew after a bounce. Ditto China, Brazil, Russia, etc.

Accordingly, I expect world stock markets to return to more typical valuations during the same period that bitcoin reaches full adoption by speculators.

Indeed you may see a double in US stock markets due to this capital rushing from periphery to the reserve economies. This will drive US interest rates up, which will lay the foundation for the collapse in 2016.

After 2016, all hell will break loose.

Thus at the same time stock markets are slumping, bitcoin will be a contrasting boom. That might be the narrative that lures the last large cohort of bitcoin investors.

Peripheral stock markets slumping because this wave of globalization via expansion of debt is peaking, US stock market will blast off to a double between now and end of 2015 because capital is running back to the safest haven and this causing a boom in US real estate and markets.

I am not worried about income and wealth inequality being aggravated by bitcoin adoption. Economic injustice is solvable by the political process in respective jurisdictions.

No it is not. Political action invariably makes everything worse.

You fail to understand the basic game theory of political economics. Learn from Eric S Raymond, the creator of "open source" who has a claimed 150 - 170 IQ:

Some Iron Laws of Political Economics

As an aside, achieving the Technological Singularity is my life's mission - I am an active artificial intelligence researcher,

Technological Singularity is complete nonsense. I explained why on my blog:

http://unheresy.com/Information%20Is%20Alive.html

and believe that when computers and robots put nearly everyone out of work, the political process will find a fair way to allocate purchasing power to human consumers - in a future economy growing exponentially without the constraints of human labor.

You don't understand the physics of math. Degrees-of-freedom is potential energy. When you redistribute capital in effect you centralize it, thus you destroy all the potential energy in the economy.

If you boomer socialists have your way, you will destroy humanity and we will be in a MadMax dark age.

I am going to attempt to stop you. I realize you can't see your errors. I am trying to teach, but I doubt you will even read the links I provided above.

If you disagree with me, why not try to convince me with math and logic as my links above do.

P.S. I don't intend this as a personal insult. But if you are going to make statements that are consistent with destroying the world (from my perspective), please be prepared to support your reasoning with math, data, and logic.

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November 14, 2013, 05:11:37 PM
 #19

Then just wait the required approximately 2 years and you will be a millionaire if bitcoin stays on track.

Don't you remember when Jason Hommel was worth $15 million in 2007, then everything crashed.

Saying you are millionaire in Bitcoin is like saying "I expect the world to be a Neverland".

Just remember what Obama said, "you didn't earn that".

You were called "Robber Barons" in the last Great Depression.

No one wants to hear that indeed "it is too good to be true" as ALL such get rich quick schemes always are.

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November 14, 2013, 05:29:49 PM
 #20

Quote
I am going to attempt to stop you. I realize you can't see your errors. I am trying to teach, but I doubt you will even read the links I provided above.

As a matter of fact, I met Eric Raymond in Austin where I worked at an AI research company. His comments on democratic politics are interesting. But I am satisfied that economic injustice is solvable by the political process. Not absolutely solvable - just good-enough solvable. In particular, I believe that household purchasing power, when unfairly allocated, can be recognized and fixed by the political process, stemming from the will of the voting majority in democratic jurisdictions, or by well-meaning technocrats elsewhere.

Suppose in some possible world, that the three Trinity College crypto guys are revealed to be Satoshi Nakamoto, and suppose that in 2018 they are bitcoin trillionaires. Would not the UK do something about redistributing their windfall? Or more likely, they would voluntarily distribute the majority of it.

Regarding a defense of the Technological Singularity, it is off-topic here. Suffice it to say that I believe all relevant intelligent human behavior, and likewise the behavior of human organizations, can be modeled as learnable skills. My own research, following the advice of Alan Turing, is to create a computer system capable of being taught skills, and then proceed to teach it.

Your blog post mentions human creativity as a counterexample. An important AI skill that I am developing is the ability for the computer to write and modify computer programs. This is the sort of creativity that interests me.

Potential bitcoin profit provides yet another way to bootstrap this effort. And I have in mind using bitcoin as an internal currency for the system of human-mentored software agents that comprise my AI architecture.
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November 14, 2013, 05:35:59 PM
 #21

Capital Gains Tax is one thing that greatly hinders bitcoins from being distributed, and should be abolished.

Wealth tax and capital gains together could really squeeze you. Socialism doesn't reduce taxes. What reduces taxes is destroying the socialism with competition from a low-tax jurisdiction. See the Heritage Foundation data and sort on Government Spending:

http://www.heritage.org/index/explore

And realize that means the masses are prospering in that low-tax jurisdiction. Not like Bitcoin where the only who are prospering are the early adopters and the masses are not gaining any benefits.

Problem for us as individuals is we will be taxed by our national id, not by jurisdiction. We are marked already from birth.

98% of humanity won't have any bitcoins when it enters a bubble and this is a problem, since these are already the laggards, and by buying at the bubble, they make their situation worse, not better. Any thoughts?

The only potential solution I see is an altcoin which distributes coins continuously to CPU-only miners (while not diluting capitalists too rapidly since the coin is appreciating orders-of-magnitude faster than the small coin rewards). This will also raise the transaction rate (velocity of money), because the bottom 97% have a wealth distribution based on using money as cash, not as a store-of-value:

http://physics.umd.edu/~yakovenk/papers/PhysicaA-299-213-2001.pdf

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November 14, 2013, 05:55:19 PM
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Quote
I am going to attempt to stop you. I realize you can't see your errors. I am trying to teach, but I doubt you will even read the links I provided above.

As a matter of fact, I met Eric Raymond in Austin where I worked at an AI research company. His comments on democratic politics are interesting. But I am satisfied that economic injustice is solvable by the political process. Not absolutely solvable - just good-enough solvable. In particular, I believe that household purchasing power, when unfairly allocated, can be recognized and fixed by the political process, stemming from the will of the voting majority in democratic jurisdictions, or by well-meaning technocrats elsewhere.

Then you did not comprehend it deeply or did not deeply understand what I wrote about degrees-of-freedom == potential energy. The game theory has no natural equilibrium, rather it is a death spiral into individualizing the benefits and socializing the losses.

There is simply no way to convince a socialist (big government, government can solve every problem). All we can do is get out-of-your-way as you destroy yourselves over and over again in history. How many dark ages, genocides, wars, etc (that all derive from the economic failure of democracy) do I have to cite? Any way, it wouldn't make any difference, because you are unable to hear our logic. You have your ideas fixed in your mind and we minanarchists (small government) have ours fixed in our mind.

Stalemate.

Suppose in some possible world, that the three Trinity College crypto guys are revealed to be Satoshi Nakamoto, and suppose that in 2018 they are bitcoin trillionaires. Would not the UK do something about redistributing their windfall? Or more likely, they would voluntarily distribute the majority of it.

I thus assume you don't get the point. Redistributing money does not decentralize it. It is worse than flushing it down a toilet (worse because it creates the wrong incentives and behavior for the recipients). The only way that capital can be distributed productively is when people produce something for it because they then make local decisions about optimum (i.e. profitable) resource allocation. If you understand fitness and simulated annealing, then you understand everything else is inefficient. Inefficient doesn't reach a less ideal equilibrium, rather it is a death spiral.

Until socialists understand that basic economics, they are perpetually doomed to repeat the megadeath outcomes over and over in history.

Economics is not what you think should be. Morals and ethics have nothing to do with economics. Rather it is what is most efficient. Due Coase's Theorem (which derives from the Second Law of Thermodynamics), nature will route around an inefficiency eventually. Society can obstruct barriers and create imbalances, and the longer they do that with government (centralization), then the worse the implosion when nature goes around the cancer.

Regarding a defense of the Technological Singularity, it is off-topic here. Suffice it to say that I believe all relevant intelligent human behavior, and likewise the behavior of human organizations, can be modeled as learnable skills. My own research, following the advice of Alan Turing, is to create a computer system capable of being taught skills, and then proceed to teach it.

I refuted that logic resoundingly in my blog article which I provided a link to in my prior post. I also studied A.I.. That is where I learned about simulated annealing.

Your blog post mentions human creativity as a counterexample. An important AI skill that I worki on is the ability for the computer to write and modify computer programs. This is the sort of creativity that interests me.

I thus believe you missed my point. The salient reason is that AI can never exceed the entropy we have, which I reasoned in great detail in my blog even covering Kurzweil's rebuttals on the genome. That is fundamental. The best you could hope for is to reproduce life itself. You will not exceed life. Any machine you produce, humans can leverage it. You will not enslave the humans in unpredictability (an entropy regime) that does not already exist, as the Technological Singularity claims.

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November 14, 2013, 06:27:07 PM
 #23

This concludes my replies to all posts of this thread that I wanted to comment on.

99% of people are relatively poor - its not the purpose of Bitcoin to change that.  As long as people have excess food and good housing, there is no reason to be concerned about the fact that wealth is concentrated in 1% of the population.

Bitcoin devalues the western financial system by 1000000000x or so. That is the same as declaring war on the masses.

They have more guns than you do.

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November 14, 2013, 08:01:15 PM
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I thus assume you don't get the point. Redistributing money does not decentralize it. It is worse than flushing it down a toilet (worse because it creates the wrong incentives and behavior for the recipients). The only way that capital can be distributed productively is when people produce something for it because they then make local decisions about optimum (i.e. profitable) resource allocation. If you understand fitness and simulated annealing, then you understand everything else is inefficient. Inefficient doesn't reach a less ideal equilibrium, rather it is a death spiral.

You do have the skill to make everything sound bleak  Grin Great post, still.

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November 15, 2013, 06:25:32 AM
 #25


The Robo ATM is going to require a palm scan and a face scan with government-issued photo id.


They have a RoboCoin ATM in Vancouver and my friends and I have used it many times.  It *only* requires a palm scan and this is just for Canadian AML/KYC compliance.  You do not have to give the machine any other information.  It does not scan your licence, require your name, and you could wear a paper bag over your head and still buy coins, if you were so inclined.  In fact, I bet you could buy a cadaver's hand from a crooked mortician and use that!  Seriously, it is pretty low key and relaxed.  

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November 15, 2013, 07:18:06 AM
 #26

AnonyMInt:

  I have read everything you wrote in this thread and the other "sidetracked " one. I think that when it comes down to it you will get the opposite effect of what you are looking for. Instead of people heading your warnings it will encourage most to expand their investment into bitcoin.  You come off as VERY intelligent and someone that knows what he is talking about. Combine that with the words  bitcoins and millions and above and you got yourself a recipe for the opposite of what I think you intended.

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November 15, 2013, 07:25:28 AM
 #27

I don't know why you think my short-term goal is to cause people to invest less in Bitcoin. I have even stated the opposite in Risto's other thread. Perhaps it is because I have mentioned that I think it is very risky from a tax perspective for large wealth to invest in Bitcoin.

My long-term goal would be to fix the problems I've identified, and having more people with BTC ready to trade is an advantage.

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November 15, 2013, 07:34:21 AM
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The Robo ATM is going to require a palm scan and a face scan with government-issued photo id.


They have a RoboCoin ATM in Vancouver and my friends and I have used it many times.  It *only* requires a palm scan and this is just for Canadian AML/KYC compliance.  You do not have to give the machine any other information.  It does not scan your licence, require your name, and you could wear a paper bag over your head and still buy coins, if you were so inclined.  In fact, I bet you could buy a cadaver's hand from a crooked mortician and use that!  Seriously, it is pretty low key and relaxed.  

Are you serious?

It will not remain so casual. All small things look great, and as they become more widespread society expects certain things.

I listened to the interview with the principle of that company and he said the design requires all those 3 I mentioned to comply with KYC laws.

The operators of each machine decide, based on guidance from the company. So it is possible that operator is being more lax, but the government can clamp down at any time. The government would be wise to wait until the Robo ATMs are widespread and depended upon, before clamping down and requiring the full capabilities of the design.


If that is the case, I imagine other people who are not concerned about their privacy would be willing to use their information to buy bitcoins from the ATM and then transfer them to you for a small fee.
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November 15, 2013, 07:41:56 AM
 #29


The Robo ATM is going to require a palm scan and a face scan with government-issued photo id.


They have a RoboCoin ATM in Vancouver and my friends and I have used it many times.  It *only* requires a palm scan and this is just for Canadian AML/KYC compliance.  You do not have to give the machine any other information.  It does not scan your licence, require your name, and you could wear a paper bag over your head and still buy coins, if you were so inclined.  In fact, I bet you could buy a cadaver's hand from a crooked mortician and use that!  Seriously, it is pretty low key and relaxed.  

Are you serious?

It will not remain so casual. All small things look great, and as they become more widespread society expects certain things.

I listened to the interview with the principle of that company and he said the design requires all those 3 I mentioned to comply with KYC laws.

The operators of each machine decide, based on guidance from the company. So it is possible that operator is being more lax, but the government can clamp down at any time. The government would be wise to wait until the Robo ATMs are widespread and depended upon, before clamping down and requiring the full capabilities of the design.


If that is the case, I imagine other people who are not concerned about their privacy would be willing to use their information to buy bitcoins from the ATM and then transfer them to you for a small fee.

And due to public ledger, they can thus be compelled by the authorities to reveal the identity of every person they transfered these BTC to or otherwise face culpability for all downstream transactions for these coins.

You guys are ignoring the very serious issue of tainted coins in Bitcoin.

I have thought about this deeply and refuted core dev gmaxwell on this.

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November 15, 2013, 07:45:53 AM
 #30

I think of Hypertiger.

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November 15, 2013, 07:51:15 AM
 #31

My long-term goal would be to fix the problems I've identified, and having more people with BTC ready to trade is an advantage.

I think Bitcoin is not even close to the bleak future:

- The 20 years until mining rewards fall below gold's inflation rate is actually a very long time
- Political decision-making is very slow, and there will not be uniform 100%+ tax on bitcoins in every country ever, rather I would expect tax competition between countries and blocks, and CGT-free zones like Germany currently is
- Instawallet type services can keep almost complete anonymity, because you don't divulge personal information in any step (not exactly know about IP stuff)
- Generating altcoins is easy
- People do not want to be controlled, which severely limits the opportunities to use the control material against them (illegitimacy problem). Smart people will not want to work for oppressive govt, limiting its potential. Govt also gets only a fraction of things done per man-hour because of its design.
- USA is getting more and more isolated, it is not impossible that the outcome will be a peaceful implosion like USSR.

Others: how would you increase the number of bitcoin users in the next 18 months? I have given everyone of my friends who ask, BTC0.25 in Facebook. If you give too little, they will forget about it or not interested in receiving. If you give too much, they will feel uneasy towards you and are prone to sell it. Giving in general does not work, for the reasons AnonyMint outlined above. Only if people give real value in return, will the exchange increase general well-being by making both parties better off. (With half-forced giving, you never know if either party is better off afterwards. Same with tax, you lose definitely, but in most cases also society loses.)
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November 15, 2013, 09:15:57 AM
 #32

Others: how would you increase the number of bitcoin users in the next 18 months?

Christmas season is coming up and since I detest the ritual of going out and buying (mostly useless) stuff to show my acquaintances that I care about them on a predetermined day I am thinking about printing up some paper wallets, filling them with a modest amount of BTC and giving them out to my friends, together with instructions how to spend them, back them up and all that other stuff.

The most effective way to increase the user base imho would be to support merchant adoption in any way. Either by offering your products and services for BTC yourself - and thus blazing a trail through the local regulatory landscape and hopefully inspiring more people to do the same, when they see that it can be done. Or by asking merchants if they accept BTC and helping them set up the technology to do so.

Bitcoin thrives on the network effect, so every new user and every new "Bitcoin accepted here" create more and more new users.

Other than that, I travel a lot and create Anarchists, Bitcoiners, Couchsurfers and Discordian popes wherever I go  Grin

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November 15, 2013, 10:15:55 AM
 #33

Cheer up! Don't fall for the FUD.

Distribution is only a problem when there's a power center to maintain the severe inequalities. Saying that wealthy won't spend their hoard is silly. As Risto knows, it's no fun to be rich if you don't live it up. And in fact most wealthy bitcoiners are not preselected as being great investors or money managers, so they will likely fritter it away like most people do (see most lottery winners). And if you think pitchforks will come out, just do what other wealthy people do: become famous for your philanthropy. Or send 90% of your coins to the CoinEater address, making everyone else's more valuable.
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November 15, 2013, 11:14:29 AM
 #34

If Bitcoin takes over the world, i.e. "there can only be one due to network effects" theory (which I think is FUD), then Risto's net worth will exceed $10 billion. He can't spend that much in the remainder of his lifetime, unless he just writes huge checks for no reason whatsoever or tries to purchase an African village or something similarly bizarre. Distributing money any way other than a better designed coin will always be less efficient and less effective and more horrific.

Don't tell me you all will fund cancer research, etc.. because you don't have a clue about those industries and you will waste it just the same, probably be scammed as well. I've seen what happens to guys who centralized capital, [redacted]

I guess you missed the point that centralizing wealth destroys capital and that redistributing from centralized overgrown adolescents doesn't decentralize it again. The lost entropy is not reversible, instead the capital is destroyed and new smaller things will take their place yet all the large rotten oaks trees will die first before the benefit of the new saplings take hold. Those collapsing rotten economies tend to crush many people. You can reread my post which Risto quoted for the game theory and at least he is smart enough to recognize the game theory (i.e. logic and math) point. Of course I have empathy too, which is precisely why I don't want to destroy more capital by centralizing it for no gain. We should be using early adopters to drive the marketing to bring the masses in. Risto has been trying to bring in the little guys, but he is fighting against a coin supply curve which was designed by someone who was either ignorant or evil (and I doubt very much "Satoshi" was ignorant since he foresaw everything including that the mining would become centralized).

Now if your point is that redistributing from a larger number of adolescents than a fewer number of elite, the elite have time and time again demonstrated they are better at managing the masses, because they always win against you. And it is easy to see why, because they understand that they are going to reset everything so letting you all contribute to centralizing and destroying the remaining wealth means you really didn't deserve the talents in the first place.

Others of us will try for a real solution.

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November 15, 2013, 12:03:54 PM
 #35

I accomplished my goal which was to get readers (especially Risto since I observe him to be a capable, empathetic, level-headed leader in the community) to think more seriously about the necessity of an altcoin. It could be orders-of-magnitude more efficient and effective than giving Bitcoin away in gifts.

I accomplished my Steve Jobs "Reality Distortion Field" marketing ploy.

Now I want to share a theory I have about how brilliant Satoshi might have been.

I am imagining this guy (or group) that was tasked by the NSA to create a honeypot to trap the goldbugs and anarchistic hitech millionaires.

I cite again the self-claimed 155 - 165 IQ Eric S. Raymond, the creator of "open source":

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=3335

Quote
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Technological change has a tendency to look inevitable in retrospect – “It steam-engines when it’s steam-engine time.” Likely this is true in many cases, but I often think we underestimate the alarming degree of contingency lurking behind ‘inevitable’ developments. To illustrate this point, I’m going to sketch an all-too-plausible alternate history in which the World Wide Web never happened.

The divergence point for this history is in 1983-1984, when the leadership of DARPA lied through its teeth to Congress about who was being allowed access to the Internet. The pretense being maintained was that only direct affiliates of government-sponsored, authorized research programs were being allowed on. DARPA knew very well this wasn’t true; they had a broader vision of where the Internet might lead, one that wouldn’t be realized for another ten years. They viewed the yeasty, chaotic culture of casual use by all manner of ‘randoms’ (unauthorized people including, at the time, me) as what would later be called a technology incubator – a vast Petri dish from which amazing serendipities would spring in due time.

So in my mental sketch Satoshi designs this Bitcoin with the flaws I have outlined, knowing full well this appears to hand the world to the elite. But he could have realized that he was actually outsmarting his bosses. He probably would have faith in his "tribe" (i.e. hackers) that there were at least a few astute hackers who would see the flaws soon enough and fix them to create a competing altcoin.

Perhaps he was so clever to make the initial coin supply appeal to the hard money folks, while also pitching it to his bosses as being the perfect way to bring the dystopian outcome. Yet knowing in his heart, the hackers would rise to the challenge before the end game comes to Bitcoin by 2033 or so.

We will probably never know... yet it is a noble way to pay honor to the "person" who gave us the key technological insight and breakthrough...

...maybe anything I or others (who beat me to it) might create was what he really wanted to create but couldn't at the time...

...what sucks is we can't reuse such a good name "bitcoin" in a better altcoin...

I suggest also reading Eric Raymond's short Engineering History article.

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November 15, 2013, 02:57:59 PM
 #36

Anonymint: some people is saying that you are a paranoid, but it looks painfully obvious to me that you are quite the opposite: extremely naive (no offense intended, I enjoy your posts because they are intelligent and interesting).

You are depicting Bitcoin as the ultimate "freedom killer", which is simply ridiculous because your freedom was already killed for good a long time ago. No need to kill something that is already dead.

You are giving away your privacy evert day by using cell phones; by using the lnternet; by using the money THEY mint.

The world is already owned by the elites. The elites finance the rulers who are just proxies, the elites have total control of your bank accounts and thus they already know everything about you. They can tax you to death, they can confiscate your wealth by freezing your bank accounts and if you happen to have a bunch of cash under your mattress they can simply confiscate that wealth too by the means of inflation. Just as they have been doing for decades.

So... How is that Bitcoin is the ultimate power tool for those who already have absolute power?

I'm not saying BTC is not a trojan horse - it could be, and it would be stupid to rule that option out. But IMO your logic does not stand, financial elites rule the world de facto and there's not much more for them to gain from BTC, best case to support your theory is that they are "changing things so everything stays the same".

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November 15, 2013, 07:35:50 PM
 #37

Anonymint: some people is saying that you are a paranoid, but it looks painfully obvious to me that you are quite the opposite: extremely naive (no offense intended, I enjoy your posts because they are intelligent and interesting).

I appreciate your appreciation and respect and I accord you the same. Hey I don't actually think everyone is an idiot, I was just driving a beachhead through the groupthink so I could reach the readers' individual consciousness.

The core theory in my blog writings is the value of diversity and decentralization. So how could I then think everyone is an idiot. I value everyone when they think individually. When they think as a group, that is when they lose their effectiveness. Discussing as a group is good, thinking monolithically is not.

It can appear that someone is naive, because you don't know eveything that is their mind. And you think you have a way of viewing the situation which that "naive" person hasn't thought of.

But with high IQ individuals, there is a higher probability they have thought of what you are thinking about  (not always, I very much value input and discussion and I love absorbing information from others) so it is wise to at least ask under presumption they will be honest and credit you when they didn't realize. I try to always admit my mistakes. Etlase2 caught me in a logic error a few weeks ago and I immediately credited him in public and thanked him.


So... How is that Bitcoin is the ultimate power tool for those who already have absolute power?

1. A means to corral, identity, and destroy most of their anarchistic enemies in one honeypot.

2. A viral way to bring about a global digital currency to avoid problems with vested interests within their lower ranks (e.g. Visa, Mastercard, central banks, national governments, etc).

3. A means to worsen the coming implosion to add to the chaos, which they will offer to solve with their world government resolutions, currency resets, Brenton-Woods type of consultations and reorganizations of the financial system.

Power brokers have to do creative destruction too, to clear the path of all the friction they created. They are smart enough to realize they can't accomplish sweeping change top-down within their own rigor mortis.

Many here tend to view only the inept lower ranks and become very boastful about how decentralization destroys the lower ranks, without considering how the upper elite might be using decentralization too.

Also realize that most things in life are not black and white and thus I of course also recognize the benefits Bitcoin brings along the way of potentially the horrific end game outcome I presented. And that is why I also presented a theory in my prior post that perhaps "Satoshi" planted a "[good] Trojan inside a [bad] Trojan" (credit this quote to someone who PM'ed me before reading my prior post).

Any way, it is all conjecture and fun exercise for the mind.

Enjoy!

P.S. so now where is that overgrown adolescents party? I don't want to miss the fun Grin Too bad I stopped drinking, I had some great parties through the years. Still love socializing.

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November 16, 2013, 02:30:29 PM
 #38

l
So... How is that Bitcoin is the ultimate power tool for those who already have absolute power?

1. A means to corral, identity, and destroy most of their anarchistic enemies in one honeypot.

2. A viral way to bring about a global digital currency to avoid problems with vested interests within their lower ranks (e.g. Visa, Mastercard, central banks, national governments, etc).

3. A means to worsen the coming implosion to add to the chaos, which they will offer to solve with their world government resolutions, currency resets, Brenton-Woods type of consultations and reorganizations of the financial system.

Power brokers have to do creative destruction too, to clear the path of all the friction they created. They are smart enough to realize they can't accomplish sweeping change top-down within their own rigor mortis.

Many here tend to view only the inept lower ranks and become very boastful about how decentralization destroys the lower ranks, without considering how the upper elite might be using decentralization too.

Also realize that most things in life are not black and white and thus I of course also recognize the benefits Bitcoin brings along the way of potentially the horrific end game outcome I presented. And that is why I also presented a theory in my prior post that perhaps "Satoshi" planted a "[good] Trojan inside a [bad] Trojan" (credit this quote to someone who PM'ed me before reading my prior post).

Any way, it is all conjecture and fun exercise for the mind.

Enjoy!

P.S. so now where is that overgrown adolescents party? I don't want to miss the fun Grin Too bad I stopped drinking, I had some great parties through the years. Still love socializing.

Interesting debate. My replies to your points:

1) exactly for these kind of statements you seem naive to me. The elites don't give a shit about their "anarchistic enemies", because the elites won for good a long time ago. There is no war going on, its total domination. Their "anarchistic enemies" are not a threat for the elites, and on the contrary have a clear purpose in the system - to perpetuate the illusion of freedom of thought, and to create the false hope that "the people" has something to say. In the perfect totalitarian regime everything has a purpose, and precisely the dissidents are crucial because just by existing they are giving legitimacy to the system.

The elites need no honeypot. You are willingly wearing a "chip" (Internet) that scans your brain and transmits everything on it to those willing to listen, you are willingly wearing tracking devices (your mobile), you are willingly using their banks to pay for your bills and so on and so on. The endgame for "the people" arrived decades ago, the slaves are happy to be slaves, and for the ones who won there are no enemies left to destroy.

2) the financial elite already controls the money supply, which in a capitalistic society means ruling the world. I don't see how BTC can give the elites a better edge, unless all the early adopters are part of the old elite. In that case we could say that a few dozen persons would possess at least 30% of the total money supply, which is quite an edge. But I tend to think that for the elites is crucial to manipulate money supply, which in BTC is not possible by design.

3) Governments are just a tool for the elites, and the only goal of the elites is to amass more capital - that's capitalism. Money = power. The wealthier, rules. Governments are just proxies, the wealthier already rule, no need for a Trojan horse.

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November 17, 2013, 12:17:25 AM
 #39

Extreme Conjecture:

1) The elite are conscious of the threat of being one decentralized paradigm-shift away from losing control. Let's hope I will prove to be prophetic "before Christmas".

True anarchists don't waste their time talking, they implement and disrupt, so we (few lurking amongst you all) serve no such useful PR purpose for them.

The internet listening device lacked a tracking of all money trails. Bitcoin provides it.

2) They control a money supply they can't efficiently track the interlinking trail to the personal id level. Too many financial instutions, accounting ledgers, etc.. This AML, KYC stuff is just a stopgap measure to leverage up the single public blockchain economy-of-scale. Remember large wealth needs economy-of-scale. Small shit is a waste of time for large wealth.

3) Agreed and that was integrated into my point. Don't know why you didn't think so.



Fact:

I am becoming technically convinced that Bitcoin is broken and will devolve into chaos (probably not tomorrow though):

http://hackingdistributed.com/2013/11/08/fairweather-mining/#comment-1126388907

Also the media is picking up on Bitcoin's dystopian future and why it can never be a currency:

http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/11/bitcoin-news/

Quote
the US has a fairly low savings rate compared with the rest of the world. Americans save between 11-12% of GDP per year. If we were to apply this savings rate to Bitcoin, already knowing the future path of the Bitcoin money supply, a problem starts to emerge–were 11.5% of Bitcoins saved per year, by 2021, 95.3% of the entire supply of the currency will have been stashed away as savings rendering commerce effectively impossible. A system of credit can be built on top of the Bitcoin economy (and most likely will be built), but while this can push back the date at which savings account for too large a share of the entire economy, it can only delay the inevitable. At some point, Bitcoins saved will start to approach total Bitcoins in circulation, making commerce effectively impossible.

Mildy Extreme Conjecture:

Sorry but the more I contemplate this, I think Bitcoin is doomed. Now could possibly be the blowoff peak for Bitcoin price.

Although I think it is much more likely 1 - 3 years from now due to inertia on all factors. Much can come to light in that intervening time. If the core Bitcoin devs surprise me and fix Bitcoin, then my outlook would change. But they can't change the long-term supply curve, although that particular problem is decades away as Risto pointed out.

The elite will likely abandon their Trojan if it is proven to be technically broken. Surely they have competing strategies in play.

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November 17, 2013, 05:31:28 AM
 #40


I am having second thoughts about investing even $20,000 in Bitcoin. I am becoming technically convinced that Bitcoin is broken and will devolve into chaos (probably not tomorrow though):

_________________________________________________________

Sorry but the more I contemplate this, I think Bitcoin is doomed. Now could possibly be the blowoff peak for Bitcoin price.


Wow, that was one of the fastest switcharoos I've seen in a long time. Just 24 hours ago bitcoin was going to hit a million bucks (but the owners could possibly be damned) , now bitcoin is doomed.  Actually bitcoin owners are doomed in both your scenarios.

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November 17, 2013, 09:47:43 AM
 #41

The realization that it is impossible for Bitcoin to become a currency has sunk in. The coin supply curve can not be overcome no matter how many BTC gifts you personally send this Xmas. Even if the market cap reaches $4 trillion, the currency float will only be in the range of $200 billion (at 5% of coins). That is third-world country size, yet spread out globally without the economy-of-scale of proximity.

Right now Bitcoin acts as a store of value more than a medium of exchange and it's not necessary for Bitcoin to ever be a medium of exchange to reach much higher valuations. Gold is a good example which has a very high valuation despite not being used a medium exchange since the gold standard.

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November 17, 2013, 10:15:31 AM
 #42


Right now Bitcoin acts as a store of value more than a medium of exchange and it's not necessary for Bitcoin to ever be a medium of exchange to reach much higher valuations. Gold is a good example which has a very high valuation despite not being used a medium exchange since the gold standard.

Not so sure about that. Store of value is based on trust and "intrinsic" value . Gold is used as store of value but also in industry + it has historical "trust".  Bitcoin as a store of value only doesn't seem possible in the long term.

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Martin Armstrong
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November 17, 2013, 10:44:20 AM
 #43

Quote
the US has a fairly low savings rate compared with the rest of the world. Americans save between 11-12% of GDP per year. If we were to apply this savings rate to Bitcoin, already knowing the future path of the Bitcoin money supply, a problem starts to emerge–were 11.5% of Bitcoins saved per year, by 2021, 95.3% of the entire supply of the currency will have been stashed away as savings rendering commerce effectively impossible. A system of credit can be built on top of the Bitcoin economy (and most likely will be built), but while this can push back the date at which savings account for too large a share of the entire economy, it can only delay the inevitable. At some point, Bitcoins saved will start to approach total Bitcoins in circulation, making commerce effectively impossible.

The above shows absolutely no understanding of self-adjusting mechanisms (like markets).

I appreciate your point concerning the blow-off top which comes in 18-36 months, and that the current structures (continuous harassment by banks, capital gains tax, flybynight exchanges, fear to disclose holdings) do not support the distribution of coins from big stashes to small. Therefore both the majority will be trapped with no opportunity to buy coins (statistical majority - each individual can buy as much as he wants), and the minority will have a difficulty in diversifying/unloading.

If for example I smell the top when USD/BTC is $194,538 and want to sell a paltry BTC3,582.64 for $696,900,000, there are many kind of hassles. I would not regard it as realistic for any large holder to sell near the top unless they are willing to take the risk and employ leverage in conjunction with actual selling of bitcoins.
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November 17, 2013, 11:47:19 AM
 #44

Quote
the US has a fairly low savings rate compared with the rest of the world. Americans save between 11-12% of GDP per year. If we were to apply this savings rate to Bitcoin, already knowing the future path of the Bitcoin money supply, a problem starts to emerge–were 11.5% of Bitcoins saved per year, by 2021, 95.3% of the entire supply of the currency will have been stashed away as savings rendering commerce effectively impossible. A system of credit can be built on top of the Bitcoin economy (and most likely will be built), but while this can push back the date at which savings account for too large a share of the entire economy, it can only delay the inevitable. At some point, Bitcoins saved will start to approach total Bitcoins in circulation, making commerce effectively impossible.

The above shows absolutely no understanding of self-adjusting mechanisms (like markets).

Yes of course eventually savers need to invest outside of Bitcoin-the-asset so the coins must circulate.

But the key point which you may be missing is that the coins don't necessary have to circulate to the masses. In fact, they only circulate to the masses if Bitcoin is the currency used by the masses.

It is a chicken-and-egg problem. That is why the above quote does indeed show a very astute understanding.

You see if I invest my BTC in a business, I can't pay my employees in BTC unless BTC is already being used by them.

This is why widespread distribution is critical.

Risto you are not going to fix this without my altcoin. You will just have to accept that I am going to be richer than you Wink

(this is inside joke because he knows and I know we are both more concerned about the right outcome than our personal wealth)

I appreciate your point concerning the blow-off top which comes in 18-36 months, and that the current structures (continuous harassment by banks, capital gains tax, flybynight exchanges, fear to disclose holdings) do not support the distribution of coins from big stashes to small. Therefore both the majority will be trapped with no opportunity to buy coins (statistical majority - each individual can buy as much as he wants), and the minority will have a difficulty in diversifying/unloading.

If you can sell the majority long calls as they are rushing in at the blowoff top, then the minority can exit selling puts.

If for example I smell the top when USD/BTC is $194.538 and want to sell a paltry BTC3,582.64 for $696,900,000, there are many kind of hassles.

My take on that is more conspiratorial. I think you would need permission from the "controllers" who will put up the options markets. In other words, I think you will need to sell your soul to the elite. Thats another reason why I've been concerned about what you are doing here. But maybe I am batshit crazy on this one.

I would not regard it as realistic for any large holder to sell near the top unless they are willing to take the risk and employ leverage in conjunction with actual selling of bitcoins.

Agreed.

I am hoping you can trade your BTC for an altcoin that has the correct long-term properties.

Hey at least I spiced your diary for this week  Embarrassed

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November 17, 2013, 01:43:36 PM
 #45

And now for something simple buying and selling advice:


We are already 50% over the monthly-average exponential trendline, so a retracement is possible any time.


wow, you bearish?

 Cheesy

The definition of trendline is that (about) half of the time price is over the trend, and half of the time it is under the trend.

It is therefore smart to buy when price is below trendline, and sell if it goes too high above it.

I do not easily recommend selling for trading purposes, because buy&hold works better.

But if you have been in it for a long time and want to sell periodically, we have just entered the period where it makes sense to sell.

ADD:
[Re: trading based on trendline] With this methodology it is easy, because the datapoints are monthly weighted averages and new points are added only once per month. December target based on Jan2009-Oct2013 is $404.

I do not suggest anyone to buy above $700 this year, it is likely a bubble and you can likely buy cheaper next year if you just wait. Furthermore, I have pounded the table extremely hard from about $195 (the only time I pounded so hard before was February), and everyone wanting to enter in based on my advice should have done it by now.

But do not speculate - unless you intend to permanently start lowering the number of your bitcoins, do not sell.
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November 17, 2013, 03:55:39 PM
 #46

Excellent synthesis on the actual mechanisms of control.

I've long held the opinion that the most important thing about todays system of schooling is not the content of the curriculum, but the structure of the whole activity in schools. Sort of like Marshall McLuhans "the Media is the Message" - it doesn't matter what is ON TV, what matters is that TV, as a medium influences thought and action in a certain way, regardless of what content is shown.

So what do our schools teach us? The first thing they teach you is that you are not the sovereign master of your time. They teach you that all your life, there will be predetermined periods of time, during which you have to be at a certain location, doing specific things. After that you will generously get some "free time".

Next thing you learn is that there is exactly one correct answer for everything and don't bother trying to come up with it yourself, we already have, so just memorize it.

And do NOT question authority. Mistakes are wrong, be afraid of mistakes, you will be punished for them.

All in all these places stifle creative thinking and personal development, reinforce conformity and submissiveness to authority. In other words they achieve their goal splendidly. What goal? George Carlin pointed it out years ago: the point of schools is to create obedient workers. Just smart enough to run the machines and do the paperwork and just dumb enough to passively accept all the rigged bullshit of this system.

Well put!

IMHO the issue with the current system is across the board our "thought leaders" (i.e. those in positions to advise and create/influence policy) are universally those who bought into the conformity of thinking you described so well. Just look at the path one HAS to go through to become a FED chairman. It requires going to a top economics program, accepting the concensus line of thinking as fact, and becoming highly regarded in that field by publishing papers that most other experts agree with.

By definition, those who go outside the norm are not seen positively and do not advance in the field. Engineering/science fields are at least grounded in a physcial world, it is possible to later prove who is right, but economics & public policy have no such feedback mechanism and as a result can go down false paths for generations. Worse is these fields are coruptable due to their proximity to money/power politics.
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November 17, 2013, 06:47:21 PM
 #47

But do not speculate - unless you intend to permanently start lowering the number of your bitcoins, do not sell.

Excellent advice that I tend to follow from day 1 - I would add that the only purpose of daytrading should be to increase one's stash of coins, making a USD profit is trivial and pointless when dealing with an asset that appreciates so much against the USD as is BTC.

I do trade during a very specific time - bear markets that follow bubble pops, as it happened in 2011 or April, 10th this year. Catching the very top and the very bottom is just a matter of sheer luck, but on the contrary is pretty easy to spot a bubble pop and the subsequent bear market that usually follows. In a bear market the confidence of the weaker hands is seriously hit, and one can do some effective analysis and assume that the price will decline at least for a few months (as it happened from April 10th to October 15th aprox.)

I do think that mid term the bear markets will be shorter and the price decline less steep - in the first bear market in 2011 BTC lost 94% of its value (from $32 to $2), in the second bear market only 75% (from $266 to $50, and the very bottom was visited very quick just after the pop), I believe that unless something disruptive happens bear markets will be less and less relevant in the mid term because every subsequent "pop" will be seen by more and more capital just as an opportunity to buy and not a potentially catastrophic event that could lead the price to 0.

I think its also a good advice to take some profits when you have been in for long and the price has been going parabolic too quick, or has been above the trendline for too long - for example, if you already have a x100 unrealized profit I'd recommend to sell 20% of your coins and thus recoup your fiat investment in full while cashing in a nice profit, I think that helps most people to be more rational and thus to have stronger hands.

My friendly advice to AnonyMint: distopian future or not; world reserve currency or just "the mother of all bubbles"; disruptive community effort or trojan horse, I'd say that you just cannot afford to lose the opportunity of being into BITCOIN. Just throw at BTC the money you can comfortably afford to lose, historically it never let down those that took that choice. Do not be fooled by your greed that will tell you "x10 of a little is still a little", because if BTC realizes its potential the exchange rate will grow by many orders of magnitude - quickly.




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November 17, 2013, 11:53:28 PM
 #48

I remember my high school Trigonometry teacher who marked me down from a perfect test score because I didn't draw a box around the solutions at the end of each derivation. She was really protesting that I almost never came to class and could so effortlessly ace the tests without being controlled. (I almost never attended class at the university level and achieved a 4.0 GPA)

I really hated sitting in class it was slow, boring, and couldn't go off on the creative tangents that were potentially interesting. I was often staring out the window, dreaming of doing some sports or calculating something in my head.

I went to the principle and demanded my grade be restored to 100%, else I would quit the Track & Field team. I appealed to how the low grade would impact my ability to be accepted into a top university. Since I was the top 800meter and miler for our high school (4:25 on the mile), and since I was liked so much by the principle, I won.

That was my first conscious lesson on two things:

1. I am my own master when I leverage my brain.

2. I win politics by making people dependent on me and be sure the important people like me. Appealing to directly to the majority based on personality and individual judgments (e.g. via speech) is a can-of-worms and inefficient. Appealing to the majority via protocol, algorithm, or strategy is very efficient.

It seems lately I have allowed myself to fail a lot, particularly by involving myself with too many people who can't keep up. Where I succeeded greatly is where I burned my own path at my speed.

But I really like interacting with people of different stripes. Yet it can be frustrating.

Excellent synthesis on the actual mechanisms of control.

I've long held the opinion that the most important thing about todays system of schooling is not the content of the curriculum, but the structure of the whole activity in schools. Sort of like Marshall McLuhans "the Media is the Message" - it doesn't matter what is ON TV, what matters is that TV, as a medium influences thought and action in a certain way, regardless of what content is shown.

So what do our schools teach us? The first thing they teach you is that you are not the sovereign master of your time. They teach you that all your life, there will be predetermined periods of time, during which you have to be at a certain location, doing specific things. After that you will generously get some "free time".

Next thing you learn is that there is exactly one correct answer for everything and don't bother trying to come up with it yourself, we already have, so just memorize it.

And do NOT question authority. Mistakes are wrong, be afraid of mistakes, you will be punished for them.

All in all these places stifle creative thinking and personal development, reinforce conformity and submissiveness to authority. In other words they achieve their goal splendidly. What goal? George Carlin pointed it out years ago: the point of schools is to create obedient workers. Just smart enough to run the machines and do the paperwork and just dumb enough to passively accept all the rigged bullshit of this system.

Well put!

IMHO the issue with the current system is across the board our "thought leaders" (i.e. those in positions to advise and create/influence policy) are universally those who bought into the conformity of thinking you described so well. Just look at the path one HAS to go through to become a FED chairman. It requires going to a top economics program, accepting the concensus line of thinking as fact, and becoming highly regarded in that field by publishing papers that most other experts agree with.

By definition, those who go outside the norm are not seen positively and do not advance in the field. Engineering/science fields are at least grounded in a physcial world, it is possible to later prove who is right, but economics & public policy have no such feedback mechanism and as a result can go down false paths for generations. Worse is these fields are coruptable due to their proximity to money/power politics.

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November 18, 2013, 12:23:46 AM
 #49

But do not speculate - unless you intend to permanently start lowering the number of your bitcoins, do not sell.

I think its also a good advice to take some profits when you have been in for long and the price has been going parabolic too quick, or has been above the trendline for too long - for example, if you already have a x100 unrealized profit I'd recommend to sell 20% of your coins and thus recoup your fiat investment in full while cashing in a nice profit, I think that helps most people to be more rational and thus to have stronger hands.

Mathematically if you don't know how many months it will stay above trend, then you can't know when you sell whether you will be able to buy back in for a lower price.

When to buy has the same problem. There is only one exception I can think of. If you just obtained the money or ability to buy and you notice the price is below trend, then you are lucky and should buy immediately.

The only mathematical reason to sell is when you are ready to exit. And for larger holders, that should be sufficiently long duration before the expected final peak price and market cap saturation.

My friendly advice to AnonyMint: distopian future or not; world reserve currency or just "the mother of all bubbles"; disruptive community effort or trojan horse, I'd say that you just cannot afford to lose the opportunity of being into BITCOIN.

There are some factors that I can afford to lose.

1. Losing all my money because I lose the keys or they are hacked. Considering how busy I am, and health issues, etc.. I have to make choices about where to put my limited time. I lost $75,000 in 2012 because I was out-of-mind I was so near death.

2. Losing a lot of the money because of getting caught in a pincher again where I can't execute a sale for various reasons as I explained above. I am not sitting in a first world country with all status all perfectly in compliance as you all  may be. I have an ex to deal with too, which complicates, etc..

3. The times where I made big money is where I did not spend any time on money, and all my time programming. I believe this will be the case again. I might forsake a 10X gain only before I will turn some code into a $1 billion in 2014. As if I really need that much, I wouldn't even know what to spend it on.

4. What I need most is about $2-3 million and anonymity so I can live my life in peace. I don't need more potential points of failure in my life right now, I have too many issues that can go awry already. K.I.S.S.

5. I have seen in my life I was forced to sell short-term by factors. Selling short-term into a correction is painful.

From your perspective yes, because that is the only opportunity you have. I am special. Sorry to say. This has presented me a huge opportunity just fell into my lap.

Nevertheless if I have not succeeded by Jan 1, I might buy some Bitcoin, perhaps up to $40,000 or so. Especially it might be below the trendline by then or Feb. which would reduce short-term risk of a holding.

Just throw at BTC the money you can comfortably afford to lose, historically it never let down those that took that choice. Do not be fooled by your greed that will tell you "x10 of a little is still a little", because if BTC realizes its potential the exchange rate will grow by many orders of magnitude - quickly.

It is not greed of 10X of a little. Rather the issues above.

Thanks for your concern.

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November 18, 2013, 12:25:16 AM
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excellent advice

Excellent advice that I tend to follow

What was the thing that we used to disagree upon?  Cheesy

$300k by this year + singularity

Wink

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November 18, 2013, 12:44:12 AM
 #51

excellent advice

Excellent advice that I tend to follow

What was the thing that we used to disagree upon?  Cheesy

$300k by this year + singularity

Wink

Let me guess that rpietila argued against the Bitcoin singularity?

No, he said that we would have definitely seen $300k per BTC by this year (2013), and that denying this was just a "denial of the facts". And he proved it by the kind of maths that show you that the Bitcoin singularity is coming super short term.

My opinion about that was that it ($300k per USD this year) would have NEVER happened firstly and foremost just because the Bitcoin infrastructure (the exchanges, the blockchain itself) is not ready to support that kind of flash-growth (this seems painfully obvious to me), secondly because other circumstances (among which human psychology) make that kind of parabolic growth unsustainable. IMO what we are seeing is almost the optimum "cruise speed" we can reach.

That said, I have to say that I'm enjoying a lot his latest posts and he looks to me much more reasonable Wink

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November 18, 2013, 12:47:03 AM
 #52

Risto (et al), I don't know where you finally settled on in your philosophy about precious metals (ya'll know Risto was/is a precious metals dealer), so I wanted to share the math of where my logic ended up. Seems to have silenced the goldbugs in that thread.

Also hope you saw the goods news that China is accelerating free market reforms, so this bodes very well for the future. China will still need to undergo an adjustment (possibly acute and painful along with global contagion), from a debt-laden fixed capital infrastructure and exports economy to a consumer economy that doesn't repress household share of GDP via several mechanism that Pettis outlined. The above linked reforms are the prescription Pettis has pushed for. Implementation must follow though.

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November 18, 2013, 02:28:19 AM
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I remember my high school Trigonometry teacher who marked me down from a perfect test score because I didn't draw a box around the solutions at the end of each derivation. She was really protesting that I almost never came to class and could so effortlessly ace the tests without being controlled. (I almost never attended class at the university level and achieved a 4.0 GPA)

Or protesting the fact that you were wasting her time because if there's a box around the answer it takes just a second to grade a 100% paper.

Btw, we were supposed to show our work, and not just the final solution. Yes maybe that would accelerate grading of the very rare case of 100% correct. Not a very compelling argument.

But you would be remiss not to notice that I did not enter that contract on my own free will, thus the terms were not mutually agreed. The system is trying to force down my throat how I should set my priorities.

I think that is a very interesting rebuttal because it illuminates the difference between a socialist (big government) and a minanarchist (small government).

In case that link above doesn't make this clear, socialists want to fix Syria but can't even fix Detroit, because they don't understand relative value. So they think every requirement makes sense, because it is all fair.

Because they fundamentally don't understand that potential energy = degrees-of-freedom.

So yeah I guess I am being arrogant again. How else could I rationally respond?

I went to the principle and demanded my grade be restored to 100%, else I would quit the Track & Field team. I appealed to how the low grade would impact my ability to be accepted into a top university. Since I was the top 800meter and miler for our high school (4:25 on the mile), and since I was liked so much by the principle, I won.

Without questioning your awesomely self described awesome intelligence but "principle" is different than "principal".

Does that make you feel better? But this chest thumping doesn't help you because your inability to generate a model sticks out like a blackeye above, or was that just error due to haste?

It seems lately I have allowed myself to fail a lot, particularly by involving myself with too many people who can't keep up. Where I succeeded greatly is where I burned my own path at my speed.

But I really like interacting with people of different stripes. Yet it can be frustrating.

Surely that must be a total torture yoking yourself to plebs of small brain, I commiserate.  Surely the fault is entirely theirs.  Roll Eyes

Good point except I can't choose who replies, when I am attempting to talk seriously with the technologically astute.

But 3 serious comments:

1. Recommend you don't blame an elite conspiracy for that which can be explained by simple social/organization stupidity.

9/11 could not have been unorganized, nor performed by a few guys on camels as presented. And anyone who has studied deeply and objectively as those 1000s of architects and engineers did understands it is not what it was presented to be.

Who can deny a master plan to enact the Patriot Act and down the AML, KYC hole we are in now.

2. Learn to see yourself as others do.

I am not a socialist, so I will not bend the important work to be fair to the unimportant nonsense. I know their opinion of me (and it is not all the same).

3. Don't hijack Risto's public diary -- make your own (you have some interesting things to say).

I was responding with a personal story to a discussion that Risto et al started about the mode of control starting with primary education.

What you are really saying is that you want social control/conformance. Typical socialist you are. You are under their mode of control. You are even parroting it.

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November 18, 2013, 07:01:18 AM
 #54

No, he said that we would have definitely seen $300k per BTC by this year (2013), and that denying this was just a "denial of the facts". And he proved it by the kind of maths that show you that the Bitcoin singularity is coming super short term.

My opinion about that was that it ($300k per USD this year) would have NEVER happened firstly and foremost just because the Bitcoin infrastructure (the exchanges, the blockchain itself) is not ready to support that kind of flash-growth (this seems painfully obvious to me), secondly because other circumstances (among which human psychology) make that kind of parabolic growth unsustainable. IMO what we are seeing is almost the optimum "cruise speed" we can reach.

That said, I have to say that I'm enjoying a lot his latest posts and he looks to me much more reasonable Wink

Rampion was correct that $300k did not happen this year. The psychological mechanisms that I outlined are however still there, it just did not trigger yet. I currently consider that 2015-2016 is the time when we cross $300k on our way up. Of course parabolic growth is unsustainable I never said that it would be a smooth ride or that it would not end in a spectacular bubble before finding the stable valuation which takes years.

Maybe my greatest contribution was to actually make the $300k figure mainstream. I remember it was met with suspicion and ridicule back in late April, when I introduced it. Now it seems that everybody is content with the idea.

I disagree on the technology side. It would help tremendously to have Bitcoin ATM's in every corner, and a way for the early adopters to repatriate their gains effortlessly. But the price rise can happen regardless of that, and the ill-functioning infra just steepens the rise, because by restricting the fiat flows it squeezes the exchange rate up quicker than what would happen in perfect market circumstances.
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November 18, 2013, 01:04:59 PM
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Right now Bitcoin acts as a store of value more than a medium of exchange and it's not necessary for Bitcoin to ever be a medium of exchange to reach much higher valuations. Gold is a good example which has a very high valuation despite not being used a medium exchange since the gold standard.

Not so sure about that. Store of value is based on trust and "intrinsic" value . Gold is used as store of value but also in industry + it has historical "trust".  Bitcoin as a store of value only doesn't seem possible in the long term.

Follow this logic a ways: The intrinsic* value is based - at the very bottom - on the nascent present uses as a currency and remittance system, and more so on its future uses in such capacities. That value, largely based on future promise though it may be, provided the initial bedrock for the store-of-value functionality. And since Bitcoin has absolutely revolutionary features when used as a store of value, even a little adoption of Bitcoin as a store of value is a virtuous cycle. People believe in its future for various uses, including store of value but a whole lot more, and so they don't sell much. It becomes more and more an excellent store of value, now outlandishly excellent, preposterously amazing, utterly world-beating in this regard going up 10 million percent in four years. Teleportable, deniable, non-confiscatable if done right, and 10M% gain in four years. It's impossible not to call this the greatest intergalactic homerun of all time in the store-of-value department, so far at least.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1mb27q/bitcoins_vast_overvaluation_appears_caused_by/cc7i6y8

Bitcoin is simply a universal ledger. You want to secure your place on that universal ledger, because the planet is moving toward adopting this universal ledger idea, as it is vastly superior to any alternative. The only thing that was needed was the initial motivation to use this ledger. Once some people use it, they create the incentive for more to want to use it, and so on. There's no limit until it takes over the earth or gets replaced by something else.

People will back at how we used to trade industrial and decorative metals around to communicate value and laugh at how primitive it was.

"How would you get those metals to your friend on the other side of the world?"

"Well you could fly them there, but that was really hard, or you could trust a chain of companies in different jurisdictions to take your metals and make sure someone over there gave the same amount to your friend, all the intermediaries taking a cut of course. Alternatively, you could use paper certificates printed by governments that promised they wouldn't print too many, but always broke those promises eventually."

"What the heck?! You had the Internet. Why didn't you just have a universal ledger?"

*improper term: use "non-monetary value" or "non-exchange value," because nothing has intrinsic value, technically (valuation is always a subjective judgment)
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November 18, 2013, 01:23:42 PM
 #56

3. Don't hijack Risto's public diary -- make your own (you have some interesting things to say).

I was responding with a personal story to a discussion that Risto et al started about the mode of control starting with primary education.

What you are really saying is that you want social control/conformance. Typical socialist you are. You are under their mode of control. You are even parroting it.

You've lost your individuality and your manhood.

2. The composite of qualities, such as courage, determination, and vigor, often thought to be appropriate to a man.

I fully support the idea of AnonyMint having threads of his own, but it seems to suit him better to dwell in frameworks created by others. I would never have bought Jason's monthly report if there was no forum, and the forum was not dominated by Jason but by AnonyMint. His way of writing is very provocative and would probably not attract enough target audience without this hijacking trait. I can and will make new threads when the old ones get too infested with extreme personalities Wink

EDIT: Personal attacks should be kept at the minimum necessary, OK?
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November 18, 2013, 03:06:55 PM
 #57


Bitcoin is simply a universal ledger. You want to secure your place on that universal ledger, because the planet is moving toward adopting this universal ledger idea, as it is vastly superior to any alternative. The only thing that was needed was the initial motivation to use this ledger. Once some people use it, they create the incentive for more to want to use it, and so on. There's no limit until it takes over the earth or gets replaced by something else.

People will back at how we used to trade industrial and decorative metals around to communicate value and laugh at how primitive it was.

"How would you get those metals to your friend on the other side of the world?"

"Well you could fly them there, but that was really hard, or you could trust a chain of companies in different jurisdictions to take your metals and make sure someone over there gave the same amount to your friend, all the intermediaries taking a cut of course. Alternatively, you could use paper certificates printed by governments that promised they wouldn't print too many, but always broke those promises eventually."

"What the heck?! You had the Internet. Why didn't you just have a universal ledger?"



Great post overall. An excellent, concise and flamboyant summary.
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November 18, 2013, 05:00:01 PM
 #58


Right now Bitcoin acts as a store of value more than a medium of exchange and it's not necessary for Bitcoin to ever be a medium of exchange to reach much higher valuations. Gold is a good example which has a very high valuation despite not being used a medium exchange since the gold standard.

Not so sure about that. Store of value is based on trust and "intrinsic" value . Gold is used as store of value but also in industry + it has historical "trust".  Bitcoin as a store of value only doesn't seem possible in the long term.

Follow this logic a ways: The intrinsic* value is based - at the very bottom - on the nascent present uses as a currency and remittance system, and more so on its future uses in such capacities. That value, largely based on future promise though it may be, provided the initial bedrock for the store-of-value functionality. And since Bitcoin has absolutely revolutionary features when used as a store of value, even a little adoption of Bitcoin as a store of value is a virtuous cycle. People believe in its future for various uses, including store of value but a whole lot more, and so they don't sell much. It becomes more and more an excellent store of value, now outlandishly excellent, preposterously amazing, utterly world-beating in this regard going up 10 million percent in four years. Teleportable, deniable, non-confiscatable if done right, and 10M% gain in four years. It's impossible not to call this the greatest intergalactic homerun of all time in the store-of-value department, so far at least.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1mb27q/bitcoins_vast_overvaluation_appears_caused_by/cc7i6y8

Bitcoin is simply a universal ledger. You want to secure your place on that universal ledger, because the planet is moving toward adopting this universal ledger idea, as it is vastly superior to any alternative. The only thing that was needed was the initial motivation to use this ledger. Once some people use it, they create the incentive for more to want to use it, and so on. There's no limit until it takes over the earth or gets replaced by something else.

People will back at how we used to trade industrial and decorative metals around to communicate value and laugh at how primitive it was.

"How would you get those metals to your friend on the other side of the world?"

"Well you could fly them there, but that was really hard, or you could trust a chain of companies in different jurisdictions to take your metals and make sure someone over there gave the same amount to your friend, all the intermediaries taking a cut of course. Alternatively, you could use paper certificates printed by governments that promised they wouldn't print too many, but always broke those promises eventually."

"What the heck?! You had the Internet. Why didn't you just have a universal ledger?"

*improper term: use "non-monetary value" or "non-exchange value," because nothing has intrinsic value, technically (valuation is always a subjective judgment)

I am sorry but as eloquently written as that is, I think it is mostly wrong on the facts.

The single most important use of Bitcoin right now is as a ponzi scheme. You can not deny that the vast majority of people holding Bitcoin are doing so because they expect the exponential appreciation in price. And you can not argue that the appreciation is caused by other people buying later who have the same expectation. And the fact that most hold, thus the float is tiny. I read there were only 5,400 bitcoins standing in the way of $500 when we were at $450. That tiny float is critical. If ever the psychology adjusts where a smaller percentage don't want to hold on tight like a miser counting his future greed, then Bitcoin is toast. A ponzi scheme is precisely where the valuation is based on nothing but the ability of the later investors to support the gains of the prior ones. It differs from an investment that has revenue or otherwise can support the payout of the early investors without depending on an expansion of later investors. Bitcoin absolutely can not do that. It is absolutely dependent on the tiny float and the later investors continuing to pour in.

So to contrast this with the exponential runup in price of say Cisco or Microsoft stock into the dot.com bubble, and then collapse to a stable price level hence, what is remaining in Bitcoin after the speculative bubble pops?

So let's review the facts of the other points of your comment in that regard.

1. We can transfer small or large value decentralized. However, we can do nothing with that transfer until we cash out in fiat, because Bitcoin itself is not a currency. Thus this claimed feature advantage really doesn't exist. Maybe for the moment, we can sidestep AML and KYC laws in some jurisdictions with Bitcoin, but FATCA is coming and all banks in the world are subservient to their masters in the USA. This is because the dollar is the reserve currency and thus every other currency and fiat financial system in the world is more influenced by ingress and egress of dollars than any other factor. The US Congressional inquiry starts this Nov. 18. Compliance for Bitcoin will increase, not decrease.

2. We have a universal ledger which destroys our privacy and gives the NSA and other rogue government functionaries the ability to track everything we do everywhere, unlike with fiat cash and bank accounts in foreign jurisdictions we used to have some privacy.

Did I miss anything? The nascent uses of Bitcoin as a currency are occasionally useful, but irrelevant because I can't use them to do anything with large size of store-of-value. And large size of store-of-value is the predominant use of Bitcoin.

It can't change. It is not like all of sudden those who are expecting exponential gains will decide they want to use Bitcoin as a steady savings account. If Bitcoin stops appreciating, then they won't be asking for merchants to add Bitcoin so they can slowly spend their Bitcoins. They will exit and try to find a new investment. And one day we will hear this giant sucking sound and this 21st century tulip mania will be completed.

Obviously the ideas in Bitcoin are revolutionary. But the execution is horrible. That is why I am thinking Satoshi put a good Trojan inside of an evil one. And I am trying to prove it in reality (very soon).

Clear thinking is very important to success. I intend to make it my hallmark.

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November 18, 2013, 05:13:11 PM
 #59

Let me assume the Bitcoin singularity is some concept that assumes some critical mass will be reached where the remaining portion of the population must rush to obtain Bitcoin.

This can't happen because Bitcoin is not a widespread currency, thus the only significant utility of Bitcoin is a ponzi bubble.

Rather what will happen is that Bitcoin will reach market saturation and the exponential growth will be lost. Then it will collapse to near 0 in an accelerating stampede exodus. I don't think this can happen for a year or more yet. We could see another significant correction and then another runup before seeing the final end. Bitcoin is probably far from market saturation, and it also depends on competition if any because mass-mania psychology (driving the tiny float) is the main factor of Bitcoin's valuation.

Bitcoin is the typical greed emotion overtaking logic phenomenon. If you fall too deep into this Risto, you will end up similar to what happend to Jason Hommel and his fall from $15 million valuation in speculative bubble stocks with tiny floats. I will send you a PM on this. You SHOULD read it.

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November 18, 2013, 06:23:05 PM
 #60


This can't happen because Bitcoin is not a widespread currency, thus the only significant utility of Bitcoin is a ponzi bubble.


Your line of reasoning is only really compelling when you ignore what is happening in china.
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November 18, 2013, 06:44:41 PM
 #61

Again. I see your point.  But governments cannot control bit coin.  At least not yet.  They would have to own most of it which will likely never happen.

State backed digital money might be something to be frightened of. But bitcoin's design will frighten states.  It could be bad for the usd, but bitcoin isn't to blame for our demise there.

As to china... Ignore the hysterical headline and 51% stuff, but this article will show how bit coin is growing up into something bigger than a 'ponzi bubble'.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/11/18/investing/bitcoin-china/
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November 19, 2013, 11:14:54 AM
 #62


I am sorry but as eloquently written as that is, I think it is mostly wrong on the facts.

....Bitcoin right now is as a ponzi scheme....

You can not deny that the vast majority of people holding Bitcoin are doing so because they expect the exponential appreciation in price...

Sorry but I find it difficult to take your points seriously when you start by criticising another on facts then making spurious claims.

You keep referring to Bitcoin as a ponzi scheme.  I understand why people may say tulip bulbs but a ponzi scheme is something else.  This is simply incorrect.

What is your evidence that people's primary incentive for holding bitcoin is exponential growth?  I would like to see your sources.  We can to a large extent determine people's behaviour with bitcoin because the evidence is in the block chain.  But the 'why' is not written in the block chain.  Your deductions from people's behaviour as to their motives may well be 100% correct but you're doing yourself no favours by claiming your deductions as fact.

When I first bought bitcoins I was enthused by its potential.  The decentralised potential to by-pass the banking system for remittences and, as was discussed in the hearing last night, the potential for the world's unbanked (I have to admit I had not even considered you have a considerable number of US unbanked too).  I said to myself I don't care if the value of what I hold goes to a fraction of what I paid for it if it serves this purpose.  I just want to be involved.  As it happens, people 'getting involved' means the price goes in my favour but to me it is secondary.  Tell me, how, looking at my transactions on the block chain would you tell that I am not holding coins primarily to sell them to someone else for more?  And if you can't tell mine, how can you be sure you know others' motives?

Just a question Smiley

Please disregard Litecoin and Zcash badges to the left. I have just gathered they are an April fool's joke!
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November 19, 2013, 10:04:58 PM
 #63

Thank you. I am sure that no one can rationally argue with you, so please make the altcoin before we are all doomed.
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November 20, 2013, 03:28:09 AM
 #64

Anonymint, you are clearly very intelligent and your theories are certainly plausible, but I find the absolute certainty of your claims to be disconcerting. Could you at least acknowledge the possibility that you are wrong. Also, I am not aware of any other geniuses who constantly proclaim that they are geniuses as you do. Anyway, I appreciate your vigilance in defense of freedom, and if your bitcoin conspiracy theory is correct, I wish your altcoin success.  
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November 20, 2013, 06:34:56 AM
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Quote
Contrary to popular thinking here, the dollar will actually get stronger! Because the QE has been going to emerging markets as dollar bond issues. I confirmed this for myself, watching the Asian newspapers business section and the $billions of bond issues denominated in dollars for corporate expansions. So as the global debt crash comes in spades by 2016, the rest of the world is going to desperately need dollars to service their dollar debt. Thus the emerging market currencies will crash.

Why couldn't (or wouldn't) the emerging markets just default? 
If so, then there goes that demand for the dollars to pay back the debt, correct?

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November 20, 2013, 06:55:44 AM
 #66

Amazing, Larry Summers has basically endorsed the principle behind Freicoin.  Though they don't use the terminology it's basically demurrage that's being discussed.  Naturally from a centralized point as with current FED which is different from FRC, but the basic idea that Interest rates SHOULD be negative is a huge statement and a HUGE break with orthodoxy.

FRC:  18mAGEto3xZzfKNJPwsDVA5c2Fk5Za3nbs  http://www.freicoin.org  IRC:  Freenode #freicoin
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November 20, 2013, 07:41:51 AM
 #67

I do think you mean well, I think...you know your life would be a lot easier and less stressful if you just bought a few bitcoins and got over the anxiety of not getting in on the ground floor right?
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November 20, 2013, 07:48:05 AM
 #68

I see, excuse my assumption then.  Best of luck.
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November 20, 2013, 08:07:43 AM
 #69

Is Bitcoin a Ponzi scheme?
In a Ponzi Scheme, the founders persuade investors that they’ll profit. Bitcoin does not make such a guarantee. There is no central entity, just individuals building an economy.
A ponzi scheme is a zero sum game. Early adopters can only profit at the expense of late adopters. Bitcoin has possible win-win outcomes. Early adopters profit from the rise in value. Late adopters, and indeed, society as a whole, benefit from the usefulness of a stable, fast, inexpensive, and widely accepted p2p currency.
The fact that early adopters benefit more doesn't alone make anything a Ponzi scheme. All good investments in successful companies have this quality.

I digress that is off topic here but the point must be stated for the record


Is Bitcoin a Ponzi scheme?

In a Ponzi Scheme, the founders persuade investors that they’ll profit. Bitcoin does not make such a guarantee. There is no central entity, just individuals building an economy.

A ponzi scheme is a zero sum game. Early adopters can only profit at the expense of late adopters. Bitcoin has possible win-win outcomes. Early adopters profit from the rise in value. Late adopters, and indeed, society as a whole, benefit from the usefulness of a stable, fast, inexpensive, and widely accepted p2p currency.
The fact that early adopters benefit more doesn't alone make anything a Ponzi scheme. All good investments in successful companies have this quality.

I asked you to post that in the linked thread that discuss why it is a ponzi scheme. And you have not refuted the reasons given in the thread I linked to. Indeed early adopters can only profit at the expense of late adopters. The statistics prove bitCON can never be a currency. Distribution is lacking and can't be fixed. Read the linked thread for why. And reply there if you want to.

And I only see one point and it is this give them out in point form or something

And quotes on the math, noting that there is no ongoing income to support a P/E ratio that would keep dividend investors invested (thus mathematically it is a ponzi scheme and this is unarguable unless it is currency distributed to the masses):

Rebuttal:

Bitcoins have value because they are useful and because they are scarce. As they are accepted by more merchants, their value will stabilize.

When we say that a currency is backed up by gold, we mean that there's a promise in place that you can exchange the currency for gold. Bitcoins, like dollars and euros, are not backed up by anything except the variety of merchants that accept them.

It's a common misconception that Bitcoins gain their value from the cost of electricity required to generate them. Cost doesn't equal value – hiring 1,000 men to shovel a big hole in the ground may be costly, but not valuable. Also, even though scarcity is a critical requirement for a useful currency, it alone doesn't make anything valuable. For example, your fingerprints are scarce, but that doesn't mean they have any exchange value.
Alternatively it needs to be added that while the law of supply and demand applies it does not guarantee value of Bitcoins in the future. If confidence in Bitcoins is lost then it will not matter that the supply can no longer be increased, the demand will fall off with all holders trying to get rid of their coins.

An example of this can be seen in cases of state currencies, in cases when the state in question dissolves and so no new supply of the currency is available (the central authority managing the supply is gone), however the demand for the currency falls sharply because confidence in its purchasing power disappears. Of-course Bitcoins do not have such central authority managing the supply of the coins, but it does not prevent confidence from eroding due to other situations that are not necessarily predictable.


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November 20, 2013, 08:12:37 AM
 #70

Quote
Most people that own BTC, own 10 to million times more than they would keep in a checking account. When it stops growing in value, they will reduce to what they would keep for spending, and invest the lion's share in something that can grow.

Thus BitCON is a ponzi scheme and will implode to 1/10 to 1/millionth of its peak price.

You didn't refute. Re-read the rest of the original post from that quote down. And don't fail to refute any point. You can't.

An alternative link where I summarized why bitcoin is a ponzi scheme and the reason the 21 million coin limit makes it unarguably so:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=339876.msg3649398#msg3649398

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November 20, 2013, 08:27:37 AM
 #71

OK guys, now for something completely different:

Bitcoin Dealer Network.

During last summer, I had time to develop this matter, but now I have not had the energy to push it. The failure of all the exchanges to cope with demand again, proves that it is of systemic nature. The new demand is coming in waves, and it is not economical for the exchanges to invest in advance. Systemic nature means, the problem will not go away, ever, as long as the exchanges are a dominant way of trading bitcoins.

The dealer network would relieve a great burden from the exchanges, enable large new holders to buy and existing holders to exit effortlessly, and would reduce the volatility to a fraction of what it is in the current system. It would also scale faster and better to the growing size of Bitcoin economy and remove the central-point-of-failure problem that is still plaguing us despite that there are now more exchanges than just one.

The text is quite technical, I hardly understand it myself after a few months Wink Please bear with that and comment on the subject matter instead. Have a nice read!
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November 20, 2013, 02:37:09 PM
 #72

- Instawallet type services can keep almost complete anonymity, because you don't divulge personal information in any step (not exactly know about IP stuff)

If you think that is anonymity, then you are not qualified to speak on the matter. Yeah you don't know about the IP stuff. You are a technical neophyte. So your opinion on the matters I write about is not worthy, because you can't see the big picture.

Besides I am much deeper studied on what has been going on with the various nations, while you've been busy building silverbank and doing deals. I've been researching these past years on true state-of-affairs.

Merkel lied. As soon as she was re-elected, she signed over sovereignty of Germany to the EU. The push to federalize is being accelerated under your nose while you are not looking.

I am not going to try to teach you any more. I've deleted most of my posts from your thread (I still have copy for my private records). Enjoy the bliss. My day to sigh will come...

As for other tax jurisdictions, you will be taxed based on your country of birth. Even if you buy a new citizenship, this will likely be revoked because the developing nation governments will be under immense financial pressure from the USA and the EU as the global economy implodes and they need dollars. There are a few tricks that can be used to gain a citizenship in a developing country that can't likely be revoked no matter what. Marriage is one but only in some countries, and most developing Asian countries not possible. And there is another option that doesn't require marriage, but it is my secret and I am only telling those who I are very close to me and I feel deserve it.

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November 20, 2013, 02:50:31 PM
 #73

I am obviously a troll who doesn't want you to understand my ideas.

That is why I deleted most of my posts from this thread.

And when you all go to jail, do not PM or contact me and say I was correct. I won't care. Because you didn't either.

What I did notice is not a single person could refute anything I wrote. The best I read was "we trust the situation will change, but we have no clue how it might specifically, just decentralization and innovation will save us". But then you don't even know what IP address has to do with anonymity and you think you are qualified to make that judgement?

Besides I will reveal a new vulnerability I found in Bitcoin just an hour ago. I will make a new thread on this. Bitcoin is indeed doomed. This is much more imminent than the Transactions Withholding Attack. It has to do with the fact that transaction fees % can not stop increasing.

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November 20, 2013, 03:28:14 PM
 #74

I have adjusted my assessment of the exchange rate and its near-term development as follows (originally posted in Wall Observer):

I have also increased the odds that we are in a bubble correction to about 75%. That said, I expect the following things happen:

- Lowest recorded trade will be in $2XX range, bigger volume around $300.
- It will take only 3-6 months to regain the old highs.
- Volume will all the time be lower than in previous situations, there is no widespread panic or general capitulation

Two bubbles in 2013  Cheesy Who could have thought...

Beating the yesterday's intraday high (BS: $640, Gox: $750, BTCC: $1000) makes me increase the odds that this is just a weekly consolidation. Every day in declining trend erodes the new investor confidence and induces more and more sales from the earlier investor community.
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November 20, 2013, 10:21:57 PM
 #75

Today was a really intense day. I turned bear. That does not happen often, and there is always the chance to be wrong. If you want to reap the juiciest rewards, you have to act before the others. Then you better bear the uncertainty.

During the bubble top, BTC China had a maximum of 75% premium over Bitstamp. I set myself to explore this opportunity, whether it is viable to open an account there and sell bitcoins, even though the chances of receiving fiat currency in return are slim (CNY has currency controls and I don't have many links to Chinese banks). I decided that the arbitrage opportunity even without the fiat exit is good enough reason to go China, and opened the account.

During the day I bought 10 million CNY, which kind of feels funny. (Until Tuesday I had had no plans to play in China.) In addition I sold coins at Bitstamp, which rose higher than I expected a few hours ago, providing an opportunity.

The following 48 hours are most critical concerning the bubble/no-bubble issue. If we fail to surpass yesterday's highs, and make even lower highs (and potentially lower lows), then this was indeed a bubble, and it will get weeks to sort it out, with the opportunity to buy at $300s at some point(s).

In the complementary scenario, highs are broken and/or flashcrashes abate, we enjoy a week or so of high consolidation ($500 or over) before assaulting new highs. This is a possibility, but I stick to my evaluation that it is less probable than bubblepop. I have written extensively in Wall Observer about the matter. Perhaps open a new thread inspired by SlipperySlope's bubble collapse journal.

There are so many things that can happen but have not yet happened. DDoS, hacks, scams, bubblepop articles, REAL dumps, etc. If we evade all this and happily continue up despite that we are already 1.8x the trendline, I am gladly wrong.

In this case, somebody help me how to spend the ¥10M...  Grin


To whom it may concern: The trades revealed in the public diary have been executed on behalf of numerous entities in multiple jurisdictions. As such, they do not correspond to the ownership, holding, position or change thereof, or realizing of taxable or tax-deductible gains/losses or income of any natural or corporate Person.
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November 20, 2013, 11:02:27 PM
 #76

Clever you sold $1,641,310, thinking you can always buy back in BTC China at lower prices thus no risk on the spread if you are unable to convert CNY to $ to arbitrage it.

But you (and others who follow you) will provide increased liquidity on the ask, thus you may lose spread. No risk, no reward I guess.

Good deed of deploying capital to provide liquidity to the Chinese to obtain BTC and break out of the yuan FX jail which is one of the major factors propping up the corrupt sovereign debt bubble and suppressing China's internal potential. Hope you don't lose.

Now if they can deploy that BTC in the real economy outside of China, instead of sitting in BTC as a ponzi speculation, then we will be onto something viable. Yet it is difficult to invest in anything else when those expected outsized exponential price gains in BTC are compared to the return on real economy investments.

But if this becomes significant (which is very unlikely since most are probably just speculating on the ponzi gains), do you think China's government will not react, considering this would accelerate the adjustment from the current FX induced imbalances (i.e. suppression of salaries and interest rates on savings, subsidizing exports and fixed capital investment and state-owned enterprises) faster than the vested elite of China are allowing for in their recently released master plan?

I hope the Chinese BTC buyers are skilled at deploying IP anonymity. Or maybe China has turned the corner and there will be no more repression.  Undecided

I surmise the Chinese leaders would happily accept speculation in Bitcoin, since it could potentially (if grows large enough) reduce pressure from the speculation in the stock and real estate markets. And it poses no real threat to FX stability since most are probably buying not to use for FX but rather to speculate on the BTC ponzi price.

P.S. Clever to place your assets in a managed fund so that trades are not registered as individual capital gains. I bet there is some rule for US citizens which limits our ability to do this and be the manager of the fund (other than in a managed IRA), and you don't accept USA and Canadian accounts. Any way, I don't think any of this cleverness will help you, because we are not addressing the fundamental threat, which is the bankruptcy of western civilization and that the socialism will force the write down on the millionaires, not the billionaires and trillionaires. This plan was enunciated long ago by the elite. As far as I can see, there is nothing you are doing to change that outcome. Helping Chinese invest in a ponzi scheme isn't going to change that dynamic, rather worsen it.

P.S.S. The threats you mentioned are not catastrophic and would only cause a temporary drop in price. The catastrophic threat would be some flaw discovered that renders Bitcoin fundamentally broken. But assuming such couldn't be fixed and would have near-term impact, is extremely unlikely. So ponzi road ahead is rest assured.

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November 20, 2013, 11:09:13 PM
 #77

Following.

Very interested to know how the Chinese adventure goes.
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November 21, 2013, 07:45:38 AM
 #78

Today was a really intense day. I turned bear.


Just to clarify. Is the a short/medium/long bearish sentiment?
thnx

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November 21, 2013, 08:06:24 AM
 #79

Today was a really intense day. I turned bear.


Just to clarify. Is the a short/medium/long bearish sentiment?
thnx

In my terminology, a bear is someone who holds fiat in hopes of buying back the coins. If I did not trust bitcoin in the medium/long term, I would sell out and not waste a word on this forum. These are not bears. (Being "bearish" on something that you don't have and don't intend to buy, is just talk, because only money has a vote.)

The long-term is outlined in the trend analysis thread. Bitcoin has a very convincing history and promising future from an investor point of view. AnonyMint has broght some political dangers to our attention, which is good. You should carefully monitor if the promise of conquering the fiat system still holds, because most of the exchange rate is based on speculation that this would be the case.

In medium term, we are ahead of the trend. Like a rubber band, when it starts to contract, it has a tendency to contract to the lowest energy state, which is about $400 in December. I sold at an average price of $672. If it goes down to $400 and below, I will buy back. If not, I have several months to buy back before the trend catches my sell price. It does not matter even if we go to $2000, because it will be followed by a crash due to exchange dynamics etc.

The "worst" outcome for me is that this is 2010 all over again. That year price could go up 10x, followed by a bull trap with no real retracement in price, then go up 10x again. Technical analysis was helpless because everyone just wanted a piece of the pie. If this materializes, bitcoin can go to 5 digits next year, and I will still have most of my position intact in a paper wallet.

For a large holder, selling is a win-win. If it runs away from you, your remaining coins are worth more. If it crashes, you get more coins.
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November 21, 2013, 08:23:37 AM
 #80

(Being "bearish" on something that you don't have and don't intend to buy, is just talk, because only money has a vote.)

That is shockingly astute and insightful.

Insights like this are what originally made me appreciate Risto's intellect.

I have a theory that just came to me a few minutes ago. Risto is an expert of exchange. This is where he wants to focus his talent, because that where his talent is. He has demonstrated it numerous times with his various silver exchange clearing houses which have grown in volume (I assume, haven't asked him in recent years).

So he needs something like Bitcoin. He doesn't care if it is Bitcoin or JoeCoin, as long as it is a growing market with the most audience and has the noble objectives (regardless of the details of whether it can actually get there).

So I think I can clear up what occurred recently with myself in this thread. I was expecting Risto to see what I think I see. But this isn't Risto's area of talent as follows. And I shouldn't expect it to be.

Another key distinction is that while a Ponzi scheme always involves the ringleader lieing about what they are doing, a Pyramid scheme often WILL disclose EXACTLY how it works to everyone involved, after all in a decentralized system everyone needs to know the 'DNA' of the scam to perpetuate it.  The problem is that  greed and a lack of 'categorical imperative' (aka failure to think about the systemic effects of everyone acting some way) in most people moral thinking allow them to blithe-fully engage in the Pyramid activity without actually believing it is fraudulent.  You would be appalled at the simplicity of some of the pyramids people will engage in, shit like "recruit 10 people each of which gives you $100 then they recruit 10 people each", literally it can be that simple on it's face.  So the overall attitude of 'it's not fraud because I understand it' that comes from BTC folks is very much like what we would expect in a Pryamid scheme.

Actually for a trader, they need to be emotionless and not influenced by such considerations of complex moral truth, e.g. he couldn't have made the BTC China trade if he had to pause and consider all the things I wrote in response on that. I would have been hamstrung by my conflicted thoughts on the matter. That is why I suck at speculation.

In short, carry on and I apologize for stomping on your thread. I hope you forgive me for my myopia about the differences in areas of talent and interest of others.

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November 21, 2013, 03:12:46 PM
 #81

My buy some more and hold strategy worked so far. I dribbled out quite a few fractional buys: 511, 601, 598, 622, 606, 593, 600 and 607. Currently, MtGox is surging upwards, beyond $700 as I finish this.

I am worried about Risto's big bet that prices are going lower.
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November 21, 2013, 03:22:25 PM
 #82

My buy some more and hold strategy worked so far. I dribbled out quite a few fractional buys: 511, 601, 598, 622, 606, 593, 600 and 607. Currently, MtGox is surging upwards, beyond $700 as I finish this.

I am worried about Risto's big bet that prices are going lower.

I hope he bought back at a loss already Cheesy


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November 21, 2013, 03:24:54 PM
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My buy some more and hold strategy worked so far. I dribbled out quite a few fractional buys: 511, 601, 598, 622, 606, 593, 600 and 607. Currently, MtGox is surging upwards, beyond $700 as I finish this.

I am worried about Risto's big bet that prices are going lower.

I hope he bought back at a loss already Cheesy

You can bet he did. He has much experience and knows you always cut your losses when your stop-loss is hit.

Problem is BTC China. Hope he can trade well on that.

I guess I should say that everyone sucks at speculation. I've never heard of a speculator that didn't end up at 0 eventually.

I know too many stories that I can not share (not about Risto, although we have some too).

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November 21, 2013, 03:46:41 PM
 #84

My buy some more and hold strategy worked so far. I dribbled out quite a few fractional buys: 511, 601, 598, 622, 606, 593, 600 and 607. Currently, MtGox is surging upwards, beyond $700 as I finish this.

I am worried about Risto's big bet that prices are going lower.

If the current technical stock pattern turns out to be a triangle, as was the case back in April, then maybe a midpoint price between the high of 900 and low of 453, equals 676.5. My tactic in this pattern is to buy some more fractions below 675 - if indeed it ever does.
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November 21, 2013, 05:23:18 PM
 #85

My buy some more and hold strategy worked so far. I dribbled out quite a few fractional buys: 511, 601, 598, 622, 606, 593, 600 and 607. Currently, MtGox is surging upwards, beyond $700 as I finish this.

I am worried about Risto's big bet that prices are going lower.

I hope he bought back at a loss already Cheesy

You can bet he did. He has much experience and knows you always cut your losses when your stop-loss is hit.

Problem is BTC China. Hope he can trade well on that.

I guess I should say that everyone sucks at speculation. I've never heard of a speculator that didn't end up at 0 eventually.

I know too many stories that I can not share (not about Risto, although we have some too).

I have a strategy, which does not involve a stop-loss. It involves a concept called creep from last May. Wink I am still short the coins..

..but I have to say it hurts. Just like it hurt after selling in September and seeing the price go up. When enough people have this realization, perhaps we will see singularity after all.  Shocked
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November 21, 2013, 06:01:29 PM
 #86

You asked for feedback on the dealer network.  In a nutshell, the dealer network is trust-based network of large buyers and sellers, with the trust secured by an escrowed deposit.  Bitcoin is a trustless transfer system.  So I see that the dealer network is to some degree a throwback to a previous era.

However, that observation does not mean that it is not useful.  In fact, Bitcoin only allows trust-free TRANSFER, not EXCHANGE.  And to date all geographically disparate mechanisms of exchange require trust (i.e. the centralized exchange websites).

So from that perspective the dealer network is on par with what we've got.

However, a big difference is that it allows its members to acquire BTC rapidly.  The trust involved allows a member to draw BTC right away, but settle later. 
This has 2 advantages.
1. Timeliness -- do not have to wait for the fiat transfer to arrive and be validated.
2. Volume -- This would allow a member to supply BTC to a buyer whose purchase amount is significantly larger than the outlay of the member himself, by drawing the BTC (perhaps into a personal escrow) and then setting up the wire transfers direct from the buyer to the seller.
 
I think the problem with the dealer network is who is willing to sell?  To avoid fiat transfer slippage during bull markets, members would have to have fiat on exchanges.  But the risk profile of this fiat-on-the-exchange is not dissimilar to BTC on the exchange and may even be worse than BTC in a paper wallet due to counterparty risk.

So the network may have liquidity issues.  However, if the network includes payment processors and other entities that tend to have surplus BTC (perhaps via a selling-only account) you may solve this problem.  But what is the incentive for payment processors to want to be included?  Perhaps lack of slippage or a better exchange rate?



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November 21, 2013, 06:08:41 PM
 #87

I have a strategy, which does not involve a stop-loss. It involves a concept called creep from last May. Wink I am still short the coins..

..but I have to say it hurts. Just like it hurt after selling in September and seeing the price go up. When enough people have this realization, perhaps we will see singularity after all.  Shocked

I agree that the market looks way overbought in regard to the consensus log trend price growth.

However, I will be making additional fractional purchases as circumstances and opportunities permit through at least June 2014.
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November 21, 2013, 08:05:38 PM
 #88

The post is copied from another thread, which has since been locked. Links are not copied yet.

"
Bitcoin is a technology. It is a blockchain-based transaction ledger. There is a limited number of claims to this ledger. These are called satoshis, or bitcoins (10^8 satoshi). We are here to deduce if Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme, a Pyramid scheme, a Greater-Fool's-game or just a freely-traded something, subject to markets' whims, resulting in booms, busts, bubbles and crashes.


A) I start with assuming that "Ponzi scheme" option is already refuted beyond doubt.


B) As for "Pyramid scheme", after much deliberation I fail to see the logic, how Bitcoin would qualify. I wonder if we even read the same definitions for a Pyramid scheme:
- Wikipedia
- Investopedia.

The essential qualifications for a pyramid are not met.


C) What has been discussed upthread under the name Pyramid scheme, should more precisely be called Greater-Fool's-game. The essence in this would be that people buy in anticipation of a price rise, without regard of the intrinsic value. If the price is indeed rising, this may suck quite many people in, resulting in a spectacular collapse if the intrinsic value fails to meet the expectations.

It does not matter whether we are talking about Internet stocks with currently negative earnings, tulip bulbs, shares of the Blockchain pie, or something "completely useless" such as modern art. The fact is that people are (in most jurisdictions) free to invent, produce and sell things for whatever price they can gouge in a voluntary market. Also buying at inflated prices is not criminalized.

At most, Bitcoin could be classified in this category.

It has to be noted that this kind of speculative bubbles are almost completely harmless. If the product does not have intrinsic value, its production does not burden the real economy. Every time someone buys the bag at a higher price, another one receives the money. The only way to become bankrupt is to take excessive risk or leverage, which are always very stupid actions and people prone to them cannot be helped unless all banks and casinos are closed.

Unlike Ponzis and Pyramid schemes, which revert to zero when unfolding, speculative bubbles revert to their intrinsic value. There are many Internet stocks that are doing good in Nasdaq, tulip bulbs have a certain price, bitcoins will always have a price and art has its valuation. The real economy lives on quite unaffected of the speculative valuation.


D) It seems that the crux of the matter is, whether Bitcoin/bitcoins have intrinsic value as a currency/money or not. If not, it has been a recurring fad over several years and numerous bubbles, which have repeatedly risen higher and higher. In fact, the numbers we are seeing in the exchanges testify that every day until this week has been a bear trap.

It is hardly possible that Bitcoin would have survived the 2011 bubble if there was not a promise of significant utility. The word promise is important, because money is a high network-effect thing. If I have all the money in the world, it is most likely worth less than half of it. Money tends to be worth the most when it is distributed in a Pareto way.

If all money belongs to a few and others are uniformly poor, the rich cannot employ their money to buy goods and services because the poor are not capitalized to produce them. Similarly the poor cannot buy from the rich because they don't have the money. The (hypothetical and unachievable) situation that everyone has the same amount of money, quickly leads to Pareto distribution (or "worse" top-heaviness, unless the rule of law is present).

Let's think the valuation of Facebook from the user perspective. When Facebook had one user, it was worthless. I would say the value per user grew rather quickly when the earliest users came. Just out of my hat, let's say they valued it at $100 on average. As new users were added, the value for them was initially just above zero (the threshold of joining in is to receive positive value), but the old users' value was increased due to network effects. The more Facebook grew, the more value for everyone. From systems perspective, it should have been obvious that the supermajority of the target segment globally would become users.

The valuation of Facebook in the stock market is $112 billion, which is $95 per monthly active user. If the ownership of the system were possible for everyone in every stage of the adoption process, we would have an ownership distribution curve similar to Bitcoin's. (Now there is some 29-year old geek that owns 24% of all, talk about inequality  Angry ) In both cases, the value is roughly proportional to the number of users, but the issuance is fixed.

Facebook would not have become so valuable if it had not become widespread. Then the investors would have lost their stake. If Bitcoin fails, investors lose likewise. If someone sees the failure before the others and sells out, good for him. It is not a reason to be jailed. This is the basic free stock market operation, nothing new to see there.

Quote
And there is no way to deconcentrate it from the current 90+% of BTC is in a few hands. Thus it can't be a widely accepted currency, because it is not widely held and can't be widely held. By the time 1% of the global population has purchased, it will be priced on the order $30,000+ and then the other 99% won't be able to afford to get much BTC at all. You say that is okay, but it means you impoverish the rest of the world relative to early adopters so the velocity of money would collapse, because very rich people spend a much smaller % of their money than middle class people. The 99% will never go for that arrangement, they will stick with fiat and then the collapse of Bitcoin's bubble will ensue and the stampede to the exits with all trampled and value lost.

Bitcoin is currently distributed in an even theoretically near-optimal scale-invariant Pareto way. Bitcoins can be easily traded in many parts of the world. The free market ensures that they are most optimally distributed, because if someone finds himself with too many bitcoins, he can sell. The one lacking can buy. The distribution of bitcoins is way more efficient and widespread than Facebook stock, and will soon become possible for practically everyone on the planet, which is unprecedented for any investment vehicle or even currency!

We share the vision that the inordinate gains in price drive adoption quicker than the general understanding of Bitcoin spreads. This will lead to a bubble of extraordinary valuation. But that will pop even quicker than it formed and no value will have been lost. The recent examples to be carefully analyzed are the Nasdaq bubble of 1999-2000 and the PM in 1980. Bubbles act as boosters to the underlying. Nasdaq bubble fueled the all-pervasiveness of Internet in the 2000s by providing ample VC money to everyone interested. PM bubble encouraged mining, resulting in tumbling PM prices when the mines started operations a decade later.

The bubble happens when the 2nd % wants to buy. Then it crashes and the 98% can slowly start buying. My father still owns Internet stocks, he only bought them long after the bubble Wink Life and markets go on and do not magically stop at the bubble top. Bitcoin exchange rate will not go to zero, it will go down and provide a spectacular buying opportunity in the wake of mass adoption that will drive the price to its realistic long term value (if there is one).

Quote
I see it can never scale as a currency, thus it has no value to you once the gains stop. Thus you and everyone else will exit and the value will go to near 0. Because only a very small fraction of the market cap is using it for spending.

This can't change, because Bitcoin isn't designed to distribute out to the masses to get them involved in spending it.

Gold is also not used as a currency. Gold is the most salable commodity, meaning that it is the easiest to part with in large quantities. This has been called Money in the past.

As bitcoin grows bigger, it may surpass gold in this regard, or may have already done so. Thought experiment is that a person finds himself in a random place with $1 million worth of gold or bitcoins. How long time and how many % loss he must spend to make the transactions necessary to convert the value to what he needs.

Silver used to be the most hoardable commodity, meaning that it is easiest to accumulate in small increments. Bitcoin has already become the most hoardable thing, proven by tipboxes etc. In long-range applications bitcoins are easier to accumulate than even cash!

There is a reason why the word 'silver' and 'money' are the same in 49 languages.

Quote
Distributing the mining coin rewards to millions of people who download it with one-click will do that.

And the investors can buy from them. So no problem the greed will help then.

Bitcoin is the inverse (converse)!

The investors mine the coins, then the masses are expected to buy them. brain dead design for a coin.

The Russians tried to privatize the communist state wealth directly to the people. The result was 50 million people who owned their share of huge enterprises for a few minutes, until somebody bought it from them at a price of a small bottle of vodka, or a cup of coffee. The companies ended back in oligarch control. It is not optimal, workable or possible for everybody to own a little. It invariably ends in somebody owning it all, and the masses do not get much of a benefit for selling their share. As much as we both would like it, faucets don't work.

In a more theoretical vein, if we assume that the altcoin system is worth $1,000 per user, and the users generate the value for themselves by CPU mining, and the inflation rate mimics gold's 2% APR, then the mining reward is $20 per user per year, and it is indeed a perfect analogy to exchange your monthly reward for a cup of coffee. Hardly a recipe for a stealth mass-adoption.
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November 21, 2013, 09:20:53 PM
 #89

Some of the oldtimers may remember the Haikko Manor summit. I have finally started the production of video material, so let us start with the following trailer (the password: "bitcoin"):

Silvervault presents: Haikko Manor Bitcoin Summit May 2013: The Appetizer
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November 21, 2013, 09:46:08 PM
 #90

Epic! Cheesy Hope to see more soon!
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November 24, 2013, 12:05:07 PM
 #91

It is good to read something concise concerning Bitcoin, and not just random forum talk:

The way the holders have the balls to hold is that they understand what is happening. The world is switching over to secure digital asset ledgers. They are simply unquestionably superior. Since they've already cashed out enough fiat currency to meet their daily needs, the only thing they care about is increasing their share in that asset register.

If you want be able to hold on to your coins, deeper research and thought about the system in the grand sweep of things is essential. Here are some links for deep Bitcoin scholarship:

Money as Memory

http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/sr/sr218.pdf
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1fw3m5/bitcoin_is_memory/
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=232137.0
http://libertyhq.freeforums.org/fed-economist-predicts-bitcoin-will-end-the-fed-t938-20.html
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=230416.msg2450191#msg2450191
http://archive.freecapitalists.org/forums/t/31743.aspx

Natural Order

I, Pencil video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYO3tOqDISE
I, Pencil essay: http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/I,_Pencil
http://mises.org/journals/scholar/hasnas.pdf
http://faculty.msb.edu/hasnasj/GTWebsite/TIL.PDF
http://archive.freecapitalists.org/forums/t/8889.aspx
http://archive.freecapitalists.org//forums/t/18619.aspx
Google "FA Hayek, The Fatal Conceit" (book, available in PDF)


Panarchy

Balaji Srinivasan, Silicon Valley's Ultimate Exit: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOubCHLXT6A&t=1m0s
http://athousandnations.com/2009/10/20/towards-youtopia-are-all-public-good-providers-earthbound/
http://www.panarchy.org/knott/bitcoin.html


Economics

Google "Economics in One Lesson" (book, available in PDF)
http://mises.org/Books/humanaction.pdf (PDF)


Also look into the revolutionary nature of:

- P2P

- Open Source

- Cryptography


Summaries

http://evoorhees.blogspot.ch/2013/05/bitcoin-2013-role-of-bitcoin-as-money.html
http://konradsgraf.squarespace.com/storage/On%20the%20Origins%20of%20Bitcoin%20Graf%2023.10.13.pdf
http://archive.freecapitalists.org/forums/p/32931/512864.aspx
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=230416.msg2450191#msg2450191


Future Applications

Mike Hearn's 2012 talk: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mD4L7xDNCmA
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November 24, 2013, 05:29:34 PM
 #92

There may be some gray areas between the definition of a Network and a Ponzi-scheme but I believe Bitcoin is a protocol so calling Bitcoin a Ponzi-scheme is a point I quickly move past.

What you believe is much less relevant than what ends up being in reality. I bet Charles Ponzi feigned innocence through certain beliefs. I rebutted Risto. If anyone feels they have a useful argument to make, PM me and I will unlock the linked thread. I locked it because of the useless, noisy "you are just sore because you didn't buy Bitcoin" butt hurt spam (hilarious butt hurt form). Cheers.

There is a lot of noise in that thread. In the end with Ponzi, if you you were holding 'physical' you could still mail a letter Wink
Ponzi's problem were promises he made based on leverage. Currently the price of Bitcoin is extremely leveraged by speculators which explains the volatility. Ponzi's scheme lasted a little over a year and his problem was that he could not deliver on his promises and ultimately could not repay that which he borrowed. His arbitrage methods were essentially legal.

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November 24, 2013, 08:29:05 PM
 #93

Please feel free to add to that. It's just a few links so far, but I've seen many more that I forgot about and will have to dig up later. This might be a good addition for the natural order section, or perhaps summary.

Here's another, perhaps belonging in the panarchy section: Bitcoin and Unbreakable Law. Excerpt:

Quote
Imagine that you were entertaining a business deal with a man with an supernatural ability to make two kinds of promises: 1) promises that are impossible for him to break and 2) ordinary, breakable promises. Why would you accept anything other than the unbreakable promises from him? If he offered to make  breakable promises you might grow suspicious about his intent.

It’s easy to see how unbreakable promises would be a revolution for contracts and law. Enforcement costs for contracts would be drastically reduced. It would enable a new era of globalization, allowing people to participate in contracts with each other without regard to jurisdiction. The rights promised to a citizen of a country could be guaranteed instead of relying on the benevolence and caprice of their sovereign.

This is why I find Bitcoin so exciting. Sending someone a bitcoin is like making a promise that can’t be broken because the rules governing the transfer of bitcoins are secured by cryptographic algorithms which cannot be broken. Bitcoin is a system of rules for the accounting and transfer of property rights in a way that is completely verifiable and unforgeable. The regulation and enforcement of property rights is a big portion of what governments do so bitcoin opens the door to more efficient and trustable decentralized forms of governance.
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November 24, 2013, 08:52:11 PM
 #94

Please feel free to add to that. It's just a few links so far, but I've seen many more that I forgot about and will have to dig up later. This might be a good addition for the natural order section, or perhaps summary.

Here's another, perhaps belonging in the panarchy section: Bitcoin and Unbreakable Law. Excerpt:

Quote
Imagine that you were entertaining a business deal with a man with an supernatural ability to make two kinds of promises: 1) promises that are impossible for him to break and 2) ordinary, breakable promises. Why would you accept anything other than the unbreakable promises from him? If he offered to make  breakable promises you might grow suspicious about his intent.

It’s easy to see how unbreakable promises would be a revolution for contracts and law. Enforcement costs for contracts would be drastically reduced. It would enable a new era of globalization, allowing people to participate in contracts with each other without regard to jurisdiction. The rights promised to a citizen of a country could be guaranteed instead of relying on the benevolence and caprice of their sovereign.

This is why I find Bitcoin so exciting. Sending someone a bitcoin is like making a promise that can’t be broken because the rules governing the transfer of bitcoins are secured by cryptographic algorithms which cannot be broken. Bitcoin is a system of rules for the accounting and transfer of property rights in a way that is completely verifiable and unforgeable. The regulation and enforcement of property rights is a big portion of what governments do so bitcoin opens the door to more efficient and trustable decentralized forms of governance.

I'd like to add this:

http://prezi.com/vfdcr18qie2w/decentralized-society-and-bitcoin-contracts/

It's a slide show regarding the work ahead when thinking about a completely decentralized society.
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November 24, 2013, 09:06:24 PM
 #95

That is good. I was hoping people would use Prezi more. It's a great tool for visual wikis and you can make one very large one and use it to make a whole series of videos discussing a topic.
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November 26, 2013, 12:43:16 PM
 #96

Meanwhile I write about the positive case of Bitcoin revolutionizing the world of money, like Internet revolutionized the world of information:

That confirms my expectation of a price peak 2015 +/- 1 year, i.e. I don't expect we make it to 2017 before Bitcoin's bubble has collapsed. This is my opinion. No way Bitcoin makes it to $1 million per BTC, because that would be a $20 trillion market cap which is much larger chunk of the global net worth than I think is realistic for what what I view to be an irrational mania not supported by fundamental value of a currency.

You told some time back that you would not sell your experience to me at any cheap price. What part of your experience is only valuable in the context of Internet? What would you say is the value of Internet to you, or to an average person?

As for me, I am able to live without a good health. I would pay much to gain one, though.

But I don't own a house, have a car, or TV, or coffee maker, even though I could buy those things. They are negative value to me.

Without Internet, the world would go back to information repression. Dark ages. Let's say I value the freedom of Internet to $1 million. In actuality I value it much more, because instead of going to work, I spend my days solidifying the Internet by posting valuable free information there. I would make much more money than $1 million by going to work and scheming something that profits me in the expense of others.

I think Bitcoin brings even more important things to the game than Internet. It is the coercion-free money (transfer protocol) of the Internet, and capable of bringing such abundance and freedom that the oppressive structures of the world would just lose their grip. Vote, or exit. Bitcoin enables exit in actuality for large groups of brilliant people, whereas PM's only enabled exit for very few (like you and me), and those could not leverage their exit any way. Internet enabled exit for VC investors (pun), but their money sits in the controlled financial instruments. Bitcoin is the most important exit, considering everything that has been available so far.

So what is my net worth calculation? Health. Knowledge. Most of the other things are worth zero (and for this reason I don't have them). Oh yes, and some financial wealth, most of it in bitcoins.
 
Is it so difficult to think that the Internet is worth a double-digit percentage of the world? The world is valued at $400T, which does not include Internet. I cannot easily dream how Bitcoin protocol in practicality changes the world (any more than I was able to grasp how many industries were revolutionized by Internet before it started to happen), but I can say that $6T, gold's market cap, is only realistic in the case that Bitcoin does not turn out to be more than digital gold.

If it really takes off, it makes most of the valued structures in the world obsolete (the same way as I sold the cars and did not buy a TV even for free). The real limit (in mathematical sense, limit is the absolute upper bound) for Bitcoin's value is more than 50% of the world.

In Old Testament times, the property rights of land could not be enforced, or were not applicable in cases that land was only used for herding. The technology was uniform and there was no capital stock (material or immaterial). The wealth of people consisted of cattle, salt, cloths and garments, and gold and silver. The gold and silver accounted for more than half of all the wealth (including land!).

Perhaps we are entering in an age where most of people's wealth is again in most hidable, most protable, most usable form, as the industrial age and its huge capital requirements give way to Internet based businesses with immaterial capital, capital which can be created directly from knowledge, by mixing in only a trivial amount of money, which is ubiquituous anyway.

Soon everybody is so rich that money will only be used to buy groceries. The more interesting things of this life will not be (able to be) bought with money, any more than they are now. The difference is that nobody will be out of groceries Smiley
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November 27, 2013, 08:08:58 AM
 #97

Today was a really intense day. I turned bear.

Ouch. Did you buy back?

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November 27, 2013, 08:14:55 AM
 #98

Today was a really intense day. I turned bear.

Ouch. Did you buy back?

This should be known to you already. Possibilities are:

1. I get to buy back the same amount cheaper.
2. I get to cash out the money enough for retirement+ride the freebies.

It has not even visited the #1 territory so I guess it is #2 then.  Grin


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November 27, 2013, 08:35:23 AM
 #99

Today was a really intense day. I turned bear.

Ouch. Did you buy back?

This should be known to you already. Possibilities are:

1. I get to buy back the same amount cheaper.
2. I get to cash out the money enough for retirement+ride the freebies.

It has not even visited the #1 territory so I guess it is #2 then.  Grin

Of course I had assumed this and assumed I was having an effect on you, or perhaps it was just serendipity Smiley

I am happy if I rescued a friend.

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November 27, 2013, 09:01:26 AM
 #100

Today was a really intense day. I turned bear.

Ouch. Did you buy back?

This should be known to you already. Possibilities are:

1. I get to buy back the same amount cheaper.
2. I get to cash out the money enough for retirement+ride the freebies.

It has not even visited the #1 territory so I guess it is #2 then.  Grin




#2 is pretty good too, and quite necessary. Enjoy.

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November 27, 2013, 01:20:10 PM
 #101

Today's been quiet. The tide of bitcoins has changed so that they are now flowing from BTC China to Mt.Gox and Bitstamp, to be sold (this is evidenced by the negative spread). The western appetite for bitcoins can thus be satisfied at these higher prices.

Whereas China wanted to buy bitcoins from us in the early stages of the rally (+ the pop and the crash after that), now as prices seem permanently higher, they sell them back. Good for them!  Cheesy

I have been thinking what to do with the newfound wealth. Currently it seems prudent to buy a castle/manor house to be a second apartment, and keep the rest of the gains as a fiat position, which can be used in all kinds of trading activities, doing arbitrage etc. Then perhaps buy a new car if there are nice models available (last summer it was white Audi A7 that I was interested in). I already have a large stash of precious metals, several safes and a vault. (The castle would add another vault.)

Taking care of my own affairs is quite time-consuming; I just felt that the time was right to solidify the old world position while keeping the supermajority of the bitcoins. Some have said that they do not want any non-portable wealth no matter how expensive bitcoin gets. That is fine. I am more concerned about those that want to be rich, but do not understand what it takes. Currently, the positions to become rich are still available for everyone, as long as they do not sell their bitcoins prematurely.
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November 27, 2013, 05:27:50 PM
 #102

I guess the castle will be in China !


not necessarily in China
http://www.oftwominds.com/blognov13/China-overseas11-13.html

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November 27, 2013, 05:34:53 PM
 #103

I have been thinking what to do with the newfound wealth. Currently it seems prudent to buy a castle/manor house to be a second apartment, and keep the rest of the gains as a fiat position, which can be used in all kinds of trading activities, doing arbitrage etc. Then perhaps buy a new car if there are nice models available (last summer it was white Audi A7 that I was interested in).

Audi A7? Wow, I thought you would be driving something more suitable to a Supernode. Something like a Lamborighini Reventon:


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November 27, 2013, 07:17:14 PM
 #104

@rpietila

I am going to follow your "rake" method in the other thread.  Am wondering, do you think at some point we should cash out most of the holdings in case of a dramatic dip by estimating an adoption top-off point in the future?  your rake method goes to $1000/mbtc, which is great, but what if there are signs $300 will be the top, or $1000 is the top etc.  Especially if the amount of funds we have in btc at that time can have a dramatic impact on our life.  estimating the top will be the hard part, and it doesn't necessarily have to crash back down for long, I mean it could hit $1000 then correct to $300 and advance slowly and smoothly from there if it gains mainstream adoption.  However, at that point profit-taking most of the mbtc at $1000 and keeping a small % for the long term would be wise.  What do you think?  

Also, what do you think about starting to rake at $5k, or $10k?

Thanks, really appreciate all the knowledge you offer.  Smiley

I think the point with rake method is so you don't have to be estimating tops. If you feel you want to have a higher percentage of fiat over 100mbtc for example then make your rake strategy already now so that this will be the case. Either rake at a higher percentage from the start or start raking more at a certain point.

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November 27, 2013, 07:25:26 PM
 #105

Starting to rake past a certain point makes the most sense.  Little fiat now won't change much, having more mbtc at $100+ obv a big deal.
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November 28, 2013, 01:34:52 AM
 #106

I am quite satisfied that the discussion has changed from "we will never sell BTC" to how to transfer value to the masses as adoption peaks.

Progress. And note Litecoin is $36 now.

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November 28, 2013, 06:26:49 AM
 #107

What is the simplest way to short LTC?
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November 28, 2013, 06:48:45 AM
 #108

Buy all the BTC?
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November 28, 2013, 07:08:28 AM
 #109

What is the simplest way to short LTC?

I've never done it before, but I noticed in my Bitfinex account https://www.bitfinex.com that there are 15,000 LTC available for shorting at 2% APR.  I think you'd have to sell them on the Bitfinex exchange, however, as I don't think they route trades to BTC-e [but I may be wrong].

EDIT: Looks like there's enough LTC available for shorting at Bitfinex that you could actually take out most of the order book, Risto.  Give us the heads up before you drop da bomb yo  Grin

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November 28, 2013, 08:19:18 AM
 #110

Regarding the last two comments, I wonder when calls for the SEC and EU equivalents to get involved will come due to what I am reading to be desire to collude to manipulate markets? Or am I misreading.

Is discussing one's trading intentions on a public forum "colluding to manipulate markets?"  

...but please do short every new altcoin that purports to be the Bitcoin-killer. PLEASE.

Uh oh Anonymint, looks like you expressed a real "desire to collude" here.  Better turn yourself in. 



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November 29, 2013, 09:38:07 AM
 #111

Today I've been pruning the threads (see OP for all the nice threads where specific matters are discussed) and adding more content.

A few weeks ago we had a discussion about what to do as the bitcoin holdings seem over-concentrated and most of the world don't have much. I think bitcoin holdings are not that concentrated after all, and the current mechanisms for distribution are effective enough. Partly I realized this as I have been called über-bull and whatnot, but I still decided to throw a dice whether I get a retirement at an expense of thousands of bitcoins, or get to buy them back cheaper and merely get a car and a house as profits. The markets have decided that I need a retirement, so be it. Smiley But the fact is that thousands of bitcoins are now in somebody else's hands.

To be able to enjoy your retirement, I suggest you make a very solid plan on when and how much to cash out. If possible, you should structure the sales to very small increments, to avoid exchange risk. Only sell when the price is rising, and do sell. If you hold through the peak, it just makes you anxious to sell afterwards when it's clear that the price is not rising back in a few weeks.

That I am "suddenly" advocating selling is based on the math that during every double in price, on average 17% of the previous holders' bitcoins are sold. So why not sell according to a reasonable model that mathematically rewards you + takes away the anxiety?

We will soon have updated wealth distribution in that thread. Probably we will need to increase the Bitcoin usership significantly. The previous estimate is only 350,000. Now the price has risen 5x, which - if directly correlated - would put the usership at 1.75M.

Also I've been trying to move the bitcoins back from China. Just a few days ago I could buy there at cost and sell in Bitstamp. Now the premium is already about 13%, which makes it more interesting to sell them back, and wait for the price to equalize.

I am thinking that currently there is quite much momentum in bitcoin's price, so at the moment I would not sell speculatively. Just sell according to the plan when the price goes up. There will be peaks and crashes on the way, and considering how pathetic the exchanges are, they will continue to be unusable at the time of action. My original speculation of going to $2000+ and then crash to $500 looks quite viable now. But if I lose money on speculation, who are you to believe you win?  Roll Eyes

Hopefully even next year we would no more have the need to transfer to fiat at all. It is just a pain, a sad reminder of the past.
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December 03, 2013, 07:18:19 AM
 #112

Just a quick note: My wife wanted to send some relief to Philippines disaster victims. It happened that the mediating organization is based in the U.S. and therefore accept USD in a U.S. bank. For some weird reason, international wires that used to be a standard in online bank (at a $37-$74 fee of course but still) have recently been disabled so that you need to go to the branch office to physically fill in the papers. Last time I had to do this was when I bought some bitcoins from Goat, it took about 3 hours total. Luckily we don't live in the rural areas - even 100km distance from here (heart of the capital of Finland) it may be that your nearest bank is 30km away.

After the money is sent, it will take an equally time-consuming journey to Philippines, and lose its value in fees, conversions and even inflation. Meanwhile the long delays make sure that the disaster victims have to suffer before the aid reaches them.

I hereby declare that I will not donate anything in other currency than Bitcoin anymore. I will not trust my money to anyone who does not understand Bitcoin, except when his life is in immediate danger.

This is in addition to the refusal to use anything except Bitcoin in internet purchases.
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December 03, 2013, 10:43:12 AM
 #113

have recently been disabled so that you need to go to the branch office to physically fill in the papers.

I told you the capital controls and confiscations are coming. You are seeing the early signs. Armstrong had a post recently documenting the major banks in the USA are eliminating the ability to send international wires from normal accounts.

After the money is sent, it will take an equally time-consuming journey to Philippines, and lose its value in fees, conversions and even inflation. Meanwhile the long delays make sure that the disaster victims have to suffer before the aid reaches them.

It is much too late. I know many in the region and they've already left for Manila because they can't afford anything in the disaster areas.

Massive (child) prostitution and human trafficking is ongoing.

The aid is coming into Tacloban for the media show and there falls into a black hole and is resold at high prices to the outlying areas. Your aid effectively is likely supporting the profits of private armies in the area.

If you really wanted to make a difference, you would need to come to the area and distribute the money yourself. And you would probably need bodyguards.

Sorry Bitcoin isn't accepted any where there. You would need pesos and real goods.

There is a need to quickly harvest all the fallen coco lumber into makeshift homes before it rots. So many homeless.

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December 03, 2013, 10:49:03 AM
 #114

That makes me sad, she just wants to help  Sad
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December 03, 2013, 11:00:07 AM
 #115

Hopefully even next year we would no more have the need to transfer to fiat at all. It is just a pain, a sad reminder of the past.

We're heading in that direction at least. I only realized a little while ago that I wouldn't need to sell my BTC if I wanted to buy an airline ticket.. I'll just use btctrip instead. Same thing with buying stuff off Amazon... use Gyft.

And seeing as Amazon has a subscription service for things like toilet paper, cat food, and other household items.. I wouldn't need to buy them at the supermarket.. I could, in reality, buy them with bitcoin online.
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December 03, 2013, 11:35:17 AM
 #116

Just a quick note: My wife wanted to send some relief to Philippines disaster victims. It happened that the mediating organization is based in the U.S. and therefore accept USD in a U.S. bank. For some weird reason, international wires that used to be a standard in online bank (at a $37-$74 fee of course but still) have recently been disabled so that you need to go to the branch office to physically fill in the papers. Last time I had to do this was when I bought some bitcoins from Goat, it took about 3 hours total. Luckily we don't live in the rural areas - even 100km distance from here (heart of the capital of Finland) it may be that your nearest bank is 30km away.

After the money is sent, it will take an equally time-consuming journey to Philippines, and lose its value in fees, conversions and even inflation. Meanwhile the long delays make sure that the disaster victims have to suffer before the aid reaches them.

I hereby declare that I will not donate anything in other currency than Bitcoin anymore. I will not trust my money to anyone who does not understand Bitcoin, except when his life is in immediate danger.

This is in addition to the refusal to use anything except Bitcoin in internet purchases.


I purchased the domain BitCharity.com a while back hoping to make a central hub for bitcoin donations but never had the time. If you have any ideas for it, would be glad to hear it.

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December 03, 2013, 11:50:42 AM
 #117

Charity is a flawed concept. In most cases it resembles government.

Everything is better organized by open market. The current system of socialism greatly aggravates suffering in crisis situations, because the incentives are twisted exactly to the opposite than what they should be:

For example, in times of crisis, businesses may have to give away their emergency supplies to the government, or to sell at rationed prices. Hoarding is discouraged, you may even lose your life if you try to defend your property. Yet, these businesses and hoarders would be in the very position to make the whole "crisis" a non-issue if only they would be let to operate normally and property not touched.

Because private preparation for crisis is discouraged under the laws that "it will be confiscated anyway", government has everyone at their mercy considering the most vulnerable supplies. Well planned. Hope as few of you as possible burn in hell.
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December 03, 2013, 12:35:28 PM
 #118

Can't you find a smaller charity that you can confirm is operating in the area rather than through a central clearing for all charity into the area?

Other than that, I could try to refer you to some locals, but I can't vouch that someone will remain honest when tempted. And the problem is the low economy-of-scale for you. Filipinos tend to be very caring but territorial first to self, then family, then tribe. Not all of course, but this is the serious friction you would encounter on the ground in real life.

I really wanted to go into the area. I had to decide between coding or going there.  Cry

I was actually texting with people who were hit by the eye about midnight before the towers went out and the eye came through roughly 8 - 9am. Then I could not make any contacts into the area for several days.

P.S. I probably exaggerated to some extent, but I might not be far from the reality. There were free bus rides provided out of the area to Manila. But I am not exaggerating that aid is not reaching the far flung areas. There are also many smaller islands.

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December 03, 2013, 01:11:48 PM
 #119

Other than that, I could try to refer you to some locals, but I can't vouch that someone will remain honest when tempted. And the problem is the low economy-of-scale for you. Filipinos tend to be very caring but territorial first to self, then family, then tribe. Not all of course, but this is the serious friction you would encounter on the ground in real life.

This is the solution, not the problem. It allocates the resources most effectively:
- The affected receive bitcoins directly to them just hours after the crisis, from private donors. P2P
- The material relief takes longer, but if it is allowed to go to the areas and sold at market price, all will be fine before a week has passed.
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December 03, 2013, 02:00:10 PM
 #120

From another thread:

Important thing is that it refused to be pricked, and bounced straight back from $800 (bitstamp), which has become a strong support. The probability that it will be breached (for anything more but a flashcrash, maximum) has strongly diminished.

Gox also held well.

But who had a look at BTC China? It refused to be manipulated at all! The spread between China and Bitstamp went to +20% due to stamp crashing, whereas both the day before and after it was close to 0%. China is providing so immense liquidity that it has changed the game totally.

The weekend was the best opportunity for taking the price down, and all tricks were pulled, but it seems to have just proven that the $1,000 level is legitimate. It is a nice, round figure, and fundamentals and exponential trends are soon catching it. The lacking volume in these prices, which was my concern, and the topic of this thread, has feen fulfilled.

I am sorry if my bearish call in Nov 19 was misinterpreted as an exhortation to sell all, or even half of anyone's holdings. With bitcoin, most of the holdings should be in cold storage and the rest diversified to other forms of wealth according to a predetermined plan, for example the SSS plan.

Add to this:

I instructed the newcomers to buy only BTC1 when my bearish call was in force. Now you can buy as much as you want, because the probability of a prolonged crash from these levels is lowered. Just remember to invest what you can afford to lose, because Bitcoin is in beta, and nobody guarantees it. Probably till the day it does away with fiat, it is still guaranteed by no one  Wink
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December 03, 2013, 02:03:19 PM
 #121

Probably till the day it does away with fiat, it is still guaranteed by no one  Wink

Even then. That's the beauty because guarantees are meaningless anyway.
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December 03, 2013, 02:29:29 PM
 #122

Other than that, I could try to refer you to some locals, but I can't vouch that someone will remain honest when tempted. And the problem is the low economy-of-scale for you. Filipinos tend to be very caring but territorial first to self, then family, then tribe. Not all of course, but this is the serious friction you would encounter on the ground in real life.

This is the solution, not the problem. It allocates the resources most effectively:
- The affected receive bitcoins directly to them just hours after the crisis, from private donors. P2P
- The material relief takes longer, but if it is allowed to go to the areas and sold at market price, all will be fine before a week has passed.

I should have written "clan" as I meant many local tribes sometimes mostly composed of relatives up to 5th cousins.

Actually I mostly agree and was thinking similarly when I wrote it. The only downside is when clans cheat and try to dominate other clans, e.g. cornering the aid supplies.

There are some localbitcoins market makers in Manila. They can send into LBC and other local money transfer outlets. So you can get pesos into that area directly.

I texted a filipino man who is a real estate broker and a good organizer. He replied just now, "Its a jungle out there. So disorganized. Some want to help others just want to make some money. How can I help, would I be paid for my time?". Note he has a 1 year old, and lives rather frugally on a smaller island, so he can't really offer his time for free.

Would it help if I found someone willing to compile a list of names for a reasonable compensation?

Then those who want to contribute could send directly to their name using localbitcoins providers in Manila who would send it on via LBC or the pawn shop money transfer outlets.

I know a few names I can put on that list, such as one lady who lost her Dad last year due to not being able to afford hospitalization for his kidney stones, then she and her mom lost their house to the typhoon. She is from Naval, Biliran island just near to Tacloban.

I know several others can I bet my contacts can provide a list of names.

Again I can't put much time into this, so I would need to farm it out to someone and money talks over here perhaps even a $100 or so.


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December 03, 2013, 02:43:28 PM
 #123

Just got off the phone with my real estate broker contact. I mentioned to him about compiling a list of names and he said he has many contacts in government all over the country from his fraternity brothers in college. I don't have time to organize, but if you are really serious about using Bitcoin for this I will put you in touch with him. You could promote this for Bitcoin in the press.

He confirmed the likelihood of cornering of supplies coming into to the area.

I am not against the promotion Bitcoin would receive and the help it could provide to the needy. More power to you. Let me know in public or PM.

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December 03, 2013, 05:01:07 PM
 #124

Just a quick note: My wife wanted to send some relief to Philippines disaster victims. It happened that the mediating organization is based in the U.S. and therefore accept USD in a U.S. bank. For some weird reason, international wires that used to be a standard in online bank (at a $37-$74 fee of course but still) have recently been disabled so that you need to go to the branch office to physically fill in the papers. Last time I had to do this was when I bought some bitcoins from Goat, it took about 3 hours total. Luckily we don't live in the rural areas - even 100km distance from here (heart of the capital of Finland) it may be that your nearest bank is 30km away.

After the money is sent, it will take an equally time-consuming journey to Philippines, and lose its value in fees, conversions and even inflation. Meanwhile the long delays make sure that the disaster victims have to suffer before the aid reaches them.

I hereby declare that I will not donate anything in other currency than Bitcoin anymore. I will not trust my money to anyone who does not understand Bitcoin, except when his life is in immediate danger.

This is in addition to the refusal to use anything except Bitcoin in internet purchases.


The best way is to go the P2P route, if that is not possible then here are a few addresses of organizations/people who accept Bitcoin donations for the Phillipines disaster victims.

Forum member Dabs
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=300631.0
BitMe
https://bitme.com/donate
CoinKite
http://blog.coinkite.com/post/67370637668/6725-from-the-bitcoin-community-to-the-canadian-red-cros

The people of Phillipines are hard working, but have had a series of natural disasters in the last two months. First the earthquake in Bohol, followed by super storm Haiyan.
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December 03, 2013, 10:26:17 PM
 #125

I don't have time to organize, but if you are really serious about using Bitcoin for this I will put you in touch with him. You could promote this for Bitcoin in the press.

He confirmed the likelihood of cornering of supplies coming into to the area.

Seems that the problem is not the lack of purchasing power but the lack of free market. It does not help to send money, if the people are not able to buy what they need. As for sending supplies, you pretty much need to know the person who will allocate them, to make sure they reach the needy. We happened to visit Andhra Pradesh in late 2004, just before the tsunami. We were then in a prime position to send effective emergency aid by channels we had just audited were working properly.

I am sure that the world will develop very innovative solutions for the money allocation problem as soon as the governments realize they better get out of the way of the free movement of goods.

Thank you very much for your effort. Now if you think there is somebody to whom I can trust to send 500mBTC to be used for replacing of basic kitchen equipment, blankets, buy rice etc., hit me with a PM. But only if you believe it will truly help.
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December 04, 2013, 07:45:43 AM
 #126

It is a breakdown in law and order, as not everyone has enough force to stop those armed who take advantage. Also many of the prisoners escaped from the prisons in that area. Also corruption/control around choke points.

The problem might be that common people don't own guns to protect themselves, yet that is perhaps because in the 19th century, there was so much danger of a competing tribe killing a male or indenturing a female, and there was a proliferation of weapons. It seems that security has always been organized by village captains. Some of this order fell away after the typhoon, and it will return I assume once the farmers can be stabilized again. As of now, many people feel desperate and are roaming around to find solutions. Of course not in every community, it varies and I assume it is improving.

Thank you very much for your effort. Now if you think there is somebody to whom I can trust to send 500mBTC to be used for replacing of basic kitchen equipment, blankets, buy rice etc., hit me with a PM. But only if you believe it will truly help.

I have a question first.

Do you mean a donation that can be used to provide those items for an entire community or do you mean allocated to one extended family "clan" who lost their home?

That amount is enough to construct some simple shelter and provide (probably considerable bulk) food. It is probably possible for you to receive a photo with a "thank you rpietila" or "we love you rpietila" sign in front of the goods and shelter that results. My read on the situation is the food can be purchased, just the price is higher (how much higher I do not know) because of those taking advantage to both hoard supplies and the lack of economies-of-scale in the distribution system right now due to various factors. Realize the poor spend a large % of their income on food, so even a small % higher is difficult, especially when their sources of livelihood have been lost in many cases (coconut harvesting and fishing boats gone).

I am also thinking of another who still has the frame of a house, but no roof. That level of donation might be more appropriate to constructing the roof and food. I think the one in Biliran is more needy, yet she left her mother behind and is in Manila and would need to return to administer the photo. I guess I would liason (for free of course, thus my donation is my time) the communication/organization for this one only for you, but the money would go directly to the chosen individual's name via localbitcoin send.

In the Philippines, all unhidden possessions are shared with all members of the clan. This is why "my infant nephew broken my cell phone" is a common event that I didn't understand until it became clear to me the culture doesn't not allow the word "no" when it comes to sharing known material possessions.

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December 04, 2013, 09:37:56 AM
 #127

Do you mean a donation that can be used to provide those items for an entire community or do you mean allocated to one extended family "clan" who lost their home?

It is not that much, really. I think give it to someone trustable who has the need and ability to put the money in good use for the benefit of people in his immediate neighborhood (however you call it). If he is personally not the most needy, he should consider who is and give the money or supplies.

I don't need thank you pictures, but hundreds of people read this thread. So some of them may be in the position to give a few mBTC after hearing the report that the initial donation reached the recipient and has been converted to roof tiles, pots and pans, or food Smiley

I am getting interested! Of course it is more hassle for the donor, but also at least 10x more timely help for the needy!
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December 04, 2013, 09:51:51 AM
 #128

Do you mean a donation that can be used to provide those items for an entire community or do you mean allocated to one extended family "clan" who lost their home?

It is not that much, really. I think give it to someone trustable who has the need and ability to put the money in good use for the benefit of people in his immediate neighborhood (however you call it). If he is personally not the most needy, he should consider who is and give the money or supplies.

I don't need thank you pictures, but hundreds of people read this thread. So some of them may be in the position to give a few mBTC after hearing the report that the initial donation reached the recipient and has been converted to roof tiles, pots and pans, or food Smiley

I am getting interested! Of course it is more hassle for the donor, but also at least 10x more timely help for the needy!
I too have been wondering how best to assist say with 4 bitcoins and till I read this going to use the BitMe address because apparently that is going directly to the Philippines Red Cross, the Red Cross being an organisation who I would guess vet very carefully how money is spent given the loss of its reputation would be disastrous.

But I'll hold for a few more days if there are other suggestions as to how it could be used more effectively.

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December 04, 2013, 10:14:55 AM
 #129

Do you mean a donation that can be used to provide those items for an entire community or do you mean allocated to one extended family "clan" who lost their home?

It is not that much, really. I think give it to someone trustable who has the need and ability to put the money in good use for the benefit of people in his immediate neighborhood (however you call it). If he is personally not the most needy, he should consider who is and give the money or supplies.

I don't need thank you pictures, but hundreds of people read this thread. So some of them may be in the position to give a few mBTC after hearing the report that the initial donation reached the recipient and has been converted to roof tiles, pots and pans, or food Smiley

I am getting interested! Of course it is more hassle for the donor, but also at least 10x more timely help for the needy!
I too have been wondering how best to assist say with 4 bitcoins and till I read this going to use the BitMe address because apparently that is going directly to the Philippines Red Cross, the Red Cross being an organisation who I would guess vet very carefully how money is spent given the loss of its reputation would be disastrous.

But I'll hold for a few more days if there are other suggestions as to how it could be used more effectively.

I was wondering what scale we were talking. If we were just talking one or two (or up to a several at most) donations, I would arrange it so you send directly to the needy I know of. If we are talking more, I need to outsource that compilation of names of the needy.

In my opinion is more effective for each of you to send directly to names of needy, than a individual middle man which might be corrupt. Although Red Cross is not likely corrupt but I don't know if they can service those in the far flung areas.

The person receiving only needs to have any sort of photo id, even a school id often works. Thus it is important the localbitcoins buyer of BTC, sends the LBC (local money transfer agent) control # only the intended recipient.

If it is only you two, I can send you some recipient names with their stories and their contact cell phone numbers which you can pass on to the localbitcoins buyer you choose in Manila. Some of them can do the LBC transfers.

Let me know as I need to ask those needy if they agree for me to provide their names and cell numbers. Note a cell phone costs as low as $8 here, so don't see that as sign of great wealth. Nor can you judge by non-tattered clothing as Okie-Okia (used clothing sent as donations not just for the typhoon e.g. your Salvation Army excess ends up over here ditto from Japan, Korea, etc) can be purchased here for $0.50 to $1 per item.

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December 04, 2013, 05:06:05 PM
 #130

I have sent separate PMs to rpietila and thoughtfan. I provided 2 suggested needy recipients to rpietila and provided their contact info and their stories. Ditto for 4 other suggested needy recipients for thoughtfan. If thoughtfan needs more, I am searching for a few more who are even more desperate than the ones I provided already.

By knowing the stories of whom you are sending to, you know with confidence how your funds will be applied. The Red Cross Philippines is probably more on severe crisis mitigation such as running community tents and passing out cup of noodles. The PRC chairman Richard Gordon is the former head of the Subic Bay Economic Zone, where he took over what the US Navy had left behind in 1991. Whereas I am providing you the opportunity to put families back in their homes so they can stabilize their lives.

Thank you to these two guys. I can assure you the funds will not go to waste. I put my reputation on the line. Both of those guys know my real name now.

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December 04, 2013, 07:34:37 PM
 #131

I will attend to this matter asap. Thank you.
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December 04, 2013, 10:16:43 PM
 #132

I have sent separate PMs to rpietila and thoughtfan. I provided 2 suggested needy recipients to rpietila and provided their contact info and their stories. Ditto for 4 other suggested needy recipients for thoughtfan. If thoughtfan needs more, I am searching for a few more who are even more desperate than the ones I provided already.

By knowing the stories of whom you are sending to, you know with confidence how your funds will be applied. The Red Cross Philippines is probably more on severe crisis mitigation such as running community tents and passing out cup of noodles. The PRC chairman Richard Gordon is the former head of the Subic Bay Economic Zone, where he took over what the US Navy had left behind in 1991. Whereas I am providing you the opportunity to put families back in their homes so they can stabilize their lives.

Thank you to these two guys. I can assure you the funds will not go to waste. I put my reputation on the line. Both of those guys know my real name now.

Thank you AnonyMint for going to the lengths you have to find individuals who would benefit from part of the money I am intending to give.  It may seem to some readers that I am bragging in the fact of giving by writing as I am in this thread but it is not the case.  I am writing partially because it helps me organise my thoughts, partially as a public response to AnonyMint and partially so that others may consider options if they are in half a mind to do likewise.

 It is not an easy decision but not one from which I will baulk, nor will I use the difficulty as an excuse to procrastinate with this.  It is good to hear reassuring words regarding the likely integrity and likely use should I send to the Philippines Red Cross.  Some will certainly go that way.  But I also like the idea of helping 'put families back in their homes so they can stablize their lives'.  One of the reasons I'm hesitant to follow through with your suggestions is despite what you say I don't 'know with confidence how my funds will be applied'.  I only have your word and I don't know you.  In fact, until I wanted to see what Rpietila was responding to I'd had you on ignore since I tired of your condescending posts and your refusal to believe you have anything to learn from others here.  Yet I recognise that arrogance* and dishonesty are two unrelated character traits and I have yet to see any indications in anything I've read of yours to date that would imply I ought to question your integrity.

I need time to think this through, not only the likelihood of the money getting where it is intended but of the recipients making good use of it.  You mention at the top you are searching for some who are 'even more desperate' than those you already provided.  However, as far as assisting the most desperate is concerned, that is what my PRC donation is for.  Desperate people don't always make the most rational decisions.  The higher value for me for money going direct to individuals is their likelihood of using it wisely, the likelihood of their being able to negotiate well for the materials they need and manage the assistance from neighbours well (or pay effective labour) to accomplish what they need to enable them to begin to rebuild their lives.  I am not saying I won't assist those whose names and stories you've provided already and I am not intending to come over as cold-hearted but there is also a risk to the recipient if they are in a desperate state in handing them a lump of money that they be taken advantage of by the unscrupulous.

Again, thank you for giving me food for thought and options.  I felt a little awkward that you mentioned to potential recipients someone might be prepared to help them when I was only making initial enquiries as to how this might work.  And the down side of me wanting to be careful if you are going back asking questions to ascertain their likely suitability is the risk it's going to come over as me wanting people to pass a test or jump through hoops to get assistance.  I hope you understand this is not what I intend and would appreciate you trying to understand where I'm coming from with my concerns.  I would like to move this forward quickly and am grateful for your information from the ground.

I should also maybe mention as an atheist that the fact of someone being a Christian or praying for me to assist has no bearing at all on my decision.

* I'm not wanting to throw the lengths you've gone to in putting this plan together back in your face by writing about you as harshly as I am, just giving you the context in which I need to make this decision.

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December 04, 2013, 10:52:45 PM
 #133

I have received 180mBTC from an anonymous donor to be used in the same manner.
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December 05, 2013, 08:37:26 AM
 #134

rpietila, that 188mBTC would be helpful for someone in northern Cebu who was wiped out I wrote about to thoughtfan, but didn't yet have the confirmed info for which name to send to. Will try to call them today.

thoughtfan, let me know if you decide to proceed and would like some photo evidence of the repairs made. If not, perhaps there will be others interested. Otherwise I will have to give, since they will be disappointed since I already asked them.

You have their numbers, you can call if you want. I am confirming now what is real situation of the person who may or may not receive support from another person. Will PM you once I confirm what is the definitive situation. Had been trying to contact that person past days, yet I always ended up calling late at night and they were asleep. I am so hectically busy.

Please don't feel obligated. Yet I am sure you will get a big thanks for them if you do. I am confident others will also want to help. And I can probably handle it if you don't. Not as rich as I was for the moment.

I would endeavor to ask each recipient you chose to take before and after photos if that will make you feel more certain about the efficacy. And perhaps a photo with entire clan and sack(s) of rice purchased. As for nutrients in addition to the carbohydrates, there are vegetables and root crops that grow wild as well as planted and is best consumed fresh. The rice is the major need in addition to the shelter from the rain.

When I say "christian" what this imparts is that they have a good attitude and a desire to achieve and be responsible. Filipinos are never christians in the way that westerners are, e.g. they would never kill for the church (Inquisition, Puritan burnings at-stake, etc), although I wouldn't put it past some of the fanatical non-christian (reject Jesus as a Son) cults such as Iglesia Ng Christo and tell their members that their human founder was not human but rather an angel and very obsessed, glassy-eyed members. They morph everything to their primary tribal values which are family and clan. They do believe God will protect them and thus they shouldn't fret over things. I can mention global crisis to them, and they say "I've always been crisis". They tend to brush aside all negative thoughts and focus on the positive. When I say a very strong Christian, it means you won't be able to tempt them to try drugs, disrespect their parents, homosexual sex or other aberrations from a normal patriarchal family unit. So it is really meaning they are very attuned to the historically successful definition of the family unit. As a westerner, you may or may not view gay marriage compassionately, and this is not comment on that. It is just a comment on what works and doesn't work in this old world agrarian culture. That same filipina who wouldn't dare do homosexuality, would also have a best friend who is a male gay. Filipinos are very accepting of others. Of course this culture is under attack in the big cities and the media. Pornography has spread in the universities on the cell phones. The middle class in the Philippines is well integrated into the western media.

In short, an atheist westerner can most often be an upstanding person. An atheist filipino is most often someone who has lost their way, e.g. drugs, crime, etc.. It is not a comment on atheism. It is a reflection of the reality of the culture here. Now this changes a lot in the big city of Manila. I am referring to the hinterlands, where this typhoon hit.

I do sympathize with your valid feeling about the animosity I have created. I am treating my opinion about BTC as orthogonal to the utility of BTC in the present. Phenomena are not B&W and BTC can be both useful while also being arguably other things too. The future will resolve those opinions. Also it might be some solace to know that I will shut up out of necessity that a talking programmer isn't programming. Your opinion of BTC has enabled you to have more wealth as measured in dollars than I do, thus being able to give where I wanted to, is sign of my temporary "failure". I have humbly subsumed my ego for the present. My pride wasn't going to help these people.

I will assure you this in contrast to the acerbic tone I guess results from the back-and-forth when someone shakes the Bitcoin applecart. Anything I do w.r.t. to Bitcoin will be for the better of humanity. If that is ever not the case, please call me in out in public and drag my name through the mud. My opinion is sincere, whether it is correct or not is to be seen. I am not incapable of being cordial. The situation will dictate the level of stress, urgency, mutual (mis-)understandings, etc..

As for the very desperate, I gave a (to remain anonymous) suggested recipient to rpietila who was not hit by the typhoon, yet is 8 months pregnant, surviving off of vegetables planted herself (not always money for rice), and supporting and educating her 10 younger siblings alone, as her father died and her mother took off with another man. This lady may have a higher IQ than me (maybe I was just tired from travel/sick the one time I met her yet I couldn't keep up her witty topics, more focused in literature) and she graduated last year from university as a teacher with honors. She just passed the board exam, so she will be able to work after she delivers and the newborn is old enough to be watched by a neighbor. I was also so proud of her to not abort. A foreigner bf who had been supporting her college left her hanging (with 6 months remaining so she almost had to quit school) which adds to my desire to help her so she won't think all foreigners are like that. I know with complete confidence any funds she receives will go to food to keep the situation stable until I am rich enough to rescue her entirely until she can get back on her feet. Note she and I are not compatible as anything more than friends (I'm analytical like quiet and she loves Shakespeare and noisy classroom interaction), but how can I deny her great attitude to take over as the parent of her cute (and smart) siblings.

I can promise you I haven't given you any suggested recipients who will get drunk or otherwise waste the money and have "middle finger" type attitudes. I've been over here more or less since 1991, so I can read their attitudes very well. I know immediately the types who are irresponsible in that way of handing it to a brother to buy Red Horse.

There is really not much danger of the unscrupulous taking advantage. Filipinas are extremely wise to that. They are exposed to such threats from birth. When money is sent by LBC (or the other pawnshop money transfer outfit), then they will not release the money except to the person who has a photo id matching the name. Also they will not release without the control #, which I instructed should only be sent to the recipient via SMS message. Also you need to let me know if you want the recipients to know who you are or even your name. I was going to get to that if you sent. It is your choice.

Most (some) filipinas (the females especially) are very wise how they allocate money when they have been facing frequent hardship. Of course there are those (most because it is in their culture) who have a hole in their pocket and want to always enjoy their money. But this is the case for those who are not facing existential hardships.

Also I have learned that people who live in congested squatter communities are much more prone to waste money. This is because they don't really have to fear existential threats because the group is all around them. And they identify themselves with the group and thus it is one continuous drunken party in these squalor communities. Whereas the names I have given you are the conservative types who live in the hinterland farms and small villages. These are the ones who grow up with good values and a desire to achieve. You will find the best scholars in the Philippines often come from the poor farming families.

The ones I have given you have fallen into hardship, usually it is because of a loss of the father. That is the most frequent cause. And the typhoon exacerbated it. Or just poverty because of uneducated parents and living far from the big city. I gave you one (N.J.) where her family is intact but the father is very old and the family was wiped out by the typhoon.

When I said search for more desperate, I mean I had some at least 2 contacts last year who live where the eye passed along the coast of Samar. I hadn't tried to contact them yet, because frankly I've been overloaded with tasks.

P.S. rpietila knows of me for several years. We used to do deals over the phone. And I believe we shared about our personal lives to some extent. I suspect he is somewhat shell shocked at the way I have spoken out in this forum, because I didn't talk that way on the phone with him before. Yet he had an example of me dominating another silver investment forum in 2006. All I can say, is I am different in person and on the phone than I am in written forums. Perhaps it is the way any one (of 1000s) can misunderstand and the conversation devolves because of that lack of personal interaction. I am Cancer so normally I can feel what another person is feeling with voice, but this seems to get lost in the interaction on the forums.

I was hesitant about getting involved in this, because see how it becomes a time sink.

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December 05, 2013, 09:26:17 AM
 #135

Thanks for your comprehensive reply AnonyMint,

I will go forward with this though I may postpone to see if the present crash recovers (or to see where it settles) first.  Unfortunately my timing was shit because I finally made my 2btc bitme donation this morning less than half an hour before the price began to crash so depending on how automated and quick their conversion is I suspect it will be far less effective donation than it would have been yesterday!

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December 05, 2013, 09:33:11 AM
 #136

Did the price crash? Shows how overloaded I am. Hopefully recover quickly.

I elaborated about the Christian aspect.

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December 05, 2013, 10:44:18 AM
 #137

P.S. rpietila knows of me for several years. We used to do deals over the phone. And I believe we shared about our personal lives to some extent. I suspect he is somewhat shell shocked at the way I have spoken out in this forum, because I didn't talk that way on the phone with him before. Yet he had an example of me dominating another silver investment forum in 2006. All I can say, is I am different in person and on the phone than I am in written forums. Perhaps it is the way any one (of 1000s) can misunderstand and the conversation devolves because of that lack of personal interaction. I am Cancer so normally I can feel what another person is feeling with voice, but this seems to get lost in the interaction on the forums.

It is complex to try to understand what Risto and I are going through right now. We haven't spoken on the phone lately (I assume not because we don't want to, just both too busy, and it isn't the right time because the disagreement can't be resolved by talking only by time and outcome). I seemed to have gotten disappointed that he would adopt what I feel is a very big danger to humanity. And he seems to think it is a big solution. Although I am not 100% sure what he thinks. I suspect he and I both hold some of our private cards close to our chest (so no one can see). This will sort itself out in time. He may be thinking that I disavow capitalism to some extent. I think it is too complex to explain why that is not the case. The most efficient (it seems) is to let it all become clear with the outcome.

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December 06, 2013, 05:21:46 AM
 #138

These are not the photos I am promising which will still be forthcoming.

I'll let Risto decide if he announces anything on what has transpired since last posts on the charity. Just want to add that north Cebu was hit hard too and I am finding needy there.

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/352275-medellin-cebu-province-no-food-or-water-mayor-appeals-for-help-after-typhoon-haiyan/?photo=2





Also finding more needy on Leyte and Samar, where you can see even the Nipa that they normally build grass roofs with is mostly blown away from the surrounding vegetation. The mountains you see in the distance would normally not be denuded in the tropics, they should be jungle.

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/355442-tolosa-leyte-video-and-photos-show-heavy-damage-from-haiyan/?photo=1


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December 06, 2013, 05:59:50 AM
 #139

I also have a very close friend in Manilla who would happily help to assist with disbursing some aid in the area. If anybody would like feel free to PM me and I will connect you directly with him.

We were students together in Japan and he is a very reliable person. I will personally reimburse any BTC sent to him that aren't proven to be used for good.

Great work rpietila

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December 06, 2013, 11:04:00 AM
 #140

I have confirmed the international aid is reaching the Carigara area in between Tacloban and Ormoc. That is the main national highway running down the west side of Samar and Leyte. Concrete road I think originally built by Imelda Marcos. One family declined assistance, as they have a business and savings and have already begun rebuilding. I asked about needy in that area, and they said the people there were able to handle their own in combination with the international aid. They told me Tacloban was becoming a ghost town, not sure if that is reliable as if they've been to Tacloban or just what they hear or an exaggeration.

So it appears law & order exists in some areas. The reports I get show the problem is more on building housing. Some people have the funds to do so, and others don't. This lack of housing ranges as far away as those still suffering from the Bohol earthquake and even in Agusan and Mati Oriental, Mindanao from that freak strong typhoon Pablo (aka Bopha) Dec. 2012 since that southernly area of Mindanao hadn't been hit by a strong typhoon in decades (normally typhoons don't come that far south). The Visayas and Mindanao have been pounded with Sendong (which overflowed the Cagayan river washing away communities along to river in the middle of the night), then Pablo, then the Bohol earthquake that created new cliffs even, and then perhaps the strongest typhoon ever to make landfall Yolanda.

I am wondering why aid wouldn't reach Naval, Biliran since as far as I know, there is a bridge going there from mainland where Tacloban is.

Some (many perhaps) of the people in Biliran are too poor to rebuild their houses. I have two confirmations of this so far.

Edit: My contact clarified that there is still a crisis in food in Naval notwithstanding any aid reaching there.

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December 06, 2013, 01:17:13 PM
 #141

Ah I finally made contact with someone on eastern side of Samar that the typhoon hit first. I mean it was really bad over there, I saw photos of entire towns gone and even the concrete coastal road broken to pieces.

The family was not contactable by cell phone, yet I received a reply in facebook as follows.

Quote
oh yes,.my family was really affected by the super typhoon and we don't know how to start again,.our house was  damaged and now we only slept in a tent.
If you have something to help, I will be much greatful.
because its really hard for us to start all over again.
I will send you pictures of our damaged house.
Thank you very much.

I'm sharing some, so others can see this is sincere. Also just in case I made any mistake upthread about the real state-of-affairs on the ground, to show it is not intentional. I am collecting information.


Follow up from Catbalogan, Samar, so not on the east side instead 50 km north of Taclocan. I was mistaken. So don't expect the damage to be as bad as I described above. Also appears their house is concrete so it mostly survived other than the roof.

Quote
There is no phone connection here for how many days but now, thank God it was brought back.
Our roof was completely gone, it was taken away by the strong wind.
our windows are broken and also our door.
Yes, some of the international aid was brought to us, but some are not. Honestly, foods are not not enough. And sardines are mostly brought to us.
The food here are so expensive and there was a panic buying in our place. And we don't have sufficient money to buy those necessities for us.
oh yes, I will surely take photos of whatever I will buy from that money.
for now, I will send you the picture of our house.
Thank you very much for the help.



And from Naval, Biliran a different contact and the 3rd confirmation of the lack of aid reaching there:

Quote
...biliran leyte?
Our town is 2 hours away from tacloban... we are just a little disappointed coz the relief and all helped coming from different countries never arrive here...

I actually have few photos here... just a neighbors house totally wrecked


From Bogo, Cebu:

Quote
Hi good evening. Im lowbat a while ago. Our house is fall down very damage no roof. Only the room where we sleep has left but the roof also damage. The rain come inside the room. Our door now is the window bec. The real door is damage danger to get inside thats why we use the window as the door.

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December 06, 2013, 09:34:19 PM
 #142

Some people are in actual dire straits, lost their houses, etc. Meanwhile we had a nice flash-goxx-crash where pros including me made a nice chunk of money. It is quite ironic, to think of it. I will therefore not go into details, just express my satisfaction of the result of trading.

AnonyMint has accepted the responsibility of compiling the lists of needy people and sending the BTC to them. I will safekeep some of the donations before the recipient is assigned. We have enough money at present and do not want people to give us more, it goes against the principle of P2P helping.
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December 07, 2013, 05:11:05 AM
 #143

Just woke and ready to convert to pesos, but the price is $770.

Any one willing to offer a trading opinion (see linked poll)? Should I rush to convert now or wait it out? Best to comment there at the linked thread. Appears the votes are split 3 ways between all possible outcomes.

Googling Bitcoin price, shows Greenspace said something about it being a bubble and no intrinsic value. Does this remove some resolve of the bulls or should I just wait for them to scoop up the panic sells of the weak hands?

Anonymint, I am not qualified to give trading opinion. I will leave it to more capable members of the forum. However, the sell off is not due to the Greenspan comments, but due to the recent regulations in China.
http://fr.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1s5hzl/my_human_translation_of_the_china_regulation/
http://fr.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1s8y6b/the_circlejerking_here_is_out_of_hand_my_thoughts/
(So, you might want to reword your poll or create new one).
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December 07, 2013, 06:25:39 AM
 #144

I have corrected myself on that. Thanks. And I have concluded that the China news is very bullish. See the linked post.

Edit: I created a poll to ask if my interpretation of the recent China news is correct.

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December 07, 2013, 10:36:25 AM
 #145

As soon as I reversed the previous bearish call (below), the market decides to turn down, quite much in a sense that I anticipated, but with the wrong timing. Timing is very hard to get right, therefore it is good to be prepared, should any of the possible scenarios happen (and even some of the impossible).

In the grand scheme of (my) things, some may remember that I sold at an average price of 0.672 in November, and just calculated the average buyback so far is 0.745. If a serious dip follows, I will be ahead Smiley Most of the money is still not committed, and the volatility is giving good arbitrage/swingtrade opportunities.

Now is perhaps a good time to visit the long-term trend thread, pointing that since December target is only 0.428, we might possibly have lots of downside left. The support levels are around 0.400-0.600 and 0.400. What I can say with reasonable certainty is that 0.300 will hold. It depends on individual circumstances, how much to buy and at what level. I have been buying ever since I turned bull at around 1.100, bought a lot in 0.800 when it seemed to be the low point, am buying now, and will be buying all the way down.

I don't believe anything has happened that warrants a panic sell now. But if you have 100% of your wealth in bitcoin, I suggest to take it to 80-95% anyway and now is as good a time to sell as any.

In times of high volatility, if you do not have a compelling reason to trade, don't. Our gains come from your pockets. If you have a reason, do a minimum of several hours of excelwork, and make yourself a trading strategy. Then stick to it - teach yourself to think that you win if you follow your strategy, irrespective of where the price goes. Because it is true.

My trading strategy is currently such that there are major fluctuations in relative prices in BTC China and Bitstamp. I chart them and analyze them and have both fiat and bitcoins in both exchanges. I sell in China (buy back BS) when it goes like 10% ahead. When it goes back to 0%, I reverse.

Another is modest daytrading - increase short term position when price is extended to the downside, and sell when it has bounced. Or other way round.

Third is position management. Like now bitcoin price is down by almost -50%, surely I will increase its share in my trading accounts. But even this I do according to a predetermined plan that covers all bitcoin prices from zero to infinity. When I woke up, I saw that bitcoin was at 0.600 instead of 0.820 which was the last before my going to sleep. I just checked that I need to buy 400 bitcoins to balance it. No emotion. I even took a shower first and saw that price had rebounded to 0.640. You never know, it could have gone down as well.


Today was a really intense day. I turned bear. That does not happen often, and there is always the chance to be wrong. If you want to reap the juiciest rewards, you have to act before the others. Then you better bear the uncertainty.

During the bubble top, BTC China had a maximum of 75% premium over Bitstamp. I set myself to explore this opportunity, whether it is viable to open an account there and sell bitcoins, even though the chances of receiving fiat currency in return are slim (CNY has currency controls and I don't have many links to Chinese banks). I decided that the arbitrage opportunity even without the fiat exit is good enough reason to go China, and opened the account.

During the day I bought 10 million CNY, which kind of feels funny. (Until Tuesday I had had no plans to play in China.) In addition I sold coins at Bitstamp, which rose higher than I expected a few hours ago, providing an opportunity.

The following 48 hours are most critical concerning the bubble/no-bubble issue. If we fail to surpass yesterday's highs, and make even lower highs (and potentially lower lows), then this was indeed a bubble, and it will get weeks to sort it out, with the opportunity to buy at $300s at some point(s).

In the complementary scenario, highs are broken and/or flashcrashes abate, we enjoy a week or so of high consolidation ($500 or over) before assaulting new highs. This is a possibility, but I stick to my evaluation that it is less probable than bubblepop. I have written extensively in Wall Observer about the matter. Perhaps open a new thread inspired by SlipperySlope's bubble collapse journal.

There are so many things that can happen but have not yet happened. DDoS, hacks, scams, bubblepop articles, REAL dumps, etc. If we evade all this and happily continue up despite that we are already 1.8x the trendline, I am gladly wrong.

In this case, somebody help me how to spend the ¥10M...  Grin


To whom it may concern: The trades revealed in the public diary have been executed on behalf of numerous entities in multiple jurisdictions. As such, they do not correspond to the ownership, holding, position or change thereof, or realizing of taxable or tax-deductible gains/losses or income of any natural or corporate Person.
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December 07, 2013, 12:42:50 PM
 #146

Meanwhile we had a nice flash-goxx-crash where pros including me made a nice chunk of money.
You will have to explain that, because all your price predictions have been consistently wrong.

You will have to listen, and understand. You know all of this from beforehand but perhaps the understanding part requires some thought.

A. Total position is 10M USD (10k BTC), and its standard allocation is 80% bitcoins, 20% other. In practice about half of "other" is in different exchanges as fiat position.

B. "Making money" is defined that the amount of either of both of the components of Total position increases. Note: amount, not "value".

C. Holding does not "make money" because of the definition above. If USDBTC rises, there is no gain, neither is there a loss if it goes down, provided that the total position is allocated 80/20.

D. Of the possible trading strategies, they make money as follows:

- Allocation. The percentage of "other" in portfolio can be temporarily set to 10-30% to take advantage of the mispricing of the general market. Easiest way to know if you have gained is after resetting the percentages. These trades last days or weeks for me. More BTC -> win.

- Arbitrage. Explained in above posts. After you have made the total of 4 trades with the coins and they are sitting in their original order, you can count the gains. I normally price the gains in USD (ie. trade with fixed amount of BTC).

- Daytrading. Taking positions in smaller intraday moves, with the intention of closing the trade in a few minutes/hours. I normally price the gains in USD.


Now, everything else in your talking just reveals that you don't think at all like me. If the wallobserver frequents actually believe that guessing the future price, and taking on/off action with your whole position of BTC2 is a road to riches, I don't know if they can be helped.

Out of context nothing is understandable, and any reasonably advanced trading plan is indistinguishable from magic. Thank you, good bye Smiley
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December 07, 2013, 02:49:21 PM
 #147

Rpeitila, how do you think this big drop effects bitcoins long time price projections? Is it good that we get a cooling of the price or is it bad that the bears get fuel on their fires about bitcoin volatility being so large? Also i know you mentioned this whole China thing being slightly bullish could you care to elaborate on that?

I think shorter term the sentiment is now damaged so that 0.800 is resistance, and people will take a look at the fact that we are still 2x the trend.

Mid-term I don't believe it will affect much. Everybody knows already that bitcoin cannot be tamed. Even if we go to 0.370, it is only -70% from the ATH, which means that the volatility in large crashes is decreasing.

Longer term it has no effect, except to keep us closer the average trend of 12x per year instead of 100x it was starting to look already Smiley

Got your link through from the Wall, and wanted to thank you for that; but, I have been reading your stuff for months-- it's quite fascinating to take a broader look at this marvel. Trading it, on the other hand, is like going to war, and I've learned a lot from this first mega wave (parabolic uptick...).

I'm not sure exactly where I think resistance levels are anymore, so glad to see some cogitation on it. Looking forward to cheap coins below the 'trend' line (the big one).  Grin

Looking forward to a tour of your castle, if you choose to go in that direction-- personally, I just want land and a garden big enough to provide.  Wink

Someday, I will have an avatar, maybe.
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December 07, 2013, 06:32:27 PM
 #148

Sure, every time you call a top or a bottom or you disclose if you are selling or buying you get it wrong, but them you give a pompous but empty explanation about how you are making money day trading,

Since I obviously cannot make one of the most rational minds in the wallobserver (you) to understand how I can actually make money almost every time I trade, with little or no risk, and despite the way the price goes (note: others have differing strategies that they employ and I have not even tried), I will kindly have to ask you to put me on ignore Smiley

Most of the wall observer is rubbish way below my level, still you nitpick on my bragging, because all individual trades are not disclosed, to make sure that money was indeed made.

When otoh I do disclose the transaction data, everyone is quiet.

LOL I am like the 10th largest Bitcoin trader in the World based on that I accounted for 0.53% of the volume. Greetings, Mom!  Grin

Now, go away. Don't you have anything else to do?

I believe you Rpietila.  I also am humbly aware that there are some people on this board, such as both you and Rampion, that are smarter than I am and better at predicting the movement of the market and making wise decisions based on these things.  I, realizing that I suck at that, just need to buy and hold.  It is the best strategy for "Dummies."   Grin  So far it has worked well.  Granted there is part of me that wishes I could be good at it and take advantage of the ups and downs to increase the amount of coins we have, but not everyone is capable of doing that effectively.  In fact, most can't do it or try and fail!  That is probably why it is hard for some to believe you are so successful at it!

BitChicksHusband is really excited about your plan for cashing out too and has it all charted out and seems like a really great way to take advantage of our position in the future.  It just requires patience at this point, especially as "holders."

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December 07, 2013, 07:25:42 PM
 #149

Granted there is part of me that wishes I could be good at it and take advantage of the ups and downs to increase the amount of coins we have, but not everyone is capable of doing that effectively.  In fact, most can't do it or try and fail!  That is probably why it is hard for some to believe you are so successful at it!

I aim to net at least 3% (and seldom get more than 12%) per successful trade. Let's say the average realized gain is 5%. If I manage to employ 200,000mBTC per trade, the gain is 10,000mBTC. It takes a few hours of active work. I am not especially good at it, but I know math, I have the coins and I have the time and freedom.

Can you now see why I did a same-day attack to China in Nov 19th, after seeing that 1. the coins were selling for 50% higher there, 2. the price had just overshot and was 3. crashing everywhere, and 4. I was too heavy on coins due to not selling during the whole runup? Properly executed, this was a literally million dollar profit deal opportunity, 100 times bigger than the staple.

If only I had managed to get the account right with the first try, I would have gotten an average of 0.819 exit point compared to 0.672 a day later.

I am so big and intelligent that I don't need to brag. The information here is disclosed so that prospective traders can take heed. I have received several exhortations and even warnings via PM to not tell so openly about the ways to make money, as opposed to be fleeced.

I think most of us (99%) should not have any intention to make money with bitcoin, just to keep the bitcoins that they have and add to the position.
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December 07, 2013, 07:34:27 PM
 #150

Risto, I don't see why you have to delete the honest and completely on topic critics to your price predictions, to then quote selectively only a small part of them.

I appreciate a lot many of your posts - and when I agree with you, I agree publicly. On the other side, I very much doubt of your "I'm making a lot of money by trading" brags because they are not supported by your posts, on the contrary they are invalidated by your public calls. I try to keep my critics constructive, and I try to point out the contradictions in your discourse to help both you to adjust it and the newcomers to don't get impressed at first sight and look better. I believe this adds value to the board and that it's completely on topic in a thread that is precisely about "Risto Pietila" and his performance.

Finally, it's kinda discouraging to have longish posts like the two I just wrote in this thread ruthlessly deleted. Please remember that precisely that kind of attitude made people to create "alt" threads about you which were mostly pure mockery.

Let's try to keep it civil and not repeat past mistakes.

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December 07, 2013, 07:38:05 PM
 #151

I only see 2 possible modes of failure in rpietila's strategy:

1. If his trading gains are outpaced by the appreciation of BTC relative to his non-BTC proportion.

2. BTC collapses in price forever and he tries to trade it all the way down instead of having a stop-loss.

1. is not a failure mode, it is a feature Smiley I don't think that I can outpace bitcoin's appreciation with my fiat part, but the fiat part gives diversification against failure of bitcoin, and trading earns higher APR than a current account still.

2. It is true I never use a stop loss, because I never initiate trades that would need to be "stopped". If the short-term position goes against me, I may close it if I am trading. When I am sleeping, I will just let it run, because it will balance out with another position (a leg of arbitrage for instance) later, or with the overall 80/20 allocation if nothing else. At times I augment all trades that I have "in mind" to a complete position sheet and cancel the contradicting ones.

I perhaps should fix that I will also use a SSS-style permanent rake, which is taken out of exchanges and converted to other asset classes and never returned to crypto. (In practice this is the case already, but it's not part of the model yet.)

(Edited for 2.)
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December 07, 2013, 09:06:22 PM
 #152

Rampion, you are missing the point that his trades don't apply to your concept of what a winning trade means. He has a holistic trading strategy across multiple asset classes, exchanges, metrics, and models.

Thus your comments are pure noise and slanderous, unless you are simply making the point that his trading strategy doesn't apply to the simple trader who is only in or out of BTC-- which would be a correct observation.

I don't think you did this intentionally. You apparently just didn't realize.

Edit: picking a few trades and trying to analyze if his strategy is succeeding is analogous to tracking a few ants and trying to declare you know what the colony is doing.

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December 07, 2013, 09:40:46 PM
 #153

P.S. You continue to provide evidence that without decentralized (no one can control) debasement, capital moves from the 97% to 3% without limit until the 97% are complete slaves. Note I don't consider "tax" to be an alternative, since it too ends up with the 3%.

It could be that the 3% are able to increase their capital, but how come does that mean that all the others would end up being slaves?

If I traded with 20,000mBTC, the % increase would be much bigger because all trades would be 100% of position. So the 97% are in better relative position to increase their wealth, but the problem is that they don't know how to do it and lose money. Like I said, I believe 99% fare better using the SSS strategy with "accumulation" phase, "purchasing power and share of portfolio gaining" phase and "divestation/diversification" phase.

I have tried to provide insights to professional trading to everyone who's willing to listen. WHILE EXPRESSLY SAYING THAT IS NOT FOR YOU IN MOST CASES. What more can I do? Smiley
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December 08, 2013, 04:02:02 AM
 #154

Here are example photos I am receiving from Naval and these are some of the families we are helping. Thank you to those who donated.

Note allocating keeping in mind how self-sufficient filipinos are and not spoiling what they can do on their own. This requires considerable analysis and fact checking. Time consuming.










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December 08, 2013, 04:57:14 PM
 #155

@rpietila: Thank you for sharing your insights & wisdom here... - i appreciate a lot. Found your "sss-strategy" only just recently and now also the trading-strategies here in this thread.

For me it feels like beeing one of those, for whom you've written all that. Can understand the ideas behind, even had similar thoughts somehow, but not as clear and detailed as you expressed it, and moreover, you show the way how to do such things. last spring e.g. i already thought about that it should be best to trade the way, that both sides of the coin has to go up... - but somehow could not find a real system in it and even thought it is just some wish-thinking. but your description makes it clear, that it is not only possible, but in fact the only senseful way to call it "make money". to only speculate on one side of the coin and the xchange-rate has, compared to your modell, not much to do with "making money", more with prophecy or hoping or guessing or feeling... hoping to find the "right moment" a.s.o. ... just too much wish-thinking.

it was such a delight and something made *booom* and *click* in my head, when you made it clear, that "making money" is about increase the *amount* of coins on both sides (and not only some "value in the head"). made it clear, that its a big illusion to only concentrate on the virtual values based on current rates. they are not real, here, now. real is only, whats on the table... on both sides. everything else is only luck in exchange-rates. it could change every moment.

and it does absolutely not count to "guess" the "perfect right moment", but just to see on the end of the day, if there is more money now, or less. e.g. selling at 1200 in this model is not "better" then selling at 800. and buying at 300 ist not better then buying on 600. its just about selling highter then buying, finish. you showed that clearly, and yes, nobody has a time-machine, this whole thinking about "right moments" is just rubbish and depends only on luck and nothing else. but yours is mathematics. wonderful.

after reading you, i came to see, that up to now i even never did real trade... it was just more like roulette i played. thank you for that. my mind was blanked after reading some of your statements... just so awesome true. and does not fit much to "normal trading style". its much more about strategy. not even to have the "right" strategy (as i thought before one must have), but to have at least ANY (senseful) strategy and to hold onto it. so to say, "making money" out of strategy, and not out of luck.

So... thanks again... i enjoy reading you ... you help me finding a total new approach into all that (at least for me it is new; as one said: much more holistic.... - it needs a different kind of thinking, to really "get it". not just a little adjustement, but empy the mind out and look completely new on that, from a totally new viewpoint. wonderful !)

theEd

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December 08, 2013, 05:52:55 PM
 #156

also i'd be more interested to know how you manage to move capital out of chinese exchanges since it's not that easy due to strict capital controls towards foreigners

Wouldn't buying BTC solve that?

You say his trading strategy is obvious and then it seems you don't realize he doesn't necessarily have to move CNY out of China if he was able to lower cash position else where.

selling BTC with a markup to newcomers that are looking to buy and understand BTC quickly and without going through an exchange or the usual routes.

Where did you get that from?

Seems to me he provides liquidity on exchanges and else where. All of his models such as the fix he used for his silver business was about providing liquidity. Liquidity is often more important than price.

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December 08, 2013, 06:23:21 PM
 #157

also i'd be more interested to know how you manage to move capital out of chinese exchanges since it's not that easy due to strict capital controls towards foreigners

Wouldn't buying BTC solve that?

You say his trading strategy is obvious and then it seems you don't realize he doesn't necessarily have to move CNY out of China if he was able to lower cash position else where.

Then he is not doing arbitrage in China because the only way to do arbitrage is to buy low and sell higher, and given that BTCChina is consistently higher the way to do arbitrage is buying on stamp - selling on BTCChina - rinse and repeat.

To be able to do arbitrage you must be able to quickly move between exchanges both currencies: BTC and fiat. That's extremely difficult (at best), and that's the reason why such spreads exist.

there are just different stages....

stage 1: putting up an amount of btc AND fiat on both exchanges .... (sending btc, wait for good price, selling some part, have btc+fiat and then: wait) (stage 1 can be go on and repeatet "for ever" - no closure needed)

stage 2: waiting for a moment, where arbitrage (EVEN A SINGLE ONE) can be done (e.g. way higher price in china then on bitstamp) -> doing the deals (meaning that after doing so, you have in sum of both exchanges now same amount of e.g. btc, but more fiat, or other way around. its not an "ongoing arbitrage" like you are maybe thinking of...)

stage 3: waiting again (even for some days!) where btc is more down in china then on stage 1.... and buying back btc there. (re-adjusting)

you can even transfer then "fiat" between china and stamp via btc on a day where the price is almost close to each other (there are moments like that).

(and anyway, all of that was described by rpietila already in this thread ... - i did already similar things just for the fun of it in spring this year... with different exchanges... but only with low one-digit-bitcoin-values, cause i dont have a higher budget... ;-) - ).

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December 08, 2013, 06:25:53 PM
 #158

As markup over elsewhere on BTC China decreases he can buy BTC there and sell BTC else where. It doesn't matter if he is buying at a higher or lower price than he sold on BTC China.

Yeah I would probably be richer had a pursued what Risto did since time I met him. But it doesn't fit my personality nor my interests nor my venue nor my preferred flexible schedule.

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December 08, 2013, 06:34:42 PM
 #159

When otoh I do disclose the transaction data, everyone is quiet.

How much do you make per hour? If it is a reasonable $25, your work should be worth $100 per hour to your employer considering overhead and such. Would you waste your employer's time talking to people who:

A. could understand if they took the time to read again, and then think some
B. (even worse) could not understand regardless.

When you think of the value of your time, certainly not. You could be fired for wasting your time like that.

Now, I did an allnighter. 12 hours trading session, in which I traded as follows:

My trading strategy is currently such that there are major fluctuations in relative prices in BTC China and Bitstamp. I chart them and analyze them and have both fiat and bitcoins in both exchanges. I sell in China (buy back BS) when it goes like 10% ahead. When it goes back to 0%, I reverse.
Trading report today 00:00 UTC+2 -> so far.

Sum trades      1590479   mBTC (about 1% of global volume during this period)
net position decrease     -148160   mBTC
      
Gain USD      164489   
Decrease in net pos. USD     -115417   
China credit      -26737   
Fees      -1581   
      
VOL USD   1147166   
PROFIT USD   20754   
% of volume   1.81 %   
      
Profit in mBTC   26304

The profit was $1,600 (about 2,100mBTC) per hour. Ergo my time is 16 times more expensive than yours, and I must manage it more efficiently.

I don't need anything from the trolls. They don't add anything to the discussion. There is no reason for me to even let the negative opinion be expressed, especially this thread is not a "public opinion about me" thread. Also many here don't have any reverence or even manners. Why am I doing it and pouring $1,000s per day to the forum? It is for the readers. You trolls are enemies of the readers, so you desire to be deleted.

If somebody does not understand the fact that even writing this clarification post cost me about $1,000 of my time, he is very much free to go and search for wisdom elsewhere.

Also I hope that nobody is offended if I delete a "good" post from the thread, just to keep it more easily readable for mobile devices (for example if your post was quoted in full, it will appear many times, and I cannot edit posts only delete them, so I delete the original) etc, or if I do not answer some question publicly or do not reply to a PM. (But feel free to be offended if you like, this is currently the only way to keep it working and it will stay this way.)
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December 08, 2013, 06:46:22 PM
 #160

As markup over elsewhere on BTC China decreases he can buy BTC there and sell BTC else where. It doesn't matter if he is buying at a higher or lower price than he sold on BTC China.

Yes, explained on the 3rd day of the last crash (funny to be reposted as now is also the 3rd day).
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December 08, 2013, 10:08:45 PM
 #161

It's been a busy week. Partly due to delays in the repatriation of my profits from bitcoin sales, partly due to my willingness to invest some of it back on favorable terms, partly due to the epic volatility which gives both daytrading and arbitraging opportunities. But now it's over and I have some 40 minutes to write about what actually matters.

Simply put: Bitcoin is going to transform the world. Last March we calculated the EV for one bitcoin to be in the thousands. It sounded far-fetched. Now the price has already crossed a thousand (redefined as $1/mBTC), and can be expected to hit $10 next year. The recent EV calculation gives values that can reach $1,000/mBTC, and that is the average, weighted value, which considers the chances that it goes to zero!

The issue is not, how big numbers we are able to choke out, but the mode (hard to find a good word) bitcoin operates. When it gains more users, its value grows, which interests speculators, etc. etc., there is a virtuous cycle going on, and it has resoundingly proven itself over these 5 years and several bubblepops. I don't think anything can stop this, and the logical conclusion is that it won't be stopped. Like leaven in the dough, it works until the whole of it is leavened.

Some technologies have made a near-universal adoption, such as bank accounts, mobile phones, and email. In Finland, you are practically required to have all of these in order to have any dealings with the government, for instance. Yet none of them (save bank account) is sanctioned by law. I believe Bitcoin will soon join this group of de facto used technologies. While leavening the system, it does away with fiat money (including debt), and we will have a quite interesting new world when all is completed.

Can this happen without the shedding of blood? There are many revolutions which have been violent, but the technological revolutions have in general been quite peaceful. When email was introduced, did people riot on the streets? Mass executions after mobile phones came? WWW brought all kinds of calamities? Not really. There is one trapped government in the world (USA), which cannot realistically see that its iron grip on mankind could be held indefinitely. They may attempt something, but it's futile. Their belief that they need to control the world is wrong. And if they try, they fail. (They control the biggest bitcoin address, though Wink )

I have been thinking these kinds of things. My threads are designed to be more dense (less cluttered) than the usual forum content. I have none whatsoever interest in arguing. Today it's been necessary to completely remove posts from one user who just cannot understand that the readers are not interested in anything that he is able to produce (considering the focus of this thread, elsewhere he's doing well and has saved my time by writing along the lines I would have posted). There is no law that requires me to explain. There are so many threads and you can start your own. There are 3 mock-threads about me, mentioned by name. If you feel better reading them, go for it.

My intention is to research, write about and promote Bitcoin Economics. To this end, I often use examples from my own life (they are good, because they were the way I got to think about a certain concept). There has been no way for me to continue writing about these matters but by divulging the number of bitcoins I have (approx. BTC10,000). If this puts me in the 50 bitcoin richest in the world, praise the Lord! Today my share of global exchange trading volume has been even significantly higher than the share of coins (~1%).

Bitcoin strips you naked. Everyone sees how much money you have. And at the same time it is impossible to know who has what. It is a very different world where we are entering. And I am liking it. Sure there are many haters to this openness, but I think the bulk of it is just a knee-jerk reaction to something new. Then many would like to have as many coins but don't. To them I would advice to read all my threads, and consider, how to get the optimal number which is still available, even though the megajackpot amounts are not available any more.
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December 09, 2013, 03:01:36 AM
 #162

Risto I don't know if you are sleeping and I didn't intentionally post this during my morning in order to defeat your option to quickly delete should you so desire. I just happen to reply at this time.

I don't think anything can stop this, and the logical conclusion is that it won't be stopped.

Nothing can stop it until the rate of adoption slows. Period.

Realize the operative word is slows and that is because the growth model is almost entirely as a speculative asset.

The design of Bitcoin for a currency is very poor as compared to credit cards or Paypal. If you don't believe me, try to use it like a credit card for a week at the merchants who accept Bitcoin. And I don't mean a dearth of merchants, I mean it just doesn't work well even where it is accepted, if you are an average person with average lack of technical acumen. And there is a significant design error w.r.t. to transaction fees which will worsen as the market cap increases and the coin rewards halve a few more times, thus years from now.

Besides government fouling it up noting I have explained how government can destroy/control at-will, the only other credible threat would be an altcoin that changes the universe; meaning it would have to be revolutionary in a way that was so incredibly compelling that it sucked the life out of Bitcoin.

Neither of those remote possibilities are likely.

Government is in fact endorsing Bitcoin. And I suspect the reason is (partially) because they've been trying to get rid of cash (1000 Euro bill recently gone, daily ATM limits dropping throughout Europe, similar in USA with banks refusing to let one withdraw large amounts of cash), they've announced plans to move towards electronic currency in order to apply a negative interest rate to all balances by decree (both in the USA and EU and also the IMF has announced a net worth tax).

And Bitcoin is so much better for catching tax evaders than cash, because everything is stored on the public ledger, and as I explained already that without strong anonymity (which is not built-in to Bitcoin), then via divide-and-conquer it is trivially easy to force all Bitcoin users to require identification on all their trades (spends).

The Bitcoin-killer altcoin is not likely, not so much due to the illusory network-effects, but because no one has shown the capability to create an altcoin that offers anything that creates value other than the spiraling speculation growth model which Risto just avowed.

Edit: my current thinking is absent government killing it or a killer altcoin, Bitcoin adoption slows once all of those who are tech savvy are in. If someone finds a way to make Bitcoin super easy for people like my mother, then the adoption could continue all the way into the entire population, because for example my mom eventually adopted Paypal. But here is the pertinent revelation, she has no reason to switch from Paypal, it already serves the purposes she needs from an electronic currency. Let that thud sink in. She and most average people will refuse to buy a speculative asset.

One caveat is to note not all citizens in all developing countries can be merchants with Paypal, so this is a potential market opportunity, but other than for international money transfers so far I see no other mainstream Bitcoin adoption whatsoever in this market segment. Note the recent sending of Bitcoin for typhoon victims is an example where Paypal probably would have failed us, as it is difficult to withdraw from Paypal in the Philippines (only certain banks accepted, only certain types of accounts at those banks, and in general one can not be receiving payments as a merchant). Also the ability to side-step China's capital controls by buying BTC.

Risto when it comes to understanding internet marketing, I am more knowledgeable and experienced than you. So pay attention, just as I do pay attention when you speak about trading strategy because you live and breathe it daily and you are born to do it. I was born to fiddle with and understand phenomena and even infrequently implement consumer market movers of some significance.

Yet none of them (save bank account) is sanctioned by law. I believe Bitcoin will soon join this group of de facto used technologies.

Sorry the latter doesn't follow from the former, meaning de facto adoption of technology has nothing to with that it is or isn't sanctioned by law. And the latter is impossible (with 10 minute blocks, non-zero transaction fees, etc). Reality check.

While leavening the system, it does away with fiat money (including debt), and we will have a quite interesting new world when all is completed.

We all wish that was true, but it is in fact impossible, at least the current design of Bitcoin.

I would rather you look at Bitcoin as potentially the first stepping stone in that direction, as my Cool Page was the first that led to Friendster which led to Myspace which led to Facebook. Whether Bitcoin will be modified (unlikely due to vested interests), offchain takes over (possibly), the government will take over (most likely in my analysis), or an altcoin will outcompete (less likely) remains to be seen.

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December 09, 2013, 01:50:39 PM
 #163

Anonymity not. Forcing the 3% to be transparent not. Risto this is seriously bad. This isn't some Monopoly game. I know you are having fun and hitting the sweet spot of your trading talent, but come on there is more at stake here.

The forces of evil must move slowly, mainly because:

- Their commanders must remain secret to continue commanding
- Their whole system is based on lies upon lies, which must be constantly covered and built upon ad ridiculium
- Their organization is the opposite of agile
- They must appear good/reasonable to the masses.

The 9/11 was a turningpoint, after which the astute people on the side of freedom saw that the U.S. will descend to a (world) police state. But see how little they have accomplished in 12 years! All the gains in spying power have come at the expense of greatly increased information (and later monetary) freedom to everyone.

Bitcoin is now going much faster than the dark side. Your threats may come to fruition in 5-10 years, do you not think that we can outpace them with new innovation in the meanwhile? I am eagerly awaiting the pictures of the new roofs that have been constructed merely a week from the typhoon! In the old system, taking the funds to the site of need would have taken 3 months alone. This is only one of the myriad of examples that is carried out by a tiny population (1.2M) of bitcoin users.

Yet - there are very few truly powerful thinkers/influencers/powercenters (ie. supernodes) in Bitcoin economy currently. The number is going to grow exponentially in the following months. This means a corresponding increase in our power, whereas the power of the dark side stays constant at best.

Many have asked, whether I am afraid to be so rich and yet speak so directly. Why should I be afraid? First of all, I don't come from a family of great wealth, and I know how it feels to live through an adolescence spending practically nothing. The wealth has come to me for a purpose, and I feel that this is the purpose now. Only twice have I sensed a grave personal danger coming from the current system. Both times I disclosed it in the forum that I was then contributing. The first time I got all my confiscated property back after 7.5 months. The second time I was locked in a mental ward for 6 weeks. But I am still alive, and grateful for the experiences.

Besides, Bible says that we should not fear the one who has the power to kill (Satan), but the one who can not only kill, but throw you in hell (God). I have chosen which one to fear. We should submit to authority but not fear it, (unless we do evil, because authorities are there to punish evil).
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December 09, 2013, 02:45:44 PM
 #164

My intention is to research, write about and promote Bitcoin Economics.

I have been running a bitcoind full node on a home office server and found that given enough restarts and running duration, bitcoind overcomes its default 8 outgoing connections and accepts incoming connections up to a default maximum of 125. At that point, the network upload bandwidth consumed by bitcoind degrades the performance of other apps on my local area network.

To restore overall performance, I arranged for a separate internet connection for the server hosting bitcoind. I chose the least expensive broadband option, with upload bandwidth being the primary criterion. For the past couple of weeks, I have been running bitcoind this way, consuming all the upload bandwidth provided.

I mention this because last spring you got me excited about the Supernode concept, and one your points was to run a full node. Would you be interested in helping me promote the establishment of dedicated bitcoind full nodes by bitcoin holders reading this forum?

Running a full node is absolutely necessary, especially given the fact that the number of full nodes is currently dangerously low.

I always recommend to my acquaintances to run bitcoin-qt, regardless of the hassle related to the first synch. I also recommend them to have it always running. From one side is the most secure client apart from offline solutions; from the other a healthy number of full nodes is absolutely necessary to have a healthy network.

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December 09, 2013, 09:05:35 PM
 #165

Some recognition of the points I raised several days ago upthread, even you have some photo evidence upthread that appears to show aid not reaching the far flung areas (although we can't see if donated and possibly consumed sardine cans are hidden in those half-destroyed homes):

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/93697/un-worries-aid-has-not-reached-philippine-victims

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/540225/palace-cops-must-stop-sale-of-us-ready-to-eat-meals

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/543605/palace-denies-aid-has-not-reached-yolanda-victims

Imagine if the BTC could go directly to them (if BTC was spendable for them) and I didn't have to convert to pesos and send via manual money transfers, i.e. I had to fill up forms with a ball pen and my physical presence for each recipient of funds.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/542373/tacloban-mayor-says-hes-still-hurt-by-aquinos-words

Quote
Amid criticisms he should have brought in more relief to help storm victims in the Visayas, Quinapondan residents said they were happy at just seeing boxer Manny Pacquiao in person.

“Even without the relief, seeing him in person and shaking hands with him are already enough to make us happy,” said Lita Palines, 70, a Quinapondan resident.

Pacquiao had admitted the 10 truckloads of relief items he had ordered transported from General Santos City to typhoon-devastated areas were not enough and would benefit only a few people.

Meanwhile the BIR has confiscated Manny's billions accusing him of not paying taxes in the USA for his fight profits there. And the President seems to be jealous of Manny's popularity and has endorsed the BIR action against him.

Bitcoin is now going much faster than the dark side. Your threats may come to fruition in 5-10 years, do you not think that we can outpace them with new innovation in the meanwhile?

I am hoping we can. I am happy to see this attitude from you. When you say "Bitcoin" I think you know you refer to an ecosystem and a phenomenon that is not necessarily limited to one crypto-currency design. It may be, but that is not 100% certain. Screw my efforts that is irrelevant to the point I am making.

Apologies to consume your time to write that reply. I do understand now why you are so busy making trades. And you know of course I am not against arbitrage.

Besides, Bible says that we should not fear the one who has the power to kill (Satan), but the one who can not only kill, but throw you in hell (God). I have chosen which one to fear. We should submit to authority but not fear it, (unless we do evil, because authorities are there to punish evil).

When God sent some officials on foot to warn a man of torrential rains with possibly severe flooding and he was sitting on his porch and said "no thanks God will save me", then God sent a boat to the guy trapped by the rising flood and he said from the second story "no thanks God will save me", then God sent him a helicopter and he said from the roof top "no thanks God will save me". Then he died and perhaps went to heaven (we can't falsify it).

So to ignore the facts (e.g. about Bitcoin's design flaws) is to I think be obstinate. Now if we say that flaws aren't a hindrance to the big picture because that ecosystem is building momentum which isn't just one design (as if God ever intended for a lack of diversity on earth when he said "go forth and multiply"), then I personally view that as not obstinate. Which is based on my perspective and analysis of the issues, which may or may not be correct (we will see).

About doing evil, no human is above sin. I prefer to get the facts correct. And to make correct appraisals of where to focus effort. That is what I am in the midst of now. Trying to understand the reality, not the delusion of it all. That includes researching where the "supernodes" are heading.

But see how little they have accomplished in 12 years! All the gains in spying power have come at the expense of greatly increased information (and later monetary) freedom to everyone.

The QE ended up as dollar bond issues throughout the developing world. Thus what they've been successfully doing the past 12 years is running up the debt of the world, and preparing all the tracking technologies, for the global implosion that will begin before 2020 (and after 2015).

Quote
Proverbs 22:7
New International Version (NIV)
7 The rich rule over the poor,
    and the borrower is slave to the lender.

They have not been idle. If you and others don't see it, that means they've been even more successful in slow cooking the frogs.

And the internet has become more controlled by the large majors (e.g. one can't realistically surf the internet without Google's cookie getting into the browser with its ads on every other site) and my analysis (educated opinion) is that Bitcoin is also flawed in ways that fits right into the overall plan.

Sorry I don't see that we are winning. I see the tech savvy people fell right into the honeypot, as designed by the NSA. Satoshi was a Japanese guy. Yeah right.

who just cannot understand that the readers are not interested in anything that he is able to produce

It is inaccurate to assume I can not and do not understand that most readers (especially those following your thread) are interested in BTC's price and adoption.

Thus I think they should be aware of the facts. The facts are not about any one person. We try our best to discuss with the least verbiage. It is difficult to remain concise and impart deeper knowledge. For one commentator to not dominate someone else's diary is desirable.



The mass market, around 70% of the world's population, doesn't have the benefit of getting a credit card or bank account. Now they can skip a generation of infrastructure investment and go straight to Bitcoin or any other coin with a mobile phone and a coin wallet.

And nearly none of them have the savvy or ability. You won't be zapping your Android wallet to the lady selling fish in the wet market in a 3rd world country even within 5 years. There is simply no compelling reason for them to do so. The transactions would be much too slow any way. Have you ever seen how fast the market vendor chops, dispenses, and cashiers multi-tasking. And then you expect them to slow down to put their wet stinky fingers on their smart phone and then wait 10 minutes for a 1-confirmation transaction.

Reality check!

Some internet businesses we can't do now because of the model of credit cards. One of these might have the potential to drive Bitcoin adoption. I have some ideas specifically in mind, but I am holding them close to my chest.



but I think the bulk of it is just a knee-jerk reaction to something new.


+1

If this is the basis of your confidence to dismiss the expertise of others who have something contrary to say about Bitcoin, that would not make me too confident about you doing thorough research. I assume you instead have deeply analyzed the technology and know it as the back of your hand. And if I ask you technical questions, then you would be able to answer them with ease.

For example in my case, my entire life has been about new things. I am not allergic to the new, I have consistently been embracing the new. I assume programming for the internet in 1996 is before you did.

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December 09, 2013, 10:11:37 PM
 #166

If I could change the topic before I stop posting in your thread, I just wanted to share this.

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/93437/mom-puts-up-bounty-for-missing-daughter-in-tacloban

A mother working in the Middle East comes home to find her mother, two daughters, and elder sister are all dead or missing. She explains the difficulty getting a driver to bring her to Tacloban back in early November the vehicles were being flagged down and the food was being taken. So those are the sort of reports I was hearing about. I suppose it has improved by now.

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/93715/uk-embassy-denies-report-on-yolanda-aid-not-reaching-victims

Quote
A Japanese foreign aid worker was also quoted as saying that not enough food was getting to the people and that local officials have been taking the goods.
“There isn’t enough food getting through to people. We don’t have evidence but we believe it is being taken by officials,” Japanese relief worker Shiratori Koti was quoted as saying.

And here is the politics:

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/529621/roxas-muscling-romualdez-out-of-tacloban-city-hall

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/529883/aquino-roxas-romualdez-strike-deal

Quote
Romualdez won a third term opposite Liberal Party candidate Bem Noel, the former An-Waray representative, in the May 2012 polls.
Roxas is the president on-leave of the ruling party but the President and even his sister Kris had campaigned for Noel, a friend of the President.

Quote
he mayor suggested that the Department of National Defense provide Tacloban with a military force “to secure the perimeter because we’ve heard of unverified reports that some lawless elements have been trying to take advantage of the [aid] caravan as far as Samar, and there were rumors of some NPA (New People’s Army) members coming down,” the lawmaker said.
Inmates, facing death, also escaped from the city jail.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/543457/romualdez-recounts-how-govt-withheld-help-in-yolanda-aftermath

Quote
He recalled Roxas as telling him: “You have to be very careful because you are a Romualdez, and the President is an Aquino.”
Then the issue that he was being asked to