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Author Topic: Uncharted territory. What happens at $266?  (Read 4488 times)
Tirapon
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November 05, 2013, 08:27:21 PM
 #21

I think we'll probably blow right by it, since this rally seems to be driven by the chinese, and $266 has no significance for them.

The Chinese may still be looking at price history in USD in order to try and predict price movement. And the ATH will be the same for them, i.e. whatever the equivalent of $266 is in renminbi.
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November 05, 2013, 08:28:04 PM
 #22

$300 is next
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November 05, 2013, 09:56:33 PM
 #23

I think we'll probably blow right by it, since this rally seems to be driven by the chinese, and $266 has no significance for them.

Except that the common chinese worker cannot afford to risk even $100 into bitcoin.

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November 05, 2013, 10:02:47 PM
 #24


...

A) $266 proves to be significant resistance, with attempts to break through being met with an increased selling volume. (We have not seen this behavior to date on this rally.) Such resistance would once again provide a healthy consolidation phase and allow potential buyers to reload.
B) $266 proves to be significant resistance, and this scares a few folks into selling.  Right now, only 10,000 Bitcoins sold would take our price back down to $210.
C) $266 gets steadily eaten through over the course of hours or days. The strongest outcome. If this occurs, expect the rally to gain steam.
D) $266 gets blown through by an impulsive move, most likely a high-volume buy.  If this occurs, there is a higher likelihood for a head-fake.  It will be hardest to know the long-term outcome in this case. I speculate the most likely is a pop above, a high-volume sell-off that follows (with the aim of loosening more bitcoins).  When the rally resumes, it will be violent and without warning.

...As for likelihoods and timeframes, I predict we'll encounter B) within a day. After between 1 and 3 failed breakthroughs, D) occurs.


So far, so good.  The relative shallowness of the dip, and the rapidity with which the market shrugged it off bodes very well.

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November 05, 2013, 10:07:56 PM
 #25

Except that the common chinese worker cannot afford to risk even $100 into bitcoin.

China is #2 in GDP. There's plenty of money there.

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November 05, 2013, 10:13:33 PM
 #26

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=325694.0

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November 05, 2013, 10:35:21 PM
 #27

True, but back then Americans were watching what Americans knew to be the ATH.  Now we have Chinese investors that don't know or care and they are the majority.

But often significant rates roughly coincide. We should arrive at ¥1600 and $266 more or less simultaneously, so the Chinese may perceive it as resistance around ¥1600.

There is actually an interesting wiki site on numbers in Chinese culture, and given the superstitious nature of many Chinese, I thought it may be of interest in the coming weeks/months.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numbers_in_Chinese_culture

In the short rally so far, I have, however, not been yet been able to spot any correlation between this and events in BTC rates on the Chinese exchanges,
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November 05, 2013, 10:56:11 PM
 #28

Except that the common chinese worker cannot afford to risk even $100 into bitcoin.

China is #2 in GDP. There's plenty of money there.

... agreed it won't take much to blast this market to 1000 usd there are  to few bitcoins for sale with so much interest
If you are gonna gamble on a drop make sure you have a trigger limit sitting above the next wall .


 
 
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November 05, 2013, 10:56:45 PM
 #29

True, but back then Americans were watching what Americans knew to be the ATH.  Now we have Chinese investors that don't know or care and they are the majority.

We should arrive at ¥1600 and $266 more or less simultaneously, so the Chinese may perceive it as resistance around ¥1600.

You're right.  I didn't do my homework.  So much for that theory.

Yep, it's gonna be a megawall.

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November 06, 2013, 12:20:14 AM
 #30

Except that the common chinese worker cannot afford to risk even $100 into bitcoin.
It's the common American worker cannot afford investments, because he have to buy 100-inch TV first. Chinese worker cannot afford to not invest.

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November 06, 2013, 01:05:05 AM
 #31

Except that the common chinese worker cannot afford to risk even $100 into bitcoin.
It's the common American worker cannot afford investments, because he have to buy 100-inch TV first. Chinese worker cannot afford to not invest.

+1

Chinese priorities: health, wealth & family

American priorities: big screen TV, SUV & "Dancing with the Stars"

Conclusion: Bullish based on Chinese common sense despite vapid American priorities.

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November 06, 2013, 01:06:07 AM
 #32

Except that the common chinese worker cannot afford to risk even $100 into bitcoin.
It's the common American worker cannot afford investments, because he have to buy 100-inch TV first. Chinese worker cannot afford to not invest.

+1

Chinese priorities: health, wealth & family

American priorities: big screen TV, SUV & "Dancing with the Stars"

Conclusion: Bullish based on Chinese common sense despite vapid American priorities.


+258.88

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November 06, 2013, 04:46:44 AM
 #33

Next stop, $290!
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November 06, 2013, 05:00:09 AM
 #34

We are in uncharted price territory but in terms of market sentiment...

"we've only just begun...."  ~ The Carpenters


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November 06, 2013, 05:10:01 AM
 #35

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antimattercrusader
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November 06, 2013, 05:11:35 AM
 #36

I think we'll probably blow right by it, since this rally seems to be driven by the chinese, and $266 has no significance for them.

Except that the common chinese worker cannot afford to risk even $100 into bitcoin.

The common chinese worker are not the ppl making speculative bitcoin investments... there is a lot of money in China.

BTC: 13WYhobWLHRMvBwXGq5ckEuUyuDPgMmHuK
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November 06, 2013, 05:12:04 AM
 #37

Oh, and what happens at $266? This just happened....



That's what happens!

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November 06, 2013, 05:17:34 AM
 #38

Woot !

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November 06, 2013, 05:24:16 AM
 #39

2000 Yuan - ~$328

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November 06, 2013, 09:55:35 AM
 #40

Next stop, $290!

¥1750
And we're not stopping. Maybe slow down a little.
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