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Author Topic: is the network hash dropping?  (Read 6901 times)
rpg
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November 05, 2013, 06:54:36 PM
 #1

after hitting ~4500TH is now at ~3250TH, according to the graph on link. This is a major drop. Are the T machines failing or what is going on? There's always a drop prior to a diff adjustment but this seems to be a bit over expectations. Just wondering

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/

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corsaro
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November 05, 2013, 07:07:12 PM
 #2

after hitting ~4500TH is now at ~3250TH, according to the graph on link. This is a major drop. Are the T machines failing or what is going on? There's always a drop prior to a diff adjustment but this seems to be a bit over expectations. Just wondering

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/


yes, I noted it too some hours ago. really strange.

It looks like a big datacenter switched off its miners.
rpg
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November 05, 2013, 07:12:23 PM
 #3

after hitting ~4500TH is now at ~3250TH, according to the graph on link. This is a major drop. Are the T machines failing or what is going on? There's always a drop prior to a diff adjustment but this seems to be a bit over expectations. Just wondering

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/


yes, I noted it too some hours ago. really strange.

It looks like a big datacenter switched off its miners.

more then 1 datacenter, we're talking of ~ 1000 1T mchines. Maybe KNC is shipping the machines they have been mining with?   Grin The actual current hasrate is 3657.70 according to http://bitcoinwatch.com/

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corsaro
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November 05, 2013, 07:22:05 PM
 #4

ghash.io passed quickly from 736.42 Th/s to 933.69 Th/s

really strange...

Probably some big datacenters are experiencing temporary difficulties ?
rpg
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November 05, 2013, 07:27:55 PM
 #5

ghash.io passed quickly from 736.42 Th/s to 933.69 Th/s

really strange...

Probably some big datacenters are experiencing temporary difficulties ?

ghash has a jumpy hashrate, never understood why, maybe their hash calculation formula. bitcoinwatch seems to be right on the money when it comes to hash calculation and if you notice the graph the decline didn't start today, it has been going on for a few days, so no last minute turn off to manipulate the diff

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corsaro
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November 05, 2013, 07:31:48 PM
 #6

ghash.io passed quickly from 736.42 Th/s to 933.69 Th/s

really strange...

Probably some big datacenters are experiencing temporary difficulties ?

ghash has a jumpy hashrate, never understood why, maybe their hash calculation formula. bitcoinwatch seems to be right on the money when it comes to hash calculation and if you notice the graph the decline didn't start today, it has been going on for a few days, so no last minute turn off to manipulate the diff

anyway, I think that this "strange" 1000TH computational speed reduction, probably will reduce next difficulty value..
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November 05, 2013, 07:33:19 PM
 #7

we are now at 510929738 difficulty
TheQuin
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November 05, 2013, 07:38:03 PM
 #8

When the difficulty goes up it makes some alt coins more profitable for a while so lots of miners switch over. Then the alt coins difficulties go up and everything gets back to normal.

braytz
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November 05, 2013, 07:38:37 PM
 #9

we are now at 510929738 difficulty

yay !!!!

turbobitcoin
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November 05, 2013, 07:44:56 PM
 #10

#Conspiracy #ItIsAllPartOfThePlan #SellMoreMiningHardware
Don't mind me.
I noticed that too. Something is going on......... it's a trap, lol. On the serious note, there is something going on, I just don't know what!

Edit:
I suppose some mining equipment is no longer viable to run. I hope whosoever equipment that was, they broke even at the least.
FeedbackLoop
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November 05, 2013, 07:54:53 PM
 #11

My humble guess so far is simply some lag somewhere in the reporting of found blocks that confused blockchain.info and maybe a few other places (perhaps there were a couple orphaned blocks here and there?) combined with a bit longer time to find the first 510,929,738.02 diff block making it all look very slow suddenly to those not in front of the miner.

rpg
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November 05, 2013, 08:43:09 PM
 #12

we are now at 510929738 difficulty

lets see where it goes now, if it jumps to 4.5 it was manipulation, if not, 1000 T machines are somewhere on a plane or they are breaking apart

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corsaro
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November 05, 2013, 09:24:05 PM
 #13

we are now at 510929738 difficulty

lets see where it goes now, if it jumps to 4.5 it was manipulation, if not, 1000 T machines are somewhere on a plane or they are breaking apart

is it possible they are mining some sha-256 altcoin like TRC?
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November 05, 2013, 10:08:12 PM
 #14

Luck and/or DDOS attack on some big pools and drop is visible. It's happend before and will be in the future...

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November 05, 2013, 10:23:03 PM
 #15

If there is a drop in hashing power/miner, the difficulty will decrease and therefore it would be a wise idea to buy hardware.
At this time and age wouldn't it be cost effective for manipulation by a bitcoin hardware seller? What I mean is a organized DDOS in order to make it look like there is less miners, thus people will think it will be easier to mine and will buy hardware?
Then when they shipout the hardware they stop the DDOS.

I hope this is not the case.
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November 05, 2013, 10:53:36 PM
 #16

doesn't look like it's dropping anytime soon
next estimate is 755745693
rpg
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November 05, 2013, 11:32:18 PM
 #17

doesn't look like it's dropping anytime soon
next estimate is 755745693

where are you getting that estimate from? that would imply a 50% hash rate raise or close to 1800 Tera hashes, according to what i'm seeing so far the next hash rate will be 513. I know this is not final but i would expect around a 25% increase to 625 million (900 Tera hashes added to the network)

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FarSky7
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November 06, 2013, 12:18:32 AM
 #18

If there is a drop in hashing power/miner, the difficulty will decrease and therefore it would be a wise idea to buy hardware.
At this time and age wouldn't it be cost effective for manipulation by a bitcoin hardware seller? What I mean is a organized DDOS in order to make it look like there is less miners, thus people will think it will be easier to mine and will buy hardware?
Then when they shipout the hardware they stop the DDOS.

I hope this is not the case.

That is a pretty intriguing thought.

Or perhaps a trojan, or bot that goes around hacking into mining machines,

either diverting payouts or attempting to permanently damage the board.

That would bring the hashrate down, and the companies wouldn't need

to do a thing, letting human nature take its course.

Realistically, its only a matter of time now.


How many people left their log and pass admin? A certain percentage will.

Hell, I did til just now. Roll Eyes
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November 06, 2013, 12:28:48 AM
 #19

Please remember/note that there is a lot of noise in the hashrate reading.  Also note that the estimated next difficulty is not that accurate right after an adjustment.

The best charts I have seen for this sort of speculation are found here:

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Note the second graph down.  It shows graphically how much the next difficulty estimate varies over each difficulty adjustment cycle.

Also note:

Bitcoin Difficulty: 510,929,738

Estimated Next Difficulty: 656,156,896 (+28.42%)

I believe this to be the best estimate at this time.  

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November 06, 2013, 12:56:15 AM
 #20

Just temporary, it is going up again... Next generation mining equipment being shipped everyday... HashFast <----

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