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Author Topic: is the network hash dropping?  (Read 6906 times)
rpg
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November 06, 2013, 01:11:11 AM
 #21

Just temporary, it is going up again... Next generation mining equipment being shipped everyday... HashFast <----

the reason for this post is not if or why the network hash is going up. It will and my guess is around 25% for the next diff. The question is where did those 1000T go. They were on the network so they are somewhere. And if you notice they didn't drop all at once, they dripped slowly. Burn test by a manufacturer? ASIC going online and breaking down? BFL datacenter went up in flames? Grin Well, there are no news on any major datacenter fire in the past 2 weeks, at least in the google english news. The only 2 i can find in the past month are the Gigenet and the NSA fires

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beegatewood
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November 06, 2013, 05:40:50 AM
 #22

Just temporary, it is going up again... Next generation mining equipment being shipped everyday... HashFast <----

the reason for this post is not if or why the network hash is going up. It will and my guess is around 25% for the next diff. The question is where did those 1000T go. They were on the network so they are somewhere. And if you notice they didn't drop all at once, they dripped slowly. Burn test by a manufacturer? ASIC going online and breaking down? BFL datacenter went up in flames? Grin Well, there are no news on any major datacenter fire in the past 2 weeks, at least in the google english news. The only 2 i can find in the past month are the Gigenet and the NSA fires

What I understand is the network hashrate also have luck factored in. I.e. your miners might be doing 50 GH/s. But when you go to your pool it says 30 GH/s - 80 GH/s. If your lucky you might submit more shares and etc....

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November 07, 2013, 01:35:17 AM
 #23

Its funny how the hash rate dropped in the days immediately before the diff. change, and then immediately after the diff. change the hash rate jumps right back to pre-dropping levels. It's more than variance. Someone is  'trying' to game the diff. changes.
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November 07, 2013, 10:44:34 AM
 #24

Its funny how the hash rate dropped in the days immediately before the diff. change, and then immediately after the diff. change the hash rate jumps right back to pre-dropping levels. It's more than variance. Someone is  'trying' to game the diff. changes.

From https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty

Quote
The difficulty is adjusted every 2016 blocks based on the time it took to find the previous 2016 blocks. At the desired rate of one block each 10 minutes, 2016 blocks would take exactly two weeks to find. If the previous 2016 blocks took more than two weeks to find, the difficulty is reduced. If they took less than two weeks, the difficulty is increased. The change in difficulty is in proportion to the amount of time over or under two weeks the previous 2016 blocks took to find.

Since the difficulty is adjusted based on the entire 2016 block period, reducing the hash rate during the last few days would have little effect on the actual adjustment value.  The only thing turning off your miner(s) during the last few days does is to reduce your own income at the lower difficulty - which makes no sense.

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November 07, 2013, 11:22:02 AM
 #25

Since the difficulty is adjusted based on the entire 2016 block period, reducing the hash rate during the last few days would have little effect on the actual adjustment value.  The only thing turning off your miner(s) during the last few days does is to reduce your own income at the lower difficulty - which makes no sense.

This ^^^^^^^

No conspiracy here, just some miners switch to other coins when they are more profitable to mine.


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November 08, 2013, 02:09:47 PM
 #26

Might not be dropping, but it certainly ain't going up right now, not for the last week or so.
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November 08, 2013, 02:41:16 PM
 #27

maybe this is where the GH went?

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/11/07/judge-orders-coinlab-to-pay-up-in-bitcoin/

"CoinLab Chief Executive Peter Vessenes has said that the lawsuit was a contributing factor in last week’s bankruptcy filing of CoinLab’s mining unit, which is called Alydian Inc. Mr. Vessenes is also chairman of the Bitcoin Foundation, a nonprofit trade group that promotes the virtual currency.

Mr. Vessenes noted in an email on Thursday that CoinLab itself has no mining operations, but “of course we will comply (with the judge’s order) as well as we’re able.” It isn’t clear if Alydian is still generating bitcoin while it is under bankruptcy protection."
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November 08, 2013, 03:33:41 PM
 #28

maybe this is where the GH went?

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/11/07/judge-orders-coinlab-to-pay-up-in-bitcoin/

"CoinLab Chief Executive Peter Vessenes has said that the lawsuit was a contributing factor in last week’s bankruptcy filing of CoinLab’s mining unit, which is called Alydian Inc. Mr. Vessenes is also chairman of the Bitcoin Foundation, a nonprofit trade group that promotes the virtual currency.

Mr. Vessenes noted in an email on Thursday that CoinLab itself has no mining operations, but “of course we will comply (with the judge’s order) as well as we’re able.” It isn’t clear if Alydian is still generating bitcoin while it is under bankruptcy protection."

good find.  Either someone shutdown their mining operations (coinlab?), terahash machines are breaking left and right or tera hash machines are on their way to customers. Time will tell

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monkee
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November 08, 2013, 04:12:13 PM
 #29

maybe this is where the GH went?

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/11/07/judge-orders-coinlab-to-pay-up-in-bitcoin/

"CoinLab Chief Executive Peter Vessenes has said that the lawsuit was a contributing factor in last week’s bankruptcy filing of CoinLab’s mining unit, which is called Alydian Inc. Mr. Vessenes is also chairman of the Bitcoin Foundation, a nonprofit trade group that promotes the virtual currency.

Mr. Vessenes noted in an email on Thursday that CoinLab itself has no mining operations, but “of course we will comply (with the judge’s order) as well as we’re able.” It isn’t clear if Alydian is still generating bitcoin while it is under bankruptcy protection."

good find.  Either someone shutdown their mining operations (coinlab?), terahash machines are breaking left and right or tera hash machines are on their way to customers. Time will tell

thanks!  and my other thought was knc unplugging and packing up their second batch, which someone already mentioned.  anyone know what hardware Alydian used?  Might we see it hit the market?
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November 09, 2013, 12:24:23 AM
 #30

Its funny how the hash rate dropped in the days immediately before the diff. change, and then immediately after the diff. change the hash rate jumps right back to pre-dropping levels. It's more than variance. Someone is  'trying' to game the diff. changes.

From https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty

Quote
The difficulty is adjusted every 2016 blocks based on the time it took to find the previous 2016 blocks. At the desired rate of one block each 10 minutes, 2016 blocks would take exactly two weeks to find. If the previous 2016 blocks took more than two weeks to find, the difficulty is reduced. If they took less than two weeks, the difficulty is increased. The change in difficulty is in proportion to the amount of time over or under two weeks the previous 2016 blocks took to find.

Since the difficulty is adjusted based on the entire 2016 block period, reducing the hash rate during the last few days would have little effect on the actual adjustment value.  The only thing turning off your miner(s) during the last few days does is to reduce your own income at the lower difficulty - which makes no sense.

Yes, I know and understand this. Hence the emphasis on 'trying'.

Looks like that news may have been the result.
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November 09, 2013, 01:03:56 AM
 #31

Miners that are unsuccessful at overclocking?

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November 09, 2013, 01:28:43 AM
 #32

A little early to tell but the current estimate is for "only" a 19% hike at the next adjustment:

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

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November 09, 2013, 01:57:11 AM
 #33

A little early to tell but the current estimate is for "only" a 19% hike at the next adjustment:

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

It looks to me that the 504 and 1008 block hash rate plots are very telling for the last 3 or 4 difficulty jumps.  I haven't done enough research to say definitely, nor do I care enough to spend the time, but perhaps someone more in tune with the large scale ASIC market will know...

It would seem that big ASIC batches are being tested used on the customer's dime up to the point of a difficulty jump, then boxed up and shipped out.  Meaning the manufacturers get the benefit of the difficulty not yet accounting for the massive increase in hashing power and the customer gets screwed out of the advantage of being the first on the network with new hardware.

I can't seem to explain otherwise the clear pattern of large jumps in hashrate, a big drop around the difficulty jump, then a slow ramp up (accounting for difference in shipping to customers world-wide) in hashrate.  Call me a skeptic, but heck if I was running one of these mining hardware companies, it would be awful hard to resist the temptation to explain away a one or two week delay in shipping with some BS while taking advantage of the relative easy difficulty.

I'm sure if someone was so inclined, they could do the legwork and either confirm or deny a correlation between rapid hash-rate drop offs and large batch ASIC shipments.  Perhaps even some blockchain sluething to correlate that mining income with a small group of addresses...
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November 09, 2013, 02:06:33 AM
 #34

I think it could also be some of the early asic hardware being shut down....basically usb erupters are useless, Japalpeno's are just like 25 usb erupters so they are useless as well, do the gen 1 ASICMiner blades still make anything on a daily basis?

I haven't had my usb erupter plugged in for quite a while...it just doesn't matter anymore.
It was only making a fraction of a cent per day...maybe the electricity isn't much either but it isn't worth me thinking about it anymore.
My Saturn is generating a decent amount each day and it eclipses anything put out by the USB or Jalapeno.

There have to be others shutting down their old ASIC hardware as well...and nobody can possibly be running gpu rigs anymore(?)

Also, I think that the hardware market is just saturated.... nothing you can buy makes a profit...and no one has any tolerance for mining at a loss.
 
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November 09, 2013, 03:06:07 AM
 #35

I think it could also be some of the early asic hardware being shut down....basically usb erupters are useless, Japalpeno's are just like 25 usb erupters so they are useless as well, do the gen 1 ASICMiner blades still make anything on a daily basis?

I haven't had my usb erupter plugged in for quite a while...it just doesn't matter anymore.
It was only making a fraction of a cent per day...maybe the electricity isn't much either but it isn't worth me thinking about it anymore.
My Saturn is generating a decent amount each day and it eclipses anything put out by the USB or Jalapeno.

There have to be others shutting down their old ASIC hardware as well...and nobody can possibly be running gpu rigs anymore(?)

Also, I think that the hardware market is just saturated.... nothing you can buy makes a profit...and no one has any tolerance for mining at a loss.
 
You forget that there's no point in shutting down your mining rigs completely unless it's broken of course. When your revenue gets close to electricity costs, you're better off selling your rig to someone with cheaper/free electricity. This way hashing power just changes hands, while overall impact on the network hashrate is negligible.
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November 09, 2013, 03:16:52 AM
 #36

If there is a drop in hashing power/miner, the difficulty will decrease and therefore it would be a wise idea to buy hardware.
At this time and age wouldn't it be cost effective for manipulation by a bitcoin hardware seller? What I mean is a organized DDOS in order to make it look like there is less miners, thus people will think it will be easier to mine and will buy hardware?
Then when they shipout the hardware they stop the DDOS.

I hope this is not the case.
That won't work in practice as most miners have failover pools set in their configs.
Even if all pools are DDoS'ed, there's still p2pool, which is quite difficult to shut down.

But there can be other kind of manipulation.
Say some mining hardware manufacturer has a lot of mining power already deployed and wants to manipulate network hasrate.
It can manipulate network hasrate to a some extent by diverting some of its hashrate to PPS pools while performing block withholding attack.
So they are getting paid while the number of actually found blocks drops.
There are at least 2 pools offering PPS - BTCGuild and gigavps' private pool.
While the fees are significant, it's a lot cheaper than just turning off yor mining operations.
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November 09, 2013, 03:50:18 AM
 #37

I think it could also be some of the early asic hardware being shut down....basically usb erupters are useless, Japalpeno's are just like 25 usb erupters so they are useless as well, do the gen 1 ASICMiner blades still make anything on a daily basis?
 


http://eligius.st/~wizkid057/newstats/topcontributors.php

Look at the bottom 2/3 of that list... I don't think a lot of people are shutting down miners.
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November 09, 2013, 07:01:27 AM
 #38

Since the difficulty is adjusted based on the entire 2016 block period, reducing the hash rate during the last few days would have little effect on the actual adjustment value.  The only thing turning off your miner(s) during the last few days does is to reduce your own income at the lower difficulty - which makes no sense.

This ^^^^^^^

No conspiracy here, just some miners switch to other coins when they are more profitable to mine.



+1

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November 09, 2013, 07:26:00 AM
 #39

Since the difficulty is adjusted based on the entire 2016 block period, reducing the hash rate during the last few days would have little effect on the actual adjustment value.  The only thing turning off your miner(s) during the last few days does is to reduce your own income at the lower difficulty - which makes no sense.

This ^^^^^^^

No conspiracy here, just some miners switch to other coins when they are more profitable to mine.



+1
Huh, hundreds of Th/s switched to other coins? Show me these coins I want to see them being mined to death.
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November 09, 2013, 10:45:13 AM
 #40

Since the difficulty is adjusted based on the entire 2016 block period, reducing the hash rate during the last few days would have little effect on the actual adjustment value.  The only thing turning off your miner(s) during the last few days does is to reduce your own income at the lower difficulty - which makes no sense.

This ^^^^^^^

No conspiracy here, just some miners switch to other coins when they are more profitable to mine.



I don't think so, seems to me Bitcoin is the most profitable to mine.....
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