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Author Topic: Bitcoin Biggest Issue (Service Giving Scams)  (Read 1740 times)
gollum
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November 07, 2013, 05:38:45 PM
 #21

I see two great issues with bitcoin comparing it to Paypal+Fiat:

Not scalable for millions of users: Paypal can handle millions of transactions/day - Bitcoin cannot, and it would require revolutionary changes to the protocol to fix that problem

Deflation: Many central banks aims to have a stable and low inflation rate of a couple percent per year - Bitcoin will go from extremely inflationary to extremely deflationary in just a decade

The combination of low scalability in terms of transactions per second, and deflation makes bitcoin a bad currency/payment method for online commerce.
It reminds me more of gold, not easy to transfer but very good as a store of value.
The deflationary attribute of bitcoin can make it very valuable, but that's very bad as a currency for commerce. Why should I spend bitcoins to buy stuff now, if its value doubles in a month? I use my dollars instead and let the bitcoin gain value more and more...

Either bitcoin has to evolve and handle this two problems, or some alt-coin will come and grab a decent market share the coming years.

I believe the monetary base of a new currency should have an S-shape, low inflation of 10%/year in first stage, high inflation of at most 100%/year in the second stage, and low inflation of 3% again afterwards and for ever. The inflation must be 3% to compensate for the deflationary effect of lost coins and hoarded coins, the real inflation will be 1-2%.

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The Bitcoin network protocol was designed to be extremely flexible. It can be used to create timed transactions, escrow transactions, multi-signature transactions, etc. The current features of the client only hint at what will be possible in the future.
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November 07, 2013, 09:26:49 PM
 #22

I see two great issues with bitcoin comparing it to Paypal+Fiat:

Not scalable for millions of users: Paypal can handle millions of transactions/day - Bitcoin cannot, and it would require revolutionary changes to the protocol to fix that problem

Deflation: Many central banks aims to have a stable and low inflation rate of a couple percent per year - Bitcoin will go from extremely inflationary to extremely deflationary in just a decade

The combination of low scalability in terms of transactions per second, and deflation makes bitcoin a bad currency/payment method for online commerce.
It reminds me more of gold, not easy to transfer but very good as a store of value.
The deflationary attribute of bitcoin can make it very valuable, but that's very bad as a currency for commerce. Why should I spend bitcoins to buy stuff now, if its value doubles in a month? I use my dollars instead and let the bitcoin gain value more and more...

Either bitcoin has to evolve and handle this two problems, or some alt-coin will come and grab a decent market share the coming years.

I believe the monetary base of a new currency should have an S-shape, low inflation of 10%/year in first stage, high inflation of at most 100%/year in the second stage, and low inflation of 3% again afterwards and for ever. The inflation must be 3% to compensate for the deflationary effect of lost coins and hoarded coins, the real inflation will be 1-2%.




You have some good points!, thanks.
Do you think there is a coin currently availble that gets close to your discription of an online trade currency?

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November 07, 2013, 09:29:15 PM
 #23

Not scalable for millions of users: Paypal can handle millions of transactions/day - Bitcoin cannot, and it would require revolutionary changes to the protocol to fix that problem

I have seen you make this claim several times before. I don't recall seeing your derivation thereof. Please show your work. The numerical assumptions that go into your proof will help to target the parts that need improvement.

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gollum
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November 07, 2013, 10:15:22 PM
 #24

Not scalable for millions of users: Paypal can handle millions of transactions/day - Bitcoin cannot, and it would require revolutionary changes to the protocol to fix that problem

I have seen you make this claim several times before. I don't recall seeing your derivation thereof. Please show your work. The numerical assumptions that go into your proof will help to target the parts that need improvement.
My hypothesis is simple: bitcoin relies on a blockchain that is copied and evaluated by ALL nodes in the network. millions of users daily would mean that the blockchains grows to terrabytes in size, and the nodes will need to allocate maybe 10% of that amount in RAM (more than 100 GB RAM).
And each block itself has limits in how many transactions can be handled per block.
The limit for bitcoin is 7 tps (transactions per second) compared to PayPals 100 tps or VISAs 8500 tps.

Bottlenecks for running bitcoin is: HDD, RAM, network speed. You could of course have several heavy datacenters around the world doing the work, but then we are back to a centralized system and the whole point of bitcoin being decentralized is lost. I believe this issue can be solved, but it should be handled before its to late, otherwise people will lose confidence in bitcoin.

More info on: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Scalability
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322748
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November 08, 2013, 02:21:58 AM
 #25

Not scalable for millions of users: Paypal can handle millions of transactions/day - Bitcoin cannot, and it would require revolutionary changes to the protocol to fix that problem

I have seen you make this claim several times before. I don't recall seeing your derivation thereof. Please show your work. The numerical assumptions that go into your proof will help to target the parts that need improvement.
My hypothesis is simple: bitcoin relies on a blockchain that is copied and evaluated by ALL nodes in the network.

All that want a copy of the blockchain, yes...

Quote from: gollum
millions of users daily would mean that the blockchains grows to terrabytes in size,

Do you have an equation to justify this assertion? And even so, who cares? You can buy a 4TiB HDD today for about 0.333 XBT. Two years from now, the same _dollar_ cost will buy you 8TiB. Filesystems that scale to EiB are readily available. Who cares about storage?

Quote from: gollum

and the nodes will need to allocate maybe 10% of that amount in RAM (more than 100 GB RAM).

This claim I am somewhat more skeptical of. Care to show your work? Even so, 16 GiB costs under one XBT today, and Moore's axoim shows no signs of stopping...

Quote from: gollum
And each block itself has limits in how many transactions can be handled per block.

I am sure it does. What are those limits? Are these endemic to the protocol, or merely parameters used in the current clients?

Quote from: gollum
The limit for bitcoin is 7 tps (transactions per second) compared to PayPals 100 tps or VISAs 8500 tps.

i was not aware of this number. Probably due to the fact that whatever it is, is enough for the time being. Where does this number come from? So we only need to increase the throughput 15x to match PayPal? Sounds like a trivial slam dunk to me.

I don't know whether or not it is true, but I read that Visa's all-time-high was 27,000 tps. Doesn't seem _that_ daunting. At least in light of the fact that we don't need that throughput before the network scales at last x4,000.

Quote from: gollum
Bottlenecks for running bitcoin is: HDD, RAM, network speed. You could of course have several heavy datacenters around the world doing the work, but then we are back to a centralized system and the whole point of bitcoin being decentralized is lost.

As far as I care, I will consider it decentralized as long as there are no arbitrary barriers to anyone who wants to start up a full node. I do not consider dollar or time cost to be a valid consideration in 'is it decentralized?'

Quote from: gollum
I believe this issue can be solved, but it should be handled before its to late, otherwise people will lose confidence in bitcoin.

I believe it will be solved. By the time it matters. If for no other reason, because the code base is open source, and there is plenty time for even li'l ol' me to learn the code well enough to make the necessary adjustments.

Anyone with a campaign ad in their signature -- for an organization with which they are not otherwise affiliated -- is automatically deducted credibility points.

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gollum
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November 08, 2013, 03:11:53 AM
 #26

Quote from: gollum
Bottlenecks for running bitcoin is: HDD, RAM, network speed. You could of course have several heavy datacenters around the world doing the work, but then we are back to a centralized system and the whole point of bitcoin being decentralized is lost.

As far as I care, I will consider it decentralized as long as there are no arbitrary barriers to anyone who wants to start up a full node. I do not consider dollar or time cost to be a valid consideration in 'is it decentralized?'
The bottlenecks I'm talking about is not about hardware being expensive, but most regular users are not going to sacrifice 90% of their PCs hardware capacity just for the sake of running a bitcoin node, so they will instead use bitcoin wallet in the cloud. The blockchain is right now eating up 20% of my laptop SSD so Im considering to uninstall the bitcoin client...

So we end up having a few datacenters running bitcoin nodes, and that's how the banks are operated: redundant infrastructure, but centralized.
The goal should be to keep bitcoin both scalable and decentralized (easy to run a node for small guys like me and you).
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November 08, 2013, 03:30:47 AM
 #27

A possible solution of course is to stop using bitcoin for small transactions.  There already are many different crypto currencies and likely they will continue to grow.  So you might have a few that are long term wealth storage and others more for everyday use.  It's also been speculated that these certain limits are good because it makes bitcoin more viable because eventually fees have to be high enough to pay miners to support the network when there are no more block rewards.

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