Calling it: Peak of $1,600 by the end of the year

[Elwar]

The price will peak at $1600 then fall back down to hold steady around $1,000 for several months.

Let it be known.

It is so.

[wobber]

The price will peak at $1600 then fall back down to hold steady around $1,000 for several months.

Let it be known.

It is so.

Sent to all my friends. Let it be known.

[XxionxX]

And so it was written.

[Xendrios]

I think it'll go higher :-) 5k+ a pop

[Shallow]

Heh. Not going to happen.

[smoothie]

lol well i tend to think my forecast of $400 by the end of the year will be quite conservative.

[Operatr]

lol well i tend to think my forecast of $400 by the end of the year will be quite conservative.

At this rate it will be $400 by days end tomorrow 

Gox hit $320 a minute ago

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

$1600 would be surprising, but only mildly. The key thing here, in addition to China, is that the BIT took off. That was the x-factor: are people actually buying the BIT or is it just languishing? People are buying, bigtime ($15 million invested in 6 weeks so far). Now that it has a track record of big gains, more will pile in. This is going to be huge, as a severe coin shortage happens due to them all being vacuumed up by Second Market, and it will manifest as a sort of organic series of little panic buys as we have been seeing.

Take a deep breath and let it all in. Double check your security because the bullseye on your stash is growing exponentially as well.

[mvidetto]

Could be $1600, I mean what happens when there's no more coins on gox to sell?  All the other exchanges will likely follow a giant price rise.

[alexeft]

To DA MOOOOOOOOOON!!!!! 

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

The growth rate we seem to be following now is the same growth rate we followed in Jan-March 2013: the price doubles every three weeks or so. We have 2.5 of these doublings left in the year, bringing us roughly to $1600 if the trend holds (and it did hold in Jan-March). 

[zachcope]

I fully expect a march up a mountain, then a flight into the sky, followed by a rocket launch to space, with subsequent trip to the moon, all prior to a visit to Mars, all of which is merely the warm up for a trip to another galaxy far far away...


              BTC
           BTCBTCBTCBTC
        BTCBTCBTCBTCBTCBTCBTC

[the_sunship]

I fully expect a march up a mountain, then a flight into the sky, followed by a rocket launch to space, with subsequent trip to the moon, all prior to a visit to Mars, all of which is merely the warm up for a trip to another galaxy far far away...


              BTC
           BTCBTCBTCBTC
        BTCBTCBTCBTCBTCBTCBTC

perfect lyrics to the new bitcoin rally song....!

[rocks]

$1600 would be surprising, but only mildly. The key thing here, in addition to China, is that the BIT took off. That was the x-factor: are people actually buying the BIT or is it just languishing? People are buying, bigtime ($15 million invested in 6 weeks so far). Now that it has a track record of big gains, more will pile in. This is going to be huge, as a severe coin shortage happens due to them all being vacuumed up by Second Market, and it will manifest as a sort of organic series of little panic buys as we have been seeing.

This is what I think most in the financial community still do not fully understand.

They are used to working with investment instruments like the GLD ETF, where if there is a temporary short of the underlying asset they just fractionalize it and create paper promises (example GLD holding little physical gold and mostly paper).

Bitcoin is not fractionalizable, this is a massive difference. Wall street of course will try to fractionalize it, but will get badly burned because there is  no central entity to bail out bad/risky decisions.

[Elwar]

We are still on track for this.

If we hit $500 in 10 days we will be about 2 weeks away from $1500-$2000.

It will reach that height, as far as the correction...I believe the Chinese influence throws those results into unknown territory.

[BCB]

Wanna bet?

[SheHadMANHands]

[bassclef]

And so it was written.

And as it is such, so also as such is it unto you.

[zachcope]

I fully expect a march up a mountain, then a flight into the sky, followed by a rocket launch to space, with subsequent trip to the moon, all prior to a visit to Mars, all of which is merely the warm up for a trip to another galaxy far far away...


              BTC
           BTCBTCBTCBTC
        BTCBTCBTCBTCBTCBTCBTC

perfect lyrics to the new bitcoin rally song....!

Please feel free to create it!

[zeroday]

get ready for $5000 in 2014.
Just don't miss all these sweet bear traps by the way 

[beetcoin]

i just.. don't know. i kind of regret selling my .5 $250/btc, but it wasn't that much of a loss. the game is too wildly unpredictable for me to be brave enough to play arbitrage.

[BitCoiner2012]

i just.. don't know. i kind of regret selling my .5 $250/btc, but it wasn't that much of a loss. the game is too wildly unpredictable for me to be brave enough to play arbitrage.

Simply change your perspective. Longer term analysis, deflationary in a world of inflating fiat.

[accord01]

This is actually not far fetched at all.  Considering the exponential momentum and publicity crypto has picked up and the massive amounts of fiat cash reserves in the world.

[Maged]

The price will peak at $1600 then fall back down to hold steady around $1,000 for several months.

Let it be known.

It is so.

Sounds about right. My own calculations say that we will at least break $1000 in this current bubble, but I don't know much more beyond that...

[Ozymandias]

If I'm understanding lucif's/masterluc's elliot wave analysis, 1250+ could be the top of the historic wave 3 (wave 1 = the rise from 0.05 to 32 and was roughly 2.8 orders of magnitudes and wave 3 = the rise from 1.99 to at least 1255 if it is no more than 2.8 magnitudes as it is expected to be)... if one were to believe in such things...  

Did we complet wave 4 of 5 of (5)?


What do you Elliott guys think?

IMO, didn't completed even 3 of 5.

EDIT:

3 of historical 5 running.

[notme]

If I'm understanding lucif's/masterluc's elliot wave analysis, 1250+ could be the top of the historic wave 3 (wave 1 = the rise from 0.05 to 32 and was roughly 2.8 orders of magnitudes and wave 3 = the rise from 1.99 to at least 1255 if it is no more than 2.8 magnitudes as it is expected to be)... if one were to believe in such things...  

Did we complet wave 4 of 5 of (5)?


What do you Elliott guys think?

IMO, didn't completed even 3 of 5.

I thought he was talking about wave 3 of the five waves off the $65 bottom.  My count has this structure as the historic wave five.

[Ozymandias]

If I'm understanding lucif's/masterluc's elliot wave analysis, 1250+ could be the top of the historic wave 3 (wave 1 = the rise from 0.05 to 32 and was roughly 2.8 orders of magnitudes and wave 3 = the rise from 1.99 to at least 1255 if it is no more than 2.8 magnitudes as it is expected to be)... if one were to believe in such things...  

Did we complet wave 4 of 5 of (5)?


What do you Elliott guys think?

IMO, didn't completed even 3 of 5.

I thought he was talking about wave 3 of the five waves off the $65 bottom.  My count has this structure as the historic wave five.

I may have read in some of my own bullishness, but based on the relative small size of the 266 bubble (compared in log scale to the 32 bubble which I consider the top of historic wave 1) I don't have it as the end of historic wave 3 but a mere detour to the top of 1250+

[AlgoSwan]

The price will peak at $1600 then fall back down to hold steady around $1,000 for several months.

Let it be known.

It is so.

This is a very conservative prediction. Four digits in BTC will open a new door to to five digits. Limited-supply and increased-demand is the main reason for this uptrend. Whenever either side is broken trend reverse.

[jubalix]

$1600 would be surprising, but only mildly. The key thing here, in addition to China, is that the BIT took off. That was the x-factor: are people actually buying the BIT or is it just languishing? People are buying, bigtime ($15 million invested in 6 weeks so far). Now that it has a track record of big gains, more will pile in. This is going to be huge, as a severe coin shortage happens due to them all being vacuumed up by Second Market, and it will manifest as a sort of organic series of little panic buys as we have been seeing.

This is what I think most in the financial community still do not fully understand.

They are used to working with investment instruments like the GLD ETF, where if there is a temporary short of the underlying asset they just fractionalize it and create paper promises (example GLD holding little physical gold and mostly paper).

Bitcoin is not fractionalizable, this is a massive difference. Wall street of course will try to fractionalize it, but will get badly burned because there is  no central entity to bail out bad/risky decisions.

Every other financial instrument exists with the boundaries of state FIAT currency, bitcoin is competing at with the FIAT currency level. 99.99999% of current economists and traders do not comprehend this fact, and the fact that  no one ever made money trading shares etc, they just swap around and existing amount of fiat money and change its velocity.

[Elwar]

We are still on track if we hit $500 by Tuesday which appears to be very possible.

[Rupture]

$1,400 is more likely

[wopwop]

$10,000

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

$10,000

That's roughly where we'd be if the April crash never had happened and we had instead continued the Jan-March trend.

[Elwar]

My calculation was close based on hitting $500 by Tuesday. We hit that 2 days early so the price may go up a little higher than $1600.

Either way, we will be at $1,000 by the end of the week based on past performance and climb quickly to the peak Thanksgiving weekend.

[btcprice]

My calculation was close based on hitting $500 by Tuesday. We hit that 2 days early so the price may go up a little higher than $1600.

Either way, we will be at $1,000 by the end of the week based on past performance and climb quickly to the peak Thanksgiving weekend.

Thanks for your input.

[Elwar]

Looks like someone tried to throw a quick pump and dump in there to trigger weak hands.

We are still on target with a supported price around $700 today to hit the $1000 target by the weekend and $1600 in time for Thanksgiving turkey.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

My outlandish call in Feb/March/April for $10,000 by Christmas doesn't look so impossible anymore

[Bitbuy]

Although 1600 $ begins to sound reasonable; I do think that 10000 $ is still a bridge too far (for now)..

[viboracecata]

Seems we will get this in the near future.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Although 1600 $ begins to sound reasonable; I do think that 10000 $ is still a bridge too far (for now)..

Just to clarify, so do I.

[Elwar]

That little dip felt a lot like the dip we had when it went from $900 to $500 before evening out around $800 for a few days.

From there it climbed quite a bit.

$1,600 by the end of the year is very possible.

[fred1111]

That little dip felt a lot like the dip we had when it went from $900 to $500 before evening out around $800 for a few days.

From there it climbed quite a bit.

$1,600 by the end of the year is very possible.

It's likely to be more.
People talk to people they don't see most of the year during Christmas and new years eve. This effect is going to be priced in before the January 1st, leading to a bubble which will pop some time in January above $2000. Then we will be back hovering just above $1000 like today.

[Bitbuy]

well, I guess we won't be seeing 1600 USD then...

[Oldminer]

well, I guess we won't be seeing 1600 USD then...

How do we get a refund?

[redwoods]

Price continuing to drop like a turd 

[nwfella]

2 weeks!!

[Bitbuy]

well, I guess we won't be seeing 1600 USD then...

How do we get a refund?

Talk to Elwar, I'm sure he'll understand.

The price will peak at $1600 then fall back down to hold steady around $1,000 for several months.

Let it be known.

It is so.

[BCB]

Based on historical peaks and valleys the next peak will be $5000 before the end of Q2 2014

(This is not investment advice)

[Elwar]

Yep, that estimate was based upon this:




But the tip didn't happen, we got this:

[Bitbuy]

That can only imply that the tip still needs to come, right?  

[T.Stuart]

Can I ask just out of interest in psychological factors, out of those who think it's going back up to $1,600 by the end of the year what is the ratio of new people who missed out on the run up in November?

[piramida]

Can I ask just out of interest in psychological factors, out of those who think it's going back up to $1,600 by the end of the year what is the ratio of new people who missed out on the run up in November?

13.5%