Technical Analysis Contest With Merit Rewards

[atrocityx]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4935388.msg44483975#msg44483975

just posted this thread today warning about a short squeeze is imminent, should have posted here, but oh well, Die 100X BEARS

[1715408022]

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[1715408022]

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[1715408022]

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[1715408022]

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[El duderino_]

Indeed lately the market is not easy to predict.
But here it's just a contest, nobody will judge you or invest on the charts you will create. It's just for fun, with some merits to gain and maybe we will find the luckiest guy of the forum (or the greastest chartist).
There is more than 10 merits here and even an art contest! If I were a junior member I will be more than eager to participate and try to win those merits.

yeah i would like to see some get creative and put in there charts .....

[TomCrypto]

The contest is always on with 13 merits in the reward pool!
I know that the market is hard to predict this days but I'm sure some of us can do some good prediction over small time period (3 or 4 days).
 
Dear Technical Analysts of the BTCT forum show us good Charts and prediuction!

[Deubila]

This contest will not do well. Usually contests have a target date and target price. A one hour chart cannot show that.

I'm also wondering about this. Most of the contestants have clear time and place. The goal and value of the goal in the contest. But there is no mention here.

[TomCrypto]

This contest will not do well. Usually contests have a target date and target price. A one hour chart cannot show that.

I'm also wondering about this. Most of the contestants have clear time and place. The goal and value of the goal in the contest. But there is no mention here.

Thank you for your input Deubila but I would say I don't understand it fully. Could you elaborate more? I already answered to Bustedsynx on this matter:

The one-hour chart is the minimum timeframe, participants can use any other timeframe greater than 1H if they want. I didn't allow lower timeframes because I'm not 24/7 on BTCT and therefore if someone would have posted a 1m timeframe charts with a time target 15 min later I would not have been able to see if he didn't modify its post after the time target.

Target date and target price is specified in the rules: They are defined by the participant (not everyone is a intra-day trader) but the time target have to be before the 13th of September. When the contest will end I will calculate an accuracy score for each chart for time and price and it will allow me to choose the winner on the different categories.

For example, Contestant A could use a 1H timeframe with a target date two days later while contestant B could use a 1D timeframe with a target 15 days later.
Each contestant defines its own target either in time and date.

Nowadays it's already kind of hard to generate technical analysis and therefore when I set the rules of the contest I didn't want to put any more constraints on the technical analysis because each analyst have its own way to do it (everyone works in different timeframe, with different target date and price depending on their analysis) and to put a specific target date is a really big constraint.


But if you have any advice on the rules, I will be glad to update them

[atrocityx]

I think the short squeeze is still imminent and the pressure will reach the 7200 range this week with 4 more days of institutional trading.. This will be the war zone because tons of whale's stops are right above here so there will be an all out margin massacre in this range, but I still think ultimately a short squeeze is in order which is in line with my chart.  Do NOT enter this area in margin especially above 10X because I think literally all longs and shorts will get absolutely rekt in the tug of war, expect high turbulence as shorts try to deal with the mounting pressure from below.

The more interesting trade maybe ETH however as it tries to push through the 290-295 range, expect a massive short squeeze in this region that if bitcoin continues its move upwards could send ETH way north of 300.00 as the relief rally continues.

[HairyMaclairy]

Cross posting my wave prediction from Wall Observer:



Peak of $7250 around 2 September then fall again.  Explanation:  its the vibe.  

[TomCrypto]

I think the short squeeze is still imminent and the pressure will reach the 7200 range this week with 4 more days of institutional trading.. This will be the war zone because tons of whale's stops are right above here so there will be an all out margin massacre in this range, but I still think ultimately a short squeeze is in order which is in line with my chart.  Do NOT enter this area in margin especially above 10X because I think literally all longs and shorts will get absolutely rekt in the tug of war, expect high turbulence as shorts try to deal with the mounting pressure from below.

The more interesting trade maybe ETH however as it tries to push through the 290-295 range, expect a massive short squeeze in this region that if bitcoin continues its move upwards could send ETH way north of 300.00 as the relief rally continues.

Indeed the next couple of days should be quite interesting!

Cross posting my wave prediction from Wall Observer:



Peak of $7250 around 2 September then fall again.  Explanation:  its the vibe.  

Thank you HairyMaclairy for posting your "Vibe/wave" based prediction. Participation duly noted.

[atrocityx]

Here's another trade I was looking at just for fun, maybe looking to play the uptick on eth/btc... this is somewhat of a risky trade, but I feel eth is also in danger of a huge short squeeze.. its not a wonderful ratio for scalping compared to maybe alts right now, but this one hasn't taken off yet, could still fall through though so I'm gonna take a stop loss pretty tight if I enter this trade.

[TomCrypto]

10 days remaining in this contest! Don't forget to post here your charts to earn a chance to win some of the merits in function of your prediction accuracy!

For the moment the prediction of Hairy Maclairy is quite good!

Cross posting my wave prediction from Wall Observer:



Peak of $7250 around 2 September then fall again.  Explanation:  its the vibe.  

Atrocityx's prediction is around 7779 for the 13th of September!


And there is still time also to post your ART Chart to compete with micgoosens

[atrocityx]

[Update]: So far so good with the short squeeze.. lots of upward pressure on shorts and they must defend their position here or its gonna cascade to 8k... Theres so much resistance right above us here though..
We got the 200 Day MA looming above in the 7700 range (rejected the upward momentum 4 times in a row now, see chart..)
You have the entering of the ichimoku cloud.. setting up a TK cross inside the cloud (first time in a while, more bullish than below)
You have two fibonacci retracement areas also piled in this one area.. and you have the trend line.. this is a lot to bare but I think we can sneak above this trend line and look to hold above (even if we trail it down for a bit) and look for a bounce when ready to go higher... this area is probably the most important area on the chart for months to come, and whether we pass or fail here could have months of implication (provided ETF doesn't pass).

[Victorycoin]

I have been trading for couple of years now and I know crypto or not, TA still have its role to play because it's for experienced traders what navigational aids are to pilots and captains, no more, no less! As such, it's the simpler - the clearer and better, trading is complex already, it's made less confusing by use of TA tools.

He was a forecast I put forward on 10th of JULY in this thread
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4490850.msg41908569#msg41908569



Looking at the present market setup - it's remains almost same market outlook.


Therefore present sell off is simply profit taking and would be contained before $6100. Then the upbeat for possibility of SEC approval of one of the ETF applications would push press above $7459 before September 13 and well over $8500 after September 21, if it's a yes.

[TomCrypto]

Therefore present sell off is simply profit taking and would be contained before $6100. Then the upbeat for possibility of SEC approval of one of the ETF applications would push press above $7459 before September 13 and well over $8500 after September 21, if it's a yes.

Thank you for your participation, let's see how your prediction will perform!

[TomCrypto]

I added the contribution of each participant on the first post.

Let's go everybody, less than one week to post you last Technical analysis before the end of this contest!

[TomCrypto]

The contest ended two days ago and I will now present the results :

• Our great winner is HairyMaclairy when on the 28 th of august he predicted here: “Peak of $7250 around 2 September then fall again.  Explanation:  its the vibe.”  
  And he was quite right! On the 2th of September, BTC price was between 7130$ (low) and 7340$ (high). Then BTC rised up to the Fib resistance at 7400 and then started to dump to near 6000$. Due to its quite accurate prediction, I reward HairyMaclairy with 7 merits.
• On the 15 th of August, Atrocityx predicted the price of 7779 for the 13th of September as you can see here here. The price target was not achieved accurately but I will allow him 2 merits for his works on patterns.
• On the 6th of September, Victorycoin stated here : “Therefore present sell off is simply profit taking and would be contained before $6100. Then the upbeat for possibility of SEC approval of one of the ETF applications would push press above $7459 before September 13”. Unfortunatly BTC did not gather enough strength to break above 6550$. But his works with Bollinger Bands is awarded with 2 merits.
• Our Beloved Micgoossens demonstrated a magnificent piece of ch-ART on the 17th of august as you can see here and it will allow him to win 2 merits

Thank you very much to all the participants and to the people that contributed to the reward pool and allow this contest to run. The goal of this contest was to try to give an incentive to allow more TA on the forum and therefore I hoped that more people joined but the current market and price manipulation were not the best time for charting. I may try another contest later when the market conditions will be better!
See you soon!

[El duderino_]

Hairry’s crushing

[El duderino_]

And keep up organize Another game always fun to watch

[TomCrypto]

I'll do another contest later then when the market will be better.
Is anyone has a suggestion in term of rules modification in order to improve the next contest?

[kryptogunner]

I'll do another contest later then when the market will be better.
Is anyone has a suggestion in term of rules modification in order to improve the next contest?

To make it fun and more appealing, reduce the timeframe of contest from 1 month to say 1 week or 10 days. Hourly charts or up would be a good enough for it. add BTC with 2 -3 other highly traded coins/ tokens with an option to choose from so that one can post the best trade instead of forcing a trade in BTC alone. more importntly, keep the thread alive. I guess most serious traders dont know this thread even exists.

Ty for this initiative. I personally would like to participate !

[TomCrypto]

To make it fun and more appealing, reduce the timeframe of contest from 1 month to say 1 week or 10 days. Hourly charts or up would be a good enough for it. add BTC with 2 -3 other highly traded coins/ tokens with an option to choose from so that one can post the best trade instead of forcing a trade in BTC alone. more importntly, keep the thread alive. I guess most serious traders dont know this thread even exists.

Ty for this initiative. I personally would like to participate !

Thank you for your suggestions Kryptogunner.
For the next one I will wait a little in order to gather some new merits for the reward pool.