Bitcoin Forum
December 06, 2016, 09:52:01 PM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.13.1  [Torrent].
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 8 »  All
  Print  
Author Topic: Recession Imminent  (Read 10266 times)
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 07, 2011, 10:45:33 PM
 #101

one of the things i follow is investor sentiment.  at the bottom of 3/09 we were at 2% bulls.  both at the 2007 top and May of 2011 we were at 98% bulls.  when conditions get this extreme with P/E's in the mid 20's (never did to single digits like at most recession bottoms) it becomes extremely difficult for the primary dealers to book profits and indeed we saw a horrendous earnings season for the financials.  they have been in decline since February.  that by itself is a HUGE red flag.  most of their profits the last 2 yrs have been from TRADING.  meaning to me that they were using Fed pomo money to destroy the shorts on an unprecedented ramp to May.  believe me, i know.  progressively more shorts closed their position and went long to "not fight the Fed".  so now we're in a situation where the primary dealers can't make money anymore being long.  so whats the next logical step from their standpoint?  go short and ramp volatility.  traders always say they love volatility.  well, here you go.  we've seen the VIX go to the high 30's this last week and probably higher.  everyone's on the inflation side of the boat and i'm alone on the other side altho i'd bet the primary dealers are over here with me just waiting for the panic as am i.

as i write this gold is up modestly, stock futures are down BIG and Bitcoin has just SOARED  to 8.5.  two out of 3 i'll take and i bet gold will soon plunge.
1481061121
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481061121

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481061121
Reply with quote  #2

1481061121
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1481061121
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481061121

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481061121
Reply with quote  #2

1481061121
Report to moderator
1481061121
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481061121

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481061121
Reply with quote  #2

1481061121
Report to moderator
johnyj
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1806


Beyond Imagination


View Profile
August 07, 2011, 11:31:59 PM
 #102

Although I have some gold short position, I hope gold not going down, otherwise we really could not find the next bubble to save the world Undecided

cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 07, 2011, 11:34:27 PM
 #103

Although I have some gold short position, I hope gold not going down, otherwise we really could not find the next bubble to save the world Undecided

why couldn't that new bubble be Bitcoin?
johnyj
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1806


Beyond Imagination


View Profile
August 08, 2011, 12:03:52 AM
 #104

Although I have some gold short position, I hope gold not going down, otherwise we really could not find the next bubble to save the world Undecided

why couldn't that new bubble be Bitcoin?

I have read such a rule and agreed with it:

Any kind of bubble, if it want to be very successful, must have 2 criteria:

1. It should be very simple outside that everyone on the street can immediately understand and accept it
2. It should have enough complex pricing model, and most of the scholars can not prove it is a bubble

Just like someone posted, anyone on the planet, from a chinese factory worker to an indian farmer will all accept a gold bar, not a usb flash drive with a wallet.dat stored  Cheesy


cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 08, 2011, 12:08:10 AM
 #105

great investments are never seen by the masses.  poor ones are often too obvious.
johnyj
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1806


Beyond Imagination


View Profile
August 08, 2011, 12:15:08 AM
 #106

great investments are never seen by the masses.  poor ones are often too obvious.

I also joined this game with such kind of hope, BTC have the potential, the bubble could be 100 times bigger than real world economy bubble, who knows

cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 08, 2011, 06:30:51 PM
 #107

the stock mkt crash convinces me the Fed is trying desperately to get gold /silver down.
netrin
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 322


FirstBits: 168Bc


View Profile
August 09, 2011, 01:53:06 AM
 #108

the stock mkt crash convinces me the Fed is trying desperately to get gold /silver down.

I'm properly convinced now that private bank debt is clean the Fed can and must deflate the dollar. However, I don't see how the Fed can bring gold down without taking everything else down first. And to what end, to save that same everything else?

Or perhaps they only need to shake the pm market?

Greenlandic tupilak. Hand carved, traditional cursed bone figures. Sorry, polar bear, walrus and human remains not available for export.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 09, 2011, 02:02:36 AM
 #109

the stock mkt crash convinces me the Fed is trying desperately to get gold /silver down.

I'm properly convinced now that private bank debt is clean the Fed can and must deflate the dollar. However, I don't see how the Fed can bring gold down without taking everything else down first. And to what end, to save that same everything else?

Or perhaps they only need to shake the pm market?

you're right.  before your very eyes they are letting equities crash and its now starting to drag silver down with it just like the mining stocks that already have been killed.   i truly think gold has to follow soon after they get as many ppl into it before the takedown.  oil and soft commods already have been hit too.  its just a matter of time.

why would the Fed give up its reserve currency which is its only franchise?  tomorrow if the FOMC doesn't say anything about further QE, gold should tank.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 09, 2011, 02:04:49 AM
 #110


I'm properly convinced now that private bank debt is clean the Fed can and must deflate the dollar.

what do you mean by this?  get the USD to rise?
CurbsideProphet
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 672


View Profile
August 09, 2011, 02:41:46 AM
 #111

An interesting analysis (not mine):

Quote
When the money supply grows faster than real GDP, the extra money causes inflation.

John Williams (at Shadow Government Statistics) posts M1 and M2 (both published by the Federal Reserve).

More important, Mr. Williams recalculates and publishes two critical numbers that the government no longer does: M3 (the money supply including large institutional investors) and the original Consumer Price Index, before the government suppressed it with "hedonic adjustments."

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

Mr. Williams shows that the annual growth of M1, M2 and M3 are all higher than real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth. This is inflationary. Mr. Williams calculates real inflation far above the government-massaged inflation rate.

The government reports the real GDP growth rate as 1.9% but Mr. Williams calculates it as negative 2.5%. This is because real GDP is adjusted by inflation.

Any growth in M1, M2 or M3 in excess of GDP growth is excess.

The excess money supply came from the Federal Reserve lending money --- money that it creates out of thin air (contrary to Mr. Bernanke's explicit denial that this is what the Fed does).

Bernanke is of the opinion that the Great Depression was mainly caused by monetary contraction, the consequence of poor policymaking by the American Federal Reserve System and continued crisis in the banking system.  In this view, the Federal Reserve, by not acting, allowed the money supply as measured by the M2 to shrink by one-third from 1929–1933, thereby transforming a normal recession into the Great Depression. 

Bernanke is staying true to his word by increasing the money supply while GDP contracts.  We will see more QE even if thinly veiled under another name.

1ProphetnvP8ju2SxxRvVvyzCtTXDgLPJV
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 09, 2011, 02:55:19 AM
 #112

An interesting analysis (not mine):

Quote
When the money supply grows faster than real GDP, the extra money causes inflation.

John Williams (at Shadow Government Statistics) posts M1 and M2 (both published by the Federal Reserve).

More important, Mr. Williams recalculates and publishes two critical numbers that the government no longer does: M3 (the money supply including large institutional investors) and the original Consumer Price Index, before the government suppressed it with "hedonic adjustments."

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

Mr. Williams shows that the annual growth of M1, M2 and M3 are all higher than real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth. This is inflationary. Mr. Williams calculates real inflation far above the government-massaged inflation rate.

The government reports the real GDP growth rate as 1.9% but Mr. Williams calculates it as negative 2.5%. This is because real GDP is adjusted by inflation.

Any growth in M1, M2 or M3 in excess of GDP growth is excess.

The excess money supply came from the Federal Reserve lending money --- money that it creates out of thin air (contrary to Mr. Bernanke's explicit denial that this is what the Fed does).

Bernanke is of the opinion that the Great Depression was mainly caused by monetary contraction, the consequence of poor policymaking by the American Federal Reserve System and continued crisis in the banking system.  In this view, the Federal Reserve, by not acting, allowed the money supply as measured by the M2 to shrink by one-third from 1929–1933, thereby transforming a normal recession into the Great Depression. 

Bernanke is staying true to his word by increasing the money supply while GDP contracts.  We will see more QE even if thinly veiled under another name.

hi Curb.  you're right about Berspankme and i've read his paper from 2002.  i would only say that ppl change their minds with time too and in the face of contradictory evidence.

yes, i used to subscribe to John Williams a few yrs ago and used his theories to take a stagflationary approach to what happened in 2008 which turned out to be only half right meaning i only broke even in the end going into 2009.  disappointed, i researched heavily as to why mining and energy stocks and somewhat gold bullion got smacked and realized Prechter, Mish, and Shilling were the only ones who got it right. 

now to extrapolate their theories to this upcoming crisis is dangerous i know.  but we never washed out the bad debt in 2008 and its even grown larger depending on what you measure so i'm arguing that perhaps the Fed will lose total control and have market discipline enforced upon it.  if the stock mkt is forming a head and shoulders top since 2000 and we do an Elliott Wave phase 2 wave down this could take the Dow to the sub 4000 level.  i doubt gold could withstand that type of drawdown in liquidity. 

there are lots of theories out there and we all have to choose our own paths.  i wish all of us luck.
lemonginger
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 210


firstbits: 121vnq


View Profile
August 09, 2011, 02:57:25 AM
 #113

the stock mkt crash convinces me the Fed is trying desperately to get gold /silver down.

Wat?

Gld up yesterday, gld up tomorrow, where the hell do you think people are going to run to?
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 09, 2011, 03:02:05 AM
 #114

the stock mkt crash convinces me the Fed is trying desperately to get gold /silver down.

Wat?

Gld up yesterday, gld up tomorrow, where the hell do you think people are going to run to?

Cash.  

i'm just expressing my opinion and not shilling about it.  i could be wrong.  these things can go on longer than one anticipates.  my short on silver looks good right now.  gold not so good.  we'll see.

edit:  the bulls are definitely trying to take this thing into a parabola though.  can they do it?
netrin
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 322


FirstBits: 168Bc


View Profile
August 09, 2011, 03:05:02 AM
 #115

I'm properly convinced now that private bank debt is clean the Fed can and must deflate the dollar.
what do you mean by this?  get the USD to rise?

Well, yes. The market's response today couldn't have surprised Ben and the banks are strapped in and cleared for the plunge. It looks to me like we just shaved 11 years of gains in one day. If we repeat the fun tomorrow, we'll have shaved off a right shoulder and confirmed a reversal that'll make 1929 look like a holiday.

If Bernanke declares QE3 (by any name) then gold is cheap at any price, otherwise, paper dollars are king.




Greenlandic tupilak. Hand carved, traditional cursed bone figures. Sorry, polar bear, walrus and human remains not available for export.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 09, 2011, 03:05:45 AM
 #116

if the USD breaks down out of its consolidation pattern then mea culpa.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 09, 2011, 03:16:04 AM
 #117

I'm properly convinced now that private bank debt is clean the Fed can and must deflate the dollar.
what do you mean by this?  get the USD to rise?

Well, yes. The market's response today couldn't have surprised Ben and the banks are strapped in and cleared for the plunge. It looks to me like we just shaved 11 years of gains in one day. If we repeat the fun tomorrow, we'll have shaved off a right shoulder and confirmed a reversal that'll make 1929 look like a holiday.

If Bernanke declares QE3 (by any name) then gold is cheap at any price, otherwise, paper dollars are king.





yeah, no PPT here.  just straight down.  damn, i covered too many shorts too soon.  to me the signal is "let it go down" b/c they have an objective.
CurbsideProphet
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 672


View Profile
August 09, 2011, 03:22:27 AM
 #118

yeah, no PPT here.  just straight down.  damn, i covered too many shorts too soon.  to me the signal is "let it go down" b/c they have an objective.

Yup looking at the futures and the Asian markets it looks like I may have covered too soon as well.  I'm not going to beat myself up over it though, anyone short over the last week or two made out like bandits.  I'm content with picking the low hanging fruit.

1ProphetnvP8ju2SxxRvVvyzCtTXDgLPJV
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 09, 2011, 03:41:50 AM
 #119

this market plunge just confirms every negative thought i've had over the last 6 years about the Fed and the banking system. 

these punks "know" when the liquidity spigot is going to be shut off and on and they constantly front run.  a plunge like this isn't a natural phenomenon in this day and age.  the triple or quadruple top we had was orchestrated IMO to suck as many ppl into stocks so they could be raped. 

this is why i'm so pessimistic on the parabola that gold is now forming.  they are after it and if you buy now you're gonna get squicked.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 09, 2011, 03:44:07 AM
 #120

whoa, you guys just see the BTC ramp?
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 8 »  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!