Slim chance of finding blocks huh? (LTC)

[Dlcoates1]

So, on all the calculators I have been on, I get the same result. For my average hash rate, and my pools difficulty, finding a block in 2 weeks is less than a 2% chance.

An example:
https://www.litecoinpool.org/calc?hashrate=20&difficulty=396.553

So if this is correct, how is it I am finding blocks like nothing?
http://i83.servimg.com/u/f83/16/59/21/23/ltc_bl10.png

Does this make sense to anyone?

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[xcezzz]

your not finding blocks... only shares... which are lowered difficulty on your pool so that they can calculate a reward/payout

[Dlcoates1]

your not finding blocks... only shares... which mean the lowered difficulty of the pool you are on so that they can calculate a reward/payout

If you look closely, in 4 minutes it says it detected 4 new blocks. Is this not the same as finding a block?

[WearyWanderer]

unfortunately no it isn't  if it was you would be beyond the luckiest of the lucky based on such a speed haha, it's not impossible but that %2 may even be a little optimistic. Definitely use a pool if you're wanting to accrue anything and not having an above-mid speed.

[cebb]

You are not finding blocks. just shares to your pool.

Long poll detected a new block == There was a new block found on entire network.
Share accepted == your share has been accepted by your pool. Depending on the share difficulty and number of blocks found by your pool, you will be awarded coins when the pool round is finished.

[Dlcoates1]

Then there is something else I am not understanding. According to the PPLNS stats on my pool, My last shift is 0 blocks, 527 shares, with a 0.00000000 per-share rate and a 0.00000000 reward. Each time a new shift is started, the number of blocks increases, and the per share rate increases as well. In about 1 hour, the same shift will result in about 1 - 2 blocks, and a per share rate of 0.00000002. In about 6 hours time, it will be about 5 - 6 blocks, with a per-share rate of 0.00000004 to 0.00000005. So how and why does this increase when I am on a different shift? Also, how will I know if I have found a block?