It's getting frothy, and I'm dumping 75% of my coins

[CryptStorm]

No.  It's not.  It's a technology that's being adopted.  A stock in an established company CANNOT go logarithmic for 6 years straight but a brand-new technology CAN (difference between the early years of Microsoft and IBM during the same period).  Massive difference.  And one that experienced stock traders have complete blinders about.  

A couple months of logarithmic increase that is right on schedule (which follows 4 years of the exact same logarithmic increase that they weren't here for) and they panic sell and call everyone else idiots and throw up chicken little "sky is falling" warnings.  

My point is that the big shakers are going to crash the price so they can buy it up cheaper. That's all.

If you think Bitcoin is going up up up, and that it's not going to correct harshly like in April, you are in for a surprise.

Hi guys, great thread and good conversation. I guess the thing that I would try to add is that, essentially, everyone is right (with the exception of Bitcoin failing).

What I'm trying to say is that the pattern of Bitcoin, seems, obviously:

up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up UPUPUPUPUPUP!!!!!!!!!! AND DOOOOOOOOOOOWNNNNNNN, (This parabolic correction to the norm being where people get a wee bit fired up), up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up...

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[freethink2013]

But again this is irrelevant to my trading strategy. I trade futures, options, forex etc, have been doing so for 15 years.

You don't say.

News flash: Bitcoin ISN'T a stock.  But no wonder you keep acting like it is.

It is subject to corrections like a stock.

No.  It's not.  It's a technology that's being adopted.  A stock in an established company CANNOT go logarithmic for 6 years straight but a brand-new technology CAN (difference between the early years of Microsoft and IBM during the same period).  Massive difference.  And one that experienced stock traders have complete blinders about. 

A couple months of logarithmic increase that is right on schedule (which follows 4 years of the exact same logarithmic increase that they weren't here for) and they panic sell and call everyone else idiots and throw up chicken little "sky is falling" warnings. 

Bitcoin husband nailed it to the cooooooooooooooooooore.
All these finance experts telling me what bitcoin is going to do, and have been wrong .. oh ... 100% of the time.
The smartest of them finally acknowledged to me "This is something completely new.  Its not following the rules"
This is why their "knowledge" is going to be a stumbling block for them.

He's not saying 'sell all your bitcoin it's going to zero.' He's more saying something like 'if you sell 10 bitcoins now you'll be able to pickup 12 bitcoins at the weekend'

[kireinaha]

Bitcoin husband nailed it.
All these finance experts telling me what bitcoin is going to do, and have been wrong .. oh ... 100% of the time.
The smartest of them finally acknowledged to me "This is something completely new.  Its not following the rules"
This is why their "knowledge" is going to be a stumbling block for them.

Bitcoin is NOT a stock.  ive been saying this over and over and over.
there are some similar aspects, but many very important ones simply dont match,

How can April happen again?   Bitcoin hasn't spiked and then dropped.  April happened.  It didn't happen twice.  Doesn't take a brain surgeon to see the different shape of the lines...

I assure you that bitcoin is indeed playing by the "rules". The rules dictate that when an asset's speculation outstrips it's real world utility, a price drop is not far away. We're in the middle of a manic bull swing right now, so it might be hard for people to unplug and recognize that, but nothing has fundamentally changed with bitcoin in the past few weeks to justify a 3x rise in value. I'm not sure why the comparison to stocks means anything here. Currencies and stocks can both be purchased and speculated upon, both can be overvalued and both will eventually fall back in such situations.

[MAbtc]

Re: "the stock" issue. I don't like this all-or-nothing approach. I see a lot of this "bitcoin doesn't behave like a stock, don't analyze it as such." But, TA has nothing to do with stocks, per se. It attempts to analyze market psychology. Bitcoin does not exist inside a vacuum apart from market psychology. It is also clear to me from watching a couple very good analysts making very good entry/exit calls that there is indeed something to it.

Shrug....

[jasonjm]

But again this is irrelevant to my trading strategy. I trade futures, options, forex etc, have been doing so for 15 years.

You don't say.

News flash: Bitcoin ISN'T a stock.  But no wonder you keep acting like it is.

lol

bitcoin is worse than a stock, right now its a chinese MOMO machine.....

what store of value or financial instrument has one day value fluctuations of 20%? none, because no sane person would consider this a safe store of value.

[jasonjm]

BTW I was one of the only people to call the last spike a bubble when it was happening, took a lot of heat for it, but was ultimately correct and bought back in for around $70 - giving me more than double the coins I had previous to the post.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=169651.0

so at least I have a track record - on record.

only this time I will be very cautious about buying back in, I have traded many chinese "instruments" (which is basically what bitcoin is now), and I can tell you straight up that they are crazy, the go to even more extremes than western markets - in both the up and the down. I think it goes with the asian culture of feeling more comfortable being in a group, they seem to have less of a sense of individuality, so they are even more comfortable in a herd mentality. But that is just my psyche 101 on them, it could be BS.

[notme]

BTW I was one of the only people to call the last spike a bubble when it was happening, took a lot of heat for it, but was ultimately correct and bought back in for around $70 - giving me more than double the coins I had previous to the post.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=169651.0

so at least I have a track record - on record.

only this time I will be very cautious about buying back in, I have traded many chinese "instruments" (which is basically what bitcoin is now), and I can tell you straight up that they are crazy, the go to even more extremes than western markets - in both the up and the down. I think it goes with the asian culture of feeling more comfortable being in a group, they seem to have less of a sense of individuality, so they are even more comfortable in a herd mentality. But that is just my psyche 101 on them, it could be BS.

Good job selling over $100 before the top.  Certainly a record worth bragging about .

[jasonjm]

jason you make good points, you are here for the sole purpose of short-term making small amounts of USD, and your goal seems to be accomplished while also helping make the climb up less vertical. All is good I actually like more pros getting to know about bitcoins because when shit would really start hitting the fan (i.e. you would not know where to run with the stash of paper) you guys would be the ones driving price from 10k to infinity.

It is also possible that you will gradually see more and more value in storing part of your overall portfolio in BTC longterm. Right now, the faith seems weak in you Government can ban all exchanges in the world tomorrow and it won't change a thing, after the panic dissipates.

oh but you are so wrong, the exchanges die, bitcoin will die. Do you really think people are going to walk around on the street dealing with strangers for cash to buy bitcoins? and what will you do with these bitcoins since the only way to use them would be the black market?


there are lots of other ways to protect against inflation / fiat debasement other than bitcoin (which I am not going to get into).

[jasonjm]

BTW I was one of the only people to call the last spike a bubble when it was happening, took a lot of heat for it, but was ultimately correct and bought back in for around $70 - giving me more than double the coins I had previous to the post.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=169651.0

so at least I have a track record - on record.

only this time I will be very cautious about buying back in, I have traded many chinese "instruments" (which is basically what bitcoin is now), and I can tell you straight up that they are crazy, the go to even more extremes than western markets - in both the up and the down. I think it goes with the asian culture of feeling more comfortable being in a group, they seem to have less of a sense of individuality, so they are even more comfortable in a herd mentality. But that is just my psyche 101 on them, it could be BS.

Good job selling over $100 before the top.  Certainly a record worth bragging about .

Unfortunately I do not have a time machine like everyone else on bitcointalk. Like I said earlier when we see the top, I am sure everyone on this forum will post they sold within $10 of the top.

Meanwhile where is your trade log showing how you doubled the amount of coins you owned through trading? Perhaps you can use your time machine to go back in time and fix that?

[danyy]

I think this will go to 1000 before correction..

the chinneses still sees prices below 500 as extremely cheap.

[kireinaha]

BTW I was one of the only people to call the last spike a bubble when it was happening, took a lot of heat for it, but was ultimately correct and bought back in for around $70 - giving me more than double the coins I had previous to the post.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=169651.0

so at least I have a track record - on record.

only this time I will be very cautious about buying back in, I have traded many chinese "instruments" (which is basically what bitcoin is now), and I can tell you straight up that they are crazy, the go to even more extremes than western markets - in both the up and the down. I think it goes with the asian culture of feeling more comfortable being in a group, they seem to have less of a sense of individuality, so they are even more comfortable in a herd mentality. But that is just my psyche 101 on them, it could be BS.

Good job selling over $100 before the top.  Certainly a record worth bragging about .

Unfortunately I do not have a time machine like everyone else on bitcointalk. Like I said earlier when we see the top, I am sure everyone on this forum will post they sold within $10 of the top.

Meanwhile where is your trade log showing how you doubled the amount of coins you owned through trading? Perhaps you can use your time machine to go back in time and fix that?

Even if you didn't sell at the top of the top, I'm sure you're still coming away from this with more cash than 99% of the people who post here. Many of them are firmly planted in the driver's seat of the bitcoin train, and will be gripping the throttle, white knuckled, as it goes flying off the cliff.

Of course, I'm not saying it's going to fail, but given the current trajectory I'd say it's the more likely scenario.

[adamstgBit]

BTW I was one of the only people to call the last spike a bubble when it was happening, took a lot of heat for it, but was ultimately correct and bought back in for around $70 - giving me more than double the coins I had previous to the post.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=169651.0

so at least I have a track record - on record.

only this time I will be very cautious about buying back in, I have traded many chinese "instruments" (which is basically what bitcoin is now), and I can tell you straight up that they are crazy, the go to even more extremes than western markets - in both the up and the down. I think it goes with the asian culture of feeling more comfortable being in a group, they seem to have less of a sense of individuality, so they are even more comfortable in a herd mentality. But that is just my psyche 101 on them, it could be BS.

Good job selling over $100 before the top.  Certainly a record worth bragging about .

Unfortunately I do not have a time machine like everyone else on bitcointalk. Like I said earlier when we see the top, I am sure everyone on this forum will post they sold within $10 of the top.

Meanwhile where is your trade log showing how you doubled the amount of coins you owned through trading? Perhaps you can use your time machine to go back in time and fix that?

and violate the temporal prime directive?

no f'n way!

[Ardenyham]

I think this will go to 1000 before correction..

the chinneses still sees prices below 500 as extremely cheap.

I doubt, corection will happen much sonner. Its good decision to dump part of coins. At least I hope, I already dumped some

[windjc]

jason you make good points, you are here for the sole purpose of short-term making small amounts of USD, and your goal seems to be accomplished while also helping make the climb up less vertical. All is good I actually like more pros getting to know about bitcoins because when shit would really start hitting the fan (i.e. you would not know where to run with the stash of paper) you guys would be the ones driving price from 10k to infinity.

It is also possible that you will gradually see more and more value in storing part of your overall portfolio in BTC longterm. Right now, the faith seems weak in you Government can ban all exchanges in the world tomorrow and it won't change a thing, after the panic dissipates.

oh but you are so wrong, the exchanges die, bitcoin will die. Do you really think people are going to walk around on the street dealing with strangers for cash to buy bitcoins? and what will you do with these bitcoins since the only way to use them would be the black market?


there are lots of other ways to protect against inflation / fiat debasement other than bitcoin (which I am not going to get into).

Your comments tell me you are only a trader. Not an innovator or someone who understands ascendent technology. You are definitely not a visionary.

You think we are near the top. Good for you. That's the only way you know how to communicate and interact with BTC because you only see this from a traders perspective.  Congrats, btw on doubling the # of coins you have, coins in which you think will be worthless.

Many many people trading BTC have double there coins and doubled their profit. Not hard to do as an early trader.

Btw, I have traded a variety of things for years also. And I think your technical analysis is absolutely incorrect. While China may be leading this rise, China did not start it. It just took the lead. And we will go up for a bit more and then we will correct. But China isnt going to crash anything.

April 2013 does not  equal Nov. 2013. If you did more research on the Bitcoin eco-system you would know this already. But I am not going to try to explain it to you.

I just wonder if you'll be on here to eat your crow when we go over $1000 in 2014? Doubt it.

[MAbtc]

BTW I was one of the only people to call the last spike a bubble when it was happening, took a lot of heat for it, but was ultimately correct and bought back in for around $70 - giving me more than double the coins I had previous to the post.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=169651.0

so at least I have a track record - on record.

only this time I will be very cautious about buying back in, I have traded many chinese "instruments" (which is basically what bitcoin is now), and I can tell you straight up that they are crazy, the go to even more extremes than western markets - in both the up and the down. I think it goes with the asian culture of feeling more comfortable being in a group, they seem to have less of a sense of individuality, so they are even more comfortable in a herd mentality. But that is just my psyche 101 on them, it could be BS.

Good job selling over $100 before the top.  Certainly a record worth bragging about .

He doubled his coins on a big correction. I'd be happy with that. I'd say he did pretty well. Many losers trading this market.

[jasonjm]

well good luck all, I am signing out of this thread for a while

I will manually sell my last 10% of BTC at $1000

I have buy orders layered in from $150 down to $70

[mgio]

I think this will go to 1000 before correction..

the chinneses still sees prices below 500 as extremely cheap.

People said it would go to 300 during the last bubble.

It never did. I never sold and I got burned.

This time it makes sense to sell at least a little as it goes up. When the inevitable correction comes you can buy back in. If not, you still can continue to make money on the coins you have left.

I feel that the chances of us seeing <$300 again are greater than the chances of us seeing $1000. We will see $1000 someday, the question is whether there will be a crash before then.

I bought most of my coins at around $10, so I am not sad selling at $400.

[BitchicksHusband]

I bought most of my coins at around $10, so I am not sad selling at $400.

Nice.  Good job.  But if you bought them at $10, how did you get burned?

[Crazy]

I bought most of my coins at around $10, so I am not sad selling at $400.

Nice.  Good job.  But if you bought them at $10, how did you get burned?

Probably where "most" comes into play.

[Paladin69]

well good luck all, I am signing out of this thread for a while

I will manually sell my last 10% of BTC at $1000

I have buy orders layered in from $150 down to $70

What percent of your sale are you using to get back in?  Do you start with a smaller percent at layer $150 or a higher one?  Four layers?  And what reasoning did you layer between those values?

Thanks.