Bitcoin Forum
February 24, 2017, 01:47:47 AM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.13.2  [Torrent]. (New!)
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: « 1 [2]  All
  Print  
Author Topic: Bitcoin scraped pool luck data/graphics  (Read 8240 times)
topheroly
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 21



View Profile
August 08, 2011, 05:26:27 AM
 #21

Added bitcoins.lc and changed the layout so is now more visually appealing.
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1487900867
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1487900867

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1487900867
Reply with quote  #2

1487900867
Report to moderator
1487900867
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1487900867

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1487900867
Reply with quote  #2

1487900867
Report to moderator
topheroly
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 21



View Profile
August 11, 2011, 02:21:38 AM
 #22

Added pool growth hash rate graphs to information provided.  Might include some sort of calculator next or trade data.
topheroly
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 21



View Profile
August 11, 2011, 10:31:27 PM
 #23

Added Trade data bubble plots/loess lines to graphs available.
Obsi
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 30


View Profile
August 11, 2011, 10:42:09 PM
 #24

This is very cool, thanks for putting the time into this.
sje397
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 23


View Profile
August 12, 2011, 01:08:20 PM
 #25

It might provide circumstantial evidence in case of DDOS - i.e. which pool the attacker is using (since that one will likely not be affected).
dacoinminster
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1106


Rational Exuberance


View Profile WWW
August 12, 2011, 01:46:24 PM
 #26

Nice work. I salute you sir!

I note that slush's pool has been lucky lately, which I was just noticing yesterday in my own spreadsheets. It's nice to have that independently confirmed. I also note that slush's pool always has a nice bell-curve look to it. It's not clear to me why everyone else has their peak on the unlucky side with a bump way up on the lucky side. I wonder if it has to do with slush's algorithm to make pool hopping unprofitable on his server . . .

Anyone who finds these graphs useful should also check out:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
http://bitcoinx.com/charts/

fitty
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 294


www.pumpmycoin.com


View Profile
August 12, 2011, 05:43:16 PM
 #27

Cool project.

Beyond pretty graphs, what have you learned? Are some pools luckier? Do some pools out perform the average?

Before everyone starts lecturing me about statistics and probabilities, all pools are not created equal. Bitcoins.lc runs very very low invalids. I've seen other polls run as high as 3%. They're running different backends. The code that manages the workers I'm sure varies and has an effect on how effective the pool is.

Maybe there's not enough data to draw any conclusions, blocks don't happen very often. But if anyone has any theories on this data do share. Tongue

PUMPDUMP
███
███  ███
███  ███  ███
███  ███  ███
███  ███  ███
███  ███  ███
███  ███  ███
███  ███  ███
███  ███  ███
███  ███  ███
███  ███  ███
███  ███
███
          ▄▄▄███████████▄▄▄
       ▄▄█████████████████████▄▄
     ▄███████████████████████████▄
   ▄███████████████████████████████▄
  ▄█████████████████████████████████▄
 ▄███████████████████████████████████▄
▄█████████████████████████████████████▄
███████████████████████████████████████
███████████████████████████████████████
███████████████████████████████████████
▀█████████████████████████████████████▀
 ▀███████████████████████████████████▀
  ▀█████████████████████████████████▀
   ▀███████████████████████████████▀
     ▀███████████████████████████▀
       ▀▀█████████████████████▀▀
           ▀▀▀███████████▀▀▀
███
███  ███
███  ███  ███
███  ███  ███
███  ███  ███
███  ███  ███
███  ███  ███
███  ███  ███
███  ███  ███
███  ███  ███
███  ███  ███
███  ███
███
{}{}
dacoinminster
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1106


Rational Exuberance


View Profile WWW
August 12, 2011, 05:51:56 PM
 #28

My personal theory is that slush has the best pool for people who aren't pool-hopping. My guess is that the uneven luck distribution for other pools is a result of pool-hoppers making more on short blocks at the expense of non-pool hoppers.

slush has an algorithm that weights recent work higher than older work, which means that pool hopping doesn't get you anything. Other pools don't do this, to my knowledge.

topheroly
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 21



View Profile
August 13, 2011, 10:34:04 PM
 #29

I included histograms for people to look at to actually see what effect a larger pool has on the variance of luck.  As we can see, deebit has the sharpest peak around 0 implying they are running a very steady ship for payouts.  When looking at the smaller pools however, you can see that there is a MUCH larger variance for their ability to find a block.  Interesting to see anyway.

The stats page also includes the mean/sd/quantiles for those that want to look at the descriptive statistics.
enquirer
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 279


View Profile
August 14, 2011, 03:04:00 AM
 #30

Very nice graphs! And they clearly show that ALL pools on average are unlucky!
Either pool owners or block hiders screw the small miner.
hugolp
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 742



View Profile
August 14, 2011, 04:43:30 AM
 #31

Very nice graphs! And they clearly show that ALL pools on average are unlucky!

It doesnt show that.
LightRider
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1488


I advocate the Zeitgeist Movement & Venus Project.


View Profile WWW
August 14, 2011, 07:58:56 AM
 #32

Good site, great graphs and useful information. Thanks!

Bitcoin combines money, the wrongest thing in the world, with software, the easiest thing in the world to get wrong.
Visit www.thevenusproject.com and www.theZeitgeistMovement.com.
topheroly
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 21



View Profile
August 18, 2011, 02:43:23 AM
 #33

Added an about page and a contact form.  Probably going to add something for people who are interested in the code as well.  I'm still debating that.
sharky112065
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 383



View Profile
August 21, 2011, 11:52:13 PM
 #34

Since it is only updated daily at 5 pm now, what is the point of having 6 and 12 hour results on the charts?

Donations welcome: 12KaKtrK52iQjPdtsJq7fJ7smC32tXWbWr
topheroly
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 21



View Profile
August 21, 2011, 11:53:44 PM
 #35

It's to give an idea of the magnitude of the variance that pools have.
topheroly
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 21



View Profile
August 31, 2011, 06:30:35 PM
 #36

Added another geom_line to the plots, it helps demonstrate how much everything changes.  The "Actual Luck" line is in red and is drawn through the 24hr points.  I also changed the smoother formula so it only uses 12/24 scrapes because of how much the smaller pools vary.
topheroly
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 21



View Profile
September 09, 2011, 06:27:57 AM
 #37

Added a spiffy break-even calculator to find out what cost it starts becoming unprofitable.
Meatpile
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 277


View Profile
September 09, 2011, 05:40:05 PM
 #38

That is good quality work sir.
ahitman
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 126


View Profile WWW
October 22, 2011, 01:42:37 PM
 #39

What happened to the charts? Any plans on putting them back up? Are you still collecting the data the charts use?
Geremia
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 446


View Profile WWW
April 17, 2015, 02:21:25 AM
 #40

For the inclined:
 I wrote this completely in R http://www.r-project.org/ and rastered the graphics using the package ggplot2 http://had.co.nz/ggplot2/.  The formula used to calculate luck is

z <- (x/y)
if z < 1
    luck <- (1 - z)*(-1)
if z > 1
    luck <- (z - 1)


x == Actual Blocks found within Time Frame
y == Estimated Blocks found within Time Frame

To calculate estimated blocks, use the formula (difficulty * 2^32)/hashrate.  These numbers are also grabbed from each site when the script is run.
You like my histograms of hashes and nonces posted on this BitcoinTalk thread.

BTC tip jar | my BTC wiki, BTC StackExchange, Twister posts, & Keybase pages | Tox ID: 65C3E8810738AD9D175234808FCB317A1103632903436203D45411AE97C03F547D390A76B3CF
Join Coinbase. | The best, free book on Bitcoin: Mastering Bitcoin
Nos cum prole pia benedicat Virgo Maria.
Pages: « 1 [2]  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!