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Author Topic: A lot of bad news recently for bitcoin, IMO it is going to start to hurt.  (Read 4214 times)
pennytrader
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August 02, 2011, 03:02:28 AM
 #21

Totally agree on the penny stock analogy. It'll fall very very hard once the promotion campaign is over. Remember it was trading at less than 1 penny last year, without having any real value.

Cashing out all the remaining coins at $13 now (well, if it gets re-pumped, I won't regret either as I'm continously mining as well).

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August 02, 2011, 03:21:00 AM
 #22

Good points about the penny stock. What has really changed in a year that makes bitcoin worth $30 or even $13? Really nothing has changed except it was hyped up with a few major news articles.

I wish I would be able to short bitcoin.

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August 02, 2011, 03:38:37 AM
 #23

I also have become involved with Bitcoin under the impression that it was highly speculative and that there is every possibility of losing every cent I 'invested'.

I actually am quite impressed at how well Bitcoin has held on so far under the never ending barrage of misfortune.  If anything, I have more confidence in it now than I did a month ago (and have upped my bet noticeably.)

I hope against hope that Bitcoin fulfills the desires of the 'good' people in the community, but even if it does not, I see a possible trajectory as follows:

Bitcoin becomes a tool used by non-state actors and the intelligence communities to hold and transfer value.  Bones are tossed out to keep people mining and transacting, but a lionshare of the utilization is cloaked.  Shadows and traces of it's primary function might be noticed by sharp-eyed observers, but not much more.

Come to think of it, the use as I've described above and the more 'wholesome' use as a currency free of debt-based money problems may not necessarily be mutually exclusive.  But I ramble...

pennytrader
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August 02, 2011, 04:39:12 AM
 #24

Good points about the penny stock. What has really changed in a year that makes bitcoin worth $30 or even $13? Really nothing has changed except it was hyped up with a few major news articles.

I wish I would be able to short bitcoin.

Good thing you can't short it, because I'm happy to continue to sell btcs as I know short-squeeze is not very likely Smiley

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August 02, 2011, 04:11:45 PM
 #25

Bitcoin Windows being so easily hacked is one of the big reasons I say that it will never take off. These hacks will continue and if the mainstream ever uses bitcoin, most of them will lose their coins.

Fixed.

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August 02, 2011, 04:15:53 PM
 #26

Totally agree on the penny stock analogy. It'll fall very very hard once the promotion campaign is over.

What promotion campaign, you mean the spike to $30? That's long over.




orange: gold
red: USD
blue: bitcoin

The USD is getting a ton of press time, but is dropping. Gold has the most hits, though the line is fairly flat, yet gold prices are at record high.

Bitcoin has a microscopic amount of google hits compared to USD and gold. "What promotion campaign?" is a valid question.

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August 02, 2011, 05:16:58 PM
 #27

Quote
"What promotion campaign?" is a valid question

we do need to push it more.. the google trends is pathetic

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August 02, 2011, 06:29:19 PM
 #28

People can blame windows or the exchanges etc. until they are blue in the face... simple fact of the matter is that until widespread adoption "coerces" people to use BTC or the security vulnerabilities are addressed it will be a big hurdle for BTC to get over.  I don't have the solution by any means but it is something that seriously needs to be discussed.

I'm open to suggestions on how to get Microsoft to design a reasonably secure operating system. Better people than I have been trying for years without success.

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August 02, 2011, 07:12:23 PM
 #29

I'm open to suggestions on how to get Microsoft to design a reasonably secure operating system. Better people than I have been trying for years without success.

I guess what I am trying to get at and trying not to be argumentative about is that the Bitcoin community can't just say, "ah it's windows fault, tell them to fix their security issues, after all bitcoin has never been hacked" a better question to seek answers to is "What can the bitcoin community do to protect potential consumers against the in-vulnerabilities of windows?"  so for the best answer is a hand jammed procedure about taking wallets offline, encrypting them and using live cd's when accessing the wallet... I would venture to say that is impractical for a great majority of the people that are needed to adopt this technology in the long run.  Again, I don't know the answer but I suspect there are a lot of smart people out there with ideas that should seriously be considered weighing the technical feasibility and the ease of use for an end user, security should be higher priority up until you get to a point such as "I forgot my password so I just lost my life savings"

Additionally people will need mobile wallets they can use in every day retail as a user can't tell a store clerk "I'll send you the BTC when I get home, Thanks!" lol .... and that is a whole new ballpark relating to security which will be needed as well for general acceptance.

For the time being, we should be hitting up sites like www.Bitmunchies.com is mass numbers.  Security isn't as much of an issue if you want to sell your BTC right away -- then, responsibility to be safe and secure falls largely upon the merchant (which he should be doing anyway if it's a business).  Besides...if I can run my errands in a few seconds online without paying for gas and spending the extra time, that's a damn good reason for me to buy some BTC at an exchange and immediately use them to purchase tangible goods.  This increases demand, gets the currency circulating, and bounces the value of BTC upward.  I think if people saw this happening and thought, "Hey, these guys are paying the same they would if they went to a store, but pay for no gas, spend less time, are not required to input sensitive credit card information, and have their order shipped right to their door!" then that will spark interest.  And, you don't really have to worry about losing you BTCs....they'll be spent soon anyway.

pennytrader
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August 02, 2011, 07:36:38 PM
 #30

People blaming Microsoft are just plain ignorant. The security attack can happen on other operating system too. Because Windows has more market share so hackers spend more effort on exploiting holes in it. Plus, I don't think exchanges are using Microsoft SQL servers.

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tymothy
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August 03, 2011, 12:47:47 AM
 #31

Shouldn't the loss of all these bitcoins suggest that the supply of coins has decreased and the remaining are therefore more valuable?
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August 03, 2011, 01:08:17 AM
 #32

Shouldn't the loss of all these bitcoins suggest that the supply of coins has decreased and the remaining are therefore more valuable?

Correct BUT if noone wants to use a system that is prone to the loss then your bitcoins won't be worth much at all.  I think the motivation here is to encourage a smart balance of security and user friendliness that keeps 90% or more of the common plane jane users safe.

User Friendliness is paramount! Even windows with its stupid security problems is still the dominant operating system WHY?! because it is user friendly!

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August 03, 2011, 02:34:54 AM
 #33

User Friendliness is paramount! Even windows with its stupid security problems is still the dominant operating system WHY?! because it is user friendly!

+1,000,000!

Smartest comment in this forum in weeks!

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August 03, 2011, 02:52:17 AM
 #34

User Friendliness is paramount! Even windows with its stupid security problems is still the dominant operating system WHY?! because it is user friendly!

+1,000,000!

Smartest comment in this forum in weeks!
I will be announcing a business plan soon with my upcoming wallet site BitWal.com. I think you will like what you see so stay tuned smalley Smiley.

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vulgata
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August 03, 2011, 12:44:51 PM
 #35

Shouldn't the loss of all these bitcoins suggest that the supply of coins has decreased and the remaining are therefore more valuable?

Correct BUT if noone wants to use a system that is prone to the loss then your bitcoins won't be worth much at all.  I think the motivation here is to encourage a smart balance of security and user friendliness that keeps 90% or more of the common plane jane users safe.

No, not exactly.  If the coins were lost through theft (as most of the losses have been) then the coins aren't gone from the money supply since the thieves have to USE the coins in some way (buying things, selling for cash) in order for them to make a profit, i.e., the supply is the same but the coins have simply shifted ownership.  I doubt most of them are ideologically motivated to simply take bitcoin down or to raise the price.

User Friendliness is paramount! Even windows with its stupid security problems is still the dominant operating system WHY?! because it is user friendly!

+1,000,000!

Smartest comment in this forum in weeks!

Maybe, but I'm pretty sure everyone can agree that OS X and Ubuntu are far more user-friendly than Windows.  What Windows has going for it is critical mass and good business marketing.  Windows adoption took off because of its widespread adoption by business--you will likely adopt for home use whatever your work requires so you can do your job properly, and other businesses will adopt Windows so they can be interoperable with their clients/other businesses and most importantly use essential trade-specific programs.  Microsoft did a really good job marketing to businesses with volume discounts and support plans.  Computer manufacturers also got locked into Microsoft-only deals early on, and consumers had no other choice.  Apple dropped the ball by trying to have their cake and eat it too (controlling both hardware and software).  Microsoft also tied Windows strongly to IE and Office in addition to the other aforementioned business programs; while IE is slowly being eroded away by FF/Chrome (for most of us it's not even a contender anymore), anyone who doesn't use docx now is at a severe disadvantage (although many governments/organizations are switching to ODF, but Microsoft also bullied its way somehow into ISO certification).

tl;dr It's not about ease of use at an individual level but market forces that force large-scale business decisions.

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August 03, 2011, 01:15:00 PM
 #36

Maybe, but I'm pretty sure everyone can agree that OS X and Ubuntu are far more user-friendly than Windows.
dont think so... OS X is for computer users who have absolutely no clue of informatics and nearly no logical thinking... everything's so simple, tha the dummest person can handle with it... (but you cant change very much of the system)
-> most userfrendly but shit

Windows is for users with more logical thinking and a bit knowlege of informatics (yo dont have to see the solution, you'll find it if you think logically). the more you know, the more you can change the system. it's usable for dumb and intelligent people, because you can do more qith windows if you want, but you dont have to.
-> less userfrendly, but as user you've got more possibilities

Ubuntu is quite simple, at the beginning, but most dumb people dont see what all you can do with the system, so they will be bored short time after installing... an informatician can change nearly everything. if you want to use Ubuntu with all his possibilities, you have to know much about informatics ant think absolutely logical...
-> in the beginning userfrendly, but after short time of using it is not.

means the bitcoin client and the exchantges have to look much more professional (placebo effect for mainstream), simple and userfrendly to use for first time users, but with much more possibilities for advanced users!

look at an applestore, the product they sell are IMO one of the worst, but they present it white, clean, simple, trustable, uzseful for the dumbest person

right? ;-)

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vulgata
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August 03, 2011, 01:52:06 PM
 #37

Windows is for users with more logical thinking and a bit knowlege of informatics (yo dont have to see the solution, you'll find it if you think logically). the more you know, the more you can change the system. it's usable for dumb and intelligent people, because you can do more qith windows if you want, but you dont have to.
-> less userfrendly, but as user you've got more possibilities

I don't think it's user-friendly at all; just look at the stupid shit people do to bork their systems.  The only reason why it seems "usable for dumb people" is because they grew up using it and forget about the steep learning curve it had in the beginning; also there is a HUGE industry set up just to help people use their computers and to save their asses after they inevitably fuck it up (geek squad, antivirus, etc.).  No other system do you have to reformat and reinstall as much as Windows, even if you use it properly.

Ubuntu is quite simple, at the beginning, but most dumb people dont see what all you can do with the system, so they will be bored short time after installing... an informatician can change nearly everything. if you want to use Ubuntu with all his possibilities, you have to know much about informatics ant think absolutely logical...
-> in the beginning userfrendly, but after short time of using it is not.

What?  A dumb person doesn't want to do any more with the system other than their basic needs.  They treat a computer like a microwave or any other appliance--it does a one or a few functions (email, facebook, youtube, google), they learn how to use those, and don't bother with anything else.  Why would they get "bored" with it?  And for that matter, why would they not get "bored" with OS X and Windows if they can't figure out how to use those either?

E.g., my parents used to use Windows because that's what it came with and that's what they used at work.  They would inevitably have problems and so I would troubleshoot over the phone, clean/reformat once every 6mos-1y when I would visit (more when I lived with them), and if I was too busy they would just take it to the store.  A few years ago I installed Ubuntu for my mom and after the few initial calls to figure out how to do certain things (flash, streaming video, downloads, etc.) she hasn't had any issues since.  Now when I come to visit all I have to do is upgrade, which is free, painless, and optional anyway (so I only do it if I have time).

Maybe I'm just one of those "dumb" people but I have no idea what you're saying about Ubuntu here.

means the bitcoin client and the exchantges have to look much more professional (placebo effect for mainstream), simple and userfrendly to use for first time users, but with much more possibilities for advanced users!

look at an applestore, the product they sell are IMO one of the worst, but they present it white, clean, simple, trustable, uzseful for the dumbest person

right? ;-)

I agree totally.  We need one of those gaudy, saccharine "Web 2.0" beasts with tons of AJAX, rounded corners, faux-3D effects, and cutesy animations for this to gain any mainstream appeal.

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August 03, 2011, 02:57:03 PM
 #38

I must be an idiot, because everytime i try linux I end up going back to windows with my tail between my legs.

I recently tried ubuntu 11.04 but trying to get my GPU drivers loaded Borked my system.  Then I tried linuxcoin, but couldnt figure out how to start mining...  back to windows 7...

Its a shame, because ive always loved the GUI user interface of linux.  If all i did was surf the web then yeah id use ubuntu... but getting world of warcraft to work in linux is WAAAAAAAAAAAAY to much work. 

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August 03, 2011, 03:04:18 PM
 #39

I must be an idiot, because everytime i try linux I end up going back to windows with my tail between my legs.

I recently tried ubuntu 11.04 but trying to get my GPU drivers loaded Borked my system.  Then I tried linuxcoin, but couldnt figure out how to start mining...  back to windows 7...

Its a shame, because ive always loved the GUI user interface of linux.  If all i did was surf the web then yeah id use ubuntu... but getting world of warcraft to work in linux is WAAAAAAAAAAAAY to much work. 
you're not an idiot, you're only not an informatican

@vulgata

See, thats what i ment what's Ubuntu about...

I like and use Ubuntu, but that's the reason, why i normally use Windows, and run Ubuntu on a stick..

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August 03, 2011, 03:11:19 PM
 #40

Maybe, but I'm pretty sure everyone can agree that OS X and Ubuntu are far more user-friendly than Windows.
dont think so... OS X is for computer users who have absolutely no clue of informatics and nearly no logical thinking... everything's so simple, tha the dummest person can handle with it... (but you cant change very much of the system)
-> most userfrendly but shit


Funny that Smiley Do you think that is the reason most serious developers use OS X? Well they do, because A. it's a solid OS just like linux and B. it increases productivity by making your life simple. So you know, you can get shit done instead of struggling with mediocre Windows problems Smiley

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