Bears Bunker - Official thread

[samsam]

And you think MtGox/Bitstamp will follow China all the way down to the bottom?

I think if you can get coins around $500 you will be in a good position regardless of your timescales. I see it bouncing up and down between $600-700 for a few weeks so good trading opportunities and then into the medium term it will continue to trend up. People are buying Lamborghini's with Bitcoin, 2014 is going to be wild.

I don't think Gox/Bitstamp will fall that low (although BTC-e could get close), but that doesn't matter. Rich Chinese investors with foreign bank accounts will buy up all the dirt cheap BTC on BTC China and then dump those coins on Bitstamp/BTC-e (easy to withdrawl money) for a huge, instant profit. That is why what happens in China matters so much.

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[pera]

The price at MtGox is ridiculous, I believe the reason for the lack of arbitrage is fear of fast drops, but still I find it strange...

anyways, downtrend! we are going back to a reasonable $300

[Nagle]

The price at MtGox is ridiculous, I believe the reason for the lack of arbitrage is fear of fast drops, but still I find it strange...

The reason for the lack of arbitrage on Mt. Gox is that nobody can get US dollars out. The Mt. Gox USD price is fictitious, because you can't really sell at that price and get paid.

Main discussion: "Mt. Gox Withdrawal Delays."

[Nagle]

OK, what we know about fundamentals at this point:

• The U.S. Government is basically OK with Bitcoin if you follow the rules for trading any other commodity.
• China is clamping down on Bitcoin, because they have exchange controls and Bitcoin was a way to evade them.
• Drug dealing in Bitcoins has mostly been shut down. The people behind Silk Road and Silk Road 2 have been arrested.
• Retail transactions in Bitcoin are up, but it's not used widely for retail.
• Volatility is too high to price anything in Bitcoins unless it's something with a huge markup.
• So far, nobody operating a Bitcoin exchange has been able to provide safety and reliability comparable to an on-line stock broker. Not even close.
• The overall transaction cost of doing business in Bitcoins, after considering volatility, the cost of getting in and out of Bitcoins, and the risks associated with flaky exchanges, is higher than credit card processing costs.
• Nobody is using Bitcoin for micropayments for music tracks, game items, or other < $1 items.

Knowing that, what anchors the price of Bitcoin?

[SuperHakka]

Nice job Nagle, so btc is a beta experimental product. any other avenue of life, it would not deserve more than $20 per unit I think. only excess, hubris and blind greed be paying $600 per unit.

[Ibian]

OK, what we know about fundamentals at this point:

• The U.S. Government is basically OK with Bitcoin if you follow the rules for trading any other commodity.
• China is clamping down on Bitcoin, because they have exchange controls and Bitcoin was a way to evade them.
• Drug dealing in Bitcoins has mostly been shut down. The people behind Silk Road and Silk Road 2 have been arrested.
• Retail transactions in Bitcoin are up, but it's not used widely for retail.
• Volatility is too high to price anything in Bitcoins unless it's something with a huge markup.
• So far, nobody operating a Bitcoin exchange has been able to provide safety and reliability comparable to an on-line stock broker. Not even close.
• The overall transaction cost of doing business in Bitcoins, after considering volatility, the cost of getting in and out of Bitcoins, and the risks associated with flaky exchanges, is higher than credit card processing costs.
• Nobody is using Bitcoin for micropayments for music tracks, game items, or other < $1 items.

Knowing that, what anchors the price of Bitcoin?

Future potential.

I made my first bitcoin purchase a few days ago. Bought a VPN service so I can connect to hotspots without risking getting my digital gold stolen. It was much faster and much easier than traditional plastic transactions. Didn't have to fill in dozens of fields, the transaction itself took less than a second and I had my merchandise within two minutes of clicking the buy button start to finish. Most of said minutes being spent downloading.

Simply put, bitcoin is better at what it does than traditional means. It's arguably a better store of value than gold depending on favored metrics, it's easier and faster to buy stuff with it when properly implemented and perhaps most important of all for some of us, you don't risk waking up one day and find the state has confiscated half of it.

[pera]

fuck

https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed

be extremely cautious


Chinese Bitcoin Exchange OKCoin Accused of Faking Trading Data

 

[Xiaoxiao]

fuck

https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed

be extremely cautious


Chinese Bitcoin Exchange OKCoin Accused of Faking Trading Data

 

The blockchain.info stat, is that bearish or bullish?

[samsam]

fuck

https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed

be extremely cautious


Chinese Bitcoin Exchange OKCoin Accused of Faking Trading Data

 

The blockchain.info stat, is that bearish or bullish?

Could be neutral or bearish. The stat just means a lot bitcoin were moved today (the most ever) that had been in storage for a long time. Bearish sign if they were moved in order to sell.

[accord01]

OK, what we know about fundamentals at this point:

• The U.S. Government is basically OK with Bitcoin if you follow the rules for trading any other commodity.
• China is clamping down on Bitcoin, because they have exchange controls and Bitcoin was a way to evade them.
• Drug dealing in Bitcoins has mostly been shut down. The people behind Silk Road and Silk Road 2 have been arrested.
• Retail transactions in Bitcoin are up, but it's not used widely for retail.
• Volatility is too high to price anything in Bitcoins unless it's something with a huge markup.
• So far, nobody operating a Bitcoin exchange has been able to provide safety and reliability comparable to an on-line stock broker. Not even close.
• The overall transaction cost of doing business in Bitcoins, after considering volatility, the cost of getting in and out of Bitcoins, and the risks associated with flaky exchanges, is higher than credit card processing costs.
• Nobody is using Bitcoin for micropayments for music tracks, game items, or other < $1 items.

Knowing that, what anchors the price of Bitcoin?

Another problem is the incompetent people in charge of bitcoin.org, bitcoin qt, and the bitcoin foundation.  while people are losing btcoins, getting hacked and unable to find a good wallet, their busy cashing in and buying yachts.

[nobbynobbynoob]

The obvious fundamental to be considered is market psychology and reality. If the price of bitcoin or any commodity or stock rises fivefold or more within a month, then one cannot realistically laugh off bearish thoughts. During the recent rise, I have made diversity and contingency plans and have little fear of a bear scenario: that just means cheaper 'coins. I did do some speculative selling when we tottered around $0,90-$1,00 per mBTC, and bought back in lower, but then I only gamble, ahem, trade with a fraction of my bitcoin anyway.

More usefully, I like to use my hot wallet to spend bitcoin to buy real stuff, even if the bitcoin is converted to fiat via Bitpay or the like. I figure that actively using bitcoin cannot be harming the bitcoin economy.

[jasonjm]

fuck

https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed

be extremely cautious


Chinese Bitcoin Exchange OKCoin Accused of Faking Trading Data

 

this is one of the few rare helpful posts on the speculation forum. thanks for the info.

[Tzupy]

fuck

https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed

be extremely cautious


Chinese Bitcoin Exchange OKCoin Accused of Faking Trading Data

 

Pera, I understand that many coins are being transferred, but is it to the exchanges, and how many?
Would you mind elaborating on this issue? Thanks in advance.

[Tzupy]

After comparing the current market movements with the ones of June 2011, I believe it's possible that the drop from 1066$ to 455$ (11th to 19th December) wasn't the whole wave C,
but only the first third of it. In 2011 the similar movements were from 13th to 18th of June, with a drop from 24$ to 13$. Now, why did the current market rebound so strongly?
A possible explanation is that Google trends shows a short spike in interest on the 18th December, so some new fiat probably entered the exchanges.
The confirmation of the scenario that the market is still in wave C would be another large drop, if it won't happen then the new fiat may have reversed the trend, that would be interesting.

[pera]

BDD peaks indicates old ("unmoved") coins being transfered, this one was massive. I don't think we are going to see much of those coins reaching exchanges though, but you never know...

[silverston]

anybody home 

[calchuchesta]

anybody home 

Why would you bump this? 

[fewcoins]

because we are back in a bear market!

[silverston]

just trolling

[alexeft]

Trollll!!!