Why bitcoin will hit 100000$/BTC in 2014. My conspiracy theory

[bitcon]

i wonder how much the confiscated Ross Ulbricht coins will be worth a few years down the road.  I can see the headlines already: "jailed man single handedly paid off USA's debt to china"

[zimmah]

the U.S. already has hundreds of thousands of bitcoins as a reserve currency (seized from DPR by the FBI)

i think we'll eventually see other nations hop on the bandwagon as well, but 100,000 in a year? that's pretty unlikely.

[Batshit]

Nice thread, but I think the OP and others are looking at the situation from the wrong end of the microscope.

My conspiracy theory is that perhaps the Fed is behind crypto-currencies.  Think about it.  They've expanded the balance sheet by well over $14 Trillion since the housing collapse and have run out of tools to use.  They have been relying on *poof* money creation to keep the system afloat.  That is unsustainable and there is no "out" to rein in all that liquidity.

Unless one simply created another currency and converted a huge chunk of to that new currency.  Well, lookie thar!  A new currency with a mysterious origin just *poofs* onto the scene right after a new administration takes over and sees that things are a complete and utter non-fixable mess.  So, they maintain the status quo until the new currency gets some good footing, but without outright endorsing it lest it draw attention.  "A love fest" was how the congressional hearings were described, wasn't it?  Not to mention the strategic value a totally new currency might have in curtailing the growing influence of China - our biggest banker.

I could go on for pages, but I'll stop well short.  Just think about it:  The Fed and Treasury actually behind BTC.  Oh, the possibilities boggle the mind!

Also worth considering:  BTC can be denominated down to 8 decimal places.  Isn't a Satoshi = 100 millionth?  So if one were to take our national debt and do the math, then it does seem plausible that a BTC should be at least $100,000 USD.  That would be a more supportable arguement for such an obscene(?) valuation.

Yes, the mind gets boggled with the possibilities...

[JimboToronto]

Stop posting nonsense, your topic should be removed, not even realistic. Should be under category of "fantasy", not "speculation".

I'm thinking you probably chose the wrong username...

Obvious troll is obvious.

[Carlton Banks]

Nice thread, but I think the OP and others are looking at the situation from the wrong end of the microscope.

My conspiracy theory is that perhaps the Fed is behind crypto-currencies.  Think about it.  They've expanded the balance sheet by well over $14 Trillion since the housing collapse and have run out of tools to use.  They have been relying on *poof* money creation to keep the system afloat.  That is unsustainable and there is no "out" to rein in all that liquidity.

Unless one simply created another currency and converted a huge chunk of to that new currency.  Well, lookie thar!  A new currency with a mysterious origin just *poofs* onto the scene right after a new administration takes over and sees that things are a complete and utter non-fixable mess.  So, they maintain the status quo until the new currency gets some good footing, but without outright endorsing it lest it draw attention.  "A love fest" was how the congressional hearings were described, wasn't it?  Not to mention the strategic value a totally new currency might have in curtailing the growing influence of China - our biggest banker.

Except... this isn't just any currency with a phantom creator. It completely changes the idea of what currency can be, and manifest in that change is the destruction of the Federal Reserve and each and every one of it's employee's roles. It's not plausible that they would be so motivated to pay off the US public debt that they would happily destroy themselves and all the power and spoils that they enjoy.

[Ibian]

Nice thread, but I think the OP and others are looking at the situation from the wrong end of the microscope.

My conspiracy theory is that perhaps the Fed is behind crypto-currencies.  Think about it.  They've expanded the balance sheet by well over $14 Trillion since the housing collapse and have run out of tools to use.  They have been relying on *poof* money creation to keep the system afloat.  That is unsustainable and there is no "out" to rein in all that liquidity.

Unless one simply created another currency and converted a huge chunk of to that new currency.  Well, lookie thar!  A new currency with a mysterious origin just *poofs* onto the scene right after a new administration takes over and sees that things are a complete and utter non-fixable mess.  So, they maintain the status quo until the new currency gets some good footing, but without outright endorsing it lest it draw attention.  "A love fest" was how the congressional hearings were described, wasn't it?  Not to mention the strategic value a totally new currency might have in curtailing the growing influence of China - our biggest banker.

Except... this isn't just any currency with a phantom creator. It completely changes the idea of what currency can be, and manifest in that change is the destruction of the Federal Reserve and each and every one of it's employee's roles. It's not plausible that they would be so motivated to pay off the US public debt that they would happily destroy themselves and all the power and spoils that they enjoy.

Fiat is unsustainable and it's becoming obvious even to the average politician. Why wouldn't they transition from something that is doomed to end in poverty and war as it always has, to something if not better then at least different enough to carry them along for another few decades?

I don't personally have any theories about who invented it, the only thing I feel confident about is that it was not any one single person who did it all. It's too complex and the timing and functionality is too perfect. Which means to me that it could be some sort of banking or government project (any of them, not necessarily the US gov). Then again it could just as easily be a group of nerds with a vision, possibly even japanese ones.

[jamesc760]

Speculation masquerading as fantasy, and fantasy masquerading as speculation! Lovely.

Chinese tend to take a long-term view whileas Westerners tend to take a short-term view. Chinese obviously know the advantages and disadvatages of bitcoin/cryptocurrency. They have a plan that stretches 10, 20, 30 years. Americans and Europeans will be at the losing end of stick in a few decades. I put my money on China winning. The trend does not lie.

No, I am not Chinese.

[skivrmt]

There's a chance it'll hit $10k per BTC, albiet fairly small.

I doubt 100k, though.

I think the "easy" money is gone for Bitcoin.  I like the settling we're having in the 650-850 range.  Building up a good support, and of course resistance.  If bitcoin had a vix it would be off the wall, so a little price stability isn't bad at all.  If we see $2,000 next year I'd be happy.  Slow and steady wins the race...

[T.Stuart]

I think the "easy" money is gone for Bitcoin.  I like the settling we're having in the 650-850 range.  Building up a good support, and of course resistance.  If bitcoin had a vix it would be off the wall, so a little price stability isn't bad at all.  If we see $2,000 next year I'd be happy.  Slow and steady wins the race...

I think an average of between $10 and $20 up per day until the end of 2014. But you can be sure that won't be quick enough for some people. 

[Ibian]

There's a chance it'll hit $10k per BTC, albiet fairly small.

I doubt 100k, though.

I think the "easy" money is gone for Bitcoin.  I like the settling we're having in the 650-850 range.  Building up a good support, and of course resistance.  If bitcoin had a vix it would be off the wall, so a little price stability isn't bad at all.  If we see $2,000 next year I'd be happy.  Slow and steady wins the race...

2k is nothing at all. I have good money riding on 10k next year, but maybe you would like to enrich me a little further? http://bitbet.us/bet/635/1btc-10-000-usd/

[traderCJ]

Who here thinks this is sustainable?

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BOGMBASE?cid=124

This will be an engineered collapse.  Yes, engineered.

The question is - how will Bitcoin weather the storm?

[Peter R]

My conspiracy theory is that perhaps the Fed is behind crypto-currencies.  Think about it.  They've expanded the balance sheet by well over $14 Trillion since the housing collapse and have run out of tools to use.  They have been relying on *poof* money creation to keep the system afloat.  That is unsustainable and there is no "out" to rein in all that liquidity....A new currency with a mysterious origin just *poofs* onto the scene right after a new administration takes over and sees that things are a complete and utter non-fixable mess. 

I see your point that bitcoin could be a potential solution to the US government debt and entitlement funding problem, but the facts don't support a large organization like the "Fed" having created it.  If this were the case, it would surely have leaked to enough "friends of friends" that network difficultly would have shot up much faster (after Satoshi published the genesis block on the 3rd of January 2009), and the long bear market after the 2011 growth spurt would not have dipped to $2.

So, they maintain the status quo until the new currency gets some good footing, but without outright endorsing it lest it draw attention.  "A love fest" was how the congressional hearings were described, wasn't it? 

The conspiracy theory falls apart completely if we imagine that Jennifer from FINTRAC, that dude with the gelled-hair from the FBI, and that nice-wise-grand-dad-like senator were all "in on it."  I doubt those people had ever met prior to the senate hearings on virtual currencies.  I think the "love fest" was actually just a "balanced discussion" and shows that a lot of people in the US government are thoughtful and open-minded. 

Just think about it:  The Fed and Treasury actually behind BTC.  Oh, the possibilities boggle the mind!

The conclusion that I've come to is that if bitcoin was created by a government organization, it was done by a very small group of individuals working without the knowledge or permission of their superiors. 

[traderCJ]

The conclusion that I've come to is that if bitcoin was created by a government organization, it was done by a very small group of individuals working without the knowledge or permission of their superiors. 

I've come to the same conclusion, and really if we're talking about a small group of individuals working sans permission from their superiors, it really doesn't matter whether they're with the government or not.

Satoshi, whether a group or individual, was incredibly clever for not coming forward publicly to claim Bitcoin.  This focuses people's attention to the technology, not the man behind the technology.  How many times have we seen the messenger denigrated as a way to distract from the message?

[aminorex]

China is understood !!!

U.S give most BTC to China and takes most real money of the Chinese people. Give nothing for real money !!!
It is tactical general impoverishment of China.

Check this, 99% transaction U.S and China !!! Chinese real money (yuan) go to U.S wallets.
http://fiatleak.com/

The opposite is true.  China's funny paper (yuan) to the U.S., while real money (btc) go to China.  Same with gold.  We tried to send them USD, but they learned from that trick, and now they are sending us yuan.

[skivrmt]

There's a chance it'll hit $10k per BTC, albiet fairly small.

I doubt 100k, though.

I think the "easy" money is gone for Bitcoin.  I like the settling we're having in the 650-850 range.  Building up a good support, and of course resistance.  If bitcoin had a vix it would be off the wall, so a little price stability isn't bad at all.  If we see $2,000 next year I'd be happy.  Slow and steady wins the race...

2k is nothing at all. I have good money riding on 10k next year, but maybe you would like to enrich me a little further? http://bitbet.us/bet/635/1btc-10-000-usd/

Yes, I will take that bet.  For me, it's a win-win situation!  If it doesn't make it I get a 60% return currently.  If it does go above 10k by Nov 29th, I get a 1000%+ return.  How do I lose, right??

[jubalix]

i wonder how much the confiscated Ross Ulbricht coins will be worth a few years down the road.  I can see the headlines already: "jailed man single handedly paid off USA's debt to china"

yes that may get him a presidential pardon.

Hey Prez, want me to pay of your xT debt give me a pardon and I'll do it

[jubalix]

The conclusion that I've come to is that if bitcoin was created by a government organization, it was done by a very small group of individuals working without the knowledge or permission of their superiors. 

I've come to the same conclusion, and really if we're talking about a small group of individuals working sans permission from their superiors, it really doesn't matter whether they're with the government or not.

Satoshi, whether a group or individual, was incredibly clever for not coming forward publicly to claim Bitcoin.  This focuses people's attention to the technology, not the man behind the technology.  How many times have we seen the messenger denigrated as a way to distract from the message?

I agree Satoshi was incredibly clever for not coming forward publicly, but for other reasons, he has essentially semi deified himself, entered in mythology and there can be little criticism of him, nor can he be decried, or make a mistake.

He would have faced all of these issues had he remained public.

It interesting for that Satoshi had enough foresight to actually understand the implications of what he had just done so many years out.

[Ibian]

Also someone would have offed him by now if his identity was known. So, there is that.

[Batshit]

The Department of Defense has DARPA.  The CIA has multiple Black Ops.  It is not impossible that those at the Fed, Treasury, or CIA had the foresight to have created their own DARPA equivalent plans and responses, then seeded those responses as a response to the ongoing crisis.  Low and behold one of them actually took root and now we are where we are with it.

Satoshi is thought to have mined almost 1 million BTC?  Really, now...what real life person or group of people would have the discipline to resist so much temptation?  Sure, it could be those early coins were tossed away on a HDD, but I give such a genius or geniuses more credit than that.  Well, people are watching those coins now.  Perhaps someday, all will be made known.

As per my previous post, Treasury has more to gain than any other person or entity.  Follow the money...

[neutrinox]

Guys, think about it for a while.

To be able to control worlds reserve currency is one of the biggest weapons US has. Why on earth would they be giving that power willingly away? That is just not plausible. Americans would also never ever invent a currency that calls one of its units with a japanese name "Satoshi".

Remember that the people running US are not exactly technological geniuses. Many of the have serious problems even understanding what bitcoin is about. Can you imagine a secret meeting in which some government hacker suggests:

"Hey guys, I came up with this idea! Now this might sound complicated to some of you but it's really great.. Well we can't control our currency anymore if we do this, but please listen the whole story before you downvote! It's based on cryptography which you NSA guys hate, but don't be too fast to dismiss this complicated plan..."

After the long silence, there would probably be a single liner like "Tom, your fired."