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Author Topic: When would you invest 10k$ ?  (Read 4237 times)
Tamis
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November 22, 2013, 10:28:45 AM
 #1

I'm about to send 10k$ to bitstamp and I'm really wondering when i'm going to buy !

Right now I think i'm going to wait for another correction but there is a possibility it will not really correct any time soon...

What would you do if you had 10k$ on bitstamp ?
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leogdesouza
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November 22, 2013, 01:17:56 PM
 #2

Same here... not the large amount, but not sure when to buy..

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St.Bit
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November 22, 2013, 03:28:44 PM
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What would you do if you had 10k$ on bitstamp ?
Besides buying a fixed USD amount every day or so you shouldn't just buy bitcoins.

As long as you haven't any fixed ideas on BTC vs altcoins the best would be to invest based on the ratio of marketcaps of the most important cryptos. That's now like 97% in bitcoin, some litecoins and maby a few PPC to round it up.

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November 22, 2013, 03:30:44 PM
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What would you do if you had 10k$ on bitstamp ?
Besides buying a fixed USD amount every day or so you shouldn't just buy bitcoins.

As long as you haven't any fixed ideas on BTC vs altcoins the best would be to invest based on the ratio of marketcaps of the most important cryptos. That's now like 97% in bitcoin, some litecoins and maby a few PPC to round it up.

For me it's almost everything in Bitcoin and <0.1% in LTC and <0.1% in PPC (with PPC>LTC)

And about buying in now? No-one knows or will be able to advise you correctly sorry. I would hate to be buying at ATHs though. If you're going to start, please Dollar cost average a fixed amount each month or something.

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November 22, 2013, 03:48:31 PM
 #5

For me it's almost everything in Bitcoin and <0.1% in LTC and <0.1% in PPC (with PPC>LTC)

I belive this is a very bad decision, but not as bad as just bitcoin. (exept maby PPC>LTC)

Noone can be 99.9% sure that bitcoin will keep it's monopoly on crypto. That's how sure you would have to be to justify your gambling against LTC,PPC here as investment. If it were just 99.98% of (new) money flowing into bitcoin and rest into LTC/PPC those would increase %-wise far stronger than bitcoin and you would be worse of than going by the ratios.

It's enough risk to bet on crypto now, but investing in just 1 coin is stupid unless you can be 100% sure you are smarter than the market.

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wachtwoord
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November 22, 2013, 03:58:40 PM
 #6

For me it's almost everything in Bitcoin and <0.1% in LTC and <0.1% in PPC (with PPC>LTC)

I belive this is a very bad decision, but not as bad as just bitcoin. (exept maby PPC>LTC)

Noone can be 99.9% sure that bitcoin will keep it's monopoly on crypto. That's how sure you would have to be to justify your gambling against LTC,PPC here as investment. If it were just 99.98% of (new) money flowing into bitcoin and rest into LTC/PPC those would increase %-wise far stronger than bitcoin and you would be worse of than going by the ratios.

It's enough risk to bet on crypto now, but investing in just 1 coin is stupid unless you can be 100% sure you are smarter than the market.

But LTC has worse properties than BTC and it's behind. Furthermore there will be 84M of them.

May be I cannot be certain which cryptocurrency wil make it but there is simply too many of them to (profitably) diversify in all of them. Thus far LTC and PPC are the only ones I give at least some chance of sticking around. Therefore I saved all money from giveaways (PPC and LTC) and what I mined myself (LTC).

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November 22, 2013, 06:25:40 PM
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But LTC has worse properties than BTC and it's behind. Furthermore there will be 84M of them.

You didn't get my point.

For your current diversification you would have to be at least 99.98% sure that everyone that buys crypto with USD will buy only Bitcoin and not exchange later to LTC or PPC. (Or 100% sure that 99.98% of all people buying crypto will buy bitcoins and don't exchange later). Marketcap of all cryptos is still damm small, so only people who don't already have crypto matter.

You really think you can be THAT sure?
Otherwise you should buy more PPC and LTC untill you have ~97% BTC in your portfolio.

Everything more than 97% bitcoin is a bet favouring BTC vs LTC&PPC
and everyting less it a bet favouring PPC&LTC. Betting on crypto as whole is risk enough, no need for additional drama.


May be I cannot be certain which cryptocurrency wil make it but there is simply too many of them to (profitably) diversify in all of them. Thus far LTC and PPC are the only ones I give at least some chance of sticking around. Therefore I saved all money from giveaways (PPC and LTC) and what I mined myself (LTC).

Profitability of adding another crypto depends on how much you have. It doesn't make sense to buy fractions of an unknown, worthless altcoin. LTC,PPC,NMC* are different since their marketshares matters. If another crypto reaches their marketshare you could still buy it later on and won't miss the train on a unlikely, but possibly bitcoin-killer.


*isn't actually a cryptocurrency, but damm did it rise lately



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wachtwoord
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November 22, 2013, 07:02:22 PM
 #8

I think the most likely Bitcoin killer hasn't been invented yet.

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November 22, 2013, 08:18:48 PM
 #9

To answer your question, BTC is currently trading around $760 and has been fluctuating from about $570-750 the past few days. I'm not sure of the exact numbers, these are just my own numbers from watching the charts and noticing the price ranges that are most common (so the high might actually be 850 but it's so uncommon that I don't include it in my spread).

Therefore it seems to be trading high today so I would probably wait it out through this upcoming Monday to see if you can get a price under 650 and buy then. If that hasn't happened, then just go ahead and pay anything under 800 on Monday. Since you're spending $10k I'm assuming you're looking to invest long-term so if you actually believe in BTC then the difference between buying in at 650 and 750 is negligible.

I would also recommend putting 1-2k of your investment into LTC. I bought in at $3 and it has performed well so far.
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November 22, 2013, 08:57:05 PM
 #10

altcoins are moving pretty much with bitcoin. THey really just trade on a ratio of bitcoin.

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Mondy
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November 23, 2013, 01:24:46 AM
 #11

Buy now!the price will continue to rise!

St.Bit
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November 23, 2013, 02:36:26 AM
 #12

I think the most likely Bitcoin killer hasn't been invented yet.
I agree.

The key to finding it is in regulary adjusting your portfolio on newcomers. PPC's marketcap is currently 0.3% of BTC, so if you spend 0.3% of your bitcoins on PPC you wouldn't loose if PPC destroyes bitcoin.(Won't happen) Look at the ratio of marketkaps and if you find a newcomer that exeeds f.e. 0.3%* you buy it with 0.3%of your coins and don't look at it ever again.

If it outperformed BTC you weren't outperformed by the market, and if it collapses you probably will loose far less than 0.3%. Unless it's total garbage it will still outperform USD after a while.


Finding the right threshold(0.3%) is tricky. You still have to check if the newcomer is currently hyped or even total trash. This strategy is when you have no opinion on an altcoin, but I would say f.e. that the current 1:338 domination of bitcoin vs PPC isn't justified at all.

LTC is impossible to estimate and every BTC other altcoin is not more than an expensive lottery ticket.

Note:
Mistakes are the best teachers.
Making a mistake once and it will teach you a lesson.
Even if you didn't understand it the first time,
it will always repeat it for you.

I didn't follow my own advice here and went full retard on altcoins at their ATH vs BTC.
I still made some money, but damm, I could have made a fortune.


if you actually believe in BTC then the difference between buying in at 650 and 750 is negligible.

That's total BS, it's the 100% opposite.
Let's say you spend 10grand (@650 or 750) and you expect Bitcoin to rise to 10k$ each. The diffenence would then be 133k$, that's serious money and far more than your initial investment. Gambling on finding the right spot to buy is gambling with a fortune although you just spend less than it.
See corrected version in my next post.

I do expect a serious correction soon, but betting on it is a gamble.
Go cost averaging unless you would be willing to gamble with that serious money aswell.

Sign a message and get some YAC: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=300152.0
501
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November 23, 2013, 04:21:31 AM
 #13

if you actually believe in BTC then the difference between buying in at 650 and 750 is negligible.

That's total BS, it's the 100% opposite.
Let's say you spend 10grand (@650 or 750) and you expect Bitcoin to rise to 10k$ each. The difference would then be 133k$, that's serious money and far more than your initial investment. Gambling on finding the right spot to buy is gambling with a fortune although you just spend less than it.

I think you calculated that incorrectly. If it rises from 650 to 10k, then from your initial 10k investment you've made $153k in revenue. If it rises from 750 to 10k, you've made $133k, which is only a 13% difference. Personally I don't find it that important but I agree that it is going to be up to him to decide what his risk threshold is. If he waits for it to drop to 650 and it instead increases to 850 and never drops, then he has already lost out and could turn into one of those "I'm gonna buy it next time it crashes (never)" people. This is why I think that just buying in at a relatively decent price is his best bet.
PenAndPaper
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November 23, 2013, 04:33:00 AM
 #14

Maybe thinking about what you want to achieve with your investment will help you decide.
I mean you plan to sell when the price doubles or something? Then you should probably wait for a correction.

You mean to hoard the 12 coins you can buy right now and become a millionaire when bitcoin hits 100.000$. Then waiting for a price dip will not make such a diiference  Tongue Tongue
Sindelar1938
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November 23, 2013, 05:25:50 AM
 #15

Invest to a systematic schedule, no one can time the market optimally all the time

And yes if you are starting out diversify into litecoins if you will..

St.Bit
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November 23, 2013, 06:13:56 AM
 #16

Maybe thinking about what you want to achieve with your investment will help you decide.
I mean you plan to sell when the price doubles or something? Then you should probably wait for a correction.

You mean to hoard the 12 coins you can buy right now and become a millionaire when bitcoin hits 100.000$. Then waiting for a price dip will not make such a diiference  Tongue Tongue

I never though of bitcoin as a way to get more fiat currency ...


if you actually believe in BTC then the difference between buying in at 650 and 750 is negligible.

That's total BS, it's the 100% opposite.
Let's say you spend 10grand (@650 or 750) and you expect Bitcoin to rise to 10k$ each. The diffenence would then be 133k$, that's serious money and far more than your initial investment.

How the hell did I fuck up such an easy calculation and didn't even notice that it was so extremly far off ...

I shouldn't do math when I'm so sleep deprivationed like now.

Gambling on finding the right spot to buy is gambling with a fortune although you just spend less than it.
Depending on your expectations, but in that example it still was more than the double the initial investment.

I do expect a serious correction soon, but betting on it is a gamble.
Go cost averaging unless you would be willing to gamble with that serious money aswell.

I think you calculated that incorrectly. If it rises from 650 to 10k, then from your initial 10k investment you've made $153k in revenue. If it rises from 750 to 10k, you've made $133k, which is only a 13% difference. Personally I don't find it that important but I agree that it is going to be up to him to decide what his risk threshold is. If he waits for it to drop to 650 and it instead increases to 850 and never drops, then he has already lost out and could turn into one of those "I'm gonna buy it next time it crashes (never)" people. This is why I think that just buying in at a relatively decent price is his best bet.
THX

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November 23, 2013, 06:21:37 AM
 #17

What country are you in?  If you're in the U.S., you can get more bitcoins per dollar by buying at CampBX.

Tips much appreciated! 1PPJHDawPvjh6MEzsvXrMYLgpLmyAaNXUc
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November 23, 2013, 06:29:40 AM
 #18

What country are you in?  If you're in the U.S., you can get more bitcoins per dollar by buying at CampBX.

How is CampBX? Haven't really heard much about them.
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November 23, 2013, 06:31:07 AM
 #19

I think there's a good chance of a correction below $700 in the next week, but there are no guarantees.

The typical behavior is a sharp rise, panic buying, a quick sharp dip, panic selling, then a quick recovery to a point somewhat higher than the previous base.  It's hard to predict, but we might see a peak around $1100, a dip down to $600, and a recovery to around $900.

You could place limit buys at $500, $600, and $700.  That gives you an excellent chance of getting in at least a bit, and the possibility of getting some of it at a great price.


Tips much appreciated! 1PPJHDawPvjh6MEzsvXrMYLgpLmyAaNXUc
jzcjca00
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November 23, 2013, 06:35:22 AM
 #20

What country are you in?  If you're in the U.S., you can get more bitcoins per dollar by buying at CampBX.

How is CampBX? Haven't really heard much about them.

I've done some trades there, and they seem honest and trustworthy.  The web interface is slow and awkward, but it works.  Liquidity is low, but coins are cheaper there than elsewhere.  I wouldn't store large amounts of coins or fiat on ANY exchange long term, but they are fine for small amounts for a short time.

Tips much appreciated! 1PPJHDawPvjh6MEzsvXrMYLgpLmyAaNXUc
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