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Author Topic: Bitcoin keeps failing  (Read 4777 times)
pening
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November 23, 2013, 05:24:55 PM
 #41

Very short-sighted my friend.

The currency is in it's infancy.  After mass adoption the price will become more and more stable as more and more resources are sold in Bitcoin.

When China trades oil in Crypto currencies perhaps you'll consider updating your views.

Of course by then the investment opportunity will long be gone.

you might like to consider that when China trades oil in crypto currencies, it will be its own generated one, not one it has no control over.      they'll pre-mine a new currency and run their own block chain in a bank of dedicated super computers.
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November 23, 2013, 07:47:48 PM
 #42

Let us not forget that the Bitcoin developer abandoned his project years ago and vanished.

Fortunately there are other currencies with active developers rising to the challenge. Don't worry, if Bitcoin becomes a sheer object of speculation others will find a way. Bookmark this page: http://coinmarketcap.com/

Breaking news! Sell bitcoin, sell bitcoin! Micro guy says bitcoin is abandoned!

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November 25, 2013, 08:04:31 AM
 #43

Very short-sighted my friend.

The currency is in it's infancy.  After mass adoption the price will become more and more stable as more and more resources are sold in Bitcoin.

When China trades oil in Crypto currencies perhaps you'll consider updating your views.

Of course by then the investment opportunity will long be gone.

you might like to consider that when China trades oil in crypto currencies, it will be its own generated one, not one it has no control over.      they'll pre-mine a new currency and run their own block chain in a bank of dedicated super computers.

WRONG!  China has to buy energy from other countries.  And those countries will only deal in a currency they trust.  That's going to be a decentralized crypto currency.  Right now that looks like Bitcoin.  (You heard it hear first.)
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November 27, 2013, 11:03:49 PM
 #44

The currency is in it's infancy.  After mass adoption the price will become more and more stable as more and more resources are sold in Bitcoin.

I bet Satoshi wouldn't agree with u. He wrote that price will go up non-stop, otherwise fees wouldn't cover mining expenses.

At a slow rate though, like inflation but in the opposite direction. Single-digit percentages annually in the long term. Before, with inflationary systems, you were presented the choice of (1) lose value at a rate of X%, around 3% in the US, to inflation, as a penalty for holding your money, or (2) invest your money by letting someone else hold it for you, like a bank at the least, who invests it, or invest it directly. (2) was the only option if you wanted a shot at increasing your assets' value. The people actively investing the money get the full return for value added to the economy in the form of productivity. Any intermediaries take a slice, and holding it yourself is like anti-investment.

It only makes sense that an asset at a fixed quantity, like Bitcoin, if used as a symbol of value for a large majority of the world's population, will increase in value. In essence, Bitcoin is worth the sum of:
Vprev Its previous value, plus
VGDP A value equivalent to the GDP poured into it by the labor of its users (as people come to using BTC for wages and remain basically "inside" the economy), minus
Vex Anything that leaves the currency (buying things by converting from BTC to some other currency), plus
Vspec Perceived value-ad, which is created by speculators (by buying BTC with some other currency).

As time progresses, (A) will always increase overall unless (C) outweighs it, which I can say is highly unlikely due to the psychology of the network effect; (B) will become the most influential, tying the value of the currency to our productivity as a species; (C) will become insignificant, as stated above, and (D) which, is necessary to bootstrap a decentralized and unbacked currency like Bitcoin, and which currently props up the currency, will become unnecessary.

This is why Bitcoin can be described as having a binary outcome. If Vspec outweighs Vex for a period of time sufficient to cause VGDP to be sufficient to offset Vex on its own permanently, due to the network effect, then congratulations, you have bootstrapped a currency. The addition of the large backers in recent memory (Winklevoss twins, Richard Branson, etc.) virtually guaranteed that, and the remaining fear would be that a top economy would essentially outlaw it, but China embraced it, which forces the US to embrace it or not at their own peril -- and all signs point toward embrace. So, by all likelihood, we are past the biggest dangers to the currency achieving minimum orbital velocity.

In this way, simply holding BTC is an act of investment in the productivity of the human species, without requiring an intermediary. You can of course invest in specific subsets of the species (companies) that you're betting on beating the average, which will remain a smart move probably. But holding money isn't like giving it away as a penalty, anymore. So yes, it will become stable enough for use. Or, it won't be used at all, in the long term. There will be no middle ground, except for now, during the bootstrapping stage where Vspec is the greatest component of Vprev at any given time, thus subjecting it to instability. This is temporary. It is certain that if we are still talking about Bitcoin in a few years and not as a history lesson, it will have reached a point of stability congruous with usability.

Uberlurker. Been here since the Finney transaction. Please consider this before replying; there is a good chance I've heard it before.

-Citizenfive
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