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Author Topic: 1 Million dollars per coin by year 2020. I am not kidding.  (Read 13507 times)
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November 23, 2013, 10:10:19 AM
 #41

Whenever these posts start appearing it means a crash is incoming.   Roll Eyes

youse a crazy rabbit.


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November 23, 2013, 10:19:19 AM
 #42

Ever noticed how several mil on the markets push the so called bitcoin market cap up by a few bil? So atm there's like 100 times less at the exhanges than the market cap. looking at future pricing and extrapolating a bit it looks like 1 trillion on the exhanges could result in 100 trillion market cap easily. Resulting in a price of over 4 mil. Imo, we'll reach a mil/btc easily.

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November 23, 2013, 11:44:13 AM
 #43

It's quite possible for a bitcoin to be worth US$1 million without 21 million * US$1 million having being spent on buying them, or even that much fiat existing in the world.  Price is based solely on the last price bitcoin was traded for.  Maybe we will see a speculative bubble of 'investors' swapping bitcoins between themselves until the price really skyrockets.  The real test is whether even a small proportion of them can cash out without crashing the price.

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November 23, 2013, 02:26:16 PM
 #44

As has been said, there doesn't need to be enough wealth in the world for something to be worth a certain amount. If everyone tried to sell all their bitcoins now they value would plummet to nothing almost instantly.
Supply and demand, if people want them and the supply isn't there than the value goes up.
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November 23, 2013, 05:39:32 PM
 #45

We all need to get a drink and chill out

Some of the future visions on here are positively scary..

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November 23, 2013, 05:49:25 PM
 #46

The real test is whether even a small proportion of them can cash out without crashing the price.

This. There is so little money on exchanges now, so the money on exchanges has to increase at least 1000x  Shocked
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November 23, 2013, 06:03:38 PM
 #47

those comments always make me keep my Bitcoins in my wallet instead of using them Sad
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November 23, 2013, 06:09:30 PM
 #48

those comments always make me keep my Bitcoins in my wallet instead of using them Sad

I hope u won't overkeep them.
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November 23, 2013, 06:14:31 PM
 #49

If everyone who had 1 Bitcoin became a millionaire then the world would have far to many millionaires and that status would not be as prestigious as today. Some people have thousands of Bitcoin so do the math, its pretty much impossible.


i think there is about 350 000 bitcoin owners in the world. if they all became milionaires/billionaires/dagobertducks they are still nothing compared to the currently at least 12 million existing millionaires.

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November 23, 2013, 06:35:53 PM
 #50

If everyone who had 1 Bitcoin became a millionaire then the world would have far to many millionaires and that status would not be as prestigious as today. Some people have thousands of Bitcoin so do the math, its pretty much impossible.

i think there is about 350 000 bitcoin owners in the world. if they all became milionaires/billionaires/dagobertducks they are still nothing compared to the currently at least 12 million existing millionaires.



Not all bitcoin owners have 1 BTC. For example me.

And for the price 1 Million dollars per coin, it really doesnt matter if some have thousands of Bitcoin, or many under 1 Bitcoin, there will be only 21 Million coins total Smiley
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November 23, 2013, 06:44:40 PM
 #51

To add some perspective, the ~30,000 Bitcoins seized by the FBI from silkroad would be worth $30,000,000,000 if each Bitcoin was worth $1mil.
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November 23, 2013, 06:48:01 PM
 #52

Well, Credit Suisse does expect the number of millionaires worldwide to increase by about 18 million in the next 5 years.  Smiley
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November 23, 2013, 06:50:48 PM
 #53

To add some perspective, the ~30,000 Bitcoins seized by the FBI from silkroad would be worth $30,000,000,000 if each Bitcoin was worth $1mil.
If they manage to find the rest of the 600,000 or so perhaps BTC would save face on some of the US deficit issues somewhat lol.

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November 23, 2013, 07:02:00 PM
 #54

To add some perspective, the ~30,000 Bitcoins seized by the FBI from silkroad would be worth $30,000,000,000 if each Bitcoin was worth $1mil.
If they manage to find the rest of the 600,000 or so perhaps BTC would save face on some of the US deficit issues somewhat lol.

To be honest I think the US Gov would rather spend the $30,000,000,000 on a new nuclear missile or something. Doing something sensible, and for the people is not really their style.
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November 23, 2013, 07:14:19 PM
 #55

To add some perspective, the ~30,000 Bitcoins seized by the FBI from silkroad would be worth $30,000,000,000 if each Bitcoin was worth $1mil.

i thought they sized 140 000 btc
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November 23, 2013, 07:21:30 PM
 #56

To add some perspective, the ~30,000 Bitcoins seized by the FBI from silkroad would be worth $30,000,000,000 if each Bitcoin was worth $1mil.

i thought they sized 140 000 btc

I did a quick search as I was not sure and 30,000BTC was mentioned, it might have been more as the article might have been early or based on rumors.
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November 23, 2013, 07:22:43 PM
 #57

BTC can gone in 1 sec, and fall at 1 usd, because I do not want to pay BTC above 100 usd,
just in case it BTC be recognized by all world bank, then I can pay bitcoin 1000, 5000, or 100 000 usd,
for now 100 usd is maximum.

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Братских народов союз вековой,
Предками данная мудрость народная!
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November 23, 2013, 08:02:59 PM
 #58

The real test is whether even a small proportion of them can cash out without crashing the price.

This. There is so little money on exchanges now, so the money on exchanges has to increase at least 1000x  Shocked

This exchange describes a real marketplace dynamic.  However, a critical response to it illustrates some important points which most people overlook.

Firstly, given that the bitcoin appreciate, while the fiat depreciates, it would be very unwise for any of them to cash out, except in small part, as they require fiat to pay taxes or transact with atavistic counterparties.  

Secondly, it matters not to the price of bitcoin whether all the holders cash out, so long as others take their place.

Thirdly, while the dynamic addressed in the quotes above plays an important role in the price of bitcoin, it is completely irrelevant to the value of bitcoin.  The price is subject to sentiment, speculation, and imbalances of supply and demand, while the value of bitcoin derives from its monetary uses, and is described by Fisher's quantity theory of money: PQ = MV.

More interesting for society than the question of whether the price of bitcoin reaches $US2013 1mm, is the independent question of whether the monetary value of bitcoin will reach the equivalent of $US2013 1mm.  While the former is very possible, I am skeptical of the latter because bitcoin is unlikely to displace all alternative monetary applications.  Assuming 21mm bitcoin and a velocity of 6, the current global GDP priced in bitcoin implies a maximum value of about $US2013 320,000.    Now it is possible that velocity will be less when currency has better wealth storage utility, and it is possible that maximum value will be reached long before M reaches 21mm, and it is possible that global GDP will grow significantly in the interim, and if the product of these sources of increase rises to about 3, that would suffice to imply a global capacity sufficient to raise the value of bitcoin to 1mm $US2013, however I doubt that bitcoin will ever replace more than half of all monetary applications.  Even half requires a substantial stretch of the imagination.

In short, as a value investor, were bitcoin to rise to 1mm, I would definitely be a seller.  In contrast, at 100k, I might still be a buyer, depending on the prospects for growth in use.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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November 23, 2013, 08:52:57 PM
 #59

The real test is whether even a small proportion of them can cash out without crashing the price.

This. There is so little money on exchanges now, so the money on exchanges has to increase at least 1000x  Shocked

This exchange describes a real marketplace dynamic.  However, a critical response to it illustrates some important points which most people overlook.

Firstly, given that the bitcoin appreciate, while the fiat depreciates, it would be very unwise for any of them to cash out, except in small part, as they require fiat to pay taxes or transact with atavistic counterparties.  

Secondly, it matters not to the price of bitcoin whether all the holders cash out, so long as others take their place.

Thirdly, while the dynamic addressed in the quotes above plays an important role in the price of bitcoin, it is completely irrelevant to the value of bitcoin.  The price is subject to sentiment, speculation, and imbalances of supply and demand, while the value of bitcoin derives from its monetary uses, and is described by Fisher's quantity theory of money: PQ = MV.

More interesting for society than the question of whether the price of bitcoin reaches $US2013 1mm, is the independent question of whether the monetary value of bitcoin will reach the equivalent of $US2013 1mm.  While the former is very possible, I am skeptical of the latter because bitcoin is unlikely to displace all alternative monetary applications.  Assuming 21mm bitcoin and a velocity of 6, the current global GDP priced in bitcoin implies a maximum value of about $US2013 320,000.    Now it is possible that velocity will be less when currency has better wealth storage utility, and it is possible that maximum value will be reached long before M reaches 21mm, and it is possible that global GDP will grow significantly in the interim, and if the product of these sources of increase rises to about 3, that would suffice to imply a global capacity sufficient to raise the value of bitcoin to 1mm $US2013, however I doubt that bitcoin will ever replace more than half of all monetary applications.  Even half requires a substantial stretch of the imagination.

In short, as a value investor, were bitcoin to rise to 1mm, I would definitely be a seller.  In contrast, at 100k, I might still be a buyer, depending on the prospects for growth in use.


+1
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November 23, 2013, 08:56:21 PM
 #60

optimistic but maybe

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