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Author Topic: Bitcoin is rising in value for no good reason at all  (Read 5360 times)
mikeymillie
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November 23, 2013, 06:38:49 AM
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It is rising as fast as it is only because transacting in it is terribly disincentivized (which is the complete opposite of what it claims). 
You can't spend it easily, and you can't change it back into fiat easily. Once people who bought in figure this out, what else is there to do but hold it?
And this kicks off the recursive bubble process:

People don't want to spend it because they'll lose out on market gains.  When I say 'spend' i am also referring to buying fiat with it, not just goods.

No spending = supply bottleneck #1, causing it to become harder to buy, making it in higher demand, reducing incentive to spend it even further, bottlenecking supply further still, raising value, etc.  Inflate the balloon.

Not only do people not want to spend it, it is exceedingly difficult do when you do. I am not talking a handful of token "look at me hop on the bitcoin fadwagon, gibe me free press coverage nao thx" pizzas and subway sandwiches and VPN accounts here, i am talking real consumer economy-driving spending. 

And wait till mom and pop average figure out how hard it is (if not impossible) to get any hard cash funds out of any exchange (i am looking at you, Mt.Gox, with your 7 day email response times), particularly US$, and most acutely when they *need* it back for holiday shopping. Cue flood of evening news hit piece stories on the long faced sad sacks and bag holders who are astonished to find that they can't buy their family Christmas presents because their bitcoin 'bonanza' is useless as a means of practical day to day commerce.

I suspect that up to half of the apparent "popularity" of Bitcoin the past 4 weeks or so, is entirely due to the friction of moving funds in - and especially out -  of Bitcoin.   

And when the upper middle class to wealthy Chinese who only care about Bitcoin as a means to move RMB out of china into USD under the radar, find out just how much of a pain in the ass it is to turn it into USD, their support is going to disappear in a puff of panic.

I believe in the underlying concept of bitcoin but I am getting the feeling it is going to die from over exposure before it is ready to handle the attention.
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November 23, 2013, 06:42:22 AM
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no good reason? well, the senate has spoken about it. before then, it was up in the air whether we thought government was okay with it. so people speculated, thinking that more people would invest into BTC because you know.. it didn't seem like government was against it.

now we are hearing more and more companies are starting to accept it too.

are those reasons not good enough for you?
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November 23, 2013, 06:43:12 AM
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for me it wasnt hard to cash out bitcoins so far. you are just butthurt if you ask me or tried wrong exchanges. try to connect to your peer....

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mikeymillie
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November 23, 2013, 06:53:57 AM
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no good reason? well, the senate has spoken about it. before then, it was up in the air whether we thought government was okay with it. so people speculated, thinking that more people would invest into BTC because you know.. it didn't seem like government was against it.

now we are hearing more and more companies are starting to accept it too.

are those reasons not good enough for you?

The senate didn't say anything they couldn't easily backtrack on later if it suits them.  It certainly was not an endorsement, only a rather bland concession that virtual currencies (not, specifically, bitcoin) should be watched, but not touched, for the time being.

Companies accepting Bitcoin is great but it means nothing long term.  There is nothing preventing them from taking down their bitcoin windows stickers when they feel like the extra volatility isn't worth the extra business any more.  And the media will eat this up:  "All across the country, more and more businesses are fed up with Bitcoin and pulling the plug"  
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November 23, 2013, 07:00:37 AM
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Bitcoin is just a value protocol. Right now in its raw form it is a bit like dos before windows. All the new bitcoin startups this year are for apps that will make bitcoin easier to use. (Some kind of buffering against price swings is in order). It will suck less, keep the faith.
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November 23, 2013, 07:01:37 AM
 #6

no good reason? well, the senate has spoken about it. before then, it was up in the air whether we thought government was okay with it. so people speculated, thinking that more people would invest into BTC because you know.. it didn't seem like government was against it.

now we are hearing more and more companies are starting to accept it too.

are those reasons not good enough for you?

The senate didn't say anything they couldn't easily backtrack on later if it suits them.  It certainly was not an endorsement, only a rather bland concession that virtual currencies (not, specifically, bitcoin) should be watched, but not touched, for the time being.

Companies accepting Bitcoin is great but it means nothing long term.  There is nothing preventing them from taking down their bitcoin windows stickers when they feel like the extra volatility isn't worth the extra business any more.  And the media will eat this up:  "All across the country, more and more businesses are fed up with Bitcoin and pulling the plug"  

Non-issue with payment processors like BitPay.  They can't lose to volatility if their payment processor converts to fiat.

mikeymillie
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November 23, 2013, 07:08:50 AM
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no good reason? well, the senate has spoken about it. before then, it was up in the air whether we thought government was okay with it. so people speculated, thinking that more people would invest into BTC because you know.. it didn't seem like government was against it.

now we are hearing more and more companies are starting to accept it too.

are those reasons not good enough for you?

The senate didn't say anything they couldn't easily backtrack on later if it suits them.  It certainly was not an endorsement, only a rather bland concession that virtual currencies (not, specifically, bitcoin) should be watched, but not touched, for the time being.

Companies accepting Bitcoin is great but it means nothing long term.  There is nothing preventing them from taking down their bitcoin windows stickers when they feel like the extra volatility isn't worth the extra business any more.  And the media will eat this up:  "All across the country, more and more businesses are fed up with Bitcoin and pulling the plug"  

Non-issue with payment processors like BitPay.  They can't lose to volatility if their payment processor converts to fiat.

You mean the one payment processor, Bitpay.  A company that is still living off VC money and thus can afford to burn investment cash to run a risky insurance hedge until it runs out.   Then what?
the joint
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November 23, 2013, 07:12:01 AM
 #8

no good reason? well, the senate has spoken about it. before then, it was up in the air whether we thought government was okay with it. so people speculated, thinking that more people would invest into BTC because you know.. it didn't seem like government was against it.

now we are hearing more and more companies are starting to accept it too.

are those reasons not good enough for you?

The senate didn't say anything they couldn't easily backtrack on later if it suits them.  It certainly was not an endorsement, only a rather bland concession that virtual currencies (not, specifically, bitcoin) should be watched, but not touched, for the time being.

Companies accepting Bitcoin is great but it means nothing long term.  There is nothing preventing them from taking down their bitcoin windows stickers when they feel like the extra volatility isn't worth the extra business any more.  And the media will eat this up:  "All across the country, more and more businesses are fed up with Bitcoin and pulling the plug"  

Non-issue with payment processors like BitPay.  They can't lose to volatility if their payment processor converts to fiat.

You mean the one payment processor, Bitpay.  A company that is still living off VC money and thus can afford to burn investment cash to run a risky insurance hedge until it runs out.   Then what?

Uh, there's like at least a dozen...

mikeymillie
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November 23, 2013, 07:26:37 AM
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So?   It's a pretty easy business to be in while BTC is rising parabolically.  When it stops, and they are all now losing money on every transaction they process (which there will be a sudden avalanche of due to everyone holding BTC trying to get out of it),  I don't see how they will last.   
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November 23, 2013, 07:36:17 AM
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So?   It's a pretty easy business to be in while BTC is rising parabolically.  When it stops, and they are all now losing money on every transaction they process (which there will be a sudden avalanche of due to everyone holding BTC trying to get out of it),  I don't see how they will last.  

dude, just stop trolling. too may trolls bait smart people with their nonsense -

bitpay doesn't have currency risk either they just sell of on exchanges at market orders (that's why their prices change it adjust to what they can buy and sell at plus their possible markup)

you failed at making shit up

ok
the joint
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November 23, 2013, 07:37:46 AM
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So?   It's a pretty easy business to be in while BTC is rising parabolically.  When it stops, and they are all now losing money on every transaction they process (which there will be a sudden avalanche of due to everyone holding BTC trying to get out of it),  I don't see how they will last.   

A payment processor knows the price that they can get for a Bitcoin.  They charge the merchant that amount plus some small fee (the profit).  

Here's a flow chart:

Consumer --> Payment Processor (via merchant's deposit address) --> Bitcoin buyer

All of this happens in seconds.  The payment processor isn't exposed to risk of volatility unless they choose to be.

mikeymillie
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November 23, 2013, 07:41:29 AM
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So?   It's a pretty easy business to be in while BTC is rising parabolically.  When it stops, and they are all now losing money on every transaction they process (which there will be a sudden avalanche of due to everyone holding BTC trying to get out of it),  I don't see how they will last.  

dude, just stop trolling. too may trolls bait smart people with their nonsense -

bitpay doesn't have currency risk either they just sell of on exchanges at market orders (that's why their prices change it adjust to what they can buy and sell at plus their possible markup)

you failed at making shit up

So then what's the point of the regular guy merchant being a client of bitpay, etc.  if the payment processor just transfers the volatility risk back on to them?   In my non-bitcoin life I deal with retail merchants every day, and in trying to sell them on the Bitcoin concept, these are genuine concerns that come up in discussion.

This does nothing to stabilize prices and accommodating the fluctuation would makes their lives a lot harder than necessary. For what return?
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November 23, 2013, 07:45:26 AM
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So?   It's a pretty easy business to be in while BTC is rising parabolically.  When it stops, and they are all now losing money on every transaction they process (which there will be a sudden avalanche of due to everyone holding BTC trying to get out of it),  I don't see how they will last.  

dude, just stop trolling. too may trolls bait smart people with their nonsense -

bitpay doesn't have currency risk either they just sell of on exchanges at market orders (that's why their prices change it adjust to what they can buy and sell at plus their possible markup)

you failed at making shit up

So then what's the point of the regular guy merchant being a client of bitpay, etc.  if the payment processor just transfers the volatility risk back on to them?   In my non-bitcoin life I deal with retail merchants every day, and in trying to sell them on the Bitcoin concept, these are genuine concerns that come up in discussion.

This does nothing to stabilize prices and accommodating the fluctuation would makes their lives a lot harder than necessary. For what return?

Well, the merchant can reduce the prices (i.e. consumer wins) because the payment processor is charging ~1% instead of ~3%.  Then, the merchant wins too because they increase their profit margin.  And, the payment processor wins because they take ~1% cut.  It's a win-win-win.

 And, nobody is exposed to risk of volatility.  Only the Bitcoin buyer at the end of the line is exposed to volatility...unless, you know, they do something silly like spend it.

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November 23, 2013, 07:46:31 AM
 #14

...
And when the upper middle class to wealthy Chinese who only care about Bitcoin as a means to move RMB out of china into USD under the radar, find out just how much of a pain in the ass it is to turn it into USD, their support is going to disappear in a puff of panic.

I believe in the underlying concept of bitcoin but I am getting the feeling it is going to die from over exposure before it is ready to handle the attention.
What pain in the ass?  5-10% below market rate and you will have a line out the door with cash in hand. 
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November 23, 2013, 07:55:44 AM
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Hate to say it, but gotta agree with OP here. The bitcoin market is rather illiquid, so it can be difficult converting back to fiat at times, which no doubt factors into the bubble. Once you`re in, you can never get back out. Might as well ride the wave  Smiley

Night gathers, and now my bitcoinwisdom watch begins.
mikeymillie
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November 23, 2013, 08:30:58 AM
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Hate to say it, but gotta agree with OP here. The bitcoin market is rather illiquid, so it can be difficult converting back to fiat at times, which no doubt factors into the bubble. Once you`re in, you can never get back out. Might as well ride the wave  Smiley

Yeah, indeed.  Illiquid in almost the same sense that the Brooklyn Bridge market is illiquid...
mikeymillie
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November 23, 2013, 08:37:22 AM
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...
And when the upper middle class to wealthy Chinese who only care about Bitcoin as a means to move RMB out of china into USD under the radar, find out just how much of a pain in the ass it is to turn it into USD, their support is going to disappear in a puff of panic.

I believe in the underlying concept of bitcoin but I am getting the feeling it is going to die from over exposure before it is ready to handle the attention.
What pain in the ass?  5-10% below market rate and you will have a line out the door with cash in hand. 

Another example that only makes sense today, in bubble growth land where sloppy or careless business practices are drowned in hype-fueled growth numbers.  When the price starts eventually falling you are going to give away a lot more wealth than 5-10% on every conversion back into USD, it might even fall 5% in the time it takes to process the transaction. Also, this 'solution' will accelerate the crash that will already be happening and which is itself what is driving all these people to your door so they can get out of their BTC, stat. 
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November 23, 2013, 08:37:50 AM
 #18

Bitcoin is like spectrum à la FCC.  That stuff is real valuable, albeit more stable.


It is rising as fast as it is only because transacting in it is terribly disincentivized (which is the complete opposite of what it claims). 
You can't spend it easily, and you can't change it back into fiat easily. Once people who bought in figure this out, what else is there to do but hold it?
And this kicks off the recursive bubble process:

People don't want to spend it because they'll lose out on market gains.  When I say 'spend' i am also referring to buying fiat with it, not just goods.

No spending = supply bottleneck #1, causing it to become harder to buy, making it in higher demand, reducing incentive to spend it even further, bottlenecking supply further still, raising value, etc.  Inflate the balloon.

Not only do people not want to spend it, it is exceedingly difficult do when you do. I am not talking a handful of token "look at me hop on the bitcoin fadwagon, gibe me free press coverage nao thx" pizzas and subway sandwiches and VPN accounts here, i am talking real consumer economy-driving spending. 

And wait till mom and pop average figure out how hard it is (if not impossible) to get any hard cash funds out of any exchange (i am looking at you, Mt.Gox, with your 7 day email response times), particularly US$, and most acutely when they *need* it back for holiday shopping. Cue flood of evening news hit piece stories on the long faced sad sacks and bag holders who are astonished to find that they can't buy their family Christmas presents because their bitcoin 'bonanza' is useless as a means of practical day to day commerce.

I suspect that up to half of the apparent "popularity" of Bitcoin the past 4 weeks or so, is entirely due to the friction of moving funds in - and especially out -  of Bitcoin.   

And when the upper middle class to wealthy Chinese who only care about Bitcoin as a means to move RMB out of china into USD under the radar, find out just how much of a pain in the ass it is to turn it into USD, their support is going to disappear in a puff of panic.

I believe in the underlying concept of bitcoin but I am getting the feeling it is going to die from over exposure before it is ready to handle the attention.

Feel free to send along any spare floating point remainders: 1CVTqVbqHTw35xGKfp4vmxggKdkMVwswtr
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November 23, 2013, 08:44:20 AM
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You can't spend it easily...

how is that, it's supper easy to spend, what can be a pain is the buying side still.
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November 23, 2013, 08:48:12 AM
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for me it wasnt hard to cash out bitcoins so far. you are just butthurt if you ask me or tried wrong exchanges. try to connect to your peer....

Yea, doesnt seem too hard. Um localbitcoins is the fastest!

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