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Author Topic: 8/4/11 Speculation Thread  (Read 2687 times)
tacotime
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August 04, 2011, 05:10:15 PM
 #1

Volumes are healthy, not only in US markets but also in Canada and Britain.  It is the first time for the latter two to stabilize in terms of buyer/seller volume, normally seller volume for CAD/pound highly outstrips buyer volume.  It appears that US buyers may now be operating in these markets to make cash through forex when the price of BTC fluctuates as the overall trade volumes for these foreign markets has exploded over the past 24 hours.  This should bolster investment in the US market as well and enhance stability as BTC becomes further an international monetary instrument like gold.

Overall network hash rates have fallen sharply so the incoming supply of bitcoin through this medium is low.  Forecast: Final Mtgox close will be 10.75-11.5 by the end of the day.

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Edward50
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August 04, 2011, 05:20:48 PM
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One interesting thing to note is that there does not seem to be those large bid walls on mt gox anymore. That 10,000 bitwall that was at $9 yesterday is gone. Also the $10 bidwall is quite small at only around 1500 bitcoins.

Usually these walls are much higher. To me it seems like someone who usually puts up these (usually fake) bidwalls, has decided to leave the market. Maybe he has lost too much money by trying to stabalize the price. It actually seemed like yesterday this person pulled out trying to stabalize the market and that is why it crashed.

I agree the price may close up higher  today in the $11-$12.5 range. Usually after a big drop, the price goes up higher temporarily. It then starts to fall back slowly. If your holding bitcoins I would look for these temporary highs to sell out your bitcoins.

What I would see as a concern for buyers is that their doesn't seem to be many bidders (buyers) of bitcoins. Only a sale of a few thousands bitcoins would tank the market.

I would think most buyers are going to be very cautions when buying now, after we just hit a low yesterday.

Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless — like water. Now you put water in a cup, it becomes the cup; You put water into a bottle it becomes the bottle; You put it in a teapot it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
tacotime
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August 04, 2011, 05:58:06 PM
 #3

What I would see as a concern for buyers is that their doesn't seem to be many bidders (buyers) of bitcoins. Only a sale of a few thousands bitcoins would tank the market.

I would think most buyers are going to be very cautions when buying now, after we just hit a low yesterday.

We have the foreign (though not as large markets) available to help stabilize the price through foreign trading.  As soon at the Mtgox price goes down it can be bought and resold for small gains in the foreign markets as people seem to have figured out yesterday.  You don't really even need to handle foreign currency to benefit from the forex trade, just open an account at one of the other international trading places and push it back and forth between markets with BTC as the common ground.

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Edward50
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August 04, 2011, 06:08:46 PM
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What I would see as a concern for buyers is that their doesn't seem to be many bidders (buyers) of bitcoins. Only a sale of a few thousands bitcoins would tank the market.

I would think most buyers are going to be very cautions when buying now, after we just hit a low yesterday.

We have the foreign (though not as large markets) available to help stabilize the price through foreign trading.  As soon at the Mtgox price goes down it can be bought and resold for small gains in the foreign markets as people seem to have figured out yesterday.  You don't really even need to handle foreign currency to benefit from the forex trade, just open an account at one of the other international trading places and push it back and forth between markets with BTC as the common ground.

Interesting, I wonder how long one could profit from this before bots keep it almost 100% stable.

Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless — like water. Now you put water in a cup, it becomes the cup; You put water into a bottle it becomes the bottle; You put it in a teapot it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
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August 04, 2011, 06:09:11 PM
 #5

Watching those walls you mention get put up and torn down within seconds on mtgoxlive makes me go "hmmmm".  You can see the lines jump thousands of BTC or tens of thousands of USD all of a sudden.  There is a very large bot or human messing with us.  The only thing that is clear is that he has a ton of money to play with.  Confirms the speculators that always say "you think the market moves a lot now? wait until your average wallstreet guy comes in and starts throwing a few million around".
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August 04, 2011, 07:28:31 PM
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 There is a very large bot or human messing with us.  

I'm gld more people are starting to figure that out. A whole bunch of people got gamed yesterday.
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August 04, 2011, 08:53:30 PM
 #7

It's important not to overstate the importance of the visible bids and asks. Those show only the orders people have placed, but any number of additional orders could exist that haven't been placed yet. Thus, there is no way to know whether a wall is an overestimate or underestimate of true demand at that price.

Anecdotally - I am a "buyer" of bitcoins, and I don't have any placed orders. When I want to buy, I just do it at that moment, so my "interest" is invisible to everyone else. I assume most interest, on both the buy and sell side, is invisible.
Edward50
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August 04, 2011, 09:51:33 PM
 #8

 There is a very large bot or human messing with us.  

I'm gld more people are starting to figure that out. A whole bunch of people got gamed yesterday.

However, you should like this bot or human because he has been the reason why the price was stabalized for so long and held much higher. This person in my opinion has bought thousands of coins. It seems that he may have pulled out as he is finally realizing making money is a lost cause.

Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless — like water. Now you put water in a cup, it becomes the cup; You put water into a bottle it becomes the bottle; You put it in a teapot it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.
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August 04, 2011, 11:57:49 PM
 #9

Volumes are healthy, not only in US markets but also in Canada and Britain.  It is the first time for the latter two to stabilize in terms of buyer/seller volume, normally seller volume for CAD/pound highly outstrips buyer volume.  It appears that US buyers may now be operating in these markets to make cash through forex when the price of BTC fluctuates as the overall trade volumes for these foreign markets has exploded over the past 24 hours.  This should bolster investment in the US market as well and enhance stability as BTC becomes further an international monetary instrument like gold.

Overall network hash rates have fallen sharply so the incoming supply of bitcoin through this medium is low.  Forecast: Final Mtgox close will be 10.75-11.5 by the end of the day.

Interesting points! (bonus points for putting the date in the title, very good idea)

I'm curious about how feasible it is for foreigners to trade on those exchanges though...

I can only speak for the Canadian exchange (cavirtex.com) but for the time being at least, the only way to transfer money in or out is from a Canadian bank account from one of the 4 or 5 chartered banks.

Not sure if you can even open an account with one of those chartered banks without a valid Canadian home address. (I remember stories in the paper about how this limitation makes it very difficult for homeless people to get back on their feet...)

other payment/withdrawl options may be made available in the future, but it seems the people running virtex are very cautious about any kind of security or chargeback liability... (exactly why I love that exchange)

"You have no moral right to rule us, nor do you possess any methods of enforcement that we have reason to fear." - John Perry Barlow, 1996
tacotime
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August 05, 2011, 02:54:19 AM
 #10

No reason to deal with Canadian banks.

Deposit say 100BTC to Cavirtex or Britcoin.  Convert half of it to the local currency at whatever the going rate is.
Say Mtgox drops in price but Cavirtex remains the same.  Buy BTC at Mtgox, send it to Cavirtex, convert to CAD.  Eventually, the market at Cavirtex is likely to go down too.  When this happens, rebuy the bitcoins at this lower price, then send them back to Mtgox.
The same thing but backwards works fine if Mtgox raises in price but Cavirtex is still lower.  Doing this you could (at least formerly) make 6-10% in a day or so, albeit on small amount.  But that much in a couple of weeks means doubling your money.

Obviously it's slow to wait for the six confirmations, which is why you have the 50BTC/50BTC-CAD equivalents buffer.  The buffer is spent instantaneously while you wait for the confirmations for the amount you just used to be sent from your Mtgox account.

And now this'll probably be less profitable since I'd mentioned it, but oh well.  I'd settle for better trade volume on foreign exchanges; if bitcoin becomes a tiny-fee Forex market it has the potential to replace the other Forex markets which is best for everyone involved in bitcoin.

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August 05, 2011, 04:16:08 AM
 #11

 There is a very large bot or human messing with us.


think i just found him!




a very large human  Cheesy

Yep, he's my brohemoth

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August 05, 2011, 12:01:05 PM
 #12

No reason to deal with Canadian banks.

Deposit say 100BTC to Cavirtex or Britcoin.  Convert half of it to the local currency at whatever the going rate is.
Say Mtgox drops in price but Cavirtex remains the same.  Buy BTC at Mtgox, send it to Cavirtex, convert to CAD.  Eventually, the market at Cavirtex is likely to go down too.  When this happens, rebuy the bitcoins at this lower price, then send them back to Mtgox.
The same thing but backwards works fine if Mtgox raises in price but Cavirtex is still lower.  Doing this you could (at least formerly) make 6-10% in a day or so, albeit on small amount.  But that much in a couple of weeks means doubling your money.

Obviously it's slow to wait for the six confirmations, which is why you have the 50BTC/50BTC-CAD equivalents buffer.  The buffer is spent instantaneously while you wait for the confirmations for the amount you just used to be sent from your Mtgox account.

And now this'll probably be less profitable since I'd mentioned it, but oh well.  I'd settle for better trade volume on foreign exchanges; if bitcoin becomes a tiny-fee Forex market it has the potential to replace the other Forex markets which is best for everyone involved in bitcoin.

Thanks tacotime, I had not thought of that.

bitcoin is truly without borders.

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August 05, 2011, 07:31:16 PM
 #13

Come on, don't put NSFW pictures in the middle of normal threads.

Anyway, back to single digits we go.

$9.50 by this evening
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August 05, 2011, 09:11:58 PM
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Come on, don't put NSFW pictures in the middle of normal threads.


+1

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August 05, 2011, 09:16:08 PM
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Come on, don't put NSFW pictures in the middle of normal threads.

Anyway, back to single digits we go.

$9.50 by this evening

I think we'll get closer to $9 before the day is out.
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August 05, 2011, 09:17:06 PM
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Watching those walls you mention get put up and torn down within seconds on mtgoxlive makes me go "hmmmm".  You can see the lines jump thousands of BTC or tens of thousands of USD all of a sudden.  There is a very large bot or human messing with us.  The only thing that is clear is that he has a ton of money to play with.  Confirms the speculators that always say "you think the market moves a lot now? wait until your average wallstreet guy comes in and starts throwing a few million around".

Good thing it will be millions of USD, not millions of BTC.

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August 05, 2011, 09:18:44 PM
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Come on, don't put NSFW pictures in the middle of normal threads.

Anyway, back to single digits we go.

$9.50 by this evening

You say that like it's a good thing

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August 05, 2011, 09:31:28 PM
 #18

Watching those walls you mention get put up and torn down within seconds on mtgoxlive makes me go "hmmmm".  You can see the lines jump thousands of BTC or tens of thousands of USD all of a sudden.  There is a very large bot or human messing with us.  The only thing that is clear is that he has a ton of money to play with.  Confirms the speculators that always say "you think the market moves a lot now? wait until your average wallstreet guy comes in and starts throwing a few million around".

Good thing it will be millions of USD, not millions of BTC.

Somebody just threw up 10,000BTCs at $10.  Methinks we're going down.
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August 05, 2011, 09:39:34 PM
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Methinks we're going down.

And the weekend hasnt even started yet  Grin

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August 05, 2011, 09:40:28 PM
 #20

That 10000BTC wall is so fake, it'll rise to 10, sell maybe 100 and then the wall will disappear

Stan?! STAN?!?!
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