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Author Topic: Total hashrate falls considerably  (Read 4055 times)
grod
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August 05, 2011, 05:08:11 PM
 #41


My socket 775 P35DS3L has 4 pcie slots, as do many other budget motherboards.  It was available for around $80 when I bought it in 2008.  The E2180 CPU isn't worth much now but cost me $67 in 2008.  PCIe extenders can be bought for $3/each if you can wait 2 weeks or $12/ea if you need them fast.  PSUs sufficient for 3 cards are available under $90 constantly.  'Case' can be scrap lumber.

It's still possible to build efficiently even today if like the poster above you recycle buy GPU on sale/rebated and don't just fill a newegg cart with the latest hotness.  I believe far more people chose the expensive path, however.  And on high interest credit cards.  There are many sweating blood, no doubt about it.

As far as a hash drop:  you wish.  Deepbit is still adding about 100 Mhash/day and that figure is a bit more accurate since it's not computed from rate of solved blocks.

Hardware is not for sale yet because it's still profitable to mine.  When it gets sold it'll be on ebay and craigslist, and initially not at fire sale prices.  ATM I would not pay more than $70 for a 5830 I knew was used for mining for the last 2-3 months, would you?


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SgtSpike
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August 05, 2011, 05:10:30 PM
 #42


My socket 775 P35DS3L has 4 pcie slots, as do many other budget motherboards.  It was available for around $80 when I bought it in 2008.  The E2180 CPU isn't worth much now but cost me $67 in 2008.  PCIe extenders can be bought for $3/each if you can wait 2 weeks or $12/ea if you need them fast.  PSUs sufficient for 3 cards are available under $90 constantly.  'Case' can be scrap lumber.

It's still possible to build efficiently even today if like the poster above you recycle buy GPU on sale/rebated and don't just fill a newegg cart with the latest hotness.  I believe far more people chose the expensive path, however.  And on high interest credit cards.  There are many sweating blood, no doubt about it.

As far as a hash drop:  you wish.  Deepbit is still adding about 100 Mhash/day and that figure is a bit more accurate since it's not computed from rate of solved blocks.

Hardware is not for sale yet because it's still profitable to mine.  When it gets sold it'll be on ebay and craigslist, and initially not at fire sale prices.  ATM I would not pay more than $70 for a 5830 I knew was used for mining for the last 2-3 months, would you?
I would pay $110 if I was looking to add more cards and the previous owner still had the purchase papers and hadn't registered it for warranty.
Bigpiggy01
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August 05, 2011, 05:20:55 PM
 #43

If you're actively following the market and doing what you can to take advantage of EVERY little swing of it then a ROI on mining equipment is still very possible. However this is obviously not for everyone.

Atm building a cased rig from scratch that will do 1.4-1.6 G#/s (depending on how successful you are in clocking) can be done here in China for around 1150USD US prices should be very similar using AMD Athlon 455 cpu, 4gb kingston 1333 ram, Msi 890FXA mobo, tagan 1300W PSU, 6x 95cfr avc fans, all in an IN WIN Dragon Rider case with 4x saphire 5850 extreme.

The ROI on something like this should be 4-5months based on current difficulty and prices. Then again factor in a tiny bit of trading and you can easily cut at least 2 months off that.  Grin


grod
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August 05, 2011, 05:22:54 PM
 #44

I would pay $110 if I was looking to add more cards and the previous owner still had the purchase papers and hadn't registered it for warranty.

Another way to interpret that is "I wouldn't even buy it if I could find 5830s for $110 new right now."  Which doesn't conflict with my valuing severely used, non-warrantied cards at $70 or lower.
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August 05, 2011, 05:23:48 PM
 #45

I would pay $110 if I was looking to add more cards and the previous owner still had the purchase papers and hadn't registered it for warranty.

Another way to interpret that is "I wouldn't even buy it if I could find 5830s for $110 new right now."  Which doesn't conflict with my valuing severely used, non-warrantied cards at $70 or lower.
Eh.... fair enough.  Tongue
grod
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August 05, 2011, 05:30:13 PM
 #46


The ROI on something like this should be 4-5months based on current difficulty and prices. Then again factor in a tiny bit of trading and you can easily cut at least 2 months off that.  Grin



So you are factoring in a 175% return from 2-3 months of trading?  At first you will have 0 btc to trade, at the end 100%, so you're effectively looking at quadrupling your BTC stash over two months using on average 50% of your total BTC.

I won't question you massively outperforming everyone "with a tiny bit of trading", but if you are banking on such an amazing trading record why not skip building completely and invest the $1250 into BTC?  You'd be looking at far more BTC at the end of two months than that 4x5830 rig will ever mine because of compounding.  Even buying the rig at the end of 2 months instead of uprfront will still leave you with a 50% higher return.

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August 05, 2011, 06:14:13 PM
 #47

If you're actively following the market and doing what you can to take advantage of EVERY little swing of it then a ROI on mining equipment is still very possible. However this is obviously not for everyone.

Atm building a cased rig from scratch that will do 1.4-1.6 G#/s (depending on how successful you are in clocking) can be done here in China for around 1150USD US prices should be very similar using AMD Athlon 455 cpu, 4gb kingston 1333 ram, Msi 890FXA mobo, tagan 1300W PSU, 6x 95cfr avc fans, all in an IN WIN Dragon Rider case with 4x saphire 5850 extreme.

The ROI on something like this should be 4-5months based on current difficulty and prices. Then again factor in a tiny bit of trading and you can easily cut at least 2 months off that.  Grin


How much does electricity cost in China at the moment? Since we don't actually earn anything in local dollars until we convert it, that's the currency conversion costs. At the same, while USD to RMB is pegged, it might shift further if USD continues to slide. So there's the risk of losing a few more percentage in that few months before cashing out.
 
Would be interesting to see how you arrived at the 4~5 months ROI figure. Cheesy

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oakpacific
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August 05, 2011, 08:06:32 PM
 #48

Has anyone experimented with solar-powered mining yet?

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
Bigpiggy01
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August 05, 2011, 08:58:21 PM
 #49

My wife would never allow me to stick money directly into BTC plus that doing if from here is COMPLICATED (for outgoing international wires) and EXPENSIVE AS HELL on 1250USD wire I'd loose at least 100USD in fees and it'd take hours of time in the actual bank. However building a rig is building a rig and I think of it as at least half the fun plus if the prices drop to 0 you still have the hardware value (ok I know most peeps don't want 20 PCs but still).

As to trading my current average is somewhere between +0.8-1% a day averaged out over the last three months in terms of net fiat. Occasionally I can seriously out do that by adding a bit of forex into the equation as I still have accounts back home (UK and Denmark). With the options Ruxum are offering up, the ability of do serious forex leveraging are going to become INCREDIBLE especially since a lot of them are within one exchange.

As to my ROI calculation on that rig I use the following formula I consider it fairly conservative particularly in view of the recent hashrate drop and using a lowish price in view of recent history. And YUP I was overly optimistic in my previous post I forgot to factor in that you get a new starting point every few days, I built three of these month ago and the numbers were "good" then.

NOTE POWER NOT FACTORED IN AS I BELIEVE THE OTHER FIGURES TO BE VERY CONSERVATIVE AND THE SYSTEM ISN'T EXPANDED DURING THE PERIOD WHICH WOULD ALTER THE EQUATION GREATLY. FURTHERMORE I'M SUPPOSING THAT PEOPLE WILL KEEP ADDING # AT A STABLE RATE.

http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator.php

1500 M#/s price 11USD (not too far off I believe)

11 days @ present  dif     = 96.69$
11 days @ prev dif x 1.08= 88.95$
11 days @ prev dif x 1.08= 81.84$
11 days @ prev dif x 1.08= 75.29$
11 days @ prev dif x 1.08= 69.27$
11 days @ prev dif x 1.08= 63.72$
11 days @ prev dif x 1.08= 58.63$
11 days @ prev dif x 1.08= 53.94$
11 days @ prev dif x 1.08= 49.62$
11 days @ prev dif x 1.08= 45.65$
11 days @ prev dif x 1.08= 42.00$
11 days @ prev dif x 1.08= 38.64$
11 days @ prev dif x 1.08= 35.54$
11 days @ prev dif x 1.08= 32.71$
11 days @ prev dif x 1.08= 30.09$
11 days @ prev dif x 1.08= 27.68$
11 days @ prev dif x 1.08= 25.47$
11 days @ prev dif x 1.08= 23.43$
11 days @ prev dif x 1.08= 21.56$

So 209 days in you'll have a return of roughly 960.72 USD PROVIDED THAT

A) You can't clock super hard. Going up to 1600M#/s should put you @ 1045 USD

B) Difficulty increases don't slow down. A drop to a 4% average increase would put you @ 1304.25 USD

C) Prices remain at this low level. An increase to 12 would put you @ 1048.13 USD

D) You don't add a card after 2 weeks (and yes they will all fit in the case even 6 and stay cool using extenders this is a massive full tower). Adding a card would put you @ 1154 USD minus 150USD for the extra card.

This is how I calculate if it's worth the risk. These are just a small number of factors that may positively affect the outcome of your investment if you start combining these factors to lesser degrees it's fairly clear that an ROI of 5-6 months is possible.



skyhigh
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August 05, 2011, 09:46:34 PM
 #50

I couldn't bother to read the whole thread. Did anyone told OP that he is a clueless newb ?  Total hashrate didn't fall, network is still at 14 Th. What he and people like him are watching is wrong data on bitcoincharts.com. They are showing how lucky the network is at solving the blocks.

I hope you don't really think that network fall from 14 Th down to 11 Th or whatever it was due to miners leaving. When network is lucky bitcoincharts.com will show 16 Th when variance is not on our side it will show 12 Th.
pennytrader
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August 05, 2011, 09:58:10 PM
 #51

I couldn't bother to read the whole thread. Did anyone told OP that he is a clueless newb ?

+1. So are some people here who can't read or figure out some simple math.

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August 06, 2011, 05:59:08 AM
 #52

Can't people go read the description in the pool websites and figure the number out themselves?

Luck considerably slowed down the network hashing rate (as shown in the luck numbers I posted earlier. And if you can't figure them out. I can't help.) Now deepbit is lucky (from unluck 17% to luck 17%, hopefully now you can understand!), and the instant difficulty is going back up http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php

It isn't luck, if you look at that site, the instant hashrate is now calculated over completely different blocks than yesterday, 139689-139809, and it is still at 94% of difficulty.

Kermee
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August 06, 2011, 06:11:34 AM
 #53

http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate

1889033.33366549

With 1311 blocks left.  I don't think the total hash rate dropped off too much, but it's completely leveled off for sure.

Cheers,
Kermee

pennytrader
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August 06, 2011, 06:26:06 AM
 #54

Can't people go read the description in the pool websites and figure the number out themselves?

Luck considerably slowed down the network hashing rate (as shown in the luck numbers I posted earlier. And if you can't figure them out. I can't help.) Now deepbit is lucky (from unluck 17% to luck 17%, hopefully now you can understand!), and the instant difficulty is going back up http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php

It isn't luck, if you look at that site, the instant hashrate is now calculated over completely different blocks than yesterday, 139689-139809, and it is still at 94% of difficulty.

That is based on the recent 120 blocks, which IS still luck related (for 20 hrs). I'd trust more on the blockexplorer estimate.

please donate to 1P3m2resGCP2o2sFX324DP1mfqHgGPA8BL
Xephan
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August 06, 2011, 10:37:53 AM
 #55

NOTE POWER NOT FACTORED IN AS I BELIEVE THE OTHER FIGURES TO BE VERY CONSERVATIVE AND THE SYSTEM ISN'T EXPANDED DURING THE PERIOD WHICH WOULD ALTER THE EQUATION GREATLY. FURTHERMORE I'M SUPPOSING THAT PEOPLE WILL KEEP ADDING # AT A STABLE RATE.

http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator.php

It depends on how significant is power costs in your area that's why. In my area, operating costs is between 60~80% of BTC value depending which way things move. So for me, it's not worthwhile to invest in new hardware.

As your number show, the returns are dwindling, and if prices go up, difficulty will increase faster as it becomes more profitable, causing people to jump in. So I don't think there's actually enough buffer to completely discount power unless you are getting really cheap power.

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oakpacific
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August 06, 2011, 12:02:16 PM
 #56

I couldn't bother to read the whole thread. Did anyone told OP that he is a clueless newb ?  Total hashrate didn't fall, network is still at 14 Th. What he and people like him are watching is wrong data on bitcoincharts.com. They are showing how lucky the network is at solving the blocks.

I hope you don't really think that network fall from 14 Th down to 11 Th or whatever it was due to miners leaving. When network is lucky bitcoincharts.com will show 16 Th when variance is not on our side it will show 12 Th.
It has been like this for many days, I have recorded long term trend (after removing the fluctuations of course)for that. We can wait to see if the high hashrate you predict will reappear in a reasonable timeframe.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
skyhigh
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August 06, 2011, 01:22:41 PM
 #57

Total hashrate is stable or if you want it your way it dropped from exactly 14.00 Th down to 13.80 Th, reason is a big price move lower from $14.00 area down to $10.00.

What I was referring in my previous post was that your title and your info is super misleading, reason you were most likely watching the numbers on bitcoincharts.com where they have a wrong formula to calculate total network hashrate. This has been discussed already in the past in other threads.

I do agree that we are dropping for the last few days but so far nothing major if you consider huge price move and the fact that it's summer in the northern hemisphere. Next difficulty will most likely stay within -+3%
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August 06, 2011, 01:40:15 PM
 #58

So, it looks like we're getting ever closer to the average US cost of production break even point.
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