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Author Topic: Doomsday bears have their own interests in mind.  (Read 2468 times)
BTC Economist
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August 06, 2011, 04:08:04 PM
 #21

There is really no sense in holding at this point.  Even if you want bitcoin to succeed, the smart thing to do would be to unload your bitcoins to take what profit you have left and let the price reach an equilibrium point.  Once it gets there, it will be much more stable and could potentially set on a reasonable long term growth trajectory.

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grod
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August 06, 2011, 04:09:11 PM
 #22

I agree with that post, with one caveat.  I'll also look at buying back with the funds I made selling my mined coins as soon as they were available *IF* the difficulty continues going up at the current rate.

If we have a nosedive in difficulty to 1/4 of current levels over the next 2 months and the used card market is flooded with 5 series hardware then $6 may not be a good time to get back in with cash.  It may or may not be a good time to get back in with hardware.  

A lot of this depends on the 7 series and/or availability of the standalone ASIC miner in the October timeframe.  We may see a selloff as people finance more efficient rigs in order to be competitive.

6990s are once again available on tigerdirect http://www.tigerdirect.com/applications/SearchTools/item-details.asp?EdpNo=55285&CatId=7005.  This tells me members of the BTC community are becoming more cautious and realistic with their fiat money.

skyhigh
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August 06, 2011, 04:40:14 PM
 #23

grod, I think you should be more realistic about difficulty. It simply can't drop to 1/4 over the next 2 months. Well it can but that would be an Armageddon. Price would basically plummet. If miners would leave network in such a huge numbers, network would be temporarily doomed. My initial entry would change or be on hold.

I do agree that with this massive sudden price drop we have witnessed in the last 5 days, difficulty will stop going up and might even drop for a few re-targets. But this drops won't be anything major. I'm expecting -3% difficulty drop at the most for this re-target and maybe next. After that miners will get used to a new price range and we will go back to business as usual.
grod
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August 06, 2011, 05:15:53 PM
 #24

grod, I think you should be more realistic about difficulty. It simply can't drop to 1/4 over the next 2 months. Well it can but that would be an Armageddon. Price would basically plummet. If miners would leave network in such a huge numbers, network would be temporarily doomed. My initial entry would change or be on hold.

Yes, it is a doomsday scenario.  But you are also unrealistic in that it simply can not happen.  There is a 2 week lag time in the price to difficulty feedback loop, but once started it may work the same way as the positive feedback loop.  People still have the option of selling their mining hardware.

We've seen this with namecoin.  Once the hashing power starts dropping it falls like a rock, and price follows.  Miners and traders alike project weeks to months into the future and price accordingly.

In any event, we're in violent agreement.  If there is no change in current difficulty $6 is also my bottom call.  If we see a negative feedback loop all bets are off re: the bottom.  Just like going long through buying bitcoins everything depends on how much faith the current community has in the long term future of bitcoin.
NetTecture
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August 06, 2011, 05:40:40 PM
 #25

I think you see this too simple. The namecoin example is a fallacy beccause this was artivficially created by bitcoin miners switchin over Wink We likely will see a decline (say to 1.5 million) over 1-4 periods. It wont be an exodus - miners have nowhere to go. The namecoin / bitcoin item was different.

I look forward to more bitcoin mining - and may start buying them around 5 EUR each.
grod
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August 06, 2011, 06:15:18 PM
 #26

We're argued this in a different thread.  Miners absolutely have places to go -- a 5830 can be sold for about $100 today.  Call it $80 for a fast sale.  Anyone buying intelligently will have rented one for $20 over 2-3 months.  Bitcoiners are still a tiny portion of the GPU market, those cards are still viable for gaming today.

Then instead of mining sit on that money until both difficulty and price tank over 2 months, re-enter by buying more efficient 7 series hardware.  First ones out, just like first ones in, will reap the greatest rewards using that strategy.

Sure, there will be some who mine at a loss and make it up in volume.  But that isn't a requirement.

And since it's probably faster to sell hardware than to buy it the down spiral may go just as quickly as the up one, if not more so.  Call it 6 weeks instead of 8 to get back to 400k difficulty.

I saw the first signs of this a month ago when one operation was trying to liquidate about a hundred 5830s + PCIe extenders for $150.  Not sure if they got that kind of prices, but if so it was a genius move.

osmosis
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August 06, 2011, 06:16:43 PM
 #27

All this bulls and bears stuff is bullshit. Most of doomsayers are either broke or they won't buy coins even if they get super cheap.

Smart investor/speculator that heard/joined bitcoin in its boom days, is probably waiting for the price to get as low as possible. Why would they pay premium if the trend is still lower.

Example of a person who is willing to risk $15k into bitcoins

buys 1k at $5
buys 1k at $4
buys 1k at $3
buys 1k at $2
buys 1k at $1

he / she now holds 5k at an average price $3 and has put $15k at risk. If bitcoins are worth 0.00 in the future he/she lost $15k and walks away. They were smart and knew their risk. This $15k won't hurt them as much as might hurt $500 someone else. If coins are ever worth more in the future, he /she will eventually profit. Simple as that. Everything else all this bears/bulls  you are a troll or whatever else forum name calling is a pointless background noise.

What about the other side of the bull possibilities?

Bought 1k at $30 expecting $100 in August
Bought 1k at $24 expecting $40 in September
Bought 1k at $20 expecting $30 soon
Bought 1k at $17.5 'dollar averaging' down
Bought 1k at $15 because the price was stable
Bought 1k at $14 because this has to be the bottom
Bought 1k at $12 because it's a buying opportunity relative to $14
Bought 1k at $13.90 because the train is finally leaving the station
Bought 1k at $11 becase it's a better buying opportunity
Bought 1k at $9 because it can't go any lower, it's just mean bears talking BTC down wanting my bitcoins cheap
Bought 1k at $7.70 because I've already got a bunch at stake
.
.
.
Now I have a buttload of bitcoins at an average price well north of $10, and them trading at $1.  That's much worse than your scenario where the trader has 5k coins at 300% current market price.  At which point all the other bulls also out of money, looking for 1000%+ to break even and miners still producing around 7200 coins a day whether the difficulty is 10 million or 10 thousand.

Now granted, this is a pretty doom and gloom scenario, but IMO at least as likely as the pie in the sky bull one based on nothing but hope and prayer.



I dont feel so alone now.
grod
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August 06, 2011, 06:30:19 PM
 #28

I dont feel so alone now.

Actually, those are all price points I sold coins at over the past 2 months.  Last ones were at 10.90, and unfortunately I've received another 2 since then. Sad

I was just putting myself in the shoes of the OTHER counter party to my trades and projecting future ones.  I find that "what would I do in their shoes?" exercise valuable in the past.
Vladimir
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August 06, 2011, 08:37:14 PM
 #29

Within 3 years 1 BTC goes either to 0$ or to 10k$. Just store it somewhere secure and take a break from listening to all this noise. Get back in 2014 or so.

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grod
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August 06, 2011, 08:54:40 PM
 #30

Within 3 years 1 BTC goes either to 0$ or to 10k$. Just store it somewhere secure and take a break from listening to all this noise. Get back in 2014 or so.


Or, listen to the noise, trade, and turn that 1 BTC into several over that time period, no matter what the valuation in 2014.  Heck, if you're into 0 or 10,000, you could get that out of your system faster with a trip to Vegas.

Buy & hold strategy as sucked a bunch of money out of people's accounts during the last decade.  I was happy to hold dollars from 2000 until 2009, and content to hold income producing real estate since then. 

You're welcome to subscribe to the bagholder credo, of course, but you must pardon me if I don't.

osmosis
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August 06, 2011, 09:09:31 PM
 #31

Within 3 years 1 BTC goes either to 0$ or to 10k$. Just store it somewhere secure and take a break from listening to all this noise. Get back in 2014 or so.


Or, listen to the noise, trade, and turn that 1 BTC into several over that time period, no matter what the valuation in 2014.  Heck, if you're into 0 or 10,000, you could get that out of your system faster with a trip to Vegas.

Buy & hold strategy as sucked a bunch of money out of people's accounts during the last decade.  I was happy to hold dollars from 2000 until 2009, and content to hold income producing real estate since then.  

You're welcome to subscribe to the bagholder credo, of course, but you must pardon me if I don't.

Do you have any interest in BTC succeeding in the long term, or are you just here to take short term profits from the expense of others?
muyoso
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August 06, 2011, 09:28:42 PM
 #32


They are trying to scare you out of the market..get you to sell at $9 thinking that it will go down to $5.
But after you sell, they will buy it, it will go up..then keep going up.
The worst is behind us.

Anyone who was being responsible knew that you shouldnt have your coins on mybitcoin.com.  I feel sorry for their loss, wish it wasnt so, and wish them the best. But there is no excuse for what they did, it was their own fault, and not a flaw in bitcoin. This situation was a known outcome. As a community we have all learned from it.

The market will continue with your regularly scheduled program.



Well you look like an ass now don't you.  Current price: 7.31USD/BTC

I drink it up!
osmosis
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August 06, 2011, 09:34:23 PM
 #33

Well you look like an ass now don't you.  Current price: 7.31USD/BTC

They are trying to scare you out of the market..get you to sell at $9 thinking that it will go down to $5.
But after you sell, they will buy it, it will go up..then keep going up.

Looks like they are succeeding.
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